economics Economics 3rd edn.indb 1 11/02/2011 11:54 other economist books Guide to Analysing Companies Guide to Business Modelling Guide to Business Planning Guide to Economic Indicators Guide to the European Union Guide to Financial Management Guide to Financial Markets Guide to Hedge Funds Guide to Investment Strategy Guide to Management Ideas and Gurus Guide to Organisation Design Guide to Project Management Guide to Supply Chain Management Numbers Guide Style Guide Book of Obituaries Brands and Branding Business Consulting Business Strategy Buying Professional Services The City Coaching and Mentoring Doing Business in China Emerging Markets Headhunters and How to Use Them Mapping the Markets Marketing Organisation Culture Successful Strategy Execution The World of Business Directors: an A–Z Guide Economics: an A–Z Guide Investment: an A–Z Guide Negotiation: an A–Z Guide Pocket World in Figures Economics 3rd edn.indb 2 11/02/2011 11:54 economics Making Sense of the Modern Economy 3rd edition Edited by Saugato Datta Economics 3rd edn.indb 3 11/02/2011 11:54 THE ECONOMIST IN ASSOCIATION WITH PROFILE BOOKS LTD Published by Profile Books Ltd 3a Exmouth House Pine Street London ec1r 0jh www.profilebooks.com Copyright © The Economist Newspaper Ltd 1999, 2006, 2011 All rights reserved. Without limiting the rights under copyright reserved above, no part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in or introduced into a retrieval system, or transmitted, in any form or by any means (electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise), without the prior written permission of both the copyright owner and the publisher of this book. The greatest care has been taken in compiling this book. However, no responsibility can be accepted by the publishers or compilers for the accuracy of the information presented. Where opinion is expressed it is that of the author and does not necessarily coincide with the editorial views of The Economist Newspaper. While every effort has been made to contact copyright-holders of material produced or cited in this book, in the case of those it has not been possible to contact successfully, the author and publishers will be glad to make amendments in further editions. Typeset in EcoType by MacGuru Ltd [email protected] Printed in Great Britain by Clays, Bungay, Suffolk A CIP catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library ISBN 978 1 84668 458 6 (hardback) ISBN 978 1 84668 459 3 (paperback) The paper this book is printed on is certified by the © 1996 Forest Stewardship Council A.C. (FSC). It is ancient-forest friendly. The printer holds FSC chain of custody SGS-COC-2061 SGS-COC-2061 Economics 3rd edn.indb 4 11/02/2011 11:54 Contents Contributors vii Introduction ix PART 1 What economics is about 1 1 Debates about the basics 3 2 How economies grow 26 3 Macroeconomic management: fiscal and monetary policy 91 4 Microeconomics: the economics of everything 113 PART 2 The global economy 137 5 Before the storm: the forces at work 139 6 The global slump 160 7 Crisis-time economics 197 8 Recovery, repair and rebalancing 212 PART 3 Flaws and remedies: the future of economics 275 9 The failings of economics 277 10 An evolving field 300 11 Emerging economists 323 Index 332 Economics 3rd edn.indb 5 11/02/2011 11:54 Economics 3rd edn.indb 6 11/02/2011 11:54 contributors Matthew Bishop is The Economist’s US business editor. He contributed articles to Chapters 1, 9 and 10. Simon Cox is The Economist’s Asia economics editor. He contributed to Chapters 1, 2, 8 and 9, and wrote Chapter 11. Saugato Datta is The Economist’s economics correspondent. He wrote some of the articles in Chapters 1, 2, 3, 4, 6 and 10. He is also the editor of this book. Greg Ip is The Economist’s US economics editor. He contributed articles to Chapters 3 and 8. Patrick Lane is deputy business affairs editor at The Economist. He wrote parts of Chapters 1, 4 and 10. Zanny Minton-Beddoes is The Economist’s economics editor. She wrote some of the articles in Chapters 2, 3, 6, 7, 8 and 9. John O’Sullivan is Britain economics editor at The Economist. He contributed to Chapters 4, 7 and 8 John Parker is The Economist’s globalisation editor. He contributed to Chapters 2 and 10. John Smutniak was economics correspondent at The Economist. Chapter 10 includes an article written by him. Henry Tricks is The Economist’s Tokyo bureau chief. Chapter 8 includes an article written by him. Economics 3rd edn.indb 7 11/02/2011 11:54 viii EconoMicS Paul Wallace is The Economist’s European economics editor. He contributed to Chapter 10. Pam Woodall is senior economics writer at The Economist. Articles she wrote are part of Chapters 1, 2, 5 and 8. Economics 3rd edn.indb 8 11/02/2011 11:54 introduction Discussions about economic affairs have acquired a rare immediacy in the aftermath of the worst global recession since the Great Depres- sion. After several years of robust global growth, what began as a meltdown in America’s housing market developed first into a deep financial crisis and eventually into a fully fledged global recession. Output shrank, trade collapsed, industrial production fell off a cliff, and many millions of people around the world found themselves out of work. For a while, the world economy seemed in danger of ending up in a slump like that of the 1930s. That it did not was largely the result of government intervention on a massive scale. All this has ensured that the minutiae of fiscal and monetary policy no longer seem impossibly arcane or far removed from daily life, and debates about economic policy have challenged many deeply held beliefs. Every week, The Economist wades into these waters with its mix of reportage, analysis and opinion. Making use of the best evidence available and thinking matters through from first principles, its writers take a stand on the issues of the moment. While the impetus for the articles the newspaper publishes is usually found in the news of the week, many of the things that provoke The Economist’s writers to enter the fray are also questions – or aspects of questions – of endur- ing importance. This means that much of what is published in the newspaper remains interesting well beyond the precise context in which it was originally written. Such are the articles collected in this book, which seeks to provide curious readers with a sort of guided tour of the many areas to which economists apply the tools of their trade. Some of these are recognis- ably the provinces of economics: fiscal and monetary policy, ways to Economics 3rd edn.indb 9 11/02/2011 11:54 x EconoMicS promote economic growth, or how to measure a country’s standard of living. Many of the articles concern the roots and effects of the global economic crisis of 2008–09, the defining economic event of the first decade of the 21st century. Others explore the challenges that economic policymakers face in the years ahead as they struggle to kick start growth in places where it is still sluggish or deal with imbal- ances in the global economy. Yet others discuss issues that may strike the reader, at least at first, as “not quite economics”. Why do people give money to charity? What are the causes and consequences of the all-too-familiar human tendency to put things off for “later”? Is politically slanted reporting a sign of a dysfunctional news media? What determines how much prostitutes are paid? All these turn out to be areas where the tools of economic analysis have something useful to say. The answers that economists have provided to the wide range of questions they have turned their attention to may not always convince, but they rarely fail to provoke discussion and debate. Ultimately, economics’ greatest utility lies not so much in its answers to particular questions, but rather in its providing a coher- ent framework that can be used to think about a vast variety of issues. This book opens a window into this enormous versatility. Economics 3rd edn.indb 10 11/02/2011 11:54