Earthquake Protection, Second Edition

428 Pages·2002·10.725 MB·English

by  Dr Andrew Coburn, Dr Robin Spence(auth.)

Earthquake Protection
Earthquake Protection, Second Edition. Andrew Coburn and Robin Spence
Copyright  2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. ISBN: 0-471-49614-6
Earthquake Protection
Second Edition
Andrew Coburn
Risk ManagementSolutionsInc., USA
Associate of the Martin Centre for Architectural and Urban Studies,
Universityof Cambridge, UK
and
Robin Spence
ReaderinArchitecturalEngineeringandFellowofMagdaleneCollege,
Universityof Cambridge, UK
Director,CambridgeArchitecturalResearch Ltd, Cambridge, UK
Copyright2002 JohnWiley&SonsLtd,TheAtrium,SouthernGate,Chichester,
WestSussexPO198SQ,England
Telephone[phone]
Email(forordersandcustomerserviceenquiries):[email protected]
VisitourHomePageonwww.wileyeurope.comorwww.wiley.com
AllRightsReserved.Nopartofthispublicationmaybereproduced,storedinaretrieval
systemortransmittedinanyformorbyanymeans,electronic,mechanical,photocopying,
recording,scanningorotherwise,exceptunderthetermsoftheCopyright,Designsand
PatentsAct1988orunderthetermsofalicenceissuedbytheCopyrightLicensingAgency
Ltd,90TottenhamCourtRoad,LondonW1T4LP,UK,withoutthepermissioninwritingof
thePublisher.RequeststothePublishershouldbeaddressedtothePermissionsDepartment,
JohnWiley&SonsLtd,TheAtrium,SouthernGate,Chichester,WestSussexPO198SQ,
England,[email protected],orfaxedto([phone].
Thispublicationisdesignedtoprovideaccurateandauthoritativeinformationinregardto
thesubjectmattercovered.ItissoldontheunderstandingthatthePublisherisnotengaged
inrenderingprofessionalservices.Ifprofessionaladviceorotherexpertassistanceis
required,theservicesofacompetentprofessionalshouldbesought.
OtherWileyEditorialOffices
JohnWiley&SonsInc.,111RiverStreet,Hoboken,NJ07030,USA
Jossey-Bass,989MarketStreet,SanFrancisco,CA94103-1741,USA
Wiley-VCHVerlagGmbH,Boschstr.12,D-69469Weinheim,Germany
JohnWiley&SonsAustraliaLtd,33ParkRoad,Milton,Queensland4064,Australia
JohnWiley&Sons(Asia)PteLtd,2ClementiLoop#02-01,JinXingDistripark,
Singapore129809
JohnWiley&SonsCanadaLtd,22WorcesterRoad,Etobicoke,Ontario,CanadaM9W1L1
LibraryofCongressCataloging-in-PublicationData
Coburn,Andrew(AndrewW.)
Earthquakeprotection/AndrewCoburnandRobinSpence.–2nded.
p.cm.
Includesbibliographicalreferencesandindex.
ISBN0-471-49614-6
1.Earthquakehazardanalysis.2.Earthquakeengineering.3.Earthquakes–Safety
measures.I.Spence,R.J.S.(RobinJ.S.)II.Title.
QE539.2.S34C632002
363.34(cid:1)9563–dc21
2002072616
BritishLibraryCataloguinginPublicationData
AcataloguerecordforthisbookisavailablefromtheBritishLibrary
ISBN0-471-49614-6(Cloth)
ISBN0-470-84923-1(Paper)
Typesetin10/12ptTimesbyLaserwordsPrivateLimited,Chennai,India
PrintedandboundinGreatBritainbyTJInternational,Padstow,Cornwall
Thisbookisprintedonacid-freepaperresponsiblymanufacturedfromsustainableforestry
inwhichatleasttwotreesareplantedforeachoneusedforpaperproduction.
In memoriam:
Fred Cuny of Intertect, from whose ideas, vision and personal encouragement
much of the work described in this book developed. Fred was murdered in
Chechnya in 1995 in the course of a typically courageous and selfless effort to
bring humanitarian support to the displaced people there.
Contents
About the Authors xi
Foreword xiii
Acknowledgements xv
1 Earthquakes, Disasters and Protection 1
1.1 Earthquake Protection: Past Failure and Present Opportunity 1
1.2 Earthquake Disasters 3
1.3 Earthquakes 14
1.4 Earthquake Protection 26
1.5 Organisation of the Book 34
Further Reading 36
2 The Costs of Earthquakes 37
2.1 The Costs of Earthquakes in the Last Century 37
2.2 Who Pays? 44
2.3 The Private Building Owner 54
2.4 The Insurance Industry 58
2.5 The Public Sector 64
2.6 Interrelated Risk 67
Further Reading 69
3 Preparedness for Earthquakes 71
3.1 Earthquake Prediction 71
3.2 Long-term Prediction (Years) 71
3.3 Short-term Prediction (Days/Hours) 74
3.4 Instantaneous Warning (Seconds) 78
3.5 Practicalities of Prediction and Evacuation 78
viii CONTENTS
3.6 Getting the General Public Prepared 84
Further Reading 89
4 The Earthquake Emergency 91
4.1 Emergency Management 91
4.2 Search and Rescue 101
4.3 Search and Rescue Techniques 106
4.4 Medical Aspects of Earthquake Disaster 117
4.5 Follow-on Disasters 123
4.6 Shelter, Food and Essential Services 128
4.7 Re-establishing Public Confidence 134
Further Reading 138
5 Recovering from Earthquakes 141
5.1 Opportunities and Challenges 141
5.2 Sectoral Recovery Plan 142
5.3 Repairing Economic Damage 144
5.4 Physical Reconstruction 150
5.5 Housing and Shelter Policy 156
5.6 Reconstruction and the Construction Industry 162
5.7 Turning Reconstruction into Future Protection 165
Further Reading 175
6 Strategies for Earthquake Protection 177
6.1 Creating a Safe Society 177
6.2 Personal Risk Management 178
6.3 Corporate Risk Management 183
6.4 Urban Risk Management 192
6.5 National Risk Management 211
6.6 International Aid and Development Organisations 223
Further Reading 232
7 Site Selection and Seismic Hazard Assessment 233
7.1 Choice of Siting 233
7.2 Site-related Earthquake Hazards 234
7.3 Estimating Ground Motion Hazard 238
7.4 Effect of Site Conditions on Seismic Hazard 253
7.5 Microzoning 255
7.6 Mapping of Insurance Risks 259
Further Reading 261
CONTENTS ix
8 Improving Earthquake Resistance of Buildings 263
8.1 Strong and Weak Building Types 263
8.2 Building Response to Earthquakes 267
8.3 How Buildings Resist Earthquakes 272
8.4 Structural Form and Earthquake Resistance 274
8.5 Choice of Structural Materials 279
8.6 Codes of Practice for Engineered Buildings 281
8.7 Improving the Resistance of Non-engineered Buildings 285
8.8 Strengthening Existing Buildings 293
8.9 Repair and Strengthening of Historical Buildings 304
Further Reading 309
9 Earthquake Risk Modelling 311
9.1 Loss Estimation 311
9.2 Definition of Terms 313
9.3 Vulnerability Assessment 317
9.4 The PSI Scale of Earthquake Ground Motion 325
9.5 The HAZUS Methodology 333
9.6 Human Casualty Estimation 338
9.7 Other Losses 342
9.8 Applications of Loss Estimation 346
9.9 Uncertainty in Loss Estimation 349
Further Reading 352
10 Risk Mitigation in Action 353
10.1 Introduction 353
10.2 Improving Standards of Construction for New Buildings 353
10.3 Strengthening Existing Buildings and Infrastructure 358
10.4 Upgrading Rural Construction: Building for Safety 359
10.5 Evaluating Alternative Protection Strategies 364
10.6 Evaluation of Alternative Strategies: Some Examples 369
10.7 Social and Public Policy Aspects of Earthquake
Protection Strategies 375
10.8 The Way Ahead 380
Bibliography 385
Index 403
ABOUT THE AUTHORS
Andrew Coburn MA, DipArch, PhD
AndrewCoburnisanexecutiveofRiskManagementSolutions,Inc.,theworld’s
leading insurance risk management and catastrophe modelling company, work-
ing with insurance clients to assist with the management of earthquake risk.
Dr Coburnhasmanyyearsofinternationalexperienceofearthquakeriskanalysis
and catastrophe modelling. He originally completed his PhD on earthquake risk
at Cambridge University in the 1980s under the supervision of Dr Robin Spence
and has studied many catastrophes and developed techniques for their analysis,
modelling and quantification. For over 20 years, he has participated in the study
ofcatastropheeventsincluding15fielddamagesurveys,rangingfromtheItalian
earthquakein1980totheGujaratearthquakeinIndiain2001.Hisresearchwork
has included research into human casualties in catastrophes, including Visiting
Fellowships at Hokkaido University in Japan, Virginia Polytechnic Institute in
Washington, DC, USA and University of Naples, Italy.
xii ABOUTTHEAUTHORS
Robin Spence MA, MSc, PhD, CEng, FIStructE, MICE,
Member EERI
Robin Spence is a structural engineer and Reader in Architectural Engineering
in the Department of Architecture at Cambridge University. He has been active
in the field of earthquake risk mitigation for over 20 years. During that time he
has taken part in many field missions, and was one of the founders of EEFIT,
the UK earthquake engineering team in 1983. He has also directed numerous
research projects on earthquake vulnerability assessment, loss estimation and
disaster mitigation, and is the author of many papers, reports and manuals on
these subjects. He has frequently been a consultant to international agencies,
nationalgovernmentsandinsurancecompaniesontheassessmentandmitigation
of earthquake and volcanic hazards.
After obtaining his PhD on the analysis of reinforced concrete structures,
Dr SpencehasbeenwiththeDepartmentofArchitectureatCambridgeUniversity
since1975,andhasbeenaDirectorandJointDirectoroftheMartinCentresince
1985. He has been a Visiting Professor at MIT and UCLA, at the University of
Naples and at Macquarie University in Sydney. He is currently Director of the
Cambridge University Centre for Risk in the Built Environment. He is also a
Director of Cambridge Architectural Research Ltd, and a Fellow of Magdalene
College, Cambridge.
Foreword
During the past ten years, since publication of the first edition of Earthquake
Protection, the world has experienced many catastrophic earthquakes. These
earthquakes have been in developed and developing countries and they have
impacted urban as well as rural communities. Tens of thousands of lives and
billions of dollars of economic losses have occurred due to these events. With
every passing decade, the level of losses is increasing dramatically. Even in
countrieswhicharesupposedtobeatthecuttingedgeofscienceandtechnology
in earthquake-related disciplines, we have seen devastating life and economic
losses. It is then natural to inquire as to why our societies have not been able to
mitigate the effects of such events.
The answer to such a query is very complex. The socio-economic conditions
together with education and awareness of earthquake risk of the population at
large play an important role in shaping the way an affected community will
respondtoanearthquake.Evenamongstexpertsfromseismology,geology,archi-
tecture, engineering and other technical disciplines related to earthquakes, there
is relatively small appreciation of the complexities of earthquake risk mitigation
issues. A holistic understanding and the application of strategies based on such
an understanding are very urgently needed.
The second edition of EarthquakeProtection by Coburn and Spence provides
an excellent introduction to this complex problem. The book treats the problem
of earthquakes from seismological, geological, architectural, engineering, social,
and economic perspectives. The book provides a superb explanation about the
role of insurance/reinsurance in earthquake risk management. It is important for
alltheearthquakeriskmanagementprofessionalstoappreciateandunderstandthe
interactionsofvariousdisciplinestodevelopsustainableearthquakeriskreduction
strategies. This book by Coburn and Spence should be required reading for all
these professionals.
Since the publication of the first edition of Earthquake Protection in 1992,
the two authors have continued to build their reputations in this field, both in
academic research and in commercial application. Their treatment of financial
implications relatedtoearthquakesisunique andprovidesstateof the artknowl-
edge to readers in the financial services industry. This book is also invaluable to