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CONTRACT NUMBER Route Availability Planning Tool 5b. GRANT NUMBER 5c. PROGRAM ELEMENT NUMBER 6. AUTHOR(S) 5d. PROJECT NUMBER 5e. TASK NUMBER 5f. WORK UNIT NUMBER 7. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES) 8. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION Massachusetts Institute of Technology,Lincoln Laboratory,244 Wood REPORT NUMBER Street,Lexington,MA,02420-9108 9. SPONSORING/MONITORING AGENCY NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES) 10. SPONSOR/MONITOR’S ACRONYM(S) 11. SPONSOR/MONITOR’S REPORT NUMBER(S) 12. DISTRIBUTION/AVAILABILITY STATEMENT Approved for public release; distribution unlimited 13. SUPPLEMENTARY NOTES 14. ABSTRACT 15. SUBJECT TERMS 16. SECURITY CLASSIFICATION OF: 17. LIMITATION OF 18. NUMBER 19a. NAME OF ABSTRACT OF PAGES RESPONSIBLE PERSON a. REPORT b. ABSTRACT c. THIS PAGE Same as 2 unclassified unclassified unclassified Report (SAR) Standard Form 298 (Rev. 8-98) Prescribed by ANSI Std Z39-18 2012 | www.ll.mit.edu Tech Notes Route Availability The Federal Aviation Administration a user-friendly format. Automated route (FAA) estimates that 70% of air traffic conditions displayed on a data-rich inter- delays result from inclement weather. face help relieve the decision-making Planning Tool These delays translate into significant burden typically faced by air traffic man- revenue losses for airlines. For example, a agers—gathering weather information, mentally envisioning the repercussions of report from the U.S. Congress Joint Eco- the weather data, rechecking for rapidly nomic Committee concluded that air traf- A decision support technology changing weather, and then deciding to fic delays cost U.S. airlines approximately allow aircraft to depart. that improves management of $19.1 billion dollars in operating costs The RAPT concept was initially sup- in 2007 [1]. Approximately two-thirds flight departures at airports ported by the Port Authority of New of weather-related delays are caused by York and New Jersey, and the FAA in during thunderstorms thunderstorms (convective weather). 2007 established a program to field an While thunderstorms do not completely operational prototype. Currently, RAPT is shut down the airspace, they significantly being used by airports in the New York/ disrupt the structured flight-routing and New Jersey and Chicago regions; RAPT is control process that is the foundation of expected to be deployed to the Potomac the U.S. air traffic control system. and Philadelphia regions by 2015. To address the problem of costly delays triggered by thunderstorms, MIT Improving departure rates Lincoln Laboratory developed a decision Often during periods of disruptive support tool that helps air traffic manag- weather, air traffic managers concen- ers determine when to close and reopen trate on landing the planes in the air and departure routes during periods of con- let departures wait at their gates. The vective weather. The Route Availability backlog of departures builds, arrivals Planning Tool (RAPT) provides current, get caught in the traffic jam, and airline reliable route-availability information in schedules downstream of the affected Technical Point of Contact Richard DeLaura Weather Sensing Group [email protected] 781-981-4699 For further information, contact Communications and Community Outreach Office MIT Lincoln Laboratory 244 Wood Street Route Availability Planning Tool display. The lower panel shows departure route timelines that Lexington, MA 02420-9108 indicate the impact of thunderstorms on specific routes in the next 30 minutes; the upper panel 781-981-4204 has an animated display of forecast weather with nominal departure trajectories overlaid. airport are pushed out because planes are to each planned route for departure made, ranging from modest savings of not reaching their destinations. times up to 30 minutes into the future. under an hour to slightly more than 10 While departure delays are a signifi- The RAPT user interface displays RAPT hours. The study team, using an FAA cant problem at all major airports, the timelines and a weather animation standard calculation, translated these time congested airspace in the Northeast and window. Each row of the timeline display savings into operational cost savings for upper Midwest United States is espe- corresponds to a departure route. Each the airlines and passenger “value time.” cially susceptible to long delays brought column corresponds to a future departure For example, on one August 2007 day at on by thunderstorms. The FAA estimates time, starting at the current time and Newark Liberty International Airport, that one-third of all commercial airline extending out 30 minutes into the future $58,000+ in operating costs and passenger flights daily pass through the New York in 5-minute intervals. The color of each value time could have been saved through airspace. Studies have shown that small timeline bin represents the departure reducing downtime for departing aircraft. increases in airport departure rates in the status. Yellow and red bins have text As users became more comfortable Northeast during severe weather could annotations giving the trajectory phase with the RAPT prototype, they began significantly reduce delays throughout and the echo-top (a radar-indicated “top” to change their procedures for reopen- the National Airspace System [2]. of a storm) height at the blockage location. ing departure routes. Prior to RAPT, The animation window overlays predicted departure managers relied on “path- RAPT’s objective determinations locations of departing aircraft on forecasts finders”—pilots who volunteered to fly allow managers to make informed, of weather events. not-yet-reopened routes to test if the timely decisions. Using RAPT guidance, air traffic routes could be reopened. Coordinating managers can quickly determine if and pathfinder activity and waiting for the when specific routes are free of serious pathfinder report takes as long as 60 to RAPT improves departure rates by weather impacts and available for use. 90 minutes, keeping potentially available determining the specific routes and times A prompt decision is important. At routes closed until pilots finally report that will be affected by operationally major New York airports, 40 or more back. Reopening routes based on RAPT’s significant thunderstorm activity before a flights may be scheduled for departure status data has reduced the use of path- storm moves into a specific region. RAPT in a typical 30-minute window; at an finders, replacing that approach with helps decrease weather-related departure airport like O’Hare in Chicago, as many more efficient, proactive planning. delays and ground holding by providing as 60 departures may be scheduled in a Furthermore, traffic managers have air traffic managers with automated, 30-minute period. begun to reopen closed routes when they objective guidance for RAPT is distributed to the various see that the “partial route blockage” (yel- • Visualizing the impact of approaching participants in the departure manage- low) status is accompanied by improving weather systems ment process (air traffic managers at weather-impact trends, indicating an • Determining when to close and reopen airport control towers, FAA centers, and imminent post-storm “route clear” (green) departure routes operations centers for major airlines in status. This trend was first noticed in sum- • Determining optimum departure rout- the region) to reduce the effort needed to mer 2009, when routes were reopened ing on the basis of forecasts of convec- coordinate decisions and to enable proac- prior to the appearance of a post-storm tive weather tive decisions by participants in the chain. “green” in 23% of the cases, and in 2010, • Determining when to allow limited the “reopen-prior-to-green” percentage route usage during thunderstorms Positive results from RAPT usage increased to 35%. RAPT improves the traditional method By facilitating the timely reopening Concept for determining when to allow limited of routes and alleviating airport depar- RAPT integrates several algorithms for route usage during thunderstorms, how ture backlogs, RAPT is enabling sub- objectively predicting convective weather to reroute air traffic, and when to reopen stantial reductions in airline operating impacts on departure routes with an routes closed because of severe weather. costs, in financial losses experienced by interface tailored to provide quick deci- Standard practice that relied on human air-travel-associated businesses, and in sion support to air traffic managers. The judgment had resulted in an approach passengers’ wait time.  algorithms translate high-resolution, that fostered overly cautious decisions, deterministic forecasts of precipitation leading to longer delays in getting air References 1. “Your Flight Has Been Delayed Again,” intensity and storm height from the traffic flowing again. RAPT’s objective Report by the Joint Economic Committee FAA’s Corridor Integrated Weather determinations, backed by CIWS data, Majority Staff, May 2008. System (CIWS) into probabilities that allow managers to make informed, timely 2. S. Allen, S.G. Gaddy, and J.E. Evans, airspace affected by thunderstorms will decisions. Moreover, managers at dif- “Delay Causality and Reduction at New be passable. This forecast of airspace ferent regional facilities equipped with York Airports Using Terminal Weather availability is combined with a model for RAPT have a common set of determina- Information Systems,” Project Report ATC- departure route usage that incorporates tions that can be used for coordinated 291, MIT Lincoln Laboratory, 2001. both statistically averaged flight trajec- route management. 3. M. Robinson, R. DeLaura, J.E. Evans, and tories and observed air traffic control Studies carried out by Lincoln Labo- S. McGettigan, “Operational Usage of the tolerance for the deviations pilots make ratory and FAA personnel at New York Route Availability Planning Tool during the to avoid weather. airports using prototype RAPT systems 2007 Convective Weather Season,” American Meteorological Society, 2008. RAPT automatically calculates and during convective weather concluded that assigns a route-blockage status color—red reductions in hours of departure delay This work is sponsored by the FAA under U.S. (blocked), yellow (partial or uncertain can be realized by utilizing RAPT [3]. The Air Force contract, FA8721-05-C-0002. Opinions, blockage), dark green (insignificant amount of time saved at an airport varied interpretations, and recommendations are not weather encountered), or green (clear)— over the days on which assessments were necessarily endorsed by the U.S. government.