Economy, Retail & Beer - Arena International

45 Pages·2012·3 MB·English

Economy, Retail & Beer
How the economy shapes retail channel development
and product ranges
By Matthias Queck
Research Director
Copenhagen, 29 May 2012
A Service
Contents
1. Economic Development
2. Retail Evolution
3. Big Plans for Small Stores
4. Smaller Plans for Bigger Stores
5. Polarisation, Discounting & Private Label
6. Summary
2
About Planet Retail
3
1. Economic Development
2. Retail Evolution
4
X1 Key Trends – Economic Development
Europe continues to be divided economically:
 Positive outlook for countries benefiting from
emerging markets growth and featuring stable
domestic economy.
 Difficult outlook for countries struck by public and
household debt crises (UK, Ireland, Spain,
Greece, Portugal), with most problems coming
from the inside. Several countries will lose a full
decade.
 Consumer confidence is key in countries with high
dependence on domestic consumption (UK,
Portugal).
 Structural adaptations in retail will be accordingly
deep & fast there.
 But not all structural change in retail is economy-
led. Further drivers are demographic trends and
channel development.
5
X1 Key Trends – Economic Development
World economy powered by emerging markets growth.
GDP: Real Growth, 2005-2015 (%)
10
8
6
4
2
0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
-2
-4
-6
Advanced economies Emerging and developing economies
Source: IMF
6
X1 Key Trends – Economic Development
World economy powered by emerging markets growth.
GDP: Real Growth, 2005-2015 (%)
15
13
11
9
7
5
3
1
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
-1
-3
-5
China India Brazil United States Euro area
Source: IMF
7
X1 Key Trends – Economic Development
The Olympic Games 2012, shouldn’t they have gone to Greece this year again?
Consumer Spending: Real Growth, 2000-2015 (%)
28.0
Finland
23.0
Germany
Greece
UK
18.0
13.0
8.0
3.0
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
-2.0
-7.0
8
Source: IMF, Planet Retail
X1 Key Trends – Economic Development
Real growth index shows how deep the Euro crisis really is.
GDP: Real Growth Index, 2007-2015
(2007 = 100)
110.0
100.0
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
90.0
Greece
UK
Portugal
Germany
80.0
Source: IMF, Planet Retail
9
X2 Key Trends – Retail Evolution
#1 Carrefour and #2 Schwarz Group (Lidl & Kaufland) are swapping their
places this year not least due to the divestment of discounter Dia.
EUROPE: Top 10 Grocers by Banner Sales, 2006-2016f (EUR bn)
120
8 2006
.
8 2011
9
100
2016
n) 80 7.97 6.47 5.77 9.9 0 9.08
RUb 6 6 .56 8.4
E .0 6
( selaS rennaB 4600 3.64 6 3.93 3.84 1.64 6.64 4.84 6.63 2.54 6.94 8.63 6.34 2.05 2.63 1.24 2.25 8.92 7.83 3.94 5.6 9.92 1.43
2
20
0
Carrefour Schwarz Group Tesco Auchan Metro Group Edeka Aldi Rewe Group Leclerc ITM
(Intermarché)
Note: f - forecast; sorted by 2011 ranking.
Source: Planet Retail
10