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N A V A L W A R C O L L EG NAVAL WAR COLLEGE REVIEW E R E V I E W Spring 2006 Volume 59, Number 2 S p nir g 2 0 0 6 NIUTEEDHTSTATES NAVALEWGEALRLOC VIRIBUS MARI VICTORIA Report Documentation Page Form Approved OMB No. 0704-0188 Public reporting burden for the collection of information is estimated to average 1 hour per response, including the time for reviewing instructions, searching existing data sources, gathering and maintaining the data needed, and completing and reviewing the collection of information. Send comments regarding this burden estimate or any other aspect of this collection of information, including suggestions for reducing this burden, to Washington Headquarters Services, Directorate for Information Operations and Reports, 1215 Jefferson Davis Highway, Suite 1204, Arlington VA 22202-4302. Respondents should be aware that notwithstanding any other provision of law, no person shall be subject to a penalty for failing to comply with a collection of information if it does not display a currently valid OMB control number. 1. REPORT DATE 3. DATES COVERED 2006 2. REPORT TYPE 00-00-2006 to 00-00-2006 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE 5a. CONTRACT NUMBER Naval War College Review,Spring 2006,Volume 59, Number 2 5b. GRANT NUMBER 5c. PROGRAM ELEMENT NUMBER 6. AUTHOR(S) 5d. PROJECT NUMBER 5e. TASK NUMBER 5f. WORK UNIT NUMBER 7. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES) 8. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION Naval War College,,686 Cushing Rd.,,Newport,,RI,02841 REPORT NUMBER 9. SPONSORING/MONITORING AGENCY NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES) 10. SPONSOR/MONITOR’S ACRONYM(S) 11. SPONSOR/MONITOR’S REPORT NUMBER(S) 12. DISTRIBUTION/AVAILABILITY STATEMENT Approved for public release; distribution unlimited 13. SUPPLEMENTARY NOTES 14. ABSTRACT 15. SUBJECT TERMS 16. SECURITY CLASSIFICATION OF: 17. LIMITATION OF 18. NUMBER 19a. NAME OF ABSTRACT OF PAGES RESPONSIBLE PERSON a. REPORT b. ABSTRACT c. THIS PAGE Same as 187 unclassified unclassified unclassified Report (SAR) Standard Form 298 (Rev. 8-98) Prescribed by ANSI Std Z39-18 Color profile: Disabled Composite Default screen Cover Theshadowyvesselisasurfaced092 Xia-classsubmarine,China’sonly first-generationnuclearballistic-missile submarine.ThefirstofChina’ssecond- generation094SSBNs,atypethatisset toenhance vastly China’s sea-based nu- clear deterrent, was reportedly launched in 2004. The image is inspired by poster art produced by the Naval War College Visual Communications Division for the College’s“China’sNewNuclearSub- marine Fleet” Research Symposium, held 26–27 October 2005—a conference that produced a study, appearing in this issue, of “China’s Maturing Navy,” by Rear Admiral Eric A. McVadon, U.S. Navy (Retired). CoverartbyCristinaA.Hartley,Naval WarCollegeVisualCommunications Division. T:\Academic\NWC Review\NWC Review Spring 2006\Ventura\NWC Review Spring 2006.vp Tuesday, April 11, 2006 8:22:24 AM Color profile: Disabled Composite Default screen NAVAL WAR COLLEGE REVIEW Spring 2006 Volume 59, Number 2 NAVALWARCOLLEGEPRESS 686 Cushing Road Newport, RI 02841-1207 T:\Academic\NWC Review\NWC Review Spring 2006\Ventura\NWC Review Spring 2006.vp Tuesday, April 11, 2006 8:22:26 AM Color profile: Disabled Composite Default screen NAVALWARCOLLEGEPRESSADVISORYBOARD DEANOFNAVALWARFARESTUDIES ProfessorInisL. Claude, Jr. Professor Kenneth H. Watman Dr. Norman Friedman Professor Carnes Lord,Editor Professor Colin Gray Pelham G. Boyer,Managing Editor Captain Wayne P. Hughes, Jr.,U.S. Navy, Ret. Phyllis P. Winkler,Book Review Editor Professor Paul M. Kennedy Lori A.Almeida,Secretary and Circulation Manager Professor James R.Kurth FrankUhlig, Jr.,Editor Emeritus The Honorable Robert J. Murray Professor George H.Quester EDITORIALOFFICES Lieutenant General Bernard E.Trainor, Naval War College Review U.S. Marine Corps, Ret. Code 32, Naval War College The Honorable G. William Whitehurst 686 Cushing Rd., Newport, RI 02841-1207 Fax: 401.841.1071 NAVALWARCOLLEGEREVIEWEDITORIALBOARD DSNexchange, all lines: 948 Col. James Conklin, USMC,Naval War College Website: www.nwc.navy.mil/press Audrey Kurth Cronin,Oxford University Editor, Circulation, or Business Peter Dombrowski,Naval War College 401.841.2236 Stephen Downes-Martin,Naval War College [email protected] John F. Garofano,Naval War College Managing Editor Col. Theodore L. Gatchel, USMC (Ret.), 401.841.4552 Naval War College [email protected] Dennis Mandsager,Naval War College William C. Martel,The Fletcher School Newport Papers, Books Mackubin Owens,Naval War College [email protected] Peter M. Swartz,The CNA Corporation Essays and Book Reviews Scott C. Truver,Anteon Corporation 401.841.6584 Karl F. Walling,Naval War College [email protected] James J. Wirtz,Naval Postgraduate School Other Naval War College Offices PRESIDENT,NAVALWARCOLLEGE 401.841.3089 Rear Admiral Jacob L. Shuford,U.S. Navy PROVOSTANDDEANOFACADEMICS Professor James F. Giblin, Jr. T:\Academic\NWC Review\NWC Review Spring 2006\Ventura\NWC Review Spring 2006.vp Tuesday, April 11, 2006 8:22:26 AM Color profile: Disabled Composite Default screen TheNavalWarCollegeReviewwasestablishedin1948asaforumfordiscussionof publicpolicymattersofinteresttothemaritimeservices.Thethoughtsandopinions expressedinthispublicationarethoseoftheauthorsandarenotnecessarilythose oftheU.S.government,theU.S.NavyDepartment,ortheNavalWarCollege. The journal is published quarterly. Distribution is limited generally to commands andactivitiesoftheU.S.Navy,MarineCorps,andCoastGuard;regularandreserve officersofU.S.services;foreignofficersandcivilianshavingapresentorprevious affiliationwiththeNavalWarCollege;selectedU.S.governmentofficialsandagen- cies;andselectedU.S.andinternationallibraries,researchcenters,publications,and educationalinstitutions. Contributors Please request the standard contributors’ guidance from the managing editor or access it online before submitting manuscripts.TheNavalWarCollegeReviewnei- theroffersnormakescompensationforarticlesorbookreviews,anditassumesno responsibilityforthereturnofmanuscripts,althougheveryeffortismadetoreturn thosenotaccepted.Insubmittingwork,thesenderwarrantsthatitisoriginal,that itisthesender’sproperty,andthatneitheritnorasimilarworkbythesenderhas beenacceptedorisunderconsiderationelsewhere. Permissions Reproduction and reprinting are subject to the Copyright Act of 1976 and appli- cable treaties of the United States. To obtain permission to reproduce material bearing a copyright notice, or to reproduce any material for commercialpur- poses,contacttheeditorforeachuse.Materialnotbearingacopyrightnotice may be freely reproduced for academic or other noncommercial use; however, it is requested that the author andNaval War College Reviewbe credited and that the editor be informed. Periodicals postage paid at Newport, R.I. POSTMASTERS, send address changes to:Naval War College Review,Code 32S, Naval War College, 686 Cushing Rd., Newport, R.I. 02841-1207. ISSN0028-1484 T:\Academic\NWC Review\NWC Review Spring 2006\Ventura\NWC Review Spring 2006.vp Tuesday, April 11, 2006 8:22:26 AM Color profile: Disabled Composite Default screen T:\Academic\NWC Review\NWC Review Spring 2006\Ventura\NWC Review Spring 2006.vp Tuesday, April 11, 2006 8:22:29 AM Color profile: Disabled Composite Default screen CONTENTS FromtheEditors. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3 President’s Forum. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7 TransformingtheU.S.GlobalDefensePosture . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13 Ryan Henry The security environment at the start of the twenty-first century is perhaps the most uncertain it has been in the history of the United States. What strategic realities are driving the transformation of American global defense posture to contend with that uncertainty, and what changes is the Department of Defense working to bring about in relationships and capabilities around the world? The Proliferation Security Initiative CornerstoneofaNewInternationalNorm. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29 Commander Joel A. Doolin, JAGC, U.S. Navy TheProliferationSecurityInitiative(PSI),launchedin2003,isaninternationalefforttolimitthe spreadofweaponsofmassdestructiontoroguestatesandterrorists.Withsixteencorememberstates andsomesixtycooperatingnations,itenjoystodaymanyadvantagesoflawandorganization in coastal waters, but it lacks useful authority to interdict WMD on the high seas. PSI itself, however, represents an opportunity to alter international law and fill that critical gap. Asia Rising IndiaintheIndianOcean . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 58 Donald L. Berlin India has strengthened its position on the Indian Ocean’s littoral and among the ocean’s island nations. India also has become a more palpable presence in key maritime zones; its links with the most important external actors also have been strengthened. These are significant achievements, and they derive from India’s growing economic clout, maritime strength, and a surer hand in diplomacy. As this process unfolds further, it will have a transforming effect on the Indian Ocean basin and, eventually, the world. China’sMaturingNavy. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 90 Rear Admiral Eric A. McVadon, U.S. Navy (Retired) A new and much more capable Chinese navy, especially its submarine force, is being acquired and deployed. It is not yet mature, but its rapid and impressive modernization is making it a navy that is arguably the only one that the U.S. Navy must deter or be able to defeat—unless, under other circumstances, it becomes a high-seas partner. T:\Academic\NWC Review\NWC Review Spring 2006\Ventura\NWC Review Spring 2006.vp Tuesday, April 11, 2006 8:22:29 AM Color profile: Disabled Composite Default screen 2 NAVALWARCOLLEGEREVIEW Research, Analysis, and Gaming TheEpistemologyofWarGaming. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 108 Robert C. Rubel War games can produce valid knowledge, useful for planning and decisions, but they can also produce “valid-looking garbage.” There are principles that can help users and analysts tell the difference and avoid the pitfalls, but if game results are to merit reliably the confidence they are now given, the craft of gaming must become a profession. ArthurK.Cebrowski:ARetrospective. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 129 James Blaker Vice Admiral Arthur K. Cebrowski, forty-seventh President of the Naval War College and later founding director of the Defense Department’s Office of Force Transformation, was the prime intellectual architect of U.S. military transformation and network-centric warfare. When he passed away on 12 November 2005, he joined the pantheon of American military innovators. InMyView. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 147 ReviewEssays ContemporaryOperational-LevelWarFighting. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 157 Basrah, Baghdad, and Beyond: The U.S. Marine Corps in the Second Iraq War, by Nicholas E. Reynolds reviewed by James S. Robbins NeatnessDoesn’tCount. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 162 Filling the Ranks: Transforming the U.S. Military System, edited by Cindy Williams reviewed by Donald Chisholm Book Reviews The Utility of Force: The Art of War in the Modern World, by General Sir Rupert Smith reviewedbyRobertBolia. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 169 On Point: The United States Army in Operation Iraqi Freedom, by Gregory Fontenot, E. J. Degen, and David Tohn reviewedbyTerryL.Sellers. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 170 Combating Proliferation: Strategic Intelligence & Security Policy, by Jason D. Ellis and Geoffrey D. Kiefer reviewedbyJeffreyT.Richelson. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 171 The Pentagon and the Presidency: Civil-Military Relations from FDR to George W. Bush,by Dale R. Herspring reviewedbyGregoryD.Foster. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 172 The Unraveling of Representative Democracy in Venezuela, edited by Jennifer L. McCoy and David J. Myers reviewedbyRichardNorton. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 174 America’s First Frogman: The Draper Kauffman Story, by Elizabeth Kauffman Bush reviewedbyRobertG.Kaufman. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 175 OfSpecialInterest . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 177 Recent Books. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 179 T:\Academic\NWC Review\NWC Review Spring 2006\Ventura\NWC Review Spring 2006.vp Tuesday, April 11, 2006 8:22:29 AM Color profile: Disabled Composite Default screen FROM THE EDITORS Thisissueof theNavalWarCollegeReviewcompletesthetransitiontoanew editor—joinedasof thepreviousissue,asreadersmayhavenoted,byanewly mintedEditorialBoard.Afewremarksaboutthispaneland,moregenerally,the futureeditorialdirectionoftheReviewarethereforeappropriate. ThenewEditorialBoardisaworkinggroup,representativeofallofthemajor teachingandresearchdepartmentsoftheNavalWarCollege.Assuch,itsignals ourintentionthattheReviewbemorecomprehensivelyreflectiveoftheintellec- tual life of this institution than has sometimes been the case in the past. The boardreachesoutaswelltothebroaderintellectualcommunitythroughoutthe UnitedStates(and,itshouldbenoted,intheUnitedKingdom)interestedinand conversantwithnavalandmaritimeaffairsandstrategicstudiesmoregenerally. The overall composition of the panel highlights the Review’s long-standing commitmenttoscholarlystandardsofahighorderinthisfield,andthecentral- itytoitsoverallmissionof thenavalandmaritimedimensionof international security. Matters of current (and historical) interest to the sea services of the United States will have the first claim on our editorial attention. At the same time,mindfulaswemustbeoftheincreasinglyjointandinteragencycharacter ofcontemporarywarfare,wewillcontinuetopaydueattentiontomilitaryand securityissuesofrelevanceacrosstheservicesaswellastotheframeworkofna- tionalpolicythatshapesandisshapedbythem. Theleadarticleofthisissuenicelyexemplifiesthisbroaderfocus.In“Trans- formingtheU.S.GlobalDefensePosture,”RyanHenry,currentlyPrincipalDeputy UnderSecretaryofDefenseforPolicy,providesanauthoritativeoverviewofthe unprecedented effort undertaken by the U.S.government over the last several yearstoreviewandrealignitsoverseasbasingstructureandassociatedalliance relationships. The implications of these developments have yet to be fully as- sessed,especiallyastheyaffecttheNavyandMarineCorps,buttheyarelikelyto befar-reaching.Mr.Henry’spaperalsoappearsinacollectionofessaysonthis subject,ReposturingtheForce:U.S.OverseasPresenceintheTwenty-firstCentury, whichwaspreparedinparallelbytheNavalWarCollegePressforpublicationas thetwenty-sixthmonographinitsNewportPapersseries. T:\Academic\NWC Review\NWC Review Spring 2006\Ventura\NWC Review Spring 2006.vp Tuesday, April 11, 2006 8:22:29 AM