Dynamics of open seat elections for the United States House of Representatives

206 Pages·1994·4.9 MB·English

by  Green, Joanne Marie

DYNAMICS OF OPEN SEAT ELECTIONS FOR THE UNITED STATES HOUSE
OF REPRESENTATIVES
By
JOANNE MARIE GREEN
A DISSERTATION PRESENTED TO THE GRADUATE SCHOOL
OF THE UNIVERSITY OF FLORIDA IN PARTIAL FULFILLMENT
OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE OF
DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY
UNIVERSITY OF FLORIDA
1994
Copyright 1994
by
Joanne Marie Green
The manuscript is dedicated to my mother, Mary Lou, to the
memory of my father, Thomas, and to my loving family, Craig
and Emma. Without all of their support, this work would
never had been possible.
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
My debts of gratitude are many for this project. will
I
always be thankful for all of the assistance and support
which I have received from the Department of Political
Science in general, but also from the specific individuals
listed here. I am in the debt of M. Margaret Conway for her
unending assistance and support. Her influence in this work
extends far from the material support which she so kindly
provided me, but also to a more deeply felt emotional level.
—
She serves as a role model for many individuals including
myself. I am also very thankful to Wayne L. Francis who
spent many hours working with me to refine my thinking and
methodology. The amount of time he's spent with me goes far
—
beyond what is required of an advisor I will always be
grateful to him for that and his kindness. My thanks also
extend to Richard K. Scher whose friendship and intellectual
input has greatly affected this work and my thinking more
generally. Special thanks also go out to Michael M. Martinez
and David Rohde whose comments and feedback have assisted
this project immensely. Thanks also go to Dean Colburn who
graciously agreed to serve on my committee and assist in the
development of the project. While I owe these individuals a
great sense of gratitude, all errors or omissions are mine.
IV
TABLE OF CONTENTS
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS iv
ABSTRACT viii
CHAPTER INTRODUCTION
1 : 1
Criteria for Evaluating Congress as an Institution
3
Key Values That Electoral Reform Should Promote
6
Theories of Representation
7
Unit of Analysis
10
General Characteristics of Open Seat Elections from
1982 through 1992 11
Data Set
14
Candidate Expenditures
15
Candidate Occupational Background and Candidate
Gender
15
National and State Unemployment Data
16
District Presidential Vote and the Vote for the
Prior Incumbent
16
Party Monetary Assistance and Legislative Partisan
Behavioral Loyalty
16
The Percent of Vote for the Democratic Candidate
17
Discussion
17
CHAPTER 2: THE RELATIVE ROLE OF CAMPAIGN EXPENDITURES
AND CANDIDATE QUALITY: DIFFERENTIALS IN ELECTORAL
ADVANTAGES
19
Introduction
19
Disbursements
22
Candidate Quality
32
Discussion
43
CHAPTER 3: NATIONAL, ECONOMIC AND LOCAL FACTORS IN OPEN
SEAT ELECTIONS FOR THE UNITED STATES HOUSE OF
REPRESENTATIVES FROM 1982 THROUGH 1992 48
Introduction
48
National Factors
50
Presidential Coat-tails
50
Surge and Decline
55
Strategic Politicians
62
Econc«nic Voting
65
Traditional "Retrospective" Voting
65
National Economic Voting
67
Local Factors 70
Incumbency Loss Potential 70
Volatility Of District 72
Conclusion and Discussion
73
CHAPTER 4: THE ROLE OF GENDER IN OPEN SEAT ELECTIONS
FOR THE UNITED STATES HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES FROM
1982 -1992
78
Introduction
78
Potential Advantages Accorded to Female Candidates 82
Potential Disadvantages
84
Sexism
84
Political Resources
85
Occupational Bias
86
Campaign Finance
89
Analysis
92
Direct Effect of Gender on the Percent of Votes
Received
92
Indirect Effects of Gender on the Percent of Votes
Received
93
Descriptive Analysis
97
General Findings
97
Comparison By Political Party
101
General Comparisons Between Female and Male
Candidate Races
102
Preliminary Conclusions
104
Primary Elections
107
Average Margin of Victory 108
Female Candidates Primary Elections 109
'
Female Primary Candidates Versus Male Primary
Candidates
110
Conclusion and Discussion 113
CHAPTER 5: THE ROLE OF POLITICAL PARTIES: PATTERNS OF
DEPLOYING RESOURCES AND POTENTIAL FOR SUBSEQUENT
LEGISLATIVE BEHAVIORAL LOYALTY
116
Introduction
116
Weakened Parties
— 117
The "Parties Just Begun" The Nationalization of
American Political Parties 120
Committee Structure and Operation 121
Non-Monetary Assistance
123
Symbolic Nature of Party Donations 124
Analysis
126
Distribution of Party Resources 128
Competitiveness of District and Race 130
Gender of Candidates 133
Candidate Quality
I35
Candidates With Financial Need 136
Direct Impact of Strategic Considerations on
Allocation of Party Resources 138
VI
The Potential for Subsequent Behavioral Loyalty 142
Conclusion
147
CHAPTER 6 CONCLUSION 150
:
Campaign Expenditure Limits Coupled with Public
Financing
155
Opponents
156
Grants or Matching Funds? 157
Determining the Proper Limit 160
Support For Spending Limits and Public Financing of
Elections
161
Benefits of Public Financing and Expenditure Limits
System
163
Practicality of Instituting Reform 165
Strong Parties
166
Practicality of Instituting Reform 172
Term Limits
172
Practicality of Instituting Reform and Potential
Consequences
174
Conclusion
178
APPENDIX A: CHAPTER 2 SCATTER PLOTS 179
:
APPENDIX B: CHAPTER 4: HISTOGRAMS OF FEMALE
CANDIDATE'S EXPENDITURES
182
LIST OF REFERENCES
184
BIOGRAPHICAL SKETCH
194
Vll
.
Abstract of Dissertation Presented to the Graduate School
of the University of Florida in Partial Fulfillment of the
Requirements for the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy
DYNAMICS OF OPEN SEAT ELECTIONS FOR THE UNITED STATE HOUSE OF
REPRESENTATIVES
By
Joanne Connor Green
April 1994
Chair: M. Margaret Conway
Major Department: Department of Political Science
The central question which this research examines is how
can electoral accountability and legislative responsiveness
be maximized. Accountability and responsiveness are
intimately tied to the level of competition; if competition
is enhanced and electoral biases (for example, biases toward
moneyed interests) minimized, the potential for electoral
accountability and legislative responsiveness is increased.
Although this is not a new question, this analysis tackles
the research problem in a different manner than most past
research. First, the universe of study is limited to open
seat elections for the U.S. House of Representatives from
1982 through 1992, permiting a more lucid demonstration of
the dynamics underlying elections
Vlll
A second distinction of this research from prior
research is a focus on differentials in electoral advantages
rather than absolute resources. This means of envisioning
campaign advantages extends to candidate expenditures as well
as occupational background. Although benefits derive from
examining the impact of each candidate s campaign
'
expenditures, a more fruitful approach is to explore the
relative advantages provided by differentials in spending.
This research will demonstrate the theoretical and
statistical superiority of this measure. Candidate
occupational background is also best envisioned and measured
as an occupational advantage rather than an absolute
resource; for example, that one candidate has more prior
elected experience than the opponent is more important than
if both candidates have electoral experience.
This research is motivated by a desire to make informed
reforms to the current electoral system. Such reforms are
only possible if we first understand what drives the system.
The research examines factors affecting the elections, then
examine proposed reforms in light of the research results.
IX
CHAPTER 1:
INTRODUCTION
The distinguishing characteristic of democracies,
as Harold Lasswell once observed, is the 'open
interplay of opinion and policy. If people are
'
not capable of expressing their choices through
the electoral process , then elections become a
methodology for concealing power rather than for
sharing it. i
The above statement depicts the purpose of elections in
democratic societies and underlies a central concern
evidenced throughout this research. Natchez states that "the
meaning of the electoral process has rarely been considered
on its own merits, that its functions always have been
assumed rather than stated clearly. But without such a clear
description of purpose, it is impossible to examine the
capabilities of the electoral process or to evaluate its
performance" (Natchez, 1985, p. 224). He goes on to point
out that the electoral process functions to provide political
choices; choices which extend over a full range of powers and
responsibilities. The electorate makes a variety of choices
in every election. These choices sustain the democratic
system in which we live. However, as the introduction
statement asserts, if individuals are not free to express
their choice, be it because of electoral fraud, corruption or
ipeter Natchez, 1985. Images of Voting / Visions of
Democracy, p. 225.