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Econometrics by Example PDF

416 Pages·2016·4.15 MB·English
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Econometrics by Example DamodarGujarati,BasicEconometrics(McGraw-Hill,USA) DamodarGujarati,EssentialsofEconometrics(McGraw-Hill,USA) DamodarGujarati,GovernmentandBusiness(McGraw-Hill,USA) Econometrics by Example Damodar Gujarati ©DamodarGujarati2011,2012 Allrightsreserved.Noreproduction,copyortransmissionofthis publicationmaybemadewithoutwrittenpermission. Noportionofthispublicationmaybereproduced,copiedortransmitted savewithwrittenpermissionorinaccordancewiththeprovisionsofthe Copyright,DesignsandPatentsAct1988,orunderthetermsofanylicence permittinglimitedcopyingissuedbytheCopyrightLicensingAgency, SaffronHouse,6–10KirbyStreet,LondonEC1N8TS. Anypersonwhodoesanyunauthorizedactinrelationtothispublication maybeliabletocriminalprosecutionandcivilclaimsfordamages. Theauthorhasassertedhisrighttobeidentifiedastheauthorofthiswork inaccordancewiththeCopyright,DesignsandPatentsAct1988. Firstpublished2011by PALGRAVEMACMILLAN PalgraveMacmillanintheUKisanimprintofMacmillanPublishersLimited, registeredinEngland,companynumber785998,ofHoundmills,Basingstoke, HampshireRG216XS. PalgraveMacmillanintheUSisadivisionofStMartin'sPressLLC, 175FifthAvenue,NewYork,NY10010. PalgraveMacmillanistheglobalacademicimprintoftheabovecompanies andhascompaniesandrepresentativesthroughouttheworld. Palgrave®andMacmillan®areregisteredtrademarksintheUnitedStates, theUnitedKingdom,Europeandothercountries ISBN 978-0-230-29039-6 Thisbookisprintedonpapersuitableforrecyclingandmadefromfully managedandsustainedforestsources.Logging,pulpingandmanufacturing processesareexpectedtoconformtotheenvironmentalregulationsofthe countryoforigin. AcataloguerecordforthisbookisavailablefromtheBritishLibrary. AcatalogrecordforthisbookisavailablefromtheLibraryofCongress. 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 20 19 18 17 16 15 14 13 12 11 PrintedinGreatBritainbytheMPGBooksGroup,BodminandKing’sLynn Dedication ForJoanGujarati,DianeGujarati-Chesnut,CharlesChesnutandmy grandchildren“Tommy”andLauraChesnut Short contents Preface xv Acknowledgments xix Apersonalmessagefromtheauthor xxi Listoftables xxiii Listoffigures xxix PartI 1 Thelinearregressionmodel:anoverview 2 2 Functionalformsofregressionmodels 25 3 Qualitativeexplanatoryvariablesregressionmodels 47 PartII 4 RegressiondiagnosticI:multicollinearity 68 5 RegressiondiagnosticII:heteroscedasticity 82 6 RegressiondiagnosticIII:autocorrelation 97 7 RegressiondiagnosticIV:modelspecificationerrors 114 PartIII 8 Thelogitandprobitmodels 152 9 Multinomialregressionmodels 166 10 Ordinalregressionmodels 180 11 Limiteddependentvariableregressionmodels 191 12 Modelingcountdata:thePoissonandnegative binomialregressionmodels 203 PartIV 13 Stationaryandnonstationarytimeseries 216 14 Cointegrationanderrorcorrectionmodels 234 15 Assetpricevolatility:theARCHandGARCHmodels 248 16 Economicforecasting 261 17 Paneldataregressionmodels 289 18 Survivalanalysis 306 19 Stochasticregressorsandthemethodofinstrumentalvariables 319 Appendices 1 Datasetsusedinthetext 350 2 Statisticalappendix 356 Index 376 Contents Preface xv Acknowledgments xix Apersonalmessagefromtheauthor xxi Listoftables xxiii Listoffigures xxix PartI Thelinearregressionmodel 1 Chapter1 Thelinearregressionmodel:anoverview 2 1.1 Thelinearregressionmodel 2 1.2 Thenatureandsourcesofdata 5 1.3 Estimationofthelinearregressionmodel 6 1.4 Theclassicallinearregressionmodel(CLRM) 8 1.5 VariancesandstandarderrorsofOLSestimators 10 1.6 Testinghypothesesaboutthetrueorpopulationregressioncoefficients 11 1.7 R2:ameasureofgoodnessoffitoftheestimatedregression 13 1.8 Anillustrativeexample:thedeterminantsofhourlywages 14 1.9 Forecasting 19 1.10 Theroadahead 19 Exercise 21 Appendix:Themethodofmaximumlikelihood 22 Chapter2 Functionalformsofregressionmodels 25 2.1 Log-linear,double-log,orconstantelasticitymodels 25 2.2 Testingvalidityoflinearrestrictions 29 2.3 Log-linorgrowthmodels 30 2.4 Lin-logmodels 34 2.5 Reciprocalmodels 36 2.6 Polynomialregressionmodels 37 2.7 Choiceofthefunctionalform 40 2.8 Comparinglinearandlog-linearmodels 40 2.9 Regressiononstandardizedvariables 41 2.10 Measuresofgoodnessoffit 43 2.11 Summaryandconclusions 45 Exercises 45

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