East Asia’s Economic Integration: Progress and Benefit

362 Pages·2008·1.664 MB·English

by  Daisuke Hiratsuka, Fukunari Kimura (eds.)

East Asia’s Economic
Integration
Progress and Benefit
Edited by
Daisuke Hiratsuka and Fukunari Kimura
East Asia’s Economic Integration
OthertitlesfromIDE-JETRO:
MarikoWatanabe(editor)
RecoveringFinancialSystems
ChinaandAsianTransitionEconomies
DaisukeHiratsuka(editor)
EastAsia’sDeFactoEconomicIntegration
HisayukiMitsuo(editor)
NewDevelopmentsoftheExchangeRateRegimesinDevelopingCountries
TadayoshiTeraoandKenjiOtsuka(editors)
DevelopmentofEnvironmentalPolicyinJapanandAsianCountries
MasahisaFujita(editor)
RegionalIntegrationinEastAsia
FromtheViewpointofSpatialEconomics
AkifumiKuchikiandMasatsuguTsuji(editors)
IndustrialClustersinAsia
AnalysesofTheirCompetitionandCooperation
MayumiMurayama(editor)
GenderandDevelopment
TheJapaneseExperienceinComparativePerspective
NobuhiroOkamotoandTakeoIhara(editors)
SpatialStructureandRegionalDevelopmentinChina
AnInterregionalInput-OutputApproach
AkifumiKuchikiandMasatsuguTsuji(editors)
TheFlowchartApproachtoIndustrialClusterPolicy
MasahisaFujita(editor)
EconomicIntegrationinAsiaandIndia
East Asia’s Economic
Integration
Progress and Benefit
Edited by
Daisuke Hiratsuka
and
Fukunari Kimura
ªInstituteofDevelopingEconomies(IDE),JETRO2008
Softcover reprint of the hardcover 1st edition 2008 978-0-230-55362-0
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ISBN 978-1-349-36345-2 ISBN 978-0-230-22730-9 (eBook)
DOI10.1057/9780230227309
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10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1
17 16 15 14 13 12 11 10 09 08
Contents
ListofFigures ix
ListofTables xii
NotesontheContributors xv
Preface xvi
1 FromDeFactotoDeJureEconomicIntegrationin
EastAsia:Past,PresentandFuture 1
DaisukeHiratsukaandFukunariKimura
1.1 Introduction 1
1.2 Defactoeconomicintegration 3
1.3 TheproblemsofdejureintegrationinEastAsia 6
1.4 Evolutionofacore–peripherystructure 11
1.5 GrowingindigenousenterpriseswithMNEs 13
1.6 Benefitfromeconomicintegration 14
1.7 Policyimplicationsofindividualchapters 16
1.8 Conclusion 22
PartI:TheMakingofEconomicIntegrationinEastAsia 27
2 TheModalityofEastAsia’sEconomicIntegration 29
FukunariKimura
2.1 Formingabasicarchitectureofeconomicintegration 29
2.2 DefactoanddejureeconomicintegrationinEastAsia 30
2.3 Dejureeconomicintegrationintermsoftradeingoods 32
2.4 Dejureeconomicintegrationintermsofpolicy
measuresotherthantariffs 36
2.5 Geographicalboundaryofdejureplurilateralintegration 38
2.6 Concludingremarks 40
3 TheEastAsianNoodleBowlSyndrome 45
RichardE.Baldwin
3.1 Introduction 45
3.2 Currentstateofplay 47
v
vi Contents
3.3 Fragilityandemergingtensions 64
3.4 NewEastAsianRegionalManagementEffort(NEARME) 72
3.5 Concludingremarks 78
4 RulesofOrigin,LocalContentandCumulativeLocal
ContentinEastAsia:ApplicationofanInternational
Input–OutputAnalysis 82
IkuoKuroiwa
4.1 Introduction 82
4.2 Rulesoforigin 83
4.3 Calculationoflocalcontent 85
4.4 Empiricalresults 89
4.5 Sectoranalysis 101
4.6 Conclusion 109
5 MakingSenseoftheTimelinessofTransportation
inEconomicIntegration 118
NobuakiHamaguchi
5.1 Introduction 118
5.2 Developmentoftimelytransportationand
revealedgeographicaladvantage 122
5.3 ThetimelinessissueinJapanesetradeinEastAsia 124
5.4 Concludingremarks 137
PartII:TheEvolutionoftheCore–PeripheryStructure 141
6 TheEvolutionofCore–PeripheryStructureinEastAsia 143
NobuakiHamaguchi
6.1 Introduction 143
6.2 Theperspectiveofneweconomicgeographyanalysisfor
regionalintegration 144
6.3 RegionalintegrationinEastAsia 148
6.4 PerspectiveoftheeconomicintegrationinEastAsia 158
7 IndustrializationthroughVerticalProductionNetworks:
CanLaosParticipate? 162
DaisukeHiratsuka,SouknilanhKeolaandMotoyoshiSuzuki
7.1 Introduction 162
7.2 Industrializationthroughverticalproductionnetworks 164
Contents vii
7.3 Transportcosts 166
7.4 Potentialofindustrializationthroughvertical
productionnetworksinLaos 168
7.5 Highfixedcostandborder-relatedbarriersinLaos 170
7.6 Casestudyofhighborder-relatedcostsinLaos
andtheireffectonitsparticipationinvertical
productionnetworks 172
7.7 Summaryandconclusion 179
8 StructuralChangeinIntermediate,Consumptionand
CapitalGoodsTradeDuringEconomicIntegration:
theEUExperience 184
BartLosandJanOosterhaven
8.1 Introduction 184
8.2 EUintegrationandtradeandlocationtheory 186
8.3 EUinter-countryinput–outputtablesandmodel 189
8.4 Earlierinter-countryinput–outputresearchon
EUintegration 192
8.5 TrendsinEuropeantrade,1975–95 203
8.6 Summaryandconclusion 215
PartIII:TheCurrentStatusofIndigenousEnterprises 223
9 SpilloversandLinkagesbetweenLocalandForeignPlants 225
KazuhikoYokota
9.1 Introduction 225
9.2 Industrialstructureandlocal–multinational
linkagesinThailand 228
9.3 Spilloverandlinkageeffects 231
9.4 Furtherdiscussiononspilloversanddemandlinkage
effects,andtradeliberalization 242
9.5 FTAanditsimpactonlocalplants 249
9.6 Conclusion 251
10 DoLocalSuppliersBenefitfromEconomic
Integration?EvidencefromOutwardFDIfromASEAN 255
DaisukeHiratsuka
10.1 Introduction 255
10.2 WhatdeterminesoutwardFDI? 257
10.3 PatternofoutwardFDIfromASEAN 262
viii Contents
10.4 Intra-regionalFDIinASEAN 268
10.5 Conclusionandpolicyimplications 277
PartIV:QuantitativeImplicationsofEconomicIntegration 281
11 ComparingBilateralandMultilateralASEAN10þ4
FreeTradeAgreements:PossibleImpactsonMember
andNon-memberCountries 283
MichelFouquin
11.1 Introduction 283
11.2 TheopenregionalismconceptandAFTA 284
11.3 Quantitativemodelandpossiblescenario 290
11.4 ASEAN10bilateralFTAswithJapan,China,
KoreaandIndia 293
11.5 AnAsiansinglemarket? 305
12 HowWillASEANþ3IntegrationAccelerateInvestment?
ACGEAnalysis 321
KenItakura
12.1 Introduction 321
12.2 InvestmenttheoryintheDynamicGTAPmodel 322
12.3 Dataaggregationandsimulationdesign 324
12.4 Simulationresults 328
12.5 Concludingremarks 334
Index 339
List of Figures
2.1 Fragmentation:anillustration 36
3.1 TheEastAsian‘noodlebowl’syndrome 48
3.2 PlacementofJapaneseplantsinEastAsia,1975–2004;
emergenceofChina 51
3.3 UnilateraltariffcuttinginPhaseII 56
3.4 Formalunilateralism;reductionsinappliedMFNtariffs 56
3.5 AFTAutilizationrates 58
3.6 Intra-ASEANtradebyHSChapter,2003 59
3.7 Totalmanufacturinggrowth,1990–2002 62
3.8 Anexampleofinterdependencein‘FactoryAsia’ 66
3.9 EastAsianbilateraltradeflowsroundedtonearest1%
ofregionalflows 72
4.1(a) Changesinlocalcontent(1990–2000):
manufacturingsector 95
4.1(b) Changesinimportcontent(1990–2000):
manufacturingsector 95
4.1(c) Impactoftradestructuralchanges(1990–2000):
manufacturingsector 96
4.1(d) Impactoftechnologicalstructuralchanges(1990–2000):
manufacturingsector 96
4.2(a) Changesinlocalcontent(1990–2000):
manufacturingsector 99
4.2(b) Changesinimportcontent(1990–2000):
manufacturingsector 99
4.2(c) Impactofvalueaddedcoefficientchanges(1990–2000):
manufacturingsector 99
4.2(d) Impactoftradestructuralchanges(1990–2000):
manufacturingsector 100
4.2(e) Impactoftechnologicalstructuralchanges(1990–2000):
manufacturingsector 100
4.3(a) Changesinlocalcontent(1990–2000):electronicssector 102
4.3(b) Changesinimportcontent(1990–2000):electronics
sector 103
4.3(c) Impactoftradestructuralchanges(1990–2000):
electronicssector 103
ix