Dynamics of the Vietnam W ar PDF
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Jeffrey S. Milstein Dynamics of the Vietnam W ar A Quantitative Analysis and Predictive Computer Simulation $12.50 Dynamics of the Vietnam War A Quantitative Analysis and Predictive Computer Simulation By Jeffrey S. Milstein Effective policy depends in substantial part on the capacity of policy-makers to predict accu rately the consequences of their actions; and this ability depends in turn on their having a valid theory or "model" of the relationships be tween their actions and their effects, between means and ends. Two different models, those employed by hawks and doves, were inherent in the princi pal positions that were taken by policy-makers and their critics in the long and acrimonious debate on how and whether the Vietnam War was to be fought and what were or should be the goals of the United States in fighting or getting out. The hawk and dove models are essentially folk theories; that is, they are pre sumptive notions about international behavior in a limited conflict, and incorporate simplified versions of certain theories of huma n behavior. They represent quite different perceptions of the nature of the war and those waging it, the propriety and utility of American involvement, the probable outcome of the conflict, and the steps that should be taken either to achieve or to avoid the end predicted. Examination of these models is of critical importance to assess their validity and there fore their soundness as the basis for making policy decisions, as well as to understand why so many of the policies and plans that were de signed to end the war instead prolonged and expanded it. How valid the folk theories are that inform policies and govern actions deter mines ho w well policy-makers are able to pre dict and evaluate the consequences of their ow n actions. The accuracy of those predictions has important implications for the political process. If, for example, principal policy-makers had accurately predicted that their Vietnam policies would fail to achieve their publicly announced objectives, one could infer quite different mo tives and political principles to the makers of policy than are commonly assumed to be those (Continued on back flap) Dynamics of the Vietnam War Jeffrey S . Milstein Dynamics of the Vietnam W ar A Quantitative Analysis and Predictive Computer Simulation Ohio State University Press : Columbus Copyright © 1974 by the Ohio State University Press All Rights Reserved Manufactured in the United States of America Library of Congress Cataloging in Publication Data Milstein, Jeffery S Dynamics of the Vietnam War . Bibliography: p . 1. Vietnamese Conflict, 1961 2. Digital computer simulation. 3. Electronic data processing- Multivariate analysis. I. Title. DS557.A6M48 5 959.704'3'02854044 73-17351 ISBN 0-8142-0190-3 To my children—Steven, David, and Elise—and to all children, with the fervent hope that they ma y never experience war
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