Dynamics of Technological Change

540 Pages·1991·8.367 MB·English

by  Louis A. Girifalco (auth.)

DYNAMICS OF
TECHNOLOGICAL CHANGE
DYNAMICS OF
TECHNOLOGICAL
CHANGE
Louis A. Girifalco
The University of Pennsylvania
tnm;I VAN NOSTRAND REINHOLD
~ _ _ _N ewYork
Copyright © 1991 by Van Nostrand Reinhold
Softcover reprint of the hardcover 1s t ed ition 1991
Library of Congress Catalog Card Number 90-45717
ISBN-13: 978-1-4684-6511-2 e-ISBN-13: 978-1-4684-6509-9
001: 10.1007/978-1-4684-6509-9
All rights reserved. No part of this work covered by
the copyright hereon may be reproduced or used in any
form by any means-graphic, electronic, or
mechanical, including photocopying, recording, taping,
or information storage and retrieval systems-without
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Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
Girifalco, L. A. (Louis A.)
Dynamics of technological change / Louis A. Girifalco.
p. cm.
Includes bibliographical reference and index.
1. Technological innovations. I. Title. II. Title.
Technological change.
T173.9.G57 1991 90-45717
60O-dc CIP
To the memory of my father
who lived his life for family, honor, and truth
and to my advisor, Robert J. Good,
who transformed me from a student
into a colleague
Contents
List of Figures in Text x
List of Figures in Appendix 1 Xlll
List of Tables in Text XIV
Preface XVII
Chapter 1. Basic Concepts of Technological Change 1
Defining Technological Change 1
Measuring Technological Change 8
Theories of Technological Change 12
Determinants of Technological Change 20
Enterprises, Systems, and Hierarchies 28
Five Patterns 30
Interactions Among Systemic Trends 40
A Systemic Model of Technological Change 40
Chapter 2. Technical Progress and Performance 46
Aspects of Technological Progress 46
Measurement of Technical Performance 49
Case Study: Aviation 55
The Learning Curve 60
Production Costs and the Learning Curve 63
Case Study: Farm Tractors 67
Case Study: Underground Coal Mining 73
Chapter 3. Innovation, Research, and Development 80
Clusters and Waves 80
Frequency of Innovation 81
The Origin of Clustering 86
Inventions and Time Lags 88
Innovation and Business Cycles 91
The Origins of Innovations 95
The Effect of Corporate Size 99
Functions of R&D 101
Definitions of Success in R&D 104
Technological Cycles and R&D 106
The Technology-Driven Corporate Cycle 109
Technological Discontinuities 112
vii
viii Contents
The R&D Portfolio 115
Characteristics of Industrial R&D 119
Determinants of Successful R&D 123
Chapter 4. Technological Diffusion and Substitution 130
Technological Diffusion 130
Diffusion Analysis 136
Substitution Analysis 143
Multilevel Substitution 145
The Diesel Locomotive: An Example of Binary Substitution 148
The Diffusion of Radio Broadcasting 154
Steelmaking: An Example of Multilevel Substitution 160
Results of Diffusion and Substitution Studies 165
Nuclear Power: A Case of Interrupted Substitution 169
Diffusion and the Clustering of Technologies 170
Some Comments on Causal Factors 173
Chapter 5. The Dynamics of Energy Usage 176
The Energy Transition 176
Energy Sources 183
Energy in the Economy 185
The Efficiency of Energy Utilization 195
Patterns of Consumption 205
The Energy Inventory 215
Patterns of Production: The Hewett-Hubbert Model 225
Chapter 6. The Electronic Digital Computer 230
Significance of the Computer 230
The Precursors 233
COLOSSUS 241
The ENIAC 242
Turing and von Neumann 247
Downfall of the Moore School 251
Post-ENIAC Machines 253
Computer Companies 258
Evolution of Modern Computer Technology 266
Computer Performance 269
Diffusion of Computers 279
Summary 282
Chapter 7. The Industrial Transition 285
Measures of Industrialization 285
World Industrialization 288
Economic Growth and Industrialization 295
Postwar World Economic Growth 298
Contents ix
Catch-Up 302
The First Transition 305
The American Transition 309
Material Resources 321
Materials and World Industrialization 326
Appendix 1. Mathematics of Technological Growth 335
Forms of Growth Laws 339
Properties of the Exponential 343
Properties of the Logistic 348
Properties of the Decaying Exponential Rise 351
The Gompertz Equation 353
Superacceleration 354
Competitive Growth 356
Multilevel Substitution 359
The Lognormal Distribution 360
Horizontal Analysis 366
Learning Curves and Technological Progress 366
Data Smoothing 370
Appendix 2. Chronology of Innovation 372
Appendix 3. Data Tables 411
List of Tables 416
References 490
Additional Readings 495
Index 515
List of Figures in Text
1-1 Long Cycles of Innovation According to Mensch 32
1-2 Efficiency of Incandescent Lamps 33
1-3 Efficiency of Fluorescent Lamps 34
1-4 Efficiency of Artificial Light Sources 35
1-5 Percent of Households with Television 36
1-6 Learning Curve for Pressman Productivity 38
1-7 Frequency Distribution of Research Funds at Ninety-One
Universities 39
1-8 Schematic of the Systemic Model of Technological Change 44
2-1 Horsepower to Engine Weight Ratio of Reciprocating Aircraft
Engines 56
2-2 Consecutive Maximum Cruising Speed of U.S. Commercial
Aircraft 58
2-3 Passenger Miles per Hour of Commercial Aircraft (Consecutive
Values) 59
2-4 Maximum U.S. Military Aircraft Speeds 60
2-5 Cost Curves for Learning and Prorating of Initial Costs: Low Production
Volumes 65
2-6 Cost Curves for Learning and Prorating of Initial Costs: High Production
Volumes 66
2-7 Successive Maximum Tractor Fuel Efficiencies 70
2-8 Mechanical Efficiency of Tractors 71
2-9 Total Efficiency of Tractors 72
2-10 Learning Curve for Fuel Efficiency of Tractors 72
2-11 Learning Curve for Total Efficiency of Tractors 73
2-12 Cumulative Number of Tractors Produced Worldwide 74
2-13 Labor Productivity in Underground Coal Mining 77
2-14 Test of Learning Curve Equation for the Productivity of Underground
Coal Mining 78
3-1 Nine-Year Running Sum of Major Innovations from Data of van
Duijn 83
3-2 Nine-Year Running Sum of Innovations from Data of
Girifalco 84
3-3 Innovations in the Farm Equipment Industry: Five-Year Running
Sum 84
3-4 Major Semiconductor Product Innovations: Five-Year Running
Sum 85
3-5 Major Semiconductor Process Innovations: Five-Year Running
Sum 85
3-6 Number of Television Innovations per Decade 86
3-7 Number of Major Inventions: Nine-Year Running Sum 89
3-8 Time Lags Between Inventions and Innovations 89
3-9 Mean Time Lags Between Inventions and Innovations 90
3-10 Ideal Technological Growth Curve 108
x
List of Figures in Text xi
3-11 Ideal Technological Productivity Curve 108
3-12 Productivity Advantage of a New Technology 109
3-13 Model Corporate Growth Curve 110
3-14 Market Shares of Piston, Turboprop, and Jet Engine Aircraft 113
3-15 The Technological Discontinuity 114
3-16 Technology Portfolio of Petrov 117
3-17 The Dynamic Technology Portfolio 118
4-1 The Generalized Logistic with Different Delay Coefficients 142
4-2 Fraction of New and Old Technologies During a Substitution 145
4-3 Three-Level Technological Substitution 148
4-4 First Adoptions of the Diesel Locomotive 150
4-5 The Number of Diesel Locomotives in Service in the United
States 152
4-6 Fraction of Diesel and of Steam Locomotives in Service in the United
States 152
4-7 Number of Commercial Radio Stations in the United States 160
4-8 Percent of Households with Radios in the United States: Curve
Computed from P = 1 - exp( -0.09938*YR + 1923.4) 161
4-9 Multilevel Substitution of Steelmaking Technologies 164
4-10 Fraction of Electricity Generated by Nuclear Energy in the United
States: Curve Computed from F = 1/[1 + exp( -0.27519* YR +
546.065)J 170
4-11 Annual Telegraph Messages per Capita for Western Union 171
4-12 Incandescent Lamps per Capita Produced in the United States 172
5-1 Long-Term Energy Usage versus Time 177
5-2 Annual Energy Consumption in the U.S. per Capita 177
5-3 Fraction of Fuel Use from Mineral Sources in the United States 179
5-4 Fraction of Energy Consumption by Source 179
5-5 World Energy Consumption per Capita 182
5-6 Integral Distribution of per Capita World Energy Consumption 182
5-7 United States Fossil Fuel Costs as Fraction of GNP 187
5-8 Expenditures on Fuel and Electricity in the United States as a Fraction
of GNP 188
5-9 Relation Between GNP and Energy Consumption in the United
States 189
5-10 Energy-GNP Ratio for the United States 191
5-11 Relation Between Energy Consumption and GDP for 102 Countries in
1960 193
5-12 Relation Between Energy Consumption and GDP for 106 Countries in
1979 193
5-13 Steam Engine Efficiencies 202
5-14 Thermal Efficiency of Electricity Generation 203
5-15 Rail Freight Transport Efficiency in Ton-Miles Per toOO Btu's 203
5-16 Miles per Gallon of U.S. Passenger Vehicles 204
5-17 Flow of Energy from Source to End Use 206
5-18 Fraction of Energy Use in Economic Sectors 207
5-19 Electricity Production in the United States 211
5-20 Percent of United States Dwellings with Electric Service: Curve
Computed from P = exp(0.96558*YR - 181.9165) 212
xii List of Figures in Text
5-21 Fraction of Primary Energy Consumption Used for Electricity Generation
in the United States 213
5-22 Total United States Annual Oil Consumption 214
5-23 Auto Registrations per Capita in United States 215
5-24 Classification of Mineral Resources 217
5-25 Cumulative Oil Production in the United States 227
5-26 Annual Production of Oil in the United States 228
6-1 Maximum Scientific Computing Power 275
6-2 Maximum Commercial Computing Power 275
6-3 Computer Power per unit Cost in Operation per Second per
Penny 276
6-4 Maximum Addition Rate for Computers with Higher Addition Rates than
any Previous Computer 276
6-5 Successive Maxima of Computer Power: NSF Index 277
6-6 Successive Maxima of Computer Power: L.A.G. Index Using NSF Data:
In(index) = [2ln(speed) + In(memJl3 278
6-7 NSF Data for Memory and Speed of Computers 278
6-8 NSF Data on Computer Cost for Computers with Maximum Performance
in KOPS Per Dollar 279
6-9 The Diffusion of Computer Capacity in the United States in OPS per
Capita 282
7-1 Ratio of Industrial Level of U.S. and U.K. to the Rest of the
World 289
7-2 Ratio of Industrial Level of Developed to Underdeveloped
Countries 290
7-3 Industrial Level of the United States and the United Kingdom as a
Function of Time 291
7-4 Industrial Level of Japan as a Function of Time 292
7-5 Industrial Level of the World as a Function of Time 292
7-6 Growth Rate of Industrial Level Versus Date of Industrial
Takeoff 294
7-7 Consumption of Steel per Capita in the United States: Five-Year Moving
Average 313
7-8 Installed Nonautomotive Horsepower in the United States 314
7-9 Installed Horsepower in Factories and Mines in the United States 315
7 -10 Installed Horsepower on United States Farms 316
7 -11 Installed Horsepower in Electric Generating Plants 317
7 -12 Automotive Horsepower per Capita in the United States 317
7-13 GNP per Capita From Berry/Rostow Data: Five-Year Moving
Average 319
7-14 GNP per Capita From Government Data 320
7-15 Silver Production Cycles of the Comstock Lode 324
7-16 The Demographic Transition 331