Earthquake Phenomenology from the Field: The April 20, 2013, Lushan Earthquake

142 Pages·2014·12.52 MB·English

by  Zhongliang Wu

SPRINGER BRIEFS IN EARTH SCIENCES
Zhongliang Wu
Changsheng Jiang
Xiaojun Li
Guangjun Li
Zhifeng Ding
Earthquake
Phenomenology
from the Field
The April 20, 2013,
Lushan Earthquake
SpringerBriefs in Earth Sciences
For further volumes:
http://www.springer.com/series/8897
Zhongliang Wu · Changsheng Jiang · Xiaojun Li
Guangjun Li · Zhifeng Ding
Earthquake Phenomenology
from the Field
The April 20, 2013, Lushan Earthquake
1 3
Zhongliang Wu Guangjun Li
Changsheng Jiang Earthquake Administration of Sichuan
Xiaojun Li Province
Zhifeng Ding Chengdu
China Earthquake Administration China
Institute of Geophysics
Beijing
China
ISSN 2191-5369 ISSN 2191-5377 (electronic)
ISBN 978-981-4585-13-2 ISBN 978-981-4585-15-6 (eBook)
DOI 10.1007/978-981-4585-15-6
Springer Singapore Heidelberg New York Dordrecht London
Library of Congress Control Number: 2014939941
© The Author(s) 2014
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Dedicated to Jiayong He (1962–2014)
one of the active team members of the Field
Investigation of the 2013 Lushan Earthquake
Contents
1 The April 20, 2013, Lushan, Sichuan, China,
Earthquake: An Overview .................................... 1
1.1 Parameters of the Earthquake ............................... 1
1.2 Disasters of the Earthquake and Timeliness
of the Emergency Response ................................ 6
1.2.1 Emergency Response to the Earthquake ................ 6
1.2.2 Disasters of the Lushan Earthquake Testing
the Wenchuan Reconstruction ........................ 9
1.3 Studies on the Earthquake ................................. 10
1.4 Summary .............................................. 11
References .................................................. 11
2 The Field Investigation of the Earthquake ....................... 13
2.1 Scientific Issues Related to the Field Investigation .............. 13
2.2 The Field Investigation of the 2013 Lushan Earthquake .......... 16
2.2.1 Field Investigation in the Stage
of Earthquake Emergency ........................... 16
2.2.2 Post-Earthquake Field Investigation and Studies .......... 18
2.3 Concluding Remarks ..................................... 21
References .................................................. 21
3 Tectonic Setting of the Earthquake ............................. 23
3.1 Geodynamic Background .................................. 23
3.2 The Seismo-Tectonics of the Lushan Earthquake:
Different Views, and Their Evidences ........................ 24
3.2.1 Surface Rupture and Active Faults ..................... 24
3.2.2 Deep Structure of the Vicinity of the Seismic Source ...... 26
3.2.3 The Lushan Puzzle ................................. 28
3.3 Summary and Discussion .................................. 28
3.3.1 The Blind-Lame Combination
of Seismology and Tectonics ......................... 28
3.3.2 The Role of the ‘Missing Earthquakes’
in Seismic Hazard Assessment ........................ 30
References .................................................. 30
vii
viii Contents
4 Aftershock Sequence: Monitoring and Analysis .................. 33
4.1 Introduction ............................................ 33
4.2 Aftershock Monitoring .................................... 34
4.3 Relocation of the Aftershocks .............................. 36
4.4 Statistical Analysis of Sequence Parameters
by Fitting the ETAS Model ................................ 37
4.4.1 The Epidemic-Type Aftershock Sequence Model ......... 37
4.4.2 ETAS Parameters in the Early Stage
of the Lushan Earthquake Sequence ................... 39
4.5 Summary and Discussion .................................. 40
References .................................................. 44
5 An Aftershock of the 2008 Wenchuan Earthquake? ............... 47
5.1 Introduction: Pros and Cons Regarding to Whether
the Lushan Earthquake is One of the Late Aftershocks
of the Wenchuan Earthquake ............................... 47
5.1.1 The Lushan Earthquake is an Aftershock
of the Wenchuan Earthquake ......................... 48
5.1.2 The Lushan Earthquake is Not an Aftershock
of the Wenchuan Earthquake ......................... 48
5.1.3 The Lushan Earthquake is a ‘New’ Mainshock ........... 48
5.1.4 The Lushan Earthquake is Not a New Mainshock ......... 49
5.2 The 2008 Wenchuan Earthquake, and Its Aftershocks ............ 49
5.2.1 The May 12, 2008, Wenchuan Earthquake ............... 49
5.2.2 The Aftershocks of the Wenchuan Earthquake ............ 50
5.3 The Relationship Between the Lushan Earthquake
and the Wenchuan Earthquake from a Statistical Viewpoint ....... 54
5.3.1 Space-Time Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequence
Model and Stochastic Declustering Method ............. 54
5.3.2 Probability for the Lushan Earthquake as an Aftershock,
and Contribution of the Wenchuan Earthquake
to the Occurrence of the Lushan Earthquake ............. 55
5.4 Discussion without Conclusion ............................. 55
References .................................................. 56
6 Scientific Products Serving the Earthquake Emergency ............ 59
6.1 Introduction ............................................ 59
6.2 Timeliness and Contents of the Scientific Products .............. 61
6.2.1 Quickly Determined Parameters ...................... 61
6.2.2 Timeliness of the Scientific Products
and On-going Modification .......................... 62
6.3 Maintenance and Quality Control of the Scientific Products ....... 63
6.3.1 Development of the Information Service System ......... 63
6.3.2 The Infrastructure and Organization Bases
for the Seismological Information Service ............... 64
Contents ix
6.4 Discussion: From Basic Science to Application—
The Technology Readiness Level Related to the
Seismological Information Service .......................... 65
6.5 Summary .............................................. 69
References .................................................. 69
7 An Earthquake Occurred in the Time of the Internet
and the Microblog/Twitter .................................... 71
7.1 The Microblog (Weibo) ................................... 71
7.1.1 Introduction ...................................... 71
7.1.2 The Performance of the Microblogs
in Reporting the Lushan Earthquake ................... 72
7.1.3 Discussion ....................................... 74
7.2 Death Toll Message from the Internet ........................ 74
7.2.1 Introduction ...................................... 74
7.2.2 Death Toll Message and Its Time Dependence ........... 75
7.2.3 Result and Discussion .............................. 75
7.3 Classroom Evacuation Recordings ........................... 77
7.3.1 Introduction ...................................... 77
7.3.2 Observation ...................................... 78
7.3.3 Discussion ....................................... 80
7.4 Summary .............................................. 80
References .................................................. 81
8 Locally Characterized Seismic Destruction Phenomenology ........ 83
8.1 Seismic Intensity and Strong Ground Motion .................. 83
8.2 Destruction Phenomenology ............................... 84
8.2.1 Residential Buildings ............................... 85
8.2.2 Public Buildings ................................... 88
8.3 Lifeline Systems ......................................... 91
8.3.1 Transportation. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 92
8.3.2 Electricity, Telecommunication,
Water Supply and Sewage ........................... 94
References .................................................. 96
9 Time-Dependent Seismic Hazard of the Southern Longmenshan
Fault Zone and the Sichuan-Yunnan Region: Earthquake
Predictability and Its Limit ................................... 99
9.1 The Lushan Earthquake in a CSEP Testing Region .............. 99
9.2 Predictive Assessments of Time-Dependent Seismic
Hazard Priori to the Lushan Earthquake ...................... 101
9.3 Forecast of the Lushan Earthquake? Forward Predictive
Statements and Retrospective Case Studies .................... 103
9.3.1 Predictive Statements in Academic Publications .......... 103
9.3.2 Retrospective Case Reports
of the Precursor-Like Anomalies ...................... 104
x Contents
9.4 Discussion on the Future: A RTP-Like Analysis Focusing
on the Southern Longmenshan Fault Zone .................. 104
References ................................................. 107
10 Concluding Remarks Without Conclusions: Earthquake
and Disaster Phenomenology not yet Included in our Textbooks .... 111
Appendix 1: Studies on the Lushan Earthquake ..................... 113
Appendix 2: F orecasting the Strong Aftershock Hazard Following
the May 12, 2008, Wenchuan Earthquake: A Personal
Retrospective of the International Component ........... 127
Contributors
Zhifeng Ding Institute of Geophysics, China Earthquake Administration, Beijing,
China
Lihua Fang Institute of Geophysics, China Earthquake Administration, Beijing,
China
Shuang Gao Institute of Geophysics, China Earthquake Administration, Beijing,
China
Changsheng Jiang Institute of Geophysics, China Earthquake Administration,
Beijing, China
Hui Jiang Institute of Geophysics, China Earthquake Administration, Beijing, China
Guangjun Li Earthquake Administration of Sichuan Province, Chengdu, China
Ming Li China Earthquake Administration, Beijing, China
Xiaojun Li Institute of Geophysics, China Earthquake Administration, Beijing,
China
Yingchun Li Earthquake Administration of Jiangsu Province, Nanjing, China
Aiwen Liu Institute of Geophysics, China Earthquake Administration, Beijing,
China
Tengfei Ma Institute of Geophysics, China Earthquake Administration, Beijing, China
Zehong Mei Institute of Geophysics, China Earthquake Administration, Beijing,
China
Xingchen Wang Institute of Geophysics, China Earthquake Administration,
Beijing, China
Yushi Wang Institute of Geophysics, China Earthquake Administration, Beijing,
China
Zhongliang Wu Institute of Geophysics, China Earthquake Administration,
Beijing, China
Shengfeng Zhang Institute of Geophysics, China Earthquake Administration,
Beijing, China
xi