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Preview Economics of the Labour Market: Unemployment and the Costs of Unemployment

Economics of the Labour Market Economics of the Labour Market Unemployment and the Costs of Unemployment P. N. (Raja) Junankar Honorary Professor, Industrial Relations Research Centre, UNSW Australia, Emeritus Professor, Western Sydney University and Research Fellow, IZA, Bonn, Germany ECONOMICS OF THE LABOUR MARKET: UNEMPLOYMENT AND THE COSTS OF UNEMPLOYMENT Editorial matter, selection and introduction © P. N. (Raja) Junankar, 2016 Foreword © G. C. Harcourt, 2016 Chapter 2.1 © Macmillan Publishers Ltd, 2008; Chapter 2.2 © Macmillan Publishers Ltd, 2008; Chapter 2.3 ©Macmillan Publishers Ltd, 2008; Chapter 2.4 © Macmillan Publishers Ltd, 2008; Chapter 2.5 © Routledge, 2004; Chapter 2.6 © Taylor and Francis, 2003; Chapter 3.1 © Taylor and Francis, 1987; Chapter 3.2 © Palgrave Macmillan Ltd, 1987; Chapter 3.3 © SAGE Publication, 2000; Chapter 3.4 © Australian National University, 1992; Chapter 3.5 ©SAGE Publications, 2015; Chapter 3.6 © Taylor and Francis, 1998; Chapter 4.1 © Oxford University Press, 1981; Chapter 4.2 © The Royal Economic Society, 1984; Chapter 4.3 ©Australian National University, 1991; Chapter 4.4 © John Wiley & Sons, Inc., 1991; Chapter 4.5 © John Wiley & Sons, Inc., 1999; Chapter 4.5 © John Wiley & Sons, Inc., 1999; Chapter 4.6 © Cambridge University Press, 2000; Chapter 4.7 © John Wiley & Sons, Inc., 1985; Chapter 5.1 © National Institute of Labour Studies, 1992; Chapter 5.2 © SAGE Publications, 1998; Chapter 6.1 © Palgrave Macmillan Ltd, 1989; Chapter 6.2 © Economic Planning Advisory Council, 1989; Chapter 6.3 © Oxford University Press, 1991 All rights reserved. No reproduction, copy or transmission of this publication may be made without written permission. No portion of this publication may be reproduced, copied or transmitted save with written permission. In accordance with the provisions of the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988, or under the terms of any licence permitting limited copying issued by the Copyright Licensing Agency, Saffron House, 6–10 Kirby Street, London EC1N 8TS. Any person who does any unauthorized act in relation to this publication may be liable to criminal prosecution and civil claims for damages. First published 2016 by PALGRAVE MACMILLAN The author has asserted their right to be identified as the author of this work in accordance with the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988. Palgrave Macmillan in the UK is an imprint of Macmillan Publishers Limited, registered in England, company number 785998, of Houndmills, Basingstoke, Hampshire RG21 6XS. Palgrave Macmillan in the US is a division of Nature America, Inc., One New York Plaza, Suite 4500 New York, NY 10004–1562. Palgrave Macmillan is the global academic imprint of the above companies and has companies and representatives throughout the world. Hardback ISBN: 978–1–137–55518–2 E-PUB ISBN: 978–1–137–55520–5 ISBN 978-1-137-55518-2 ISBN 978-1-137-55519-9 (eBook) DOI 10.1057/9781137555199 Distribution in the UK, Europe and the rest of the world is by Palgrave Macmillan®, a division of Macmillan Publishers Limited, registered in England, company number 785998, of Houndmills, Basingstoke, Hampshire RG21 6XS. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Names: Junankar, P. N., author. Title: Economics of the labour market : unemployment and the costs of unemployment / P. N. (Raja) Junankar. Description: Houndmills, Basingstoke, Hampshire ; New York, NY : Palgrave Macmillan, 2015. | Includes index. Identifiers: LCCN 2015033261 | ISBN 978-1-137-55518-2 (hardback) Subjects: LCSH: Labor market. | Unemployment. Classification: LCC HD5706 .J86 2015 | DDC 331.12—dc23 LC record available at http://lccn.loc.gov/2015033261 A catalogue record for this book is available from the Library of Congress. A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library. Typeset by MPS Limited, Chennai, India. To My wife Susie Junankar, my daughter Kamini and my son Simon Contents List of Figures and Tables ix Foreword by G.C. Harcourt xx Preface and Acknowledgements xxi 1 Introduction 1 2 The Labour Market 21 2.1 Labor Economics 23 2.2 Labor Demand 28 2.3 Labor Supply 33 2.4 Labor Force Participation 38 2.5 Employment and Unemployment 42 2.6 Estimating the Social Rate of Return to Education for Indigenous Australians 47 3 Youth Labour Markets 75 3.1 The British Youth Labour Market in Crisis 77 3.2 Relative Wages and the Youth Labour Market 102 3.3 The Youth Labour Market: Anecdotes, Fables and Evidence 128 3.4 The Dynamics of Youth Unemployment: An Analysis of Recurrent Unemployment 152 3.5 The Impact of the Global Financial Crisis on Youth Unemployment 173 3.6 Choosy Youth or Unwanted Youth? A Survey of Unemployment 204 4 Unemployment 237 4.1 An Econometric Analysis of Unemployment in Great Britain, 1952–75 239 4.2 The Dynamics of Unemployment: Structural Change and Unemployment Flows 253 4.3 Perspectives on Australian Unemployment: The Impact of Wage Setting Institutions in the 1980s 261 4.4 Aboriginal Employment and Unemployment: An Overview 293 4.5 Unemployment in Australia: Models, Myths and Mysteries 308 4.6 Are Wage Cuts the Answer? Theory and Evidence 330 4.7 A Political Economy of Unemployment: Causes and Consequences 346 vii viii Contents 5 Long-Term Unemployment 359 5.1 Projections of Long-term Unemployment 361 5.2 Was Working Nation Working? 373 6 Costs of Unemployment 391 6.1 Unemployment in the European Community: Counting the Costs 393 6.2 The Costs of Unemployment in Australia 403 6.3 Unemployment and Mortality in England and Wales: A Preliminary Analysis 459 Index 474 List of Figures and Tables Figures 1.1 Unemployment rates in the OECD (%) 5 3.1.1 Youth employment: males (percentages) 81 3.1.2 Youth employment: females (percentages) 82 3.1.3 Youth unemployment: males (percentages) 83 3.1.4 Youth unemployment: females (percentages) 84 3.1.5 Youth unemployment: males (thousands) 85 3.1.6 Youth unemployment: females (thousands) 86 3.1.7 Long-term youth unemployment (thousands) 87 3.1.8 Long-term youth unemployment (percentages) 88 3.1.9 Relative labour costs 93 3.1.10 Real earnings 94 3.1.11 Full-time manual employees earnings 96 3.1.12 Non-manual employees earnings 97 3.1.13 Real supplementary benefits 98 3.2.1 Relative labour costs: males 118 3.2.2 Relative labour costs: females 119 3.3.1 “Choices” at critical ages for Youths 130 3.3.2 Manufacturing, 3rd quarter 1986 to 2nd quarter 1997 143 3.3.3 Retail trade, 3rd quarter 1986 to 2nd quarter 1997 145 3.4.1 Duration of completed spells, 1985–88 160 3.4.2 Completed spells of unemployment, 1985–88 161 3.5.1 Unemployment rates, people aged 15–24, 20–24 and 25–64 years. Australia, 1978–2014 172 3.5.2 Part-time employment as a share of total employment (%), males aged 15–19 and 20–24 years, Australia 1997–2013 183 3.5.3 Part-time employment as a share of total employment (%), females aged 15–19 and 20–24 years, Australia, 1997–2013 184 ix x List of Figures and Tables 3.5.4 Casual employment as a share of full-time and part-time employment (%), males aged 15–19 and 20–24 years, Australia, 1992–2012 185 3.5.5 Casual employment as a share of full-time and part-time employment (%), females aged 15–19 and 20–24 years, Australia, 1992–2012 186 3.5.6 Unemployment rates (%), males and females aged 15–24 years, Australia, 1978–2012 187 3.5.7 Underemployment rates (%), males and females aged 15–24 years, Australia, 1978–2013 188 3.5.8 Labour underutilisation rates (%), males and females aged 15–24 years, Australia, 1978–2013 189 3.5.9 Youth employment-population ratios, Australia, 1978–2013 189 3.5.10 Labour force participation rates (%), males and females aged 15–24 years, Australia, 1978–2013 190 3.5.11 Incidence of male and female youth long-term unemployment (%), Australia, 1978–2012 190 3.5.12 GDP growth rate (% seasonally adjusted) Australia, 1978–2012 192 3.5.13 Full-time earnings ratios, males aged 15–19 and 20–24 years, Australia, 1990–2012 193 3.5.14 Part-time earnings ratios, males aged 15–19 and 20–24 years, Australia, 1990–2012 194 3.5.15 Full-time earnings ratios, females aged 15–19 and 20–24 years, Australia, 1990–2012 194 3.5.16 Part-time earnings ratios, females aged 15–19 and 20–24 years, Australia, 1990–2012 195 3.5.17 Male youth unemployment rates (%) and the real minimum wage (AUD), Australia, 1998–2013 195 3.5.18 Female youth unemployment rates and the real minimum wage, Australia, 1998–2012 196 3.5.19 Youth unemployment rates and replacement rates, Australia, 1978–2012 197 3.6.1 Unemployment rates by age, Indonesia, 1996 (%) 206 3.6.2 Unemployment rates by education, Indonesia, 1996 (%) 207 3.6.3 Unemployment by age and education, urban males, Indonesia, 1996 (%) 207 List of Figures and Tables xi 3.6.4 Unemployment by age and education, urban females, Indonesia, 1996 (%) 208 3.6.5 Trends in unemployment in Indonesia, 1976–96 (%) 220 3.6.6 Trends in unemployment by education among males and females aged 20–24, urban Indonesia, 1976–96 (%) 224 3.6.7 Trends in unemployment by education among males aged 25–29, urban Indonesia, 1976–94 (%) 225 4.1.1 Forward recursive regression: Cusum squared residuals normalised (LURATE C BENCN LCAPAC LAGCAP ILSET) 243 4.1.2 Forward recursive regression: coefficient on BENCN 244 4.1.3 Forward recursive regression: Cusum squared residuals normalised (LURATE C LRINC LRBEN LCAPAC LAGCAP ILSET) 245 4.1.4 Forward recursive regression: coefficient on LRBEN 246 4.2.1 Actual and fitted unemployment stocks, 1967 (III) to 1980 (II) 259 4.3.1 The aggregate Australian unemployment rate, 1966–89 262 4.3.2 The Accord and unemployment 263 4.3.3 Australian labour force and employment, 1966–89 264 4.3.4 Australian wage inflation, 1967–89 266 4.3.5 Australian real hourly earnings, 1966–89 267 4.3.6 Australian long term unemployment, 1978–89 268 4.3.7 Australian male proportions of the unemployed who were LTU, 1978–89 268 4.3.8 Australian female proportions of the unemployed who were LTU, 1978–89 269 4.4.1 Lewis Model, traditional and modern sectors 295 4.4.2 Full-time employment in the Australian public service (Index numbers: 1973 = 100.0) 301 4.5.1D Unemployment: stocks and flows 311 4.5.1 Male and female full time employment 1979–1998 (1983 = 100) 312 4.5.2 Male and female part time employment 1979–1998 (1983 = 100) 313 4.5.3 Male and female unemployment rates 1979–1998 313 4.5.4a Unemployment rates: with degrees and without post school qualifications 314 4.5.4b Unemployment rates: with and without post school qualifications 315

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