Economic Cycles in Emerging and Advanced Countries: Synchronization, International Spillovers and the Decoupling Hypothesis PDF
Preview Economic Cycles in Emerging and Advanced Countries: Synchronization, International Spillovers and the Decoupling Hypothesis
Contributions to Economics Antonio Pesce Economic Cycles in Emerging and Advanced Countries Synchronization, International Spillovers and the Decoupling Hypothesis Contributions to Economics More information about this series at http://www.springer.com/series/1262 Antonio Pesce Economic Cycles in Emerging and Advanced Countries Synchronization, International Spillovers and the Decoupling Hypothesis AntonioPesce Milan,Italy ISSN1431-1933 ISSN2197-7178 (electronic) ContributionstoEconomics ISBN978-3-319-17084-8 ISBN978-3-319-17085-5 (eBook) DOI10.1007/978-3-319-17085-5 LibraryofCongressControlNumber:2015938465 SpringerChamHeidelbergNewYorkDordrechtLondon ©SpringerInternationalPublishingSwitzerland2015 Thisworkissubjecttocopyright.AllrightsarereservedbythePublisher,whetherthewholeorpart of the material is concerned, specifically the rights of translation, reprinting, reuse of illustrations, recitation, broadcasting, reproduction on microfilms or in any other physical way, and transmission or information storage and retrieval, electronic adaptation, computer software, or by similar or dissimilarmethodologynowknownorhereafterdeveloped. The use of general descriptive names, registered names, trademarks, service marks, etc. in this publicationdoesnotimply,evenintheabsenceofaspecificstatement,thatsuchnamesareexempt fromtherelevantprotectivelawsandregulationsandthereforefreeforgeneraluse. Thepublisher,theauthorsandtheeditorsaresafetoassumethattheadviceandinformationinthis book are believed to be true and accurate at the date of publication. Neither the publisher nor the authors or the editors give a warranty, express or implied, with respect to the material contained hereinorforanyerrorsoromissionsthatmayhavebeenmade. Printedonacid-freepaper Springer International Publishing AG Switzerland is part of Springer Science+Business Media (www.springer.com) To my parents and Precious Ann ThiSisaFMBlankPage Preface Thismonographemergedfrom4yearsofdoctoralstudiesattheCatholicUniver- sityofMilan.ManypeoplehavehelpedmeinvariouswayswhileIwasworkingon the thesis. Greatest thanks are due to Laura Barbieri, my supervisor, for her comments,helpfuladvice,guidance,andcontinuoussupport.Iamalsogratefulto commentsanddiscussionsofseminar’sparticipantsandprofessorsattheCatholic UniversityofMilan(IT),inparticularGianlucaFemminis,DomenicoDelliGatti, Marco Lossani, Maurizio Motolese, and Lorenzo Cappellari. I would also like to thank professors at International Center of Econometrics (CIdE), summer school “BayesianMethodsinEconomicsandFinance”Bertinoro(IT),2012.Ialsogreatly benefited from comments and discussions of participants at Ph.D. Conference “International Development 2013”, University of East Anglia, Norwich (UK), and participants at 53rd Congress of European Regional Science Association (ERSA)attheUniversityofPalermo(IT). On a personal level, I owe gratitude to my relatives and a very special person, PreciousAnn,fortheirsteadyandkindencouragement. Milan,Italy AntonioPesce vii ThiSisaFMBlankPage About the Book This book, by using a new empirical investigation approach, contributes to the debate on “decoupling of Emerging Economies (EEs) from the Advanced Econo- mies (AEs)” by addressing the following main questions: “Has the EEs’ vulnera- bility to external shocks (both real and credit shocks) coming from AEs changed overtime?Ifso,hasitgrownordecreased,asthedecouplinghypothesisclaims?” Up until now, decoupling theory has been empirically investigated by looking for some kind of structural break in the model’s coefficients identifiable at some point in the time (usually in the late 1980s). Such an approach is appropriate and effective if the object of study evolves discretely over time, namely as a break at certainpointoftime.However,ifagradualevolutionovertimeisplausible,asmay wellbetrueinthecaseofdecoupling,thenitwouldbemoreappropriatetoutilize anapproach(asinthiswork)allowingforagradualchangeincoefficientsovertime ratherthanforanabruptbreak. Through counterfactual experiments performed using a Time Varying Panel VARmodel,thebookshowsthatoverthelast30yearstheEEshavebecomeless vulnerable to shocks spreading from the AEs. However, the EEs’ resilience to externalshockshaschangedinanonprogressivemannerovertimewithphasesof greaterresiliencefollowedbyothersoflowerresilienceandviceversa;thisoutlines a“wavelike”path,anewevidencewhichhadnotyetbeenanalyzedintheeconomic literature. ix
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