Earthquake Hazard and Seismic Risk Reduction PDF
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Earthquake Hazard and Seismic Risk Reduction Advances in Natural and Technological Hazards Research VOLUME 12 EDITORIAL BOARD Wang Ang-Sheng, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Beijing, P.R. China Gerhard Berz, MOnchener ROckversicherungs-Gesellschaft, MOnchen, Germany Oscar Gonzalez-Ferrfm, Departemento de Geologia y Geofisica, Facultad de Ciencias Fisicas y Mathematicas, Universidad De Chile, Santiago, ~hinle Terry Jeggle, Secretariat for the International Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction, Palais des Nations, Geneva, Switzerland Cinna Lomnitz, National University of Mexico, Instituto de Geofisica, Mexico, D. F. Mexico Tad S. Murty, Baird & Associates, Ottawa, Ontario, Canada Alvin H. Mushkatel, Office of Hazards Studies, Center for Public Affairs, Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ, USA Joanne M. Nigg, Disaster Research Center, University of Delaware, Newark, DE, USA Alexei V. Nikolaev, Institute of Physics of the Earth, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russia Paul M. Thompson, Flood Hazard Research Center, Middlesex University, Enfield, UK Donald A. Wilhite, International Drought Information Center, University of Nebraska, Lincoln, NE, USA The titles published in this series are listed at the end of this volume. Earthquake Hazard and Seismic Risk Reduction Edited by SERGUEI BALASSANIAN Armenian National Survey for Seismic Protection, Yerevan, Republic of Armenia ARMANDO CISTERNAS Institut de Physique du Globe de Strasbourg, France and MIKAEL MELKUMYAN Armenian National Survey for Seismic Protection, Yerevan, Republic of Armenia SPRINGER-SCIENCE+BUSINESS MEDIA, BV. A C.i.P. Catalogue record for this book is available from the Library of Congress. ISBN 978-90-481-5497-5 ISBN 978-94-015-9544-5 (eBook) DOI 10.1007/978-94-015-9544-5 Printed on acid-free paper All Rights Reserved © 2000 Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht Originally published by Kluwer Academic Publishers in 2000 Softcover reprint of the hardcover 1s t edition 2000 No part of the material protected by this copyright notice may be reproduced or utilized in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical, including photocopying, recording or by any information storage and retrieval system, without written permission from the copyright owner TABLE OF CONTENTS ix Preface Acknowledgments xiii Part I. Disaster Reduction S. Balassanian Seismic Risk Reduction Strategy in the XXI Century Shirley Mattingly Building Local Capacity for Earthquake Loss Reduction 13 Charles Kelly Disaster Assistance in Cold Weather Conditions: an Overview of Issues and Options 21 H Kitajima Actual State of Technical Cooperation on Earthquake Disaster Prevention Case Study: JICA Earthquake Disaster Prevention Project in Mexico 31 Kenji Okazaki Radius Initiative for IDNDR a Practical Approach to Reduce Urban Seismic Risk 41 R. K. Shaw, F. Kaneko, S. Segawa, J. Sun Urban Seismic Risk Mitigation in Asia: Examples From Radius Case Studies 49 A. M. Dixit, L. Dwelley-Samant, M. Nakarmi, S.B. Pradhanang, B. Tucker The Kathmandu Valley Earthquake Risk Management Project (KVERMP): Project Motivation and Description 69 A. Tarverdyan The Role of the Subjective Factors in the Seismic Risk 75 Part II. Earthquake Hazard Harsh K. Gupta Major and Great Earthquakes on the Himalayan Region: an Overview 79 R.E. Tatevossian, S. S..Arefiev, HHaessler Seismicity of the Spitak Earthquake Source Zone Vicinity 87 A. K. Tovmasyan Southern Javakhet Earthquake Swarm. Stress Tensor Orientation Derived from Focal Mechanism Data 99 vi z., s., Smit P., Arzoumanian v., Javakhishvili Arefiev Mayer-Rosa D., s., Balassanian Chelidze T The Digital Accelerograph Network in the Caucasus 109 M Tiv Implications of the Duration of Strong Ground Motion: (Observations from the U. S. Lorna Prieta Earthquake of Oct. 17, 1989) 119 V. Zaalishvili, 0. Sulaberidze, T Chelidze, 0. Varazanashvili, Z. Javakhishvili Seismicity and Cultural Monuments of Georgia 127 V. Zaalishvili, S. Gogmachadze Geomorphological Aspects of the Forming of Earthquake Intensity Effect in Highlands 13 7 0. Kuranova, A. Odisharia, V. Zaalishvili On Estimation of Dominant Vibration Periods of Site 145 H. K. Mkrtchian A Major Neotectonic Structure Within the Arabia - Eurasia Collisional Orogen: the Ararat - Araks Conjugate Fault System and its Possible Impact on the Safety of the Metsamor Nuclear Power Plant 153 G. Gabrichidze One Inequality of Elastokinetics and its Application in Seismology 163 S. Balassanian Earthquake Prediction Research for Current Seismic Hazard Assessment in Armenia 169 G.A.Sobolev, A. v.Ponomarev, Yu.s. Tyupkin The Stages of Earthquake Preparation: Laboratory Experiment and Field Study 211 T Chelidze Earthquake Prediction: Pro and Contra 225 A.A. Belyaev, V.A.Igumnov Method of Analysis of Geochemical Oscillations to Earthquake Prediction 231 Ding Jianhai, Chen Xuezhong, Liu Jie, Huang Xuexiang, Sun Zhanao, Yu Surong, Li Kaiwu Earthquake Prediction Research in China: Zhangbei Ms=6.2 Earthquake on January 10, 1998 239 E. Lagios Intense Crustal Deformation Rates on Nissyros Island (Greece), Deduced from GPS Studies, May Foreshadow a Forthcoming Volcanic Event 249 E. Lagios, G. Sideris, F. Zervos, P. Tsourlos, R.A. Nicholson, AI. Ponomarev, B. Sa/ov, S. Ba/assanian, H. Petrosyan, S. Bushati, 0. Lika Tectonic Early Warning System Through Real-Time Radon (Rn) Monitoring: Preliminary Results of a Geophysical Method for Forecasting Earthquakes 261 vii R.A. Movsessyan The Results of Theoretical Researches of the Geodesic-Deformed Herald of Earthquakes 271 D. Lungu, A.Zaicenco, A.Aldea, C. Arion, T Cornea Seismic Hazard Zonation in Eastern Europe 281 A. A. Moin/ar, A. Naderzadeh, E. Maleki A New Seismic Hazard Map for the Implementation in the National Physical Planning ofIran 289 Part III. Earthquake Engineering M Melkumyan Ten Years After the 1988 Spitak Earthquake: Reconstruction and New Lines of Earthquake Engineering Development in Armenia 297 J. M Eisenberg The Lessons of Armenia-Spitak, 1988, and Other Recent Earthquakes in View of Seismic Building Codes Improvement 301 T G. Markaryan, S. G. Shahinian The Nature of Spitak Earthquake Occurred on December 7, 1988. Reinforcement and Repair Technology of Buildings and Constructions 309 E. Luz Some Structural Aspects of Buildings Destroyed in the Spitak Earthquake 317 M Tomaievic Seismic Upgrading of Existing Stone-Masonry Buildings: Lessons From the Earthquake of Bovec of 1998 325 E. E. Khachian On Basic Concepts for Development of United International Earthquake Resistant Construction Code 333 TMukhadze, 1. Timchenko Analysis of New Seismic Building Codes of CIS Countries 345 T Saito Recent Techniques and Regulations on Seismic Retrofit and Diagnosis for Buildings in Japan 351 T G. Markaryan, L.A. Davidian Some Main Principles of New Republic Codes on Design and Construction of Seismic- Resistant Masonry Structures 359 F. Casciati, L. Faravelli, S. Podesta Internet Availability of the Vulnerability Database 363 viii M Tomaievic Assessment of Damage and Usability of Earthquake-Damaged Buildings: Experience of Slovenia 371 K.N.G. Fuller, C.L. Lim, S. Loo, M Melkumyan, K. Muniandy Design and Testing of High Damping Rubber Earthquake Bearings for Retrofit Project in Armenia 379 FuLinZhou The Research, Application and Design Code of Seismic Isolation and Energy Dissipation in China 387 L.A. Aghalovian On one Approach of Studying the Free and Forced Vibrations of Bases and Fundaments of Structures 395 V Renda, G. Verzeletti, G. Magonette, J. Molina, D. Tirelli, F Bono Activities of the European Laboratory for Structural Assessment for Seismic Risk Reduction in Europe 403 P. Keshishian, A. Der Kiureghian Effects of Incoherence, Wave Passage and Spatially Varying Site Conditions on Bridge Response 413 R.S.Azoyan, A.N.Sargsyan, T. G.Petrosyan The Impact of the System of Ties Upon the Level of Seismic Effect for Road Beam Bridges 425 L. A. Aghalovian, R. S. Gevorgyan The Asymptotic Solution of Some Model Problems of Seismostability Construction and Seismology 433 PREFACE In 1998 Armenia was commemorating the tenth anniversary of the catastrophic Spitak earthquake. The Second International Conference on "Earthquake Hazard and Seismic Risk Reduction" sponsored by the Government of the Republic of Armenia and United Nation's International Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction (UN/IDNDR) was held in dedication to that event between 14-21 September (later referred to as Yerevan Conference). The Yerevan Conference has been organized by the National Survey for Seismic Protection (NSSP) of the Republic of Armenia. All level's decision-makers (from the ministers to the local authorities), politicians, scientists, leaders of the executive and legislative powers, psychologists, leading businessmen, representatives from the private sector and the media as well as from the International Organizations have been invited by the Armenian NSSP to take part in joint discussion of the Seismic Risk Reduction Problem for the first time in the history of such forums. Armenian NSSP's such initiative has been triggered by the experience of the Spitak earthquake and other disasters. They showed that it will be possible to reduce the risks, posed by the natural disaster, only through the common efforts of all the community in co-operation with the International institutions. The Yerevan Conference has brought together more than 400 participants from 43 countries and summed up the achievements and experiences of different countries in disaster reduction since 1988, provided a deep scientific evaluation of Earthquake Hazard, Earthquake Engineering and Seismic Risk Reduction problems as well as discussed possible models and strategies for disaster reduction in the XXI century. The Yerevan Conference has served for the UN as the IDNDR Regional Conference for the countries of the Commonwealth Independent States (CIS) and Central and Eastern Europe and played crucial role in the regional consolidation of the achievements of disaster reduction during the decade and the projection of the risks that the region will be faced in the forth coming millennium. It is noted in the Yerevan Declaration adopted at the Yerevan conference that with the increasing scale of disasters that experts project for the XXI century, scientists, local, regional and national authorities and religious community leaders must come together in order to devise a strategy for the prevention of the impacts of hazards on the population, vital infrastructure and property. Particular emphasis must be placed on the protection of vital social and economic infrastructure because these are intimately linked to the ability of a country to function appropriately, for the guarantee of business continuity and hence economic growth, and the potential of a country to prosper and develop. The subsequent stressed that disaster reduction should be a major priority in regional, national and international development and civil protection strategies. While there have been notable achievements in natural disaster reduction during the Decade, and while awareness of risk from natural disasters has increased considerably at the global scale, there remain areas where loss of life and the impoverishment of large communities continue to increase at an alarming rate. The participants anticipate that the severity and frequency of natural and environmental disasters, and their impact on society, will intensify in near future. The participants reaffirmed the central importance of disaster reduction as an essential element of government policy. Recent events and disasters have again demonstrated the need for IX
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