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East Asia Integrates: A Trade Policy Agenda for Shared Growth (World Bank Trade and Development Series) PDF

249 Pages·2004·3.71 MB·English
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EAST ASIA T R A D E A N D D E V E L O P M E N T S E R I E S Emerging East Asian economies have seen their share of world exports more than Integrates triple during the past quarter-century, and intraregional trade has driven this growth. Broad measures of development in East Asia have improved at the same headlong pace. Why push further integration now? Two economic events of historic proportions provide the context: strategic rethinking of development in the region following the East Asian financial crisis of 1997–98 and the accession of China to the World Trade Organization. Policymakers interested in a stable, prosperous region are concerned by A T P A S G RADE OLICY GENDA FOR HARED ROWTH mildly rising inequality within countries and a widening income gap between richer economies and the poorest economies. Increasingly, the development agenda in the region—with its focus on growth, jobs, and social stability—and the trade policy agen- da—with its focus on market access and competitiveness—have become intertwined. Editors East Asian policymakers seek to develop a coherent set of economic policies that can Kathie Krumm and Homi Kharas deliver stability, growth, and regional integration. Without attempting to be compre- hensive, East Asia Integrates offers fundamental strategies that promote cross-border A T flows of trade, globally and regionally, along with domestic policies on logistics, trade r a facilitation, standards, and institutions to maximize the impact of these flows on devel- d e opment and to distribute the gains from trade widely. P o l i c y As the authors demonstrate, multilateral and regional trade initiatives must provide a A g compelling vision of how integration can deliver broadly shared growth and prosperity e n if they are to succeed. In addition, they must use the momentum offered by trade d a agreements to address the links between trade on the one hand, and social stability, f o poverty reduction, and growth on the other. r S h a r e d G r o w t h THE WORLD BANK ISBN 0-8213-5514-7 east Asia integrates A Trade Policy Agenda for Shared Growth east Asia integrates A Trade Policy Agenda for Shared Growth Kathie Krumm and Homi Kharas, Editors Acopublication ofthe World Bank and Oxford University Press © 2004 The International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank 1818 H Street,NW Washington,DC 20433 Telephone 202-473-1000 Internet www.worldbank.org E-mail [email protected] All rights reserved. 1 2 3 4 06 05 04 A co-publication ofthe World Bank and Oxford University Press. The findings,interpretations,and conclusions expressed here are those ofthe author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views ofthe Board ofExecutive Directors ofthe World Bank or the governments they represent. The World Bank cannot guarantee the accuracy ofthe data included in this work. The boundaries, colors,denominations,and other information shown on any map in this work do not imply on the part of the World Bank any judgment ofthe legal status ofany territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries. Rights and Permissions The material in this work is copyrighted.No part ofthis work may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means,electronic or mechanical,including photocopying,recording,or inclusion in any information storage and retrieval system,without the prior written permission ofthe World Bank. The World Bank encourages dissemination ofits work and will normally grant permission promptly. For permission to photocopy or reprint,please send a request with complete information to the Copy- right Clearance Center,Inc.,222 Rosewood Drive,Danvers,MA 01923,USA,telephone 978-750-8400,fax 978-750-4470,www.copyright.com. All other queries on rights and licenses,including subsidiary rights,should be addressed to the Office ofthe Publisher,World Bank,1818 H Street NW,Washington,DC 20433,fax 202-522-2422,e-mail pub- [email protected]. ISBN 0-8213-5514-7 Cover photo:World Bank Library ofCongress Cataloguing-in-Publication data has been applied for. C ONTENTS Foreword xi Acknowledgments xiii Overview xv Kathie Krumm Homi Kharas PART I WIDENINGOPPORTUNITIES IN TRADE ARRANGEMENTS 1 1. China’s Accession to the WTO:Impacts on China 3 William J.Martin Deepak Bhattasali Shantong Li 2. Regional Impact ofChina’s Accession to the WTO 21 Elena Ianchovichina Sethaput Suthiwart-Narueput Min Zhao vi East Asia Integrates 3. New Regionalism:Options for East Asia 39 Mari Pangestu Sudarshan Gooptu 4. Market Access Barriers and Poverty in Developing East Asia 59 Bijit Bora with additional material by Paul Brenton and Takako Ikezuki PART II DEVELOPMENT ORIENTATION FOR A BEHIND-THE-BORDER AGENDA 75 5. Trade and Logistics:An East Asian Perspective 77 Robin Carruthers Jitendra N.Bajpai David Hummels 6. Protecting Industrial Inventions,Authors’Rights,and Traditional Knowledge: Relevance,Lessons,and Unresolved Issues 95 Manjula Luthria Keith E.Maskus 7. Trade and Competitiveness Aspects ofEnvironmental and Labor Standards in East Asia 115 Keith E.Maskus PART III REINFORCING SOCIAL STABILITY THROUGH BROAD SHARING OF BENEFITS 135 8. Household Welfare Impacts ofChina’s Accession to the WTO 137 Shaohua Chen Martin Ravallion 9. Trade in Sectors Important to the Poor:Rice in Cambodia and Vietnam and Cashmere in Mongolia 149 Jehan Arulpragasam Francesco Goletti Tamar Manuelyan Atinc Vera Songwe 10. Trade and Labor Market Vulnerability in Indonesia, Republic ofKorea,and Thailand 171 François Bourguignon Chor-ching Goh Authors and Their Affiliations 189 Index 191 Contents vii FIGURES Figure 1 Trends in Regional Trade xviii Figure 2 Intraregional Trade xix Figure 3 China’s Trade in Third-Country Markets xx Figure 4 Reduced Agricultural Protection in China xxi Figure 5 Chinese Imports,1995 and 2005 xxii Figure 6 Regional Trade Arrangements xxvi Figure 7 Inland Transport Costs for Remote Regions xxix Figure 8 Expanded Exports to APEC from Improvements in Trade Facilitation xxx Figure 9 Costs ofProducer Services xxx Figure 10 Regulatory and Competitive Reforms,Selected Countries xxxii Figure 11 Geographic Distribution ofBilateral Trade Treaties xxxiii Figure 12 Environmental and Labor Standards,East Asia xxxiv Figure 13 Poverty and Inequality xxxvi Figure 14 Effects ofChina’s Accession to WTO on Household Incomes xxxvii Figure 15 Trade and Stability in Labor Markets,Republic ofKorea xxxix Figure 2.1 Exports to China from East Asia Compared with Exports to Other Partners 22 Figure 2.2 China’s Imports,1995 and 2005 23 Figure 2.3 China’s Growing Role in Production Networks 24 Figure 2.4 Impact ofChina’s WTOAccession on Japan and East Asia’s NIEs,2001–10 26 Figure 2.5 Impact ofChina’s WTOAccession on Developing Economies of East Asia,2001–10 27 Figure 4.1 Real Income Gains in Developing East Asia from Agricultural Liberalization 60 Figure 5.1 Potential Contribution ofTransport to Economic Growth in East Asia 79 Figure 5.2 Poverty and Accessibility in Lao PDR 82 Figure 6.1 Comparison ofPatenting Trends,Republic ofKorea and Major Developing Countries,1978–99 97 Figure 6.2 Comparison ofKorean Semiconductor Patents with Worldwide Semiconductor Patents,1976–99 98 Figure 6.3 Comparison ofKorean Semiconductor Patents with Semiconductor Patents ofMajor Advanced Countries,1976–99 98 Figure 6.4 Citations ofKorean Patents as a Proportion ofTotal Patent Citations, by Types ofPatent Applicants,1986–99 101 Figure 6.5 Self-Citation Rates ofKorean Private Corporations,1980–99 102 Figure 6.6 Korean Patents Granted in the United States,Selected Industries,1981–99 102 Figure 8.1 Poverty Incidence Curves:Rural 141 Figure 8.2 Poverty Incidence Curves:Urban 142 Figure 8.3 Mean Gains by Provinces:Absolute Gains in Yuan Per Capita 143 Figure 8.4 Mean Gains by Provinces:Proportionate Gains in Percent 143 Figure 8.5 Mean Gains by Provinces:Percentage ofGainers 144 Figure 8.6 Mean Gains in Yuan,by Income Percentile 144 Figure 8.7 Mean Percentage Gain,by Income Percentile 145 Figure 8.8 Percentage ofGainers,by Income Percentile 145 Figure 9.1 Profit Shares for Rice Value Chain,Cambodia and Vietnam 155 Figure 9.2 Profit Structure ofRice Value Chain,Cambodia and Vietnam 161 Figure 9.3 Share ofCashmere Products in Mongolia’s Total Cashmere Exports, 1993–2001 166 viii East Asia Integrates Figure 10.1 Decade Averages ofImport Tariffs for Manufacturing Industries: Indonesia,Republic ofKorea,and Thailand,1980s and 1990s 174 Figure 10.2 Average Log ofReal Wages ofMales by Broad Sectors (Manufacturing, Services and Construction,and Others) and by Trade Exposure (Low,Medium,and High):Republic ofKorea,1976–2000 177 Figure 10.3 Average Log ofReal Wages ofMales by Broad Sectors (Manufacturing and Services) and by Trade Exposure (Low,Medium,and High): Thailand,1991–2000 178 Figure 10.4 Average Log ofReal Wages ofMales by Broad Sectors (Manufacturing and Services):Indonesia,1986–1999 178 Figure 10.5 Standard Deviation ofLog ofReal Wages ofa Male Cohort in Low, Medium,and High Trade Exposure Industries:Republic ofKorea, 1976–2000 179 Figure 10.7 Average Monthly Hours Worked ofa Male Cohort in Manufacturing and Services:Thailand,1991–2000 180 Figure 10.6 Distribution ofEmployment Status and Employment Sectors of a Male Cohort:Republic ofKorea,1985–2000 180 Figure 10.8 Estimated ρby Birth Year Cohort:Republic ofKorea,1929–69 183 Figure 10.9 Vulnerability by Sectors and Trade Exposure Groups:Republic ofKorea, 1976–2000 184 Figure 10.10 Vulnerability by Gender and Educational Attainment:Thailand,1991–2000 185 TABLES Table 1 Effects on Economic Welfare ofVarious Regional Trade Proposals xxiv Table 2 Structure ofManufactured Exports by Country,1985 and 1996 xxix Table 1.1 Some Measures ofImport Protection in China’s Agriculture 8 Table 1.2 Protection ofIndustrial Sectors in China 10 Table 1.3 Impacts ofReduction in Protection Required by WTO Accession from 2001 TariffLevels,China 14 Table 2.1 Weighted Average Tariffs Facing Exports to China:Indonesia and Thailand,2001–08 28 Table 2.2 Shares ofExports to China Affected by Lifting ofQuantitative Restrictions (QRs):Indonesia and Thailand 28 Table 2.3 Market-by-Market and Product-by-Product Analysis ofIndonesian Exports: China’s Market Share and Closeness ofUnit Value (UV) as Proxies for Potential Risk 29 Table 2.4 Market-by-Market and Product-by-Product Analysis ofThai Exports: China’s Market Share and Closeness ofUnit Value (UV) as Proxies for Potential Risk 30 Table 2.5 Share ofExports to China Affected by Lifting ofQuantitative Restrictions (QRs):Cambodia and Lao PDR 33 Table 2.6 Market-by-Market and Product-by-Product Analysis of Cambodian Exports:China Market Share and Closeness ofUnit Value (UV) as Proxies for Potential Risk 34 Table 2.7 Market-by-Market and Product-by-Product Analysis ofLao PDR’s Exports:China Market Share and Closeness ofUnit Value (UV) as Proxies for Potential Risk 35 Table 3.1 Proposed and Actual Regional Trading Arrangements Involving East Asian Countries 42

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Emerging East Asian economies have seen their share of world exports more than triple during the past quarter-century, and intraregional trade has driven this growth. Broad measures of development in East Asia have improved at the same headlong pace. Why push further integration now? Two economic ev
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