DTIC ADA617244: Confronting Transnational Organized Crime: Getting It Right to Forestall a New National Security Threat

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by  Defense Technical Information Center

U.S. Coast Guardsmen unload
$36 million worth of confiscated
cocaine and marijuana, St.
Petersburg, Florida
DOD (Matthew Bash)
Confronting Transnational Organized Crime
Getting It Right to Forestall a New
National Security Threat
By D o u g l a s M . F r a s e r and r e n e e P . n o v a k o F F
General Douglas M. Fraser, USAF (Ret.), was the Commander of U.S. Southern Command from 2009 to 2012.
Renee P. Novakoff is a Senior Defense Intelligence Analyst in the Directorate of Intelligence, Surveillance,
and Reconnaissance at U.S. Southern Command.
34 JFQ / issue 69, 2nd quarter 2013 ndupress.ndu.edu
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Confronting Transnational Organized Crime: Getting It Right to
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FRASER and NOVAKOFF
S
ecurity threats to the United affect security at the local level, but also dwarfs defense budgets in the subregion
States are evolving. For most have the ability to compromise national and allows significant criminal penetration
of the 20th century and before, security. According to Moisés Naím, “Today into governmental organizations, includ-
threats were state-on-state. Since more than ever, these structures have the ing security forces and judicial systems, as
9/11, however, threats to the homeland have capacity to operate on a global scale, con- well as legitimate financial networks. The
grown to include terrorism and transnational necting remote places of the planet and the overall value to these criminal networks
organized crime (TOC) groups and net- most cosmopolitan cities, above all, with from the cocaine trade alone is more than
works. These networks represent a different accumulated political power. Never have the gross domestic product (GDP) of every
danger than we experienced during the Cold criminals been so global, so rich, or had so country in Latin America except Brazil. The
War. This is not a force-on-force threat but much political influence.”3 White House estimates in its 2011 Strategy
rather something more insidious. These All indicators show that TOC networks to Combat Transnational Organized Crime
borderless groups infiltrate levers of power to will continue to grow, and, in the worst cases, that money-laundering accounts for $1.3
create spaces from which to carry out their they will work with or will corrupt govern- trillion to $3.3 trillion—or between 2 and
activities unimpeded. Currently, these groups ment institutions to form alliances to gain 5 percent of the world’s GDP. Bribery from
are destabilizing friendly governments not by space to do business. Virtually all criminal TOC adds close to $1 trillion to that amount,
direct means but through behind-the-scenes cartels and gangs organize in networks while drug-trafficking generates an estimated
attempts to gain political space to develop connected by violent crime of all types. To $750 billion to $1 trillion, counterfeited and
their illegal businesses. These groups also survive and prosper, these thugs have become pirated goods add another $500 billion,
have ties in the United States, endangering highly intelligent and ruthless. This is affect- and illicit firearms sales generate from $170
our citizens and our economic infrastructure. ing societies throughout the Western Hemi- billion to $320 billion.4 These total to some
The scale of their enterprises, the impact they sphere. In nearly every country in the region, $6.2 trillion—10 percent of the world’s GDP,
have on legal economies, and their prospec- populations state that personal security is placing it behind only the United States
tive continued growth argue for sustained their number one concern. Across the region, and the European Union, but well ahead
national and international attention and murder rates are generally higher than 10 of China, in terms of global GDP ranking.
resources as a tier-one security threat.1
To understand and counter these
threats, the U.S. Government must work TOC networks will corrupt government institutions to form
across bureaucratic lines, which will take new alliances to gain space to do business
organizational constructs and relationships
that are not wedded to parochial border
norms. In addition, the Intelligence Commu- years ago. In addition, drug use is up—a sign Other estimates of global criminal proceeds
nity will be the first line of defense. To fully that regional drug-trafficking is increasing. range from a low of 4 percent to a high of 15
understand the motivations and vulnerabili- Moreover, the traffickers often pay middle- percent of global GDP.5
ties of these TOC networks, the Intelligence men in product as a way to increase their Analysts have described the situation in
Community will need to develop analysts customer base. several countries in Latin America as a crimi-
who can assess a sophisticated mix of open- As the primary transshipment zone nal insurgency. Its effects on Central America
source, law enforcement, and traditional for illicit trafficking to the United States, are clear. The murder rate is the highest in
intelligence. The United States will need to Central America is an epicenter of TOC the world. MS-13 and M18 gang members
deploy a new type of intelligence professional activities. The problem is particularly acute routinely torture and intimidate citizens. The
who is able to work across organizational in the “Northern Tier” countries of Gua- homicide rates in El Salvador and Honduras
and geographic boundaries and is willing to temala, El Salvador, Honduras, and Belize, alone, where MS-13 operates extensively, are
share information. This analyst must be an where criminal networks exploit weak rule 82 and 66 per 100,000 inhabitants, respec-
integrator who can work in the collection of law, corrupt officials, and porous borders tively—over 13 times the rate in the United
and analytical worlds and communicate with to traffic in drugs, precursor chemicals, States.6 Gang leaders in Central American
counterparts in all parts of government, aca- weapons, people, and bulk cash. In all four prisons direct member activities inside the
demia, and partner nations. countries, gangs and other violent criminal United States. MS-13 operates throughout
groups are contributing to escalating murder Central America and in at least 40 U.S. states
Background rates and deteriorating citizen security. This according to a 2008 report from the Federal
Over the past 10 years, TOC networks has overwhelmed civilian law enforcement Bureau of Investigation.7 In October, the
have grown in importance and influence departments and court systems, many of Obama administration designated MS-13 as a
throughout Latin America and the Carib- which were nascent to start with and are drug kingpin organization. The sanctioning
bean. In Brazil, for example, the Red Com- characterized by pervasive corruption and of MS-13 is the latest step in a 21st-century
mandos have woven a complex network chronic underresourcing. arms race between sovereign governments
in which different illegal factions have the Challenges faced by these countries and violent nonstate networks empowered by
power to intimidate, interact, and control are further exacerbated by the economic technology and globalization.8
entire sectors of cities such as Rio de Janeiro power wielded by criminal groups. The TOC access to regional governments is
and São Paulo.2 These groups not only value of cocaine destined for North America gaining momentum and leading to co-option
ndupress.ndu.edu issue 69, 2nd quarter 2013 / JFQ 35
COMMENTARY | Confronting Transnational Organized Crime
in some states and weakening of governance that ultimately cross U.S. borders undetected institutions—ranging from law enforcement
in others. The nexus in some states among thousands of times each day. The actors and judicial sectors to education and health—
TOC networks and elements of govern- along the pipeline form and dissolve alli- that improve opportunities for young people.
ment—including intelligence services and ances quickly, occupy both physical and Understanding the varied political landscape
personnel—and big business figures threatens cyber spaces, and use highly developed insti- (the human terrain) of the hemisphere is also
rule of law.9 New communications technolo- tutions including the global financial system, important as geopolitical fragility opens the
gies have led to new criminal business models as well as ancient smuggling routes and way for gangs and cartels to further destabi-
of widely distributed, constantly shifting methods.13 They are middlemen who have lize civil life.
networks of personal contacts and fleeting little loyalty to one group and often have no More than any other problem the
alliances to produce, market, transport, and illusion of developing their organization into United States faces, this particular challenge
distribute illegal goods—sometimes drugs, a major trafficking network. They make a blurs the line among U.S. institutions. The
sometimes human beings. These activities living by moving goods and ensure that they size, scope, and reach of TOC networks
are abetted by extortion, kidnapping, coun- and their families are safe from the TOC far surpass the ability of any one agency
terfeiting, and whatever else turns a profit.10 group, who may threaten to kill those who or nation to confront this threat alone. In
TOC networks insinuate themselves into do not assist them. Central America, increasing military involve-
the political process through bribery and in ment in domestic security is a reality, at least
some cases have become alternate providers of Effect on the United States until the TOC threat is degraded and the
governance, security, and livelihoods to win For the United States, these networks capabilities of civilian police institutions are
popular support. As an example, members challenge national welfare, not necessarily expanded. This will not happen overnight,
of Mexican cartels reside in Central America national security. Strong U.S. law enforce- and it will not happen in isolation. This effort
and, according to former Guatemalan Presi- ment efforts and effective policing have requires the commitment of Latin American
dent Alvaro Colom, have influence over entire kept gangs and cartels from having the governments and their societies. It requires
departments there. Polls in Guatemala show same effect they do in other countries in the their commitment to build the capacity of
that a majority of citizens would exchange hemisphere, but their influence is growing. their law enforcement, judicial, and penal
less democracy for more security.11 Guatemala Latin American gangs with connections organizations. It requires their commitment
City is experiencing record levels of violent to the United States are primarily MS-13 to the use of their militaries only as a security
crime and at the same time a high-rise build- (estimated at 6,000 to 10,000 U.S. members) bridge as they develop other institutional
ing construction boom, though with only a and the 18th Street Gang (estimated at 30,000 capacities. It requires their commitment to
25 percent occupancy rate, which is usually a U.S. members), with up to 70,000 for both address endemic corruption throughout
sign of large-scale money-laundering that can in Central America (primarily El Salvador, their societies. And it requires their commit-
only be successful with the support of govern- Honduras, and Guatemala), where they chal- ment to engage regional and international
ment agents.12 lenge local authorities for control of streets institutions to enhance coordination and
A key to countering TOC groups is and towns. cooperation—supporting the development of
understanding the smaller networks that national and regional security plans, enhanc-
make up these larger groups. Transnational Pushing Back on TOC ing regional defense and security institutions,
criminal organizations can move anything, The 2010 National Security Strategy and improving human rights training.
and will for a price. Major crime groups acknowledges the challenge these organiza- Furthermore, it takes concerted col-
such as Mexican cartels or the Revolution- tions pose and that combating transnational laboration and sustained commitment by
ary Armed Forces of Colombia contract criminal and trafficking networks requires a the United States and the international
with smaller, local criminal organizations “multidimensional strategy that safeguards community—both governmental and non-
or “transportisters” that will move goods citizens, breaks the financial strength of governmental organizations—to address this
from one country to the next. These are criminal and terrorist networks, disrupts complex problem and help support regional
governments in building strong, capable,
and accountable institutions. Innovative
the actors along the pipeline form and dissolve
approaches, creative public-private col-
alliances quicky, occupy both physical and cyber spaces, laborations, and synchronization of efforts
and use highly developed institutions among numerous U.S. Federal agencies—the
Department of State, Drug Enforcement
Administration, U.S. Agency for Interna-
important elements of the TOC network but illicit trafficking networks, defeats trans- tional Development, and Department of
little is known about them. These franchises national criminal organizations, fights Homeland Security—will be necessary to
operate in, and control, specific geographic government corruption, strengthens the create a cooperative national and interna-
territories that allow them to function in a rule of law, bolsters judicial systems, and tional network that is stronger and more
relatively safe environment. These pipelines, improves transparency.”14 The solution to resilient than any criminal network. Key to
or chains of networks, are adaptive and able transnational crime in this hemisphere lies success will be information-sharing within
to move a multiplicity of illicit products in helping improve Latin America’s domestic the U.S. interagency community, partner
(cocaine, weapons, humans, and bulk cash) institutions and coordination across these
36 JFQ / issue 69, 2nd quarter 2013 ndupress.ndu.edu
FRASER and NOVAKOFF
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Servicemembers secure crew of drug-smuggling vessel in Gulf of Aden
nations, and finally among other countries (DOD), and they require extensive invest- With the exception of the first mission set
in question. ments of time and effort. (detection and monitoring), helping partner
In an effective strategy to combat illicit nations build and sustain their security
A Way Ahead trafficking, all approaches have relevance. capacity is a key component of all DOD
Interagency focus and organization The disruption line of effort should be bal- counter-TOC efforts:
are needed for the United States to have anced against partner nation capacity. If
the greatest chance at pushing back TOC the social services and effective local law ■■detection and monitoring
network gains in the hemisphere. To succeed, enforcement can only fill a small vacuum, ■■counternarcotics training
partner nation capacity must match or at then we should only target a small area. ■■counternarcotics support
least keep pace with national and regional Operations that create a vacuum in TOC ■■defense equipment (Foreign Military
campaigns to arrest TOC leaders and dis- operations and businesses should be paired Financing/Foreign Military Sales)
mantle their networks. Building capacity with aggressive non–law enforcement ■■defense training (International Mili-
has a military dimension, but is far more engagement and social services in a coor- tary Education and Training)
dependent on other branches of the U.S. dinated fashion. This type of coordination ■■defense institution-building
Government—the Departments of State and requires agencies beyond law enforcement ■■human rights training
Justice, for example. Capacity of police forces and DOD, from both the country itself and ■■multinational training exercises
must be supported by investigative and judi- from international contributors. ■■defense engagement
cial capacity and competency. The judicial ■■TOC network analysis and
branches must be led by uncorrupted and DOD Role in Countering TOC information-sharing.
effective legislative and executive branches. DOD plays a small but important sup-
Democratic partner nation capacity devel- porting role in countering TOC networks; it The role of helping partner nations
opment is dependent on the support of the brings unique capabilities in support of U.S. build capacity cannot be overstated. But this
partner nation population. These reforms are and partner nation law enforcement. Its role role will only succeed when it supports each
not the domain of the Department of Defense in countering TOC networks generally falls regional partner’s commitment and invest-
into the following supporting lines of effort. ment to build its institutional capacity. The
ndupress.ndu.edu issue 69, 2nd quarter 2013 / JFQ 37
COMMENTARY | Confronting Transnational Organized Crime
main effort for the U.S. interagency com- organized criminal networks in the Western U.S. Deputy Attorney General David W. Ogden
munity should be to help build and sustain Hemisphere, the United States will face an cited 15 percent of world gross domestic product
as the total annual turnover of transnational
partner nation capacity across law enforce- asymmetric security threat in the homeland
organized crime networks. See Josh Meyer, “U.S.
ment, military support to law enforce- in the next several years. Left unchecked,
attorney general calls for global effort to fight
ment in the counternarcotics mission, the TOC networks will continue to infiltrate
organized crime,” Los Angeles Times, October
judiciary, and social organizations. There governments, businesses, and financial
13, 2009, available at <articles.latimes.com/
print/2009/oct/13/nation/na-crime13>.
6 Isabella Bennett and Stewart M. Patrick,
the WISRD environment brings a more
“CFR: Sanctions on MS-13: Not Enough but a
holistic approach to understanding TOC activities and
Good First Step,” Council on Foreign Relations
supports decisionmakers in developing strategies Blog, October 27, 2012, available at <http://blogs.
cfr.org/patrick/2012/10/26/sanctions-on-ms-
13-not-enough-but-a-good-first-step/>.
7 Ibid.
are significant capacity problems that could institutions, increasing the difficulty of
8 Ibid.
be addressed by military engagement and countering these insidious organizations
9 Strategy to Combat Transnational Organized
cooperation that could have substantial before they reach more robustly into the
Crime.
short- to mid-term impacts in creating Nation. Information-sharing both in the
10 Robert Killebrew, “Criminal Insurgency in
conditions for deeper reform and progress. United States and among its partner nations
the Americas and Beyond,” PRISM 2, no. 3 (June
These would include improving border will be a key facet of countering these groups. 2011), available at <www.ndu.edu/press/criminal-
security and partner nation military capac- Stovepiping information helps the enemy. insurgency.html>.
ity to support law enforcement in disrupting We must develop a new prism from which 11 Dinorah Azpuru, Political Culture of
and interdicting movement and transfer of to confront this new type of enemy, which Democracy in Guatemala, 2010: Democratic Con-
illicit products. has no boundaries. WISRD is the first step, solidation in the Americas in Hard Times, IX Study
Finally, one of the continuing impor- and it must be followed up by increased of Democratic Culture of Guatemalans, Vanderbilt
University, May 2011, available at <www.vander-
tant roles of the U.S. military in supporting information-sharing between the interagen-
bilt.edu/lapop/guatemala/2010-political-culture-
the effort to counter TOC networks is intel- cies and partner nations so the TOC environ-
English.pdf>.
ligence analysis and information-sharing ment can be mapped. Then we can have the
12 Robert Killebrew and Jennifer Beranl, Crime
throughout the region. U.S. Southern Com- same common operational picture to support
Wars: Gangs, Cartels, and U.S. National Security
mand’s Whole-of-Society Information actions against TOC networks in order to
(Washington, DC: Center for a New American
Sharing for Regional Display (WISRD) gain the advantage. JFQ Security, September 2010), available at <www.cnas.
program was developed to create a whole- org/node/5022>.
of-society, enterprise process capability that 13 Farah.
provides participating organizations with NOTES 14 National Security Strategy (Washington,
a comprehensive common visualization of DC: The White House, May 2010), 49, available
the TOC environment to satisfy a range of 1 Douglas Farah, Transnational Organized at <www.whitehouse.gov/sites/default/files/
Crime, Terrorism, and Criminalized States in rss_viewer/national_security_strategy.pdf>.
agency information requirements and allows
Latin America: An Emerging Tier-One National
information-sharing across U.S. agencies
Security Priority (Carlisle Barracks, PA: Strategic
and partner nations. The WISRD model
Studies Institute, August 2012).
provides the fidelity via a three-dimensional 2 Juan Carlos Garzón, Mafia & Co.: The
spatial and temporal visualization that can Criminal Networks in Mexico, Brazil, and Colom-
be tailored to enable users to intuitively bia (Washington, DC: Woodrow Wilson Interna-
analyze complex data and formulate better tional Center for Scholars, June 2008), 11.
conclusions. WISRD not only promotes the 3 Moisés Naím, Illicit: How Smugglers, Traf-
“responsibility to share” within the U.S. inter- fickers and Copycats Are Hijacking the Global
agency community, but also allows users to Economy (New York: Doubleday, 2005).
4 Strategy to Combat Transnational Orga-
reach out and share information with nontra-
nized Crime: Addressing Converging Threats to
ditional whole-of-society partners to include
National Security (Washington, DC: The White
the academic and business communities. The
House, July 2011), available at <www.whitehouse.
WISRD environment brings a more holistic
gov/administration/eop/nsc/transnational-crime>.
approach to understanding TOC activities 5 Farah; for details, see Estimating Illicit
and supports decisionmakers in developing Financial Flows Resulting from Drug Traffick-
strategies to combat the complicated and ing and Other Transnational Organized Crimes
fluid TOC problem set. (Vienna: United Nations Office on Drugs and
Crime, October 2011), available at <www.unodc.
Outlook org/documents/data-and-analysis/Studies/Illicit_
Without a concerted U.S. interagency financial_flows_2011_web.pdf>. On the higher
end, in a speech to Interpol in Singapore in 2009,
effort to counter the threat of transnational
38 JFQ / issue 69, 2nd quarter 2013 ndupress.ndu.edu