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Dynamics of Technological Change PDF

540 Pages·1991·8.367 MB·English
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DYNAMICS OF TECHNOLOGICAL CHANGE DYNAMICS OF TECHNOLOGICAL CHANGE Louis A. Girifalco The University of Pennsylvania tnm;I VAN NOSTRAND REINHOLD ~ _ _ _N ewYork Copyright © 1991 by Van Nostrand Reinhold Softcover reprint of the hardcover 1s t ed ition 1991 Library of Congress Catalog Card Number 90-45717 ISBN-13: 978-1-4684-6511-2 e-ISBN-13: 978-1-4684-6509-9 001: 10.1007/978-1-4684-6509-9 All rights reserved. No part of this work covered by the copyright hereon may be reproduced or used in any form by any means-graphic, electronic, or mechanical, including photocopying, recording, taping, or information storage and retrieval systems-without written permission of the publisher. Van Nostrand Reinhold 115 Fifth Avenue New York, New York 10003 Chapman and Hall 2-6 Boundary Row London, SEI 8HN, England Thomas Nelson Australia 102 Dodds Street South Melbourne 3205 Victoria, Australia Nelson Canada 1120 Birchmount Road Scarborough, Ontario MIK 5G4, Canada 16 15 14 13 12 11 10 987 6 5 4 3 2 1 Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Girifalco, L. A. (Louis A.) Dynamics of technological change / Louis A. Girifalco. p. cm. Includes bibliographical reference and index. 1. Technological innovations. I. Title. II. Title. Technological change. T173.9.G57 1991 90-45717 60O-dc CIP To the memory of my father who lived his life for family, honor, and truth and to my advisor, Robert J. Good, who transformed me from a student into a colleague Contents List of Figures in Text x List of Figures in Appendix 1 Xlll List of Tables in Text XIV Preface XVII Chapter 1. Basic Concepts of Technological Change 1 Defining Technological Change 1 Measuring Technological Change 8 Theories of Technological Change 12 Determinants of Technological Change 20 Enterprises, Systems, and Hierarchies 28 Five Patterns 30 Interactions Among Systemic Trends 40 A Systemic Model of Technological Change 40 Chapter 2. Technical Progress and Performance 46 Aspects of Technological Progress 46 Measurement of Technical Performance 49 Case Study: Aviation 55 The Learning Curve 60 Production Costs and the Learning Curve 63 Case Study: Farm Tractors 67 Case Study: Underground Coal Mining 73 Chapter 3. Innovation, Research, and Development 80 Clusters and Waves 80 Frequency of Innovation 81 The Origin of Clustering 86 Inventions and Time Lags 88 Innovation and Business Cycles 91 The Origins of Innovations 95 The Effect of Corporate Size 99 Functions of R&D 101 Definitions of Success in R&D 104 Technological Cycles and R&D 106 The Technology-Driven Corporate Cycle 109 Technological Discontinuities 112 vii viii Contents The R&D Portfolio 115 Characteristics of Industrial R&D 119 Determinants of Successful R&D 123 Chapter 4. Technological Diffusion and Substitution 130 Technological Diffusion 130 Diffusion Analysis 136 Substitution Analysis 143 Multilevel Substitution 145 The Diesel Locomotive: An Example of Binary Substitution 148 The Diffusion of Radio Broadcasting 154 Steelmaking: An Example of Multilevel Substitution 160 Results of Diffusion and Substitution Studies 165 Nuclear Power: A Case of Interrupted Substitution 169 Diffusion and the Clustering of Technologies 170 Some Comments on Causal Factors 173 Chapter 5. The Dynamics of Energy Usage 176 The Energy Transition 176 Energy Sources 183 Energy in the Economy 185 The Efficiency of Energy Utilization 195 Patterns of Consumption 205 The Energy Inventory 215 Patterns of Production: The Hewett-Hubbert Model 225 Chapter 6. The Electronic Digital Computer 230 Significance of the Computer 230 The Precursors 233 COLOSSUS 241 The ENIAC 242 Turing and von Neumann 247 Downfall of the Moore School 251 Post-ENIAC Machines 253 Computer Companies 258 Evolution of Modern Computer Technology 266 Computer Performance 269 Diffusion of Computers 279 Summary 282 Chapter 7. The Industrial Transition 285 Measures of Industrialization 285 World Industrialization 288 Economic Growth and Industrialization 295 Postwar World Economic Growth 298 Contents ix Catch-Up 302 The First Transition 305 The American Transition 309 Material Resources 321 Materials and World Industrialization 326 Appendix 1. Mathematics of Technological Growth 335 Forms of Growth Laws 339 Properties of the Exponential 343 Properties of the Logistic 348 Properties of the Decaying Exponential Rise 351 The Gompertz Equation 353 Superacceleration 354 Competitive Growth 356 Multilevel Substitution 359 The Lognormal Distribution 360 Horizontal Analysis 366 Learning Curves and Technological Progress 366 Data Smoothing 370 Appendix 2. Chronology of Innovation 372 Appendix 3. Data Tables 411 List of Tables 416 References 490 Additional Readings 495 Index 515 List of Figures in Text 1-1 Long Cycles of Innovation According to Mensch 32 1-2 Efficiency of Incandescent Lamps 33 1-3 Efficiency of Fluorescent Lamps 34 1-4 Efficiency of Artificial Light Sources 35 1-5 Percent of Households with Television 36 1-6 Learning Curve for Pressman Productivity 38 1-7 Frequency Distribution of Research Funds at Ninety-One Universities 39 1-8 Schematic of the Systemic Model of Technological Change 44 2-1 Horsepower to Engine Weight Ratio of Reciprocating Aircraft Engines 56 2-2 Consecutive Maximum Cruising Speed of U.S. Commercial Aircraft 58 2-3 Passenger Miles per Hour of Commercial Aircraft (Consecutive Values) 59 2-4 Maximum U.S. Military Aircraft Speeds 60 2-5 Cost Curves for Learning and Prorating of Initial Costs: Low Production Volumes 65 2-6 Cost Curves for Learning and Prorating of Initial Costs: High Production Volumes 66 2-7 Successive Maximum Tractor Fuel Efficiencies 70 2-8 Mechanical Efficiency of Tractors 71 2-9 Total Efficiency of Tractors 72 2-10 Learning Curve for Fuel Efficiency of Tractors 72 2-11 Learning Curve for Total Efficiency of Tractors 73 2-12 Cumulative Number of Tractors Produced Worldwide 74 2-13 Labor Productivity in Underground Coal Mining 77 2-14 Test of Learning Curve Equation for the Productivity of Underground Coal Mining 78 3-1 Nine-Year Running Sum of Major Innovations from Data of van Duijn 83 3-2 Nine-Year Running Sum of Innovations from Data of Girifalco 84 3-3 Innovations in the Farm Equipment Industry: Five-Year Running Sum 84 3-4 Major Semiconductor Product Innovations: Five-Year Running Sum 85 3-5 Major Semiconductor Process Innovations: Five-Year Running Sum 85 3-6 Number of Television Innovations per Decade 86 3-7 Number of Major Inventions: Nine-Year Running Sum 89 3-8 Time Lags Between Inventions and Innovations 89 3-9 Mean Time Lags Between Inventions and Innovations 90 3-10 Ideal Technological Growth Curve 108 x List of Figures in Text xi 3-11 Ideal Technological Productivity Curve 108 3-12 Productivity Advantage of a New Technology 109 3-13 Model Corporate Growth Curve 110 3-14 Market Shares of Piston, Turboprop, and Jet Engine Aircraft 113 3-15 The Technological Discontinuity 114 3-16 Technology Portfolio of Petrov 117 3-17 The Dynamic Technology Portfolio 118 4-1 The Generalized Logistic with Different Delay Coefficients 142 4-2 Fraction of New and Old Technologies During a Substitution 145 4-3 Three-Level Technological Substitution 148 4-4 First Adoptions of the Diesel Locomotive 150 4-5 The Number of Diesel Locomotives in Service in the United States 152 4-6 Fraction of Diesel and of Steam Locomotives in Service in the United States 152 4-7 Number of Commercial Radio Stations in the United States 160 4-8 Percent of Households with Radios in the United States: Curve Computed from P = 1 - exp( -0.09938*YR + 1923.4) 161 4-9 Multilevel Substitution of Steelmaking Technologies 164 4-10 Fraction of Electricity Generated by Nuclear Energy in the United States: Curve Computed from F = 1/[1 + exp( -0.27519* YR + 546.065)J 170 4-11 Annual Telegraph Messages per Capita for Western Union 171 4-12 Incandescent Lamps per Capita Produced in the United States 172 5-1 Long-Term Energy Usage versus Time 177 5-2 Annual Energy Consumption in the U.S. per Capita 177 5-3 Fraction of Fuel Use from Mineral Sources in the United States 179 5-4 Fraction of Energy Consumption by Source 179 5-5 World Energy Consumption per Capita 182 5-6 Integral Distribution of per Capita World Energy Consumption 182 5-7 United States Fossil Fuel Costs as Fraction of GNP 187 5-8 Expenditures on Fuel and Electricity in the United States as a Fraction of GNP 188 5-9 Relation Between GNP and Energy Consumption in the United States 189 5-10 Energy-GNP Ratio for the United States 191 5-11 Relation Between Energy Consumption and GDP for 102 Countries in 1960 193 5-12 Relation Between Energy Consumption and GDP for 106 Countries in 1979 193 5-13 Steam Engine Efficiencies 202 5-14 Thermal Efficiency of Electricity Generation 203 5-15 Rail Freight Transport Efficiency in Ton-Miles Per toOO Btu's 203 5-16 Miles per Gallon of U.S. Passenger Vehicles 204 5-17 Flow of Energy from Source to End Use 206 5-18 Fraction of Energy Use in Economic Sectors 207 5-19 Electricity Production in the United States 211 5-20 Percent of United States Dwellings with Electric Service: Curve Computed from P = exp(0.96558*YR - 181.9165) 212 xii List of Figures in Text 5-21 Fraction of Primary Energy Consumption Used for Electricity Generation in the United States 213 5-22 Total United States Annual Oil Consumption 214 5-23 Auto Registrations per Capita in United States 215 5-24 Classification of Mineral Resources 217 5-25 Cumulative Oil Production in the United States 227 5-26 Annual Production of Oil in the United States 228 6-1 Maximum Scientific Computing Power 275 6-2 Maximum Commercial Computing Power 275 6-3 Computer Power per unit Cost in Operation per Second per Penny 276 6-4 Maximum Addition Rate for Computers with Higher Addition Rates than any Previous Computer 276 6-5 Successive Maxima of Computer Power: NSF Index 277 6-6 Successive Maxima of Computer Power: L.A.G. Index Using NSF Data: In(index) = [2ln(speed) + In(memJl3 278 6-7 NSF Data for Memory and Speed of Computers 278 6-8 NSF Data on Computer Cost for Computers with Maximum Performance in KOPS Per Dollar 279 6-9 The Diffusion of Computer Capacity in the United States in OPS per Capita 282 7-1 Ratio of Industrial Level of U.S. and U.K. to the Rest of the World 289 7-2 Ratio of Industrial Level of Developed to Underdeveloped Countries 290 7-3 Industrial Level of the United States and the United Kingdom as a Function of Time 291 7-4 Industrial Level of Japan as a Function of Time 292 7-5 Industrial Level of the World as a Function of Time 292 7-6 Growth Rate of Industrial Level Versus Date of Industrial Takeoff 294 7-7 Consumption of Steel per Capita in the United States: Five-Year Moving Average 313 7-8 Installed Nonautomotive Horsepower in the United States 314 7-9 Installed Horsepower in Factories and Mines in the United States 315 7 -10 Installed Horsepower on United States Farms 316 7 -11 Installed Horsepower in Electric Generating Plants 317 7 -12 Automotive Horsepower per Capita in the United States 317 7-13 GNP per Capita From Berry/Rostow Data: Five-Year Moving Average 319 7-14 GNP per Capita From Government Data 320 7-15 Silver Production Cycles of the Comstock Lode 324 7-16 The Demographic Transition 331

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