DTIC ADA618337: Naval War College Review. Volume 62, Number 4, Autumn 2009

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Cover
USSAugustain Narragansett Bay, 2
May 1941,awatercolorpainting by the
marineartistIan Marshall. The scene
shows the heavy cruiserUSSAugusta
(CA 31)on the day that Admiral Ernest
J. King broke his four-star flag in
Augustaas Commander in Chief, U.S.
Atlantic Fleet.The ship ismoored to a
buoyon the Jamestownside of the bay
(that is, nearConanicut Island,visibleto
the left), Admiral King’s preferred loca-
tion;the Naval War College andasignal
tower next to Pringle Hallarein the dis-
tant background(to the right),and two
ship’s boatsareapproaching—perhaps
from the Newport, Rhode Island, fleet
landing, or from other ships—to join
threealreadyriding to a boom.The
cruiserwas tobein Newportnearlycon-
tinuously until January 1942, when King
becameChief of Naval Operations.The
tower and the tall antennasvisiblebe-
yond the College complex were removed
in the 1960s and’70s.
The painting was commissioned by the
Naval War College Museum, using funds
provided by the Naval War College Foun-
dation, to record a local scene not other-
wise visually recorded in the Museum’s
collections. The painting, delivered on 29
September 2008, hung in the Museum’s
Predators and Guard Dogs: An Exhibit of
the Works of Ian Marshall from 12 Feb-
ruary to 30 June 2009 and then joined the
permanent collection, in a new display
case installed through the generosity of
Robert Alvine’s gift to the Foundation
and Museum.
Born in Fife, Scotland,and originally
trained as an architect,Ian Marshalllives
todayon Mount Desert Island in Maine.
Heisthe author of fivebooks illustrated
by his meticulously accurate historical
ship paintings, and his work hangs in the
permanentcollectionsofmanymuseums
in the United States and Europe.
NAVAL WAR COLLEGE REVIEW
Autumn 2009
Volume 62, Number 4
NAVALWARCOLLEGEPRESS
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Gale A. Mattox Amb. Mary Ann Peters
Robert A. Silano
Marin Strmecki DEANOFNAVALWARFARESTUDIES
Robert C. Rubel
Dov S. Zakheim
NAVALWARCOLLEGEPRESS
NAVALWARCOLLEGEREVIEWEDITORIALBOARD
Carnes Lord,Editor
Donald Chisholm
Pelham G. Boyer,Managing Editor
Audrey Kurth Cronin
Phyllis P. Winkler,Book Review Editor
Peter Dombrowski
Lori A.Almeida,Secretary and Circulation Manager
Stephen Downes-Martin
FrankUhlig, Jr.,Editor Emeritus
Col. Theodore L. Gatchel, USMC (Ret.)
Naval War College Review
Capt. Dennis Mandsager, JAGC, USN (Ret.)
Code 32, Naval War College
William C. Martel
686 Cushing Rd., Newport, RI 02841-1207
Col. Mackubin Owens, USMC (Ret.)
Fax: [phone]
Lt. Cdr. Derek S. Reveron, USN
DSNexchange, all lines: 948
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Website: www.usnwc.edu/press
Scott C. Truver
http://twitter.com/NavalWarCollege
Karl F. Walling
James J. Wirtz Editor, Circulation, or Business
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ISSN0028-1484

CONTENTS
FromtheEditors . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5
President’sForum . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9
U.S.NavalOptionsforInfluencingIran . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13
Daniel Gouré and Rebecca Grant
In the event of conflict with Iran, the Navy would have perhaps the most important strategic role
of all U.S. forces. Its most valuable capabilities and options, however, lie in “shaping” behavior so
that conflict does not occur.
Asia Rising
The New Security Drama in East Asia
TheResponsesofU.S.AlliesandSecurityPartnerstoChina’sRise. . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37
Evan S. Medeiros
China’s rise is affecting the perceptions, interests, and policies of all nations throughout East Asia.
They have responded in a variety of ways, but their reactions have not necessarily come at the
expense of U.S. regional influence.
Using the Land to Control the Sea?
ChineseAnalystsConsidertheAntishipBallisticMissile . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 53
Andrew S. Erickson and David D. Yang
China’s open-source literature does not establish whether that nation has, or is close to having,
tactical ballistic missiles capable of effective attacks on surface ships. It does establish, however,
that the Chinese are deeply interested in the idea—a potential “game changer” that would
critically influence America’s place in the Pacific for decades to come—and heavily engaged in the
issues involved, technically and otherwise.
China’s Antiship Ballistic Missile
DevelopmentsandMissingLinks. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 87
Eric Hagt and Matthew Durnin
That China is interested in an antiship ballistic missile seems a logical and natural outgrowth of its
history of robust missile development. At what stage is its development? How near to operational
readiness are its key components and technologies? What would be its implications for the U.S.
Navy and the naval strategic balance between the United States and China?
2 NAVALWARCOLLEGEREVIEW
Clear Purpose, Comprehensive Execution
RaymondAmesSpruance(1886–1969) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 117
Captain Wayne P. Hughes, Jr., U.S. Navy (Retired)
From two tours at the Naval War College, Spruance understood both the roles and limitations of
doctrine and principles, but the great sources of his success in World War II were luck, selfless
ambition, skills acquired from study and experience, and innate talent.
MidwayandtheIndianOcean . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 131
Jeremy Black
The Japanese raid into the Indian Ocean is both a great what-if of World War II and an indication
of the importance of Midway. The forces that could have pursued the advantage gained in the
Indian Ocean moved instead to the Pacific, to lose four carriers, and many strategic options as
well, in the critical June 1942 battle.
Fresh Thinking for an Old Problem
ReportoftheNavalWarCollegeWorkshoponCounteringMaritimePiracy. . . . . . 141
Commander James Kraska, JAGC, U.S. Navy
Rampant piracy off the Horn of Africa has focused world attention and produced a variety of
commentaries and prescriptions. An April 2009 Naval War College workshop of experts in the
field pointed to the hard realities behind the platitudes.
Review Essays
MorethanThreeLawsofRobotics . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 155
Wired for War: The Robotics Revolution and Conflict in the 21st Century,
byP. W. Singer
reviewed by John Edward Jackson
IvoryTowerMeetsJamesBond. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 159
Analyzing Intelligence: Origins, Obstacles, and Innovations,
edited byRogerGeorge andJamesBruce
reviewed by David C. Foley
CONTENTS 3
Book Reviews
A Leader Becomes a Leader: Inspirational Stories of Leadership for a
New Generation,by J. Kevin Sheehan
reviewedbyRichardNorton. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 163
Small Boats, Weak States, Dirty Money: Piracy and Maritime Terrorism in the
Modern World,by Martin N. Murphy
reviewedbyClaudeBerube. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 164
Fighting Identity: Sacred War and World Change,by Michael Vlahos
reviewedbyS.MikePavelec . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 165
Spying on the Nuclear Bear: Anglo-American Intelligence and the
Soviet Bomb,by Michael S. Goodman
reviewedbyMyronGreenberg. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 166
Russian Civil-Military Relations: Military Strategy and Operational Art,
by Robert Brannon
reviewedbyTomFedyszyn. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 167
The Third Reich at War,by Richard J. Evans
reviewedbyStephenKnott . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 169
If Mahan Ran the Great Pacific War:
An Analysis of World War II Naval Strategy,by John A. Adams
reviewedbyMichaelPearlman . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 170
The Late Victorian Navy: The Pre-dreadnought Era and the Origins of the
First World War,by Roger Parkinson
reviewedbyJohnB.Hattendorf. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 171
InMyView . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 173
ReflectionsonReading. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 177