DTIC ADA619217: Naval War College Review. Volume 64, Number 4, Autumn 2011

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Volume 64, Number 4
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NITUEEDHTSTATES NAVALEWGEALRLOC
VIRIBUS MARI VICTORIA

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Naval War College Review,Autumn 2011,Volume 64, Number 4
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14. ABSTRACT
At a time when China’s People’s Liberation Army Navy and its national leadership appear to have
committed themselves firmly to a program of aircraft carrier development over the coming decades,
doubts are being voiced increasingly in the West, and not least the United States itself, over the
affordability and operational effectiveness of carriers in the current fiscal and strategic environment.
Aircraft carriers have served for some seven decades as in effect the capital ship of the U.S. Navy. Will they
continue in this role in the future? In addressing this question, Robert C. Rubel, a retired naval aviator,
offers a careful review of the evolving "doctrinal" roles aircraft carriers have played for the Navy in the
course of their history and of the emerging strategic and operational challenges they face. He concludes
that while some of these roles appear to be obsolescing, the carrier will likely be with us for the foreseeable
future, though possibly in lesser numbers and with a reduced emphasis on traditional strike missions.
Professor Rubel is dean of the Center for Naval Warfare Studies at the Naval War College.
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NAVAL WAR COLLEGE REVIEW
Autumn 2011
Volume 64, Number 4
NAVAL WARCOLLEGE PRESS
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NAVALWARCOLLEGEPRESSADVISORYBOARD PRESIDENT,NAVALWARCOLLEGE
Adam Bellow Rear Adm. John N. Christenson, USN
Capt. Wayne P. Hughes, USN (Ret.) PROVOST
Jeffrey Kline Amb. Mary Ann Peters
Gale A.Mattox
Robert A.Silano DEANOFNAVALWARFARESTUDIES
Robert C. Rubel
MarinStrmecki
DovS.Zakheim
NAVALWARCOLLEGEPRESS
CarnesLord,Editor
NAVALWARCOLLEGEREVIEWEDITORIALBOARD
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Naval War College Review
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CONTENTS
FromtheEditors. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3
President’s Forum . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7
TheFutureofAircraftCarriers . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13
Robert C. Rubel
As the geopolitical, technological, and budgetary environments change, the question of whether
aircraft carriers will still be needed, and if so of what kind and how many, becomes urgent. The
best way to approach it is in terms of how they are actually used and how they could be.
Sea Basing
Concept,Issues,andRecommendations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28
Sam J. Tangredi
In a flat or shrinking defense budget, resources for the joint capability of sea basing will become
contentious. However, a prudent strategy for the United States in uncertain times is to balance
long-range capabilities based in the continental United States with highly maneuverable and well
defended sea bases.
Three Disputes and Three Objectives
ChinaandtheSouthChinaSea . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 42
Peter Dutton
The complex disputes of the globally important South China Sea sort themselves into three
categories, each with its own parties, rule sets, and politics. Unfortunately, states are pursuing
win-lose solutions to all three, when win-win problem solving based on mutuality and
commonality of interests is necessary and possible.
ProgressingMaritimeSecurityCooperationintheIndianOcean. . . . . . 68
Lee Cordner
In the Indian Ocean region, the obstacles to maritime security cooperation are especially severe,
but the need for that cooperation is especially great. The prospect that nothing will be done is all
too likely—and in view of the risks, unacceptable.
Operational Assessment
Why Operations Assessments Fail
It’sNotJusttheMetrics . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 89
Jonathan Schroden
In any military campaign it is necessary to measure how well one is doing; in unconventional,
counterinsurgency warfare, measuring progress is especially difficult; and in Afghanistan, the
attempt to do so is doing more harm than good, and for fundamental reasons.
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2 NAVALWARCOLLEGEREVIEW
Operations Assessment in Afghanistan Is Broken
WhatIstoBeDone?. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .103
Stephen Downes-Martin
The operations assessments process in Afghanistan is untrustworthy and places at risk the
credibility of commanders who support its products. But regional commanders have the authority
and means to fix it.
Dewey at Manila Bay
Lessons in Operational Art and Operational Leadership from
America’sFirstFleetAdmiral . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 127
Commander Derek B. Granger, U.S. Navy
Admiral George Dewey, his great victory at Manila Bay over a century ago, and even the Spanish-
American War receive little attention, from either historians of naval warfare or its practitioners.
But the nature of the challenges he faced, how he approached them, and how his career had
prepared him to succeed so well are in fact highly relevant to the U.S. Navy’s present environment.
Review Essay
RisingChina’sForgottenFather . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 142
The Generalissimo: Chiang Kai-shek and the Struggle for Modern China,
by Jay Taylor
reviewed by Charles Horner
Book Reviews
Essays in Naval History, from Medieval to Modern,by N.A. M. Rodger
reviewedbyJohnB.Hattendorf. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 146
Schattenarmeen: Die Geheimdienste der islamischen Welt
(Shadow Armies: The Secret Services of the Islamic World),by Wilhelm Dietl
reviewedbyJohnR.Schindler. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 147
AtomicObsession:NuclearAlarmismfromHiroshimatoAlQaeda,byJohnMueller
reviewedbyAndrewL.Stigler . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 149
The Wrong War: Grit, Strategy, and the Way Out of Afghanistan,by Bing West
reviewedbyJeffreyJ.Winters . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 150
The Education of Ronald Reagan: The General Electric Years and
the Untold Story of His Conversion to Conservatism,by Thomas W. Evans
reviewedbyStephenF.Knott . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 151
D-Day: The Battle for Normandy,by Antony Beevor
reviewedbyDavidL.Teska. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 152
The Origins of Political Order: From Prehuman Times to the
French Revolution,by Francis Fukuyama
reviewedbyMattvanHook . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 153
Common Purpose: How Great Leaders Get Organizations to
Achieve the Extraordinary,by Joel Kurtzman
reviewedbyRogerH.Ducey. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 155
The Emperor’s Handbook: A New Translation of theMeditations,
by Marcus Aurelius, translated by C. Scot Hicks and David V. Hicks
reviewedbyJeffShaw. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 156
InMyView. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 158
OfSpecialInterest. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 164
ReflectionsonReading. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 166
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FROM THE EDITORS
AtatimewhenChina’sPeople’sLiberationArmyNavyanditsnationalleader-
shipappeartohavecommittedthemselvesfirmlytoaprogramofaircraftcarrier
developmentoverthecomingdecades,doubtsarebeingvoicedincreasinglyin
theWest,andnotleasttheUnitedStatesitself,overtheaffordabilityandopera-
tional effectiveness of carriers in the current fiscal and strategic environment.
Aircraftcarriershaveservedforsomesevendecadesasineffectthecapitalship
oftheU.S.Navy.Willtheycontinueinthisroleinthefuture?Inaddressingthis
question,RobertC.Rubel,aretirednavalaviator,offersacarefulreviewof the
evolving“doctrinal”rolesaircraftcarriershaveplayedfortheNavyinthecourse
of their history and of the emerging strategic and operational challenges they
face.Heconcludesthatwhilesomeof theserolesappeartobeobsolescing,the
carrierwilllikelybewithusfortheforeseeablefuture,thoughpossiblyinlesser
numbersandwithareducedemphasisontraditionalstrikemissions.Professor
RubelisdeanoftheCenterforNavalWarfareStudiesattheNavalWarCollege.
Amongmilitaryconceptsthatneverquiteseemtocomeintofocus,“seabas-
ing”surely ranks high.Sam J.Tangredi revisits the doctrinal and bureaucratic
state of play on this issue.Sea basing continues to be viewed and evaluated in
verydifferentwaysbythe differentservices;the relative eclipse of the concept
overthelastseveralyearsisasomewhatdepressingtestimonytothecontinuing
shortcomingsof “jointness”intheU.S.military.Tangredioffersacautiousde-
fenseof thecontinuingrelevanceof seabasing,withreferencelesstothemost
frequentlycitedrationale—thepotentialpoliticalvulnerabilityofbaseslocated
inalliedterritory—thantothegrowingphysicalvulnerabilityoffixedlandbases
tolong-rangeballisticmissileattack.CaptainTangredi,USN(Ret.),isaformer
headoftheStrategyandConceptsBranchoftheOfficeoftheChiefofNavalOp-
erations.ThisarticlewillalsoappearinaforthcomingNewportPaperonU.S.
forwardpresenceinAsia,thePacific,andtheIndianOcean.
In “Three DisputesandThree Objectives:Chinaandthe SouthChinaSea,”
PeterDuttonnextprovidesacarefulreviewoftheregionaltensionsinSoutheast
AsiageneratedoverthelastseveralyearsbyChina’sincreasinglyaggressiveas-
sertionofitsclaimstotheSouthChinaSeaattheexpenseofotherlittoralstates,
aswellasbyitschallengetofreedomofnavigationandforeignmilitarypresence
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