Earthquakes and Multi-hazards Around the Pacific Rim, Vol. I

262 Pages·2018·82.45 MB·English

by  Yongxian Zhang

Pageoph Topical Volumes
Yongxian Zhang
Thomas Goebel
Zhigang Peng
Charles A. Williams
Mark R. Yoder
John B. Rundle
Editors
Earthquakes and
Multi-hazards
Around the Pacific
Rim, Vol. I

Earthquakes and
Multi-hazards
Around the Pacific
Rim, Vol. I
Edited by
Yongxian Zhang
Thomas Goebel
Zhigang Peng
Charles A. Williams
Mark R. Yoder
John B. Rundle
Previously published in Pure and Applied Geophysics (PAGEOPH),
Volume 174, No. 6, 2017
Editors
Yongxian Zhang Charles A. Williams
Earthquake Prediction Division Tectonophysics Dept.
China Earthquake Networks Center GNS Science
Beijing, China Lower Hutt, New Zealand
Thomas Goebel Mark R. Yoder
Seismological Laboratory Department of Physics
Earth and Planetary Sciences University of California-Davis
University of California-Santa Cruz Davis, CA, USA
Santa Cruz, CA, USA
John B. Rundle
Zhigang Peng Departments of Physics and Earth & Planetary Science
School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences University of California-Davis
Georgia Institute of Technology Davis, CA, USA
Atlanta, GA, USA
ISSN 2504-3625
ISBN 978-3-319-71564-3
Library of Congress Control Number: 2017960904
© Springer International Publishing AG 2018
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Cover illustration: Historical seismicity within the Farallon transform fault region, Gulf of California, Mexico. Taken from
Castro, R.R., Stock, J.M., Hauksoon, E., and Clayton, R.W., Pure Appl. Geophys. 174 (2017), 2239-2256
Cover design: Deblik, Berlin
P rinted on acid-free paper
T his book is published under the trade name Birkhäuser (www.birkhauser-science.com)
T he registered company is Springer International Publishing AG
T he registered company address is: Gewerbestrasse 11, 6330 Cham, Switzerland
Contents

Earthquakes and Multi-hazards around the Pacific Rim, Vol. 1: Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1
Yong-Xian Zhang , Thomas Goebel , Zhigang Peng , Charles Williams , Mark Yoder and John Rundle
Scaling law of average failure rate and steady-state rate in rocks . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5
Shengwang Hao , Chao Liu , Yingchong Wang and Fuqing Chang
Apparent Dependence of Rate- and State-Dependent Friction Parameters on
Loading Velocity and Cumulative Displacement Inferred from Large-Scale
Biaxial Friction Experiments . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2 3
Yumi Urata , Futoshi Yamashita , Eiichi Fukuyama , Hiroyuki Noda and Kazuo M izoguchi
Source Functions and Path Effects from Earthquakes in the Farallon Transform Fault
Region, Gulf of California, Mexico that Occurred on October 2013 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .4 5
Raúl R. Castro , Joann M . S tock, E gill H auksson and Robert W. Clayton
Stress Distribution Near the Seismic Gap Between Wenchuan and Lushan Earthquakes . . . . . . . . .6 3
Yihai Yang , Chuntao Liang , Zhongquan Li , Jinrong Su , Lu Zhou and Fujun He
Parametrizing Physics-Based Earthquake Simulations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .7 5
Kasey W. Schultz , Mark R. Yoder , John M. Wilson , Eric M. Heien , Michael K. Sachs , John
B. Rundle and Don L. Turcotte
Spatial Evaluation and Verification of Earthquake Simulators . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .8 5
John Max Wilson , Mark R. Yoder , John B. Rundle , Donald L. Turcotte and Kasey W. Schultz
Radar Determination of Fault Slip and Location in Partially Decorrelated Images . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 101
Jay Parker , Margaret Glasscoe , Andrea Donnellan , Timothy Stough , Marlon Pierce and Jun Wang
Detecting Significant Stress Drop Variations in Large Micro-Earthquake Datasets:
A Comparison Between a Convergent Step-Over in the San Andreas Fault and
the Ventura Thrust Fault System, Southern California. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1 17
T. H. W. Goebel , E. Hauksson , A. Plesch and J. H. Shaw
Real-Time Earthquake Intensity Estimation Using Streaming Data Analysis of Social
and Physical Sensors . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 137
Yelena Kropivnitskaya , Kristy F. Tiampo , Jinhui Qin and Michael A. Bauer
The Dependency of Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment on Magnitude Limits
of Seismic Sources in the South China Sea and Adjoining Basins . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1 57
Hongwei Li , Ye Yuan , Zhiguo Xu , Zongchen Wang , Juncheng Wang , Peitao Wang , Yi Gao ,
Jingming Hou and Di Shan
Can Apparent Stress be Used to Time-Dependent Seismic Hazard Assessment or
Earthquake Forecast? An Ongoing Approach in China . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1 77
Zhongliang Wu , Changsheng Jiang and Shengfeng Zhang
VVV
VVVIII Contents
An Ensemble Approach for Improved Short-to-Intermediate-Term Seismic
Potential Evaluation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 187
Huaizhong Yu , Qingyong Zhu , Faren Zhou , Lei Tian and Yongxian Zhang
Reducing False Alarms of Annual Forecast in the Central China North–South Seismic
Belt by Reverse Tracing of Precursors (RTP) Using the Pattern Informatics
(PI) ‘Hotspots’ . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2 07
Shengfeng Zhang , Zhongliang Wu and Changsheng Jiang
Test of the Predictability of the PI Method for Recent Large Earthquakes in and near
Tibetan Plateau . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 217
Yongxian Zhang , Caiyun Xia , Cheng Song , Xiaotao Zhang , Yongjia Wu and Yan Xue
L ong-Term Seismic Quiescences and Great Earthquakes in and Around the Japan
Subduction Zone Between 1975 and 2012 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2 33
Kei Katsumata
Statistical Studies of Induced and Triggered Seismicity at The Geysers, California . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 249
A. Hawkins , D. L. Turcotte , M. B. Yıkılmaz , L. H. Kellogg and J. B. Rundle
PureAppl.Geophys.174(2017),2195–2198
(cid:2)2017SpringerInternationalPublishing
Pure and Applied Geophysics
DOI10.1007/s00024-017-1580-4
Earthquakes and Multi-hazards around the Pacific Rim, Vol. 1: Introduction
YONG-XIAN ZHANG,1 THOMAS GOEBEL,2 ZHIGANG PENG,3 CHARLES WILLIAMS,4 MARK YODER,5 and JOHN RUNDLE5
TheseismicbeltalongthePacificRimisthegreatest simulation models and creates the research infras-
earthquake zone in the world, generating more than tructure to enable large-scale simulations and to
80% of the world’s largest earthquakes (https:// assimilate data into the models. Since 1997, twelve
earthquake.usgs.gov/learn/topics/megaqk_facts_fanta workshops, including nine international workshops
sy.php). It is also susceptible to tsunamis and vol- and three working group meetings on earthquake
canic eruptions, which could generate serious multi- simulations (http://www.aces.org.au/), have been
hazards. Since the beginning of the twenty-first cen- held by ACES: (1) Inaugural ACES Workshop, Jan-
tury, most countries along the Pacific Rim have uary 31–February 5, 1999, Brisbane and Noosa,
suffered from tremendous multi-hazards, especially Queensland, Australia; (2) 2nd ACES Workshop,
earthquakes and tsunamis. For example, the 2004 October 15–20, 2000, Tokyo and Hakone, Japan; (3)
Sumatra M9.1 earthquake in Indonesia and the 2011 2ndACESWorkingGroupMeeting,July 29–August
Tohoku M9.0 earthquake in Japan triggered mega- 3, 2001, Maui Supercomputer Center, USA; (4) 3rd
tsunami and caused significant damages and human ACES Workshop, May 5–10, 2002, Maui, Hawaii,
casualties. An improved understanding of the USA; (5) 3rd ACES Working Group Meeting, June
underlying physical processes and potential interac- 2–6, 2003, Melbourne and Brisbane, Australia; (6)
tions of these multi-hazards, and better simulation 4th ACES Workshop and iSERVO colloquium July
and forecasting of their occurrences are needed for 9–14, 2004, Beijing, China; (7) 5th ACES Interna-
better disaster prevention/mitigation. tional Workshop April 4–6, 2006, Hawaii, USA; (8)
TheAPECCooperationforEarthquakeSimulation 6thACESInternationalWorkshopMay11–16,2008,
(ACES) (http://www.aces.org.au/), endorsed by Cairns, Australia; (9) 7th ACES International Work-
APEC(Asia–PacificEconomicCooperation)in1997, shop October 3–8, 2010, Hokkaido, Japan; (10)
has been focusing on understanding, forecasting, and ACES Workshop on Advances in Simulation of
mitigating the effects of earthquakes and other natu- Multihazards,Maui,Hawaii,May1–5,2011;(11)8th
ral disasters for about 20 years. It links the ACES International Workshop on Advances in Sim-
complementary strengths of the earthquake research ulation of Multihazards, Maui, Hawaii, October
programsofindividualAPECmembereconomiesvia 23–26,2012;(12)9thACESInternationalWorkshop
collaborationstowardthedevelopmentofearthquake on Advances in Simulation of Multihazards,
Chengdu, China, August 10–16, 2015. As a result of
ACES, much progress has been achieved on Lattice
Solid particle simulation Model (LSM), Australian
1 China Earthquake Networks Center, Beijing 100045,
Computational Earth Systems Simulation (ACcESS),
China.E-mail:[email protected]
2 Seismological Laboratory, Earth and Planetary Sciences, Earth Simulator of Japan, Geotechnical Finite Ele-
UniversityofCalifornia,SantaCruz,SantaCruz,CA95064,USA. ment Analysis (GeoFEM), Geophysical Finite
E-mail:[email protected]
3 GeorgiaInstituteofTechnology,Atlanta,GA30332,USA. Element Simulation Tool (GeoFEST), Earthquake
E-mail:[email protected] Simulator (QuakeSIM), Solid Earth Virtual Research
4 GNS Science, Lower Hutt 5040, New Zealand. E-mail: Observatory Institute (SERVO), International Solid
[email protected]
Earth Virtual Research Observatory Institute
5 DepartmentofPhysics,UCDavis,Davis,CA95616,USA.
E-mail:[email protected];[email protected] (iSERVO), Load–Unload Response Ratio (LURR),
1 Reprinted from the journal
Y.Zhangetal. PureAppl.Geophys.
Pattern Informatics (PI), Critical Sensitivity, Earth- In the first section, S. W. Hao et al. present
quake Critical Point Hypothesis, the Virtual experimental results that examine the evolution
California model (VC), Relative Operating Charac- properties of rocks during the secondary, nearly
teristic (ROC), Multiscale Finite-Element Model constant strain rate stage of deformation. Their
(MFEM),theUniformCaliforniaEarthquakeRupture experimentsindicatethatalowerratiointheslopeof
Forecast (UCERF), etc. In the late 2000s, multi- thesecondarystagewithrespecttotheaveragerateof
hazards became a theme of ACES, and the ACES theentirelifetimeimpliesmorebrittlefailuremodes.
Workshop on Advances in Simulation of Multihaz- Y. Urata et al. examine the influence of loading
ardswasheldinMaui,Hawaii,May1–5,2011,soon velocity, cumulative slip and gouge on constitutive
after the Tohoku M9.0 earthquake and tsunami. parameters within a rate-and-state friction law, using
Special Issues have been published after each experiments and a spring-slider model. The authors
ACES workshop, with themes related to the themes find that conventional rate-and-state formulations
of the workshop (Donnellan et al. 2004, 2015; cannot capture the observed evolution of frictional
Fukuyama et al. 2013; Matsu’ura et al. 2002; Mora parameters with cumulative slip. R. R. Castro et al.
et al. 2000; Yin et al. 2006). This special issue, determine source parameters and quality factors for
named ‘earthquakes and multi-hazards around the an earthquake sequence that occurred in the Gulf of
Pacific Rim,’ contains many of the results presented California in October 2013. They resolve a main-
at the 9th ACES International Workshop on Advan- shock stress drop of 1.7 MPa and the frequency
ces in Simulation of Multihazards, Chengdu, China, dependence of seismic wave attenuation. In order to
August 10–16, 2015 (http://www.csi.ac.cn/ study the stress distribution near the seismic gap
ACES2015/Home/index.html), as well as additional between the M8.0 Wenchuan and M7.0 Lushan
related topics. Earthquakes, Y. H. Yang et al. determine the focal
The 9th workshop included seven regular sessions mechanisms of 228 earthquakes with magnitude
(microscopicsimulation;scalingphysics;macroscale M C 3 from January 2008 to July 2014 near the
simulation: earthquake generation and cycles; mac- seismic gap along the Longmenshan Fault Belt by
roscale simulation: dynamic rupture and wave using a full waveform inversion method and then
propagation; computational environment and algo- applyadampedlinearinversionmethodtoderivethe
rithms; data assimilation and understanding; model regional stress field based on the determined source
applications) and four special sessions. The special parameters. Their results suggest that from west to
sessions were highlighted by ‘Global Navigation east across the three main imbricated faults of the
Satellite System (GNSS) Tsunami Early Warning Longmenshanfaultsystem,thefaultingtypeschange
System:Models,Simulations,DataandTechnology.’ fromthrustinthewesternmostregiontostrike-slipin
TheresearchresultsoftheApril24,2015,Magnitude the central part and to normal and mixed faulting at
7.8 Lamjung (Kathmandu), Nepal Earthquake were the east end.
also discussed in a special session. The other two In the second section, K. W. Schultz et al. (2017)
special sessions were ‘Earthquake simulation and introduce a new slip-weakening friction law used in
forecasting in China: State-of-the-art and future theVirtualQuakeSimulator.Theyexploretheeffects
prospective,’and‘ThelureofLURR—Celebrationof of the frictional law parameters on seismicity rate
Professor Yin’s 80th Birthday.’ simulationswiththeUCERF3Californiafaultmodel.
Thistopicalissueisdividedintotwovolumes.The They find that the new model extends the magnitude
first volume (Vol. I) includes 16 papers, which are ranges where earthquake rates from simulations
further divided into three sections. Papers on earth- match observations in California, and improves the
quake physics are presented first, followed by papers agreement between the simulated and observed
on earthquake simulation and data assimilation. The scalingrelations.M.Wilsonetal.developastatistical
final section covers multi-hazard assessment and method to evaluate earthquake simulators based on
earthquake forecasting models. observed seismicity data. J. Parker et al. discuss
automated methods to locate and measure surface
Reprinted from the journal 2
Vol.174,(2017) EarthquakesandMulti-hazardsaroundthePacificRim,Vol.1:Introduction
fault slip using deformation measurements from the determine false alarm rates in annual earthquake
NASA Uninhabited Aerial Vehicle Synthetic Aper- forecasts for China and suggest a method to reduce
ture Radar (UAVSAR) data. UAVSAR is similar to such false alarms. Y. X. Zhang et al. present and
satellite-based SAR,butcanfacilitatehighermission validate an earthquake forecast, based on the Pattern
flexibility and superior pixel resolution, of approxi- Informatics (PI) method, of the Tibetan Plateau
mately 7 m. The presented methods use freely region during the time period 2008–2014, including
available data products from the UAVSAR mission. the2008M8.0Wenchuanearthquake.Theforecastis
T. H. W. Goebel et al. examine the variability of verified using a receiver operating characteristic
seismic stress drops, looking specifically at the San (ROC) metric and R score. They show that the PI
Gorgonio Pass and Ventura Basin in southern Cali- metric significantly outperforms a random forecast
fornia. They improve the resolution of their method and that some models with a larger grid and longer
by stacking large numbers of source spectra. They time window have higher forecasting efficacy.
find that events in the Ventura Basin (high loading K. Katsumata analyzes earthquake catalogues pro-
rates) have lower stress drops than those in the San videdbytheInternationalSeismologicalCenter(ISC)
Gorgonio Pass (slow loading rates). Y. Y. todetectearthquakequiescenceinandnearJapanby
Kropivnitskaya et al. analyze anthropogenic data usingasimplescanningtechnique(ZMAP).Theyde-
from social media sources like Twitter in combina- cluster earthquake swarms and aftershocks by a
tion with contemporary physical sensor data, to stochastic de-clustering method based on the Epi-
estimate local earthquake intensity. Their algorithm demic-Type Aftershock Sequence model (ETAS).
and results show that combining social media-based Their results show that 11 significant quiescences of
metrics with data from physical type sensors pro- morethan9 yearsoccurredduring1964–2012,and3
duces intensity maps with more complete coverage, of them were followed by M C8.25 earthquakes,
w
improved accuracy, and higher resolution than maps whiletherewere4M C8.25earthquakesduringthis
w
using either data source separately. time period. A. Hawkins et al. examine the statistics
In the third section, H. W. Li et al. conduct a of induced and triggered seismicity at the Geysers
probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment in the South geothermal field in California. Their results support
China Sea and neighboring basins. They perform a the idea that these earthquakes are caused by a
thorough review of historic earthquake and tsunami reduction in friction on the associated faults as a
events followed by evaluations of the upper and resultofinjectedfluid.Theyalsofindthattheinduced
lower bounds of tsunami hazard based on different seismicity obeys Gutenberg–Richter (GR) scaling,
corner magnitudes. They suggest that multi-disci- andthat aftershocks ofthe inducedearthquakesobey
plinary studies with seismic, geodetic, tectonic, and GR scaling as well.
tsunami generation are needed to improve tsunami We thank the contributors to this and previous
hazard evaluation in this region. Z. L. Wu et al. topical volumes, especially the authors, reviewers,
summarize the approach in China since the last 1.5 Birkhauser personnel to make this topical volume
decade of using apparent stress for time-dependent happen. We would like to thank Dr. Renata
seismic hazard assessment orearthquake forecasting. Dmowska, the Editor-in-Chief, for Topical Issues of
The research results show that this approach, seem- PAGEOPH, for her support and patience during the
ingly uniquely carried out on a large scale in editing process. Special thanks to Prof. X. C. Yin’s
mainland China, provides the earthquake catalogues contributiontoACESfornearly20 years.Finally,we
for the predictive analysis of seismicity with an would like to acknowledge our sponsors of the 9th
additional degree of freedom, deserving a systematic ACES workshop, the China Earthquake Administra-
review and reflection. H. Z. Yu et al. use a combi- tion,theMinistryofScienceandTechnology,andthe
nation of spatial and temporal earthquake forecast Ministry of Finance of the People’s Republic of
methods and suggest that using this ensemble of China. The China Earthquake Networks Center hos-
methodsmayhelpimproveshorttointermediateterm tedtheACESworkshoptogetherwiththeInstituteof
forecasts. S. F. Zhang et al. investigate methods to Earthquake Science, the China Earthquake
3 Reprinted from the journal
Y.Zhangetal. PureAppl.Geophys.
Administration, the Sichuan Earthquake Administra- Fukuyama,E.,Rundle,J.B.&Tiampo,K.F.(Eds.)(2013),Earth-
tion, the Computer Network Information Center, the quakehazardevaluation.PureandAppliedGeophysics,170(1/
2),560pp.(Springer,Basel,2013).
Chinese Academy of Sciences, and the State Key
Matsu’ura,M.,Mora,P.,Donnellan,A.&Yin,X-C.(Eds.)(2002),
Laboratory of Nonlinear Mechanics, Institute of Earthquakeprocesses:physicalmodelling,numericalsimulation,
Mechanics, Chinese Academy of Sciences. and data analysis, part I and II. Pure and Applied Geophysics,
159(9/10),(Birkhauser,2002).
Mora, P., Matsu’ura, M., Madariaga, R. & Minster, J-B. (Eds.)
(2000), Microscopic and macroscopic simulation: towards pre-
dictive modelling of the earthquake process. Pure and Applied
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