Earthquakes, Tsunamis and Nuclear Risks: Prediction and Assessment Beyond the Fukushima Accident

177 Pages·2016·9.31 MB·English

by  Katsuhiro Kamae (eds.)

Katsuhiro Kamae Editor
Earthquakes,
Tsunamis and
Nuclear Risks
Prediction and Assessment Beyond the
Fukushima Accident
Earthquakes, Tsunamis and Nuclear Risks
ThiSisaFMBlankPage
Katsuhiro Kamae
Editor
Earthquakes, Tsunamis and
Nuclear Risks
Prediction and Assessment Beyond the
Fukushima Accident
Editor
KatsuhiroKamae
ResearchReactorInstitute
KyotoUniversity
Kumatori,Osaka,Japan
ISBN978-4-431-55820-0 ISBN978-4-431-55822-4 (eBook)
DOI10.1007/978-4-431-55822-4
LibraryofCongressControlNumber:2015957422
SpringerTokyoHeidelbergNewYorkDordrechtLondon
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Foreword
On March 11, 2011, a massive earthquake and the resultant tsunami struck the
Tohoku area of Japan, causing serious damage to the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear
Power Plant and the release of a significant quantity of radionuclides into the
surrounding environment. This accident underlined the necessity of establishing
morecomprehensivescientificresearchforpromotingsafetyinnucleartechnology.
In this situation, the Kyoto University Research Reactor Institute (KURRI)
establishedanewresearchprogramcalledthe“KURResearchProgramforScien-
tificBasisofNuclearSafety”in2012.
Nuclear safety study includes not only the prevention of nuclear accidents but
also the safety measures after the accident from a wider viewpoint ensuring the
safetyofresidents.Alongtimeisneededfortheimprovementofthesituation,but
the social needs for the reinforcement of nuclear safety increases rapidly. The
advancementofdisasterpreventiontechnologyfornaturaldisasterssuchasearth-
quakesandtsunamis,thereinforcementofmeasuresfortheinfluenceofaccidents,
and the reinforcement of the safety management of spent fuels and radioactive
wastes are demanded, not to mention the reinforcement of nuclear reactor safety.
Also demanded are the underlying mechanism investigation and accurate assess-
ment fortheeffect ofradiationonthehumanbodyandlife.As withallpremises,
detailedinspectionandanalysisoftheaccidentareindispensable.
In the Research Program for the Scientific Basis of Nuclear Safety, an annual
seriesofinternationalsymposiawasplannedalongwithspecificresearchactivities.
The first in the series of symposia, entitled “The International Symposium on
Environmental Monitoring and Dose Estimation of Residents after the Accident
of TEPCO’s Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Stations [sic],” was held on
December 14, 2012, concerning the radiological effects of the accident on the
public. Also the second was held on November 28, 2013, dealing with nuclear
back-endissuesandtheroleofnucleartransmutationtechnologyaftertheaccident
ofTEPCO’sFukushimaDaiichiNPP.Theresultscoveringawiderangeofresearch
activitieswerereportedanddiscussedinthesymposiumandwerepublishedatthe
requestofmanypeople,withopenaccess.
v
vi Foreword
Following these symposia, the third annual symposium in this series, entitled
“Earthquake, Tsunami and Nuclear Risks after the Accident of TEPCO’s
FukushimaDaiichiNuclearPowerStations,”washeldonOctober30,2014,related
to the safety evaluation of nuclear power plants which was being performed in
Japanfornaturalexternalhazards.Theregulatoryframeworkhasbeenbasedonthe
deterministicapproachsofar,butithasbeenpointedoutthatmanyuncertaintiesin
naturalexternalhazardssuchasseismicmotionandtsunamishouldbeconsidered.
Thus the symposium has dealt with the uncertainties in the safety evaluation,
probabilistic risk assessment of earthquakes and tsunamis, fault displacement
hazardevaluation,riskofnuclearsystems,riskcommunication,andsoon.
This publication summarizes the current status of the methodology for the
assessmentofnuclearrisksofseriousconsequence,low-probabilityevents,which
hasbeenpresentedanddiscussedduringthesymposium.Itwillcontributetobetter
understandingandfurtherdiscussionoftheissues.
On behalf ofKURRI, I wish to thank allthe contributors tothis publication as
wellasthereviewers.KURRIalsohopesthatthispublicationwillpromotefurther
progress in nuclear safety research and will contribute to the reduction of public
anxietyaftertheaccident.
HirotakeMoriyama
KyotoUniversityResearchReactorInstitute
Osaka,Japan
Preface
The accident at the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant, which occurred in
March2011,hasstrengthenedthesafetyevaluationofnuclearpowerplantsincases
of natural disasters. New safety regulations have been instituted on the basis of a
deterministic approach aimed at absolute safety, such as the requirement of safe
sites in the case of tsunamis and the prohibition of installation of especially
important facilities on the outcrop of an active fault. Because many uncertainties
exist in natural phenomena such as earthquakes and tsunamis, a risk concept for
seismicmotionandtsunamisbeyondadesignbasisisindispensable.
Undersuchcircumstances,aninternational symposium“Earth quake,Tsunami
and Nuclear Risks After the accident of TEPCO’s Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear
PowerStations”washeld inKyoto,Japan,onOctober30,2014.Thissymposium
was hosted by the Kyoto University Research Reactor Institute under the “KUR
ResearchProgramfortheScientificBasisofNuclearSafety.”
Thetopicsofthesymposiumincludeduncertaintiesinthesafetyevaluationofan
earthquake and tsunami, probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) for earthquake and
tsunami,riskinanuclearsystem,andriskcommunication.
Thisbookincludessomeofthepresentationsatthesymposium.Themaintopics
ofthebookare(1)Activefaultsandactivetectonicsimportantforseismichazard
assessment of nuclear facilities, (2) Seismic source modeling, simulation, and
modeling techniques indispensable for strong ground motion prediction, and
(3)PRAwithexternalhazardsandriskcommunication.
All the articles in this book were peer-reviewed by specialists in the relevant
fieldsandarelistedintheContentsasCooperators.Theeditorwouldliketothank
alltheauthorsandthesecooperatingspecialistswhoworkedsohardtopublishthis
book.Ihopethisvolumewillprovidereaderstheopportunitytoconsiderthefuture
directionofnuclearsafetyinthefaceofnaturaldisasters.
Osaka,Japan KatsuhiroKamae
vii
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Cooperators
TomotakaIwata(DPRI,KyotoUniversity)
HirotoshiUebayashi(ResearchReactorInstitute,KyotoUniversity)
MichihiroOhori(UniversityofFukui)
TakashiKumamoto(OkayamaUniversity)
HideakiGoto(HirosimaUniversity,HiroshimaJapan)
TsuyoshiTakada(UniversityofTokyo,TokyoJapan)
Prof.OsamuFuruya(TokyoCityUniversity,TokyoJapan)
NobuhisaMatsuta(OkayamaUniversity,OkayamaJapan)
HiroshiMiyano(HoseiUniversity)
KenMuramatsu(TokyoCityUniversity,TokyoJapan)
AkiraYamaguchi(TheUniversityofTokyo,IbarakiJapan)
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