Earthquakes and Multi-hazards Around the Pacific Rim, Vol. II

205 Pages·2019·47.14 MB·English

by  Charles A. Williams

Pageoph Topical Volumes
Charles A. Williams
Zhigang Peng
Yongxian Zhang
Eiichi Fukuyama
Thomas Goebel
Mark R. Yoder
Editors
Earthquakes and
Multi-hazards
Around the Pacific
Rim, Vol. II

Earthquakes and
Multi-hazards
Around the Pacific
Rim, Vol. II
Edited by
Charles A. Williams
Zhigang Peng
Yongxian Zhang
Eiichi Fukuyama
Thomas Goebel
Mark R. Yoder
Previously published in Pure and Applied Geophysics (PAGEOPH),

Volume 175, No. 2, 2018
Editors
Charles A. Williams Eiichi Fukuyama
Tectonophysics National Research Institute
GNS Science for Earth Science and Disaster Resilience
Lower Hutt Tsukuba, Ibaraki
New Zealand Japan
Zhigang Peng Thomas Goebel
School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences Department of Earth Sciences
Georgia Institute of Technology University of California
Atlanta, GA Santa Cruz, CA
USA USA
Yongxian Zhang Mark R. Yoder
Earthquake Prediction Division Department of Physics
China Earthquake Networks Center University of California
Beijing Davis, CA
China USA
ISSN 2504-3625
ISBN 978-3-319-92296-6
Library of Congress Control Number: 2017960904
© Springer International Publishing AG, part of Springer Nature 2019
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C over illustration: Coseismic and postseismic horizontal displacements associated with the 2011 Tohoku- oki earthquake. Taken
from, Akemi Noda, Tsutomu Takahama Takeshi, Kawasato Mitsuhiro, Matsu’ura, Pure Appl. Geophys. 175 (2018), 559–572.
Cover design: deblik, Berlin
Printed on acid-free paper
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International Publishing AG part of Springer Nature
The registered company address is: Gewerbestrasse 11, 6330 Cham, Switzerland
C ontents
Earthquakes and Multi-Hazards Around the Pacific Rim, Vol. II: Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1
Charles A. Williams, Zhigang Peng, Yongxian Zhang, Eiichi Fukuyama, Thomas Goebel and
Mark R. Yoder
Subduction Mode Selection During Slab and Mantle Transition Zone Interaction:
Numerical Modeling . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5
Yanan Shi, Dongping Wei, Zhong-Hai Li, Ming-Qi Liu and Mengxue Liu
Characteristics of Viscoelastic Crustal Deformation Following a Megathrust Earthquake:
Discrepancy Between the Apparent and Intrinsic Relaxation Time Constants . . . . . . . 25
Yukitoshi Fukahata and Mitsuhiro Matsu’ura
Interpretation of Offshore Crustal Movements Following the 2011 Tohoku-Oki E arthquake
by the Combined Effect of Afterslip and Viscoelastic Stress Relaxation . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35
Akemi Noda, T sutomu Takahama, Takeshi Kawasato and Mitsuhiro Matsu’ura
Rupture Characteristics of the 25 November 2016 Aketao Earthquake (Mw 6.6) in Eastern
Pamir Revealed by GPS and Teleseismic Data . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 49
Jie Li, Gang Liu, Xuejun Qiao, Wei Xiong, Xiaoqiang Wang, Daiqin Liu, Jianing Sun, Ailixiati Yushan,
Sulitan Yusan, wei Fang and Qi Wang
Source Characteristics of the Northern Longitudinal Valley, Taiwan Derived from
Broadband Strong-Motion Simulation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 63
Yi-Ying Wen
Fault Structural Control on Earthquake Strong Ground Motions: The 2008 Wenchuan
E arthquake as an Example . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 73
Yan Zhang, Dongli Zhang, Xiaojun Li, Bei Huang, Wenjun Zheng and Yuejun Wang
Voids and Rock Friction at Subseismic Slip Velocity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 87
Eiichi Fukuyama, Futoshi Yamashita and Kazuo Mizoguchi
A Dimensional Analysis Method for Improved Load–Unload Response Ratio . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 109
Yue Liu and Xiang-Chu Yin
Natural Time, Nowcasting and the Physics of Earthquakes: Estimation of Seismic Risk
to Global Megacities . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 123
John B. Rundle, Molly Luginbuhl, Alexis Giguere and Donald L. Turcotte
Natural Time and Nowcasting Earthquakes: Are Large Global Earthquakes
Temporally Clustered?. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 137
Molly Luginbuhl, John B. Rundle and Donald L. Turcotte
Optimal Scaling of Aftershock Zones using Ground Motion Forecasts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 147
John Max Wilson, Mark R. Yoder and John B. Rundle
VVV
VI Contents
Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment for Himalayan–Tibetan Region from
Historical and Instrumental Earthquake Catalogs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 161
M. Moklesur Rahman, Ling Bai, Nangyal Ghani Khan and Guohui Li
Scenario-Based Seismic Hazard Analysis for the Xianshuihe Fault Zone,
Southwest China . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 183
Lifang Zhang, N. Seth Carpenter, Zhenming Wang, Yuejun Lyu and Shanyou Li
Tsunami Simulation Method Assimilating Ocean Bottom Pressure Data Near a
T sunami Source Region . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 197
Yuichiro Tanioka
PureAppl.Geophys.175(2018),525–528
(cid:2)2018SpringerInternationalPublishingAG,partofSpringerNature
Pure and Applied Geophysics
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00024-018-1805-1
Earthquakes and Multi-Hazards Around the Pacific Rim, Vol. II: Introduction
CHARLES A. WILLIAMS,1 ZHIGANG PENG,2 YONGXIAN ZHANG,3 EIICHI FUKUYAMA,4 THOMAS GOEBEL,5 and
MARK R. YODER6
TheseismicbeltalongthePacificRimisthegreatest simulation models and creates the research infras-
earthquake zone in the world, generating more than tructure to enable large-scale simulations and to
80% of the world’s largest earthquakes (https:// assimilate data into the models. Since 1997, twelve
earthquake.usgs.gov/learn/topics/megaqk_facts_fanta workshops, including nine international workshops
sy.php). It is also susceptible to tsunamis and vol- and three working group meetings on earthquake
canic eruptions, which are capable of generating simulations (http://www.aces.org.au/), have been
seriousmulti-hazards.Sincethebeginningofthe21st held by ACES: (1) Inaugural ACES Workshop,
century, many countries along the Pacific Rim have Brisbane and Noosa, Queensland, Australia, January
suffered from tremendous multi-hazards, especially 31–February 5, 1999; (2) 2nd ACES Workshop,
earthquakes and tsunamis. For example, the 2004 Tokyo and Hakone, Japan, October 15–20, 2000; (3)
SumatraM 9.1 earthquakeinIndonesia and the 2011 2nd ACES Working Group Meeting, Maui Super-
Tohoku-oki M 9.0 earthquake in Japan triggered computer Center, USA, July 29–August 3, 2001; (4)
mega-tsunamis and caused significant damages and 3rd ACES Workshop, Maui, Hawaii, USA, May
human casualties. An improved understanding of the 5–10, 2002; (5) 3rd ACES Working Group Meeting,
underlying physical processes and potential interac- Melbourne and Brisbane, Australia, June 2–6, 2003;
tions of these multi-hazards, and better simulation (6) 4th ACES Workshop and iSERVO colloquium,
and forecasting of their occurrences are needed for Beijing, China, July 9–14, 2004; (7) 5th ACES
better hazard mitigation and disaster prevention. International Workshop, Hawaii, USA, April 4–6,
APEC Cooperation for Earthquake Simulation 2006; (8) 6th ACES International Workshop, Cairns,
(ACES) (http://www.aces.org.au/), endorsed by the Australia, May 11–16, 2008; (9) 7th ACES Interna-
Asia-PacificEconomicCooperation(APEC)in1997, tional Workshop, Hokkaido, Japan, October 3–8,
has been focusing on understanding, forecasting, and 2010; (10) ACES Workshop on Advances in Simu-
mitigating the effects of earthquakes and other natu- lation of Multihazards, Maui, Hawaii, USA, May
ral disasters for about 20 years. It links the 1–5,2011;(11)8thACESInternationalWorkshopon
complementary strengths of the earthquake research Advances in Simulation of Multihazards, Maui,
programsofindividualAPECmembereconomiesvia Hawaii, USA, October 23–26, 2012; (12) 9th ACES
collaborationstowardthedevelopmentofearthquake International Workshop on Advances in Simulation
of Multihazards, Chengdu, China, August 10–16,
2015. As a result of ACES, much progress has been
achieved on Lattice Solid particle simulation Model
1 GNS Science, Lower Hutt, New Zealand. E-mail: (LSM), Australian Computational Earth Systems
[email protected] Simulation (ACcESS), Earth Simulator of Japan,
2 GeorgiaInstituteofTechnology,Atlanta,USA.
Geotechnical Finite Element Analysis (GeoFEM),
3 ChinaEarthquakeNetworksCenter,Beijing,China.
4 NationalResearchInstituteforEarthScienceandDisaster Geophysical Finite Element Simulation Tool (GeoF-
Resilience,Tsukuba,Japan. EST), Earthquake Simulator (QuakeSIM), Solid
5 Seismological Laboratory, Earth and Planetary Sciences,
Earth Virtual Research Observatory Institute
UniversityofCalifornia,SantaCruz,SantaCruz,USA.
6 DepartmentofPhysics,UCDavis,Davis,USA. (SERVO),InternationalSolidEarthVirtualResearch
1 Reprinted from the journal
C.A.Williamsetal. PureAppl.Geophys.
Observatory Institute (iSERVO), Load–Unload different from place to place and generally much
Response Ratio (LURR), Pattern Informatics (PI), longer than the intrinsic relaxation time constant of
critical sensitivity, earthquake critical point hypoth- the asthenosphere. Noda et al. investigate transient
esis, the Virtual California model (VC), Relative deformation following the 2011 Tohoku-oki earth-
Operating Characteristic (ROC), Multiscale Finite- quake, consisting of slowly decaying landward
Element Model (MFEM), the Uniform California movements above the main rupture area and rapidly
Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF), etc. Multi- decaying trench-ward movements in its southern
hazards have become a theme of ACES, and the extension.Theyareabletoexplainthese postseismic
ACES Workshop on Advances in Simulation of deformation patterns in terms of the combined effect
Multihazards was held in Maui, Hawaii, May 1–5, ofaftersliponahigh-angledowndipextensionofthe
2011, soon after the M 9.0 Tohoku-oki earthquake main rupture and viscoelastic stress relaxation in the
and tsunami. asthenosphere.
Special Issues have been published after each In the second section, Li et al. perform a joint
ACES workshop, with themes related to the themes inversion of GPS and teleseismic data for the 2016
of the workshop (Donnellan et al. 2004, 2015; M 6.6 Aketao earthquake in eastern Pamir. The
w
Fukuyama et al. 2013; Matsu’ura et al. 2002; Mora mainshock ruptured the right-lateral strike-slip Muji
et al. 2000;Yin et al. 2006). This special issue is the fault with a significant normal-slip component. The
secondvolumeofpaperspublishedfollowingthe9th inversion results reveal two slip patches and unilat-
ACES Workshop on Advances in Simulation of eral rupture propagation to the SE for 60 km. The
Multihazards, Chengdu, China, August 10–16, 2015 firstslippatchoccurredatashallowdepthof0–8 km
(http://www.csi.ac.cn/ACES2015/Home/index.html). close to the mainshock hypocenter and was associ-
The first volume (Zhang et al. 2017) contained 16 ated with surface breaks. The second slip patch
scientific papers related to the presentations at the occurredatagreaterdepthof * 12and * 40 kmto
workshop, as well as additional related topics. This the SE. They also calculate static Coulomb stress
volume continues in the same vein, with 14 papers changes for the surrounding regions based on their
related to problems in multi-hazards in addition to preferred slip model. As expected, the unzipped
this Introduction. segments of the Muji fault and the northern segment
This topical issue is divided into five sections. of the Kungai fault are promoted closer to failure.
Papersonviscoelasticdeformationarepresentedfirst, Wen evaluates the source characteristics of the 2013
followedbypapersonearthquakesourcemodels,and M 6.4Ruisuiand2014M 5.9Fanglinearthquakes,
L L
then papers related to earthquake prediction. The in Longitudinal Valley, between the Central and
fourth section contains papers related to seismic Coastal Mountain Ranges in eastern Taiwan. Using
hazard assessment, and the fifth section consists of a strong motion simulations based on the empirical
single paper on tsunami simulation. Green’s function method, she showed that the
Inthefirstsection,Shietal.investigatethestyleof dimensions of the strong motion generation area
subductionmodesuchasstagnationorpenetrationof (SMGA) were smaller than the empirical estimation
the slab around the 660 km discontinuity, based on ofinland crustal earthquakes,indicatingahighstress
2D thermo-mechanical modeling. They find that dropforthisarea.Thishasimportantimplicationsfor
penetrationoftheslabtendstooccurforyoungslabs, accurate assessment of seismic hazard in this region.
whileforolderslabsstagnationispreferred.Fukahata Zhang et al. systematically examine spatial distribu-
and Matsu’ura investigate the behavior of a layered tions and decay patterns of strong ground motions
elastic–viscoelastic medium compared with a simple during the 2008 M 7.9 Wenchuan earthquake. The
w
viscoelasticmedium.Althoughtheoveralldecayrate mainshockrupturedonhigh-anglelistricreversefault
of the system is controlled by the intrinsic relaxation zones along the boundaries between Eastern Tibetan
time constant of the asthenosphere (viscoelastic part Plateau and Sichuan Basin in Western China. They
ofthesystem),theyfindthattheapparentdecaytime findthatthepeakgroundaccelerations(PGAs)within
constant at each observation point is significantly 30–40 kmoftherupturezonearelargerthanthoseon
Reprinted from the journal 2
Vol.175,(2018) EarthquakesandMulti-HazardsAroundthePacificRim,Vol.II:Introduction
both sides by a factor of two. In addition, the PGAs the use of the idea of ‘‘nowcasting’’. They apply the
decay faster in the footwall than in the hanging wall. nowcasting idea to the practical development of
Thiseffectismoreprominentontheverticalthanthe methods to estimate the current state of risk for
horizontal components. They also compare the PGA dozens of the world’s seismically exposed megaci-
distributions of the Wenchuan earthquake to other ties. For example, the current nowcast ranking of the
events that occurred on low-angle thrust faults such Los Angeles region is comparable to its ranking just
as the 1999 M 7.6 Chi-Chi, Taiwan earthquake. prior to the January 17, 1994 Northridge earthquake.
w
They suggest that the observed PGA patterns are Luginbuhl et al. make further use of nowcasting and
likelycontrolledbythehigh-anglereversefaultingof NTtoexaminethetemporalclusteringoflargeglobal
the Wenchuan mainshock. The observed fault zone earthquakes. They apply both nowcasting and time
amplifications and hanging wall effects could be series analysis of interevent counts to the Global
relevant to the distributions of seismically triggered Centroid Moment Tensor (CMT) catalog from 2004
landslidesandseismichazardmitigationandbuilding to 2016. Based on their best fitting Weibull distri-
design and constructions in these regions. Fukuyama bution,theyconcludethattheintereventnaturaltimes
et al. perform rock–rock friction experiments on in the CMT catalog are not random.
metagabbro and diorite at subsonic slip rates In the fourth section, Wilson et al. develop a
(* 10-3 m/s) and find that friction does not reach method for ground motion forecasts after major
steady state but fluctuates within a certain range. earthquakesbasedonempiricalestimatesofexpected
They also find that the amplitudes of compressional spatio-temporal aftershock decay, including spatial
waves transmitted across the slipping interfaces aftershock anisotropy and ground motion prediction
decrease when sliding friction becomes high and equations.Theirmethod hasthe potential toimprove
increase when friction is low. Such amplitude varia- ground motion forecasts for aftershock sequences
tioncanbeinterpretedbasedonthescatteringtheory; after major earthquakes. Rahman et al. perform a
smallamplitudesinthetransmittedwavescorrespond probabilistic seismic hazard assessment for the
to the creation of large-scale (* 50 lm) voids and Himalayan–Tibetan region by combining incomplete
large amplitudes correspond to the small-scale historical earthquake records for more than
(* 0.5 lm) voids. Thus, large- scale voids could be 1000 years and instrumental earthquake catalogs
generated during the high friction state and low since1906.Withthecatalogincompletenessinmind,
friction state was achieved by grain size reduction they estimate several key statistical seismicity
caused by a comminution process. parameters such as mean seismicity rate, the Guten-
In the third section, Liu and Yin develop a berg–Richter b value and maximum expected
dimensional analysis technique based on the p-theo- magnitude M Using a logic tree to account for
max.
remtoevaluatequantitativelythemagnitudeandtime epistemic uncertainties, they combine different seis-
oftheensuinglargeearthquakewithintheanomalous mogenicsourcemodelsandgroundmotionprediction
areas derived from the load/unload response ratio equations to compute seismic hazard values in this
(LURR) method of Yin (1987). Two dimensionless region. They obtain 2 and 10% probability of
quantities associated with earthquake times and exceedance over 50 years for spectral accelerations
magnitudes are derived from five parameters. Their with bedrock conditions. As expected, the resulting
earthquake case study shows that the dimensional peak ground acceleration (PGA) maps show a sig-
analysis technique may be a useful tool to augment nificant spatio-temporal variation. The obtained
the predictive power of the traditional LURR maximum hazard value for regions where great
approach. Rundle et al. make use of the concept of earthquakes occurred in the past appears to be much
natural time (‘‘NT’’) that was first used by Varotsos higher than previous studies have obtained. They
et al. (2005) and later by Holliday et al. (2006) in suggest that a combination of historical and instru-
their studies of earthquakes. They discuss the ideas mental earthquake catalogs provides better hazard
and applications arising from the use of NT to estimationinthisregion.Zhangetal.useastochastic
understand earthquake dynamics, in particular with finite-fault model to generate time histories and peak
3 Reprinted from the journal
C.A.Williamsetal. PureAppl.Geophys.
valuesofstronggroundmotionatnear-faultlocations ofEarthquakeScience,theChinaEarthquakeAdmin-
for characteristic earthquakes. They determine and istration,theSichuanEarthquakeAdministration, the
verifythesourceparametersbycomparingthemwith Computer Network Information Center, the Chinese
simulatedtimehistoriesandintensitydistributionand Academy of Sciences, and the State Key Laboratory
observations from the 2014 M 6.0 Kangding earth- of Nonlinear Mechanics, Institute of Mechanics,
w
quake at the Xianshuihe Fault Zone, which produces Chinese Academy of Sciences.
strong and relatively frequent earthquakes, and
exposes millions of people to the risk of strong
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Reprinted from the journal 4