Earthquake research and analysis : statistical studies, observations and planning

470 Pages·2011·34.403 MB·English

by  Sebastiano D'Amico

EARTHQUAKE RESEARCH
AND ANALYSIS –
STATISTICAL STUDIES,
OBSERVATIONS AND
PLANNING

Edited by Sebastiano D'Amico
Earthquake Research and Analysis –
Statistical Studies, Observations and Planning
Edited by Sebastiano D'Amico

Published by InTech
Janeza Trdine 9, 51000 Rijeka, Croatia

Copyright © 2012 InTech
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Technical Editor Teodora Smiljanic
Cover Designer InTech Design Team

First published February, 2012
Printed in Croatia

A free online edition of this book is available at www.intechopen.com
Additional hard copies can be obtained from [email protected]

Earthquake Research and Analysis – Statistical Studies, Observations and Planning,
Edited by Sebastiano D'Amico
p. cm.
ISBN 978-953-51-0134-5

Contents

Preface IX
Part 1 Statistical Seismology 1
Chapter 1 The Weibull – Log-Weibull Transition
of Interoccurrence Time of Earthquakes 3
Tomohiro Hasumi, Chien-chih Chen,
Takuma Akimoto and Yoji Aizawa
Chapter 2 Change Point Analysis in Earthquake Data 25
Ayten Yiğiter
Part 2 Studies on Earthquake Precursors and Forecasting 41
Chapter 3 Current State of Art in Earthquake Prediction, Typical
Precursors and Experience in Earthquake Forecasting
at Sakhalin Island and Surrounding Areas 43
I.N. Tikhonov and M.V. Rodkin
Chapter 4 Earthquakes Precursors 79
Dumitru Stanica and Dragos Armand Stanica
Chapter 5 Earthquake Prediction: Analogy with Forecasting Models
for Cyber Attacks in Internet and Computer Systems 101
Elvis Pontes, Anderson A. A. Silva,
Adilson E. Guelfi and Sérgio T. Kofuji
Chapter 6 Identification of Simultaneous Similar
Anomalies in Paired Time-Series 125
R. G. M. Crockett
Chapter 7 Radon as Earthquake Precursor 143
Giuseppina Immè and Daniela Morelli
Chapter 8 Application of Recurrent Radon Precursors for
Forecasting Local Large and Moderate Earthquakes 161
Ming-Ching T. Kuo
VI Contents

Chapter 9 Radon as an Earthquake Precursor –
Methods for Detecting Anomalies 179
Asta Gregorič, Boris Zmazek, Sašo Džeroski,
Drago Torkar and Janja Vaupotič
Chapter 10 Changes in Apparent Resistivity in
the Late Preparation Stages of Strong Earthquakes 197
Du Xuebin, An Zhanghui, Yan Rui, Ye Qing, Fan Yingying,
Liu Jun, Chen Junying and Tan Dacheng
Chapter 11 Are There Pre-Seismic Electromagnetic Precursors?
A Multidisciplinary Approach 217
Konstantinos Eftaxias
Chapter 12 The Effect of Marmara (Izmit) Earthquake
on the Chemical Oceanography and Mangan
Enrichment in the Lower Layer Water
of Izmit Bay, Turkey 247
Nuray Balkis
Part 3 Earthquake Observatories 273
Chapter 13 Newly-Proposed Methods for Early Detection of
Incoming Earthquakes, Tsunamis & Tidal Motion 275
Samvel G. Gevorgyan
Chapter 14 Earth Observation for Earthquake Disaster
Monitoring and Assessment 293
Huadong Guo, Liangyun Liu, Xiangtao Fan,
Xinwu Li and Lu Zhang
Chapter 15 Earthquake Observation by Social Sensors 313
Takeshi Sakaki and Yutaka Matsuo
Chapter 16 Fibre-Optic Sagnac Interferometer
as Seismograph for Direct Monitoring
of Rotational Events 335
Leszek R. Jaroszewicz, Zbigniew Krajewski
and Krzysztof P. Teisseyre
Part 4 Earthquakes and Planning 359
Chapter 17 Experience with Restoration of Asia Pacific
Network Failures from Taiwan Earthquake 361
Yasuichi Kitamura, Youngseok Lee,
Ryo Sakiyama and Koji Okamura
Chapter 18 Earthquake Induced a Chain Disasters 383
Guangqi Chen, Yange Li, Yingbin Zhang and Jian Wu
Contents VII

Chapter 19 Correlation Between Geology,
Earthquake and Urban Planning 417
Sule Tudes
Chapter 20 Simulating Collective Behavior in Natural
Disaster Situations: A Multi-Agent Approach 435
Robson dos Santos França, Maria das Graças B. Marietto,
Margarethe Born Steinberger and Nizam Omar

Preface

Theoretical studies on earthquakes as well as practical applications are really
important in order to define the assessment of seismic hazard and risk in a particular
area. This is probably the most important contribution of seismology to society. Recent
earthquakes have shown the inadequacy of a massive portion of the buildings erected
in and around the epicentral areas, therefore research on earthquakes became more
and more important. Up to date the scientific community agrees that the earthquake
prediction is not possible. In fact, scientists cannot predict the exact location,
magnitude and time of an earthquake striking a particular area. Scientists still do not
know many of the details of the physical processes involved in earthquakes and they
remain unpredictable. However, several scientists are working on earthquake
precursors and forecasting studies and this represent a big challenge.
Chapters in this book will be devoted to various aspects of earthquake research and
analysis, from theoretical advances to practical applications. The first two chapters are
dedicated to statistical studies. About ten chapters in section II focus on studies about
earthquake precursors and forecasting. Some chapters propose new methods for early
detection, as well as the earthquake observation through the use of social sensors. The
last section presents nice contributions that aim to link earthquakes and disaster
triggered in the area struck by a large. The last chapter presents a study on simulating
collective behavior during natural disasters.
I would like to express my special thanks to Mr. Igor Babic, Ms Ivana Lorkovic, and Ms
Ivana Zec. Last but not least, I would like to thank the whole staff of InTech - Open
Access Publisher, especially Mr Igor Babic, for their professional assistance and technical
support during all the process steps that have led to the realization of this book.

Sebastiano D’Amico
Research Officer III
Physics Department
University of Malta
Malta