DYNAMIC PROGRAMMING AND INVENTORY CONTROL Studies in Probability, Optimization and Statistics Volume 3 Published previously in this series Vol. 2. J.W. Cohen, Analysis of Random Walks Vol. 1. R. Syski, Passage Times for Markov Chains ISSN 0928-3986 (print) ISSN 2211-4602 (online) Dynamic Programming and Inventory Control Alain Bensoussan International Center for Risk and Decision Analysis, School of Management, University of Texas at Dallas Faculty of Business, The Hong Kong Polytechnic University and Graduate Department of Financial Engineering, Ajou University Amsterdam • Berlin • Tokyo • Washington, DC © 2011 Alain Bensoussan and IOS Press. All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted, in any form or by any means, without prior written permission from the publisher. ISBN 978-1-60750-769-7 (print) ISBN 978-1-60750-770-3 (online) doi:10.3233/978-1-60750-770-3-i Library of Congress Control Number: 2011933745 Publisher IOS Press BV Nieuwe Hemweg 6B 1013 BG Amsterdam Netherlands fax: +31 20 687 0019 e-mail: [email protected] Distributor in the USA and Canada IOS Press, Inc. 4502 Rachael Manor Drive Fairfax, VA 22032 USA fax: +1 703 323 3668 e-mail: [email protected] LEGAL NOTICE The publisher is not responsible for the use which might be made of the following information. PRINTED IN THE NETHERLANDS Contents Chapter 1. INTRODUCTION 1 Chapter 2. STATIC PROBLEMS 3 2.1. NEWSVENDOR PROBLEM 3 2.2. EOQ MODEL 4 2.3. PRICE CONSIDERATIONS 5 2.4. SEVERAL PRODUCTS WITH SCARCE RESOURCE 7 2.5. CONTINUOUS PRODUCTION OF SEVERAL PRODUCTS 7 2.6. LEAD TIME 8 2.7. RANDOM DEMAND RATE: UNSATISFIED DEMAND LOST 11 Chapter 3. MARKOV CHAINS 13 3.1. NOTATION 13 3.2. CHAPMAN-KOLMOGOROV EQUATIONS 14 3.3. STOPPING TIMES 15 3.4. SOLUTION OF ANALYTIC PROBLEMS 15 3.5. ERGODIC THEORY 18 3.6. EXAMPLES 21 Chapter 4. OPTIMAL CONTROL IN DISCRETE TIME 25 4.1. DETERMINISTIC CASE 25 4.2. STOCHASTIC CASE: GENERAL FORMULATION 26 4.3. FUNCTIONAL EQUATION 30 4.4. PROBABILISTIC INTERPRETATION 33 4.5. UNIQUENESS 37 Chapter 5. INVENTORY CONTROL WITHOUT SET UP COST 41 5.1. NO SHORTAGE ALLOWED. 41 5.2. BACKLOG ALLOWED 46 5.3. DETERMINISTIC CASE 51 Chapter 6. ERGODIC CONTROL IN DISCRETE TIME 53 6.1. FINITE NUMBER OF STATES 53 6.2. ERGODIC CONTROL OF INVENTORIES WITH NO SHORTAGE 59 6.3. ERGODIC CONTROL OF INVENTORIES WITH BACKLOG 63 6.4. DETERMINISTIC CASE 66 Chapter 7. OPTIMAL STOPPING PROBLEMS 67 7.1. DYNAMIC PROGRAMMING 67 7.2. INTERPRETATION 69 7.3. PENALTY APPROXIMATION 72 v vi CONTENTS 7.4. ERGODIC CASE 74 Chapter 8. IMPULSE CONTROL 79 8.1. DESCRIPTION OF THE MODEL 79 8.2. STUDY OF THE FUNCTIONAL EQUATION 81 8.3. ANOTHER FORMULATION 81 8.4. PROBABILISTIC INTERPRETATION 86 Chapter 9. INVENTORY CONTROL WITH SET UP COST 89 9.1. DETERMINISTIC MODEL 89 9.2. INVENTORY CONTROL WITH FIXED COST AND NO SHORTAGE 94 9.3. INVENTORY CONTROL WITH FIXED COST AND BACKLOG 114 Chapter 10. ERGODIC CONTROL OF INVENTORIES WITH SET UP COST 133 10.1. DETERMINISTIC CASE 133 10.2. ERGODIC INVENTORY CONTROL WITH FIXED COST AND NO SHORTAGE 135 10.3. ERGODIC INVENTORY CONTROL WITH FIXED COST AND BACKLOG 144 Chapter 11. DYNAMIC INVENTORY MODELS WITH EXTENSIONS 155 11.1. CAPACITATED INVENTORY MANAGEMENT 155 11.2. MULTI SUPPLIER PROBLEM 159 Chapter 12. INVENTORY CONTROL WITH MARKOV DEMAND 169 12.1. INTRODUCTION 169 12.2. NO BACKLOG AND NO SET-UP COST 169 12.3. BACKLOG AND NO SET UP COST 183 12.4. NO BACKLOG AND SET UP COST 194 12.5. BACKLOG AND SET UP COST 200 12.6. LEARNING PROCESS 207 Chapter 13. LEAD TIMES AND DELAYS 211 13.1. INTRODUCTION 211 13.2. MODELS WITH INVENTORY POSITION 211 13.3. MODELS WITHOUT INVENTORY POSITION 218 13.4. INFORMATION DELAYS 227 13.5. ERGODIC CONTROL WITH INFORMATION DELAYS 232 Chapter 14. CONTINUOUS TIME INVENTORY CONTROL 247 14.1. DETERMINISTIC MODEL 247 14.2. ERGODIC PROBLEM 251 14.3. CONTINUOUS RATE DELIVERY 252 14.4. LEAD TIME 253 14.5. NEWSVENDOR PROBLEM 254 14.6. POISSON DEMAND 255 14.7. ERGODIC CASE FOR THE POISSON DEMAND 263 14.8. POISSON DEMAND WITH LEAD TIME 265 CONTENTS vii 14.9. ERGODIC APPROACH FOR POISSON DEMAND WITH LEAD TIME 272 14.10. POISSON DEMAND WITH LEAD TIME: USE OF INVENTORY POSITION 279 14.11. ERGODIC THEORY FOR LEAD TIME WITH INVENTORY POSITION 281 Chapter 15. INVENTORY CONTROL WITH DIFFUSION DEMAND 287 15.1. INTRODUCTION 287 15.2. PROBLEM FORMULATION 287 15.3. s,S POLICY 289 15.4. SOLVING THE Q.V.I 296 15.5. ERGODIC THEORY 298 15.6. PROBABILISTIC INTERPRETATION 303 Chapter 16. MEAN-REVERTING INVENTORY CONTROL 325 16.1. INTRODUCTION 325 16.2. DESCRIPTION OF THE PROBLEM 325 16.3. s,S POLICY 327 16.4. SOLUTION OF THE Q.V.I 339 Chapter 17. TWO BAND IMPULSE CONTROL PROBLEMS 341 17.1. INTRODUCTION 341 17.2. THE PROBLEM 341 17.3. a,A,b,B POLICY 343 17.4. SOLUTION OF THE Q.V.I. 351 17.5. COMPUTATIONAL ASPECTS 353 Bibliography 361 Appendix A. 363 A.1. PROOF OF LEMMAS 363 A.2. PROOF OF MEASURABLE SELECTION 364 A.3. EXTENSION TO U NON COMPACT 368 A.4. COMPACTNESS PROPERTIES 369 This page intentionally left blank CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION The objective of this book is to present a unified theory of Dynamic Pro- gramming and Markov Decision Processes with its application to a major field of Operations Research and Operations Management, Inventory Control. We will de- velopmodelsindiscretetimeaswellasincontinuoustime. Incontinuoustime,the diversity of situations is huge. We will not cover all of them and concentrate on the models of interest to Inventory Control. In discrete time we will focus mostly on infinite horizon models. This is also the situation when the Bellman equation of Dynamic Programming is really a functional equation, the solution of which is called the value function. With a finite horizon, Dynamic Programming leads to a recursive relation, which is an easier situation. Of course, finite horizon problems canalsobeconsideredasapproximationstoinfinitehorizonproblems,andthiswill be used in our presentation. When the horizon is infinite, the discount plays an essential role. An important problem concerns the behavior of the value function when the discount factor tends to 1. The value function also tends to infinity, but an average cost function becomes meaningful. This development is called ergodic theory, an interesting aspect of which is that the solution, when it exists, can be simplerthaninthecasewhenthediscountissmallerthan1. However,thetheoryis morecomplex. Thesimplicityislinkedtothefactthattheproblembecomesstatic, insteadofdynamic. Thecomplexitystemsfromthefactthatthisstaticproblemis an averaging. The averaging procedure is not trivial and may be not intuitive. Another important question concerns the difference between impulse control andcontinuouscontrol. Thedifferenceisparticularlyunderstandableincontinuous time. An impulse control will elicit an instantaneous jump for the state, whereas a continuouscontrolcanonlyleadtoacontinuousevolutionofthestate. Inpractice, this occurrence is linked to fixed costs, namely costs which arise just because a decision is taken, whatever the impact of the decision may be. In discrete time, the difference disappears in principle, since time is not continuous by construction. However,fixedcostsremain. Theconsequenceisthatanappropriateformulationof impulse control remains meaningful and useful in discrete time. Indeed, in discrete time, the usual assumption is that the result of a decision materializes at the end oftheperiod,whereasthedecisionistakenatthebeginningoftheperiod. Impulse control in discrete time means that the result also materializes at the beginning of the period, so instantaneously. We will also consider ergodic control in the context ofimpulsecontrolandjustifysomesimpleruleswhicharecurrentlyusedinpractice. In chapter 2, we shall introduce some of the classical static problems, which are preliminary to the dynamic models of interest in inventory control. By static, we mean that we have to solve an ordinary optimization problem. The decision does not depend on time. Such models occur when one considers one period only, 1