Ecosystem Collapse and Climate Change PDF
Preview Ecosystem Collapse and Climate Change
Ecological Studies 241 Josep G. Canadell Robert B. Jackson Editors Ecosystem Collapse and Climate Change Ecological Studies Analysis and Synthesis Volume 241 SeriesEditors JosepG.Canadell CSIROOceansandAtmosphere,Canberra,ACT,Australia SandraDíaz NationalUniversityofCórdoba,Córdoba,Argentina GerhardHeldmaier UniversityofMarburg,Marburg,Germany RobertB.Jackson StanfordUniversity,Stanford,CA,USA DelphisF.Levia UniversityofDelaware,Newark,DE,USA Ernst-DetlefSchulze MaxPlanckInstituteforBiogeochemistry,Jena,Germany UlrichSommer GEOMAR|HelmholtzCentreforOceanResearchKiel,Kiel,Germany DavidA.Wardle NanyangTechnologicalUniversity,Singapore,Singapore EcologicalStudiesisSpringer’spremierbookseriestreatingallaspectsofecology. Thesevolumes,eitherauthoredoreditedcollections,appearseveraltimeseachyear. They are intended to analyze and synthesize our understanding of natural and managed ecosystems and their constituent organisms and resources at different scales from the biosphere to communities, populations, individual organisms and molecular interactions. Many volumes constitute case studies illustrating and synthesizing ecological principles for an intended audience of scientists, students, environmental managers and policy experts. Recent volumes address biodiversity, global change, landscape ecology, air pollution, ecosystem analysis, microbial ecology,ecophysiologyandmolecularecology. Moreinformationaboutthisseriesathttp://www.springer.com/series/86 (cid:129) Josep G. Canadell Robert B. Jackson Editors Ecosystem Collapse and Climate Change Editors JosepG.Canadell RobertB.Jackson CSIROOceansandAtmosphere StanfordUniversity Canberra,Australia Stanford,CA,USA ISSN0070-8356 ISSN2196-971X (electronic) EcologicalStudies ISBN978-3-030-71329-4 ISBN978-3-030-71330-0 (eBook) https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-71330-0 #SpringerNatureSwitzerlandAG2021 Thisworkissubjecttocopyright.AllrightsarereservedbythePublisher,whetherthewholeorpartofthe materialisconcerned,specificallytherightsoftranslation,reprinting,reuseofillustrations,recitation, broadcasting,reproductiononmicrofilmsorinanyotherphysicalway,andtransmissionorinformation storageandretrieval,electronicadaptation,computersoftware,orbysimilarordissimilarmethodology nowknownorhereafterdeveloped. Theuseofgeneraldescriptivenames,registerednames,trademarks,servicemarks,etc.inthispublication doesnotimply,evenintheabsenceofaspecificstatement,thatsuchnamesareexemptfromtherelevant protectivelawsandregulationsandthereforefreeforgeneraluse. The publisher, the authors, and the editorsare safeto assume that the adviceand informationin this bookarebelievedtobetrueandaccurateatthedateofpublication.Neitherthepublishernortheauthorsor theeditorsgiveawarranty,expressedorimplied,withrespecttothematerialcontainedhereinorforany errorsoromissionsthatmayhavebeenmade.Thepublisherremainsneutralwithregardtojurisdictional claimsinpublishedmapsandinstitutionalaffiliations. ThisSpringerimprintispublishedbytheregisteredcompanySpringerNatureSwitzerlandAG. Theregisteredcompanyaddressis:Gewerbestrasse11,6330Cham,Switzerland Preface Concerns about climate-related “collapse” of ecosystems are increasing, including thepotentialirreversiblelossofhabitatsandspecies.California’srecordfireyearof 2020 and high-intensity fires caused unusual mortality among giant sequoias (Sequoiadendron giganteum), raising questions about the preservation of these ancient organisms. Likewise, diverse and unconnected terrestrial and marine ecosystems in Australia experienced simultaneous and abrupt collapse in response to the strong El Niño in 2015–2016, on top of long-term warming trends. Thosechangestriggeredthequestionastowhetherwewereseeingpredictedfuture climate impacts now with the rapid transformation and loss of ecosystems as we knowthem. In this volume, we, and the contributing authors, document cases of ecosystem collapse around the world. In each case, the authors believe that climate change is playingadominantor,atleast,contributingroleintheecosystem’sapparentdemise, sometimes interacting with other pressures. The word “collapse” is challenging to applybecauseinmany caseswe donotknow(i.e.,itistooearlytotell)whether a givenecosystemmayrecoverthroughtime.Inothercases,however,theecosystem’s prognosis is poor and the chance of recovery to its initial state appears unlikely, particularlysointhefaceofthecontinuingintensificationofclimatechange. Ourbookcoversthreebroadlatitudinalregionsencompassingmanybiometypes, including(1) polar and boreal ecosystems, (2) temperate and semiarid ecosystems, and(3)tropicalandtemperatecoastalecosystems.Examplesofecosystemcollapse inpolarandborealsystemsincludeanalpineecosystemonsub-AntarcticMacquarie Island,approximately650kmsouthwestofNewZealand,wherewaterstressfroma changing climate is interacting with a novel pathogen. The volume also examines forestcollapseinsouthernSiberia,wherewarmingandalengtheningfireseasonare leading to post-fire recruitment failure and the large-scale replacement of boreal forestswithgrasslands. Studies in temperate and semiarid ecosystems include the rapid transition of a relict alpine ecosystem in Tasmania. There, fire killed a paleo-endemic ecosystem characterizedbytheslow-growingconifer,Athrotaxiscupressoides.Otherchapters examine forest dieback and forest transitions to grassland and shrublands, with interactions among droughts, heatwaves, and insect outbreaks contributing to the v vi Preface observedtransitionsinplaceslikewesternUSA,NorthenAfricaandtheMediterra- neanregion. Examplesofcoastalecosystemcollapsesincludesynchronousmangrovedieback along a 1500-km coastal mangrove ecosystem in northeastern Australia; mass bleaching and mortality in coral reefs of the Great Barrier Reef and Mediterranean Sea; the local extinction of 100 km of kelp forest in western Australia and its replacement by turf algae, attributable to marine heat waves and elevated back- groundoceantemperatures; andthecollapseof~1300km2ofseagrassecosystems attributabletoamarineheatwavein2010–2011. The changes observed by the authors often go far beyond the biotic shifts described here. Seagrass and mangrove ecosystem experienced sediment erosion and depleted carbon stocks, and permafrost-driven changes in high latitude ecosystems are rapidly changing emissions of greenhouse gases and carbon stores insoilsandvegetation. One goal of this book is to raise awareness of the transitions that are already occurringthroughclimatechangetoday,andparticularlythosetransitionsassociated with abrupt dynamics in response to one of the most important manifestations of climate change: the increasing intensity and sometimes frequency of climate variability and extremes. Some of the transitions might be critical, in so far that theymaybeirreversibleorsignalthebeginningofanewlevelofabruptchangesthat will ultimately lead to an irreversible outcome. Finally, we hope that by documenting such changes, increased awareness will help scientists and managers restorelostordegradedecosystems,andwherepossible,theirspeciesandecosystem functioning. In other instances, there may be opportunities to assist in a guided transitiontowardmoreresilientecosystemsinthefaceofrapidchanges. Canberra,Australia JosepG.Canadell Stanford,CA RobertB.Jackson Contents 1 EcosystemCollapseandClimateChange:AnIntroduction. . . . . . . 1 JosepG.CanadellandRobertB.Jackson PartI PolarandBorealEcosystems 2 EcosystemCollapseonaSub-AntarcticIsland. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13 DanaM.Bergstrom,CatherineR.Dickson,DavidJ.Baker, JennieWinham,PatriciaM.Selkirk,andMelodieA.McGeoch 3 PermafrostThawinNorthernPeatlands:RapidChanges inEcosystemandLandscapeFunctions. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . 27 DavidOlefeldt,LiamHeffernan,MiriamC.Jones, A.BrittaK.Sannel,ClaireC.Treat,andMerrittR.Turetsky 4 Post-fireRecruitmentFailureasaDriverofForest toNon-forestEcosystemShiftsinBorealRegions. . . . . . . . . . . . . . 69 ArdenBurrell,ElenaKukavskaya,RobertBaxter,QiaoqiSun, andKirstenBarrett 5 APaleo-perspectiveonEcosystemCollapseinBorealNorth America. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 101 SergePayette PartII TemperateandSemi-aridEcosystems 6 The2016TasmanianWildernessFires:FireRegimeShiftsand ClimateChangeinaGondwananBiogeographicRefugium. . . . . . 133 DavidM.J.S.Bowman,DarioRodriguez-Cubillo, andLyndaD.Prior 7 Climate-InducedGlobalForestShiftsduetoHeatwave-Drought. . . 155 FranciscoLloretandEnricBatllori vviiii viii Contents 8 ExtremeEventsTriggerTerrestrialandMarineEcosystemCollapses intheSouthwesternUSAandSouthwesternAustralia. . . . . . . . . . 187 KatinkaX.Ruthrof,JosephB.Fontaine,DavidD.Breshears, JasonP.Field,andCraigD.Allen PartIII TropicalandTemperateCoastalEcosystems 9 ProcessesandFactorsDrivingChangeinMangroveForests: AnEvaluationBasedontheMassDiebackEventinAustralia’s GulfofCarpentaria. .. . . . . . .. . . . . .. . . . . . .. . . . . . .. . . . . .. . 221 NormanC.Duke,LindsayB.Hutley,JockR.Mackenzie, andDamienBurrows 10 RecurrentMass-BleachingandthePotentialforEcosystem CollapseonAustralia’sGreatBarrierReef. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 265 MorganS.Pratchett,ScottF.Heron,CamilleMellin, andGraemeS.Cumming 11 SlidingTowardtheCollapseofMediterraneanCoastalMarine RockyEcosystems. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 291 JoaquimGarrabou,Jean-BaptisteLedoux,NathanielBensoussan, DanielGómez-Gras,andCristinaLinares 12 MarineHeatwaveDrivesCollapseofKelpForestsinWestern Australia. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 325 ThomasWernberg 13 ImpactofMarineHeatwavesonSeagrassEcosystems. . . . . .. . . . . 345 OscarSerrano,ArianeArias-Ortiz,CarlosM.Duarte, GaryA.Kendrick,andPaulS.Lavery Index. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 365 1 Ecosystem Collapse and Climate Change: An Introduction Josep G. Canadell and Robert B. Jackson Abstract Concernsaboutclimate-related“collapse”ofecosystemsaregrowing,including theirreversiblelossofhabitats,species,andcriticalecosystemfunctions.Diverse terrestrial and marine ecosystems have experienced collapse-like dynamics throughout the world, particularly over the past decade. This book addresses the over-arching question: “Are we seeing predicted “future” climate impacts now,withtherapidtransformationandlossofecosystemsasweknowthem?” Ineachcaseofecosystemcollapsedocumentedhere,theauthorsbelievethat climate change is playing a dominant or contributing role to the ecosystem’s apparent demise, often interacting with other pressures. The book covers three latitudinalregions:(1)polarandborealecosystems,suchastheimpactsofwater stresswithanovelpathogenonalpinevegetationmosaicsinAntarcticMacquarie Island,foresttransitionstoshrublandsandgrasslandsduetointeractionsbetween temperatureandfireinSouthernSiberiaandNorthAmerica,andrapidchangesin vegetationandecosystemfunctionsinthepermafrostregionasthawingisrapidly taking place; (2) temperate and semi-arid ecosystems, including the impacts of fire on a paleo-endemic alpine ecosystem in Tasmania, and the interactions between drought and heatwaves in forests in the Mediterranean, Western USA, and elsewhere; (3) tropical and temperate coastal ecosystems, including the J.G.Canadell(*) GlobalCarbonProject,ClimateScienceCentre,CSIROOceansandAtmosphere,Canberra,ACT, Australia e-mail:[email protected] R.B.Jackson(*) DepartmentofEarthSystemScience,WoodsInstitutefortheEnvironment,andPrecourtInstitute forEnergy,StanfordUniversity,Stanford,CA,USA e-mail:[email protected] #SpringerNatureSwitzerlandAG2021 1 J.G.Canadell,R.B.Jackson(eds.),EcosystemCollapseandClimateChange, EcologicalStudies241,https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-71330-0_1
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