DTIC ADA578028: Overcoming Obstacles to Peace: Local Factors in Nation-Building

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This volume analyzes the impediments that local conditions pose to
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successful outcomes of nation-building interventions in conflict-affected c
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areas. Previous RAND studies of nation-building focused on external
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circumstances, first identifying the conditions that gave rise to conflicts g
or threatened to perpetuate them, and then determining how external O
and local actors were able to modify or work around them to promote b
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enduring peace. It examines in depth six varied societies: Cambodia, t
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El Salvador, Bosnia and Herzegovina, East Timor, Sierra Leone, and c
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subsequent progress along five dimensions: security, democratization, P
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gave rise to or fueled conflict often is not feasible in the time frame of
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assessed. The findings suggest the importance of setting realistic to LocaL Factors in nation-BuiLding
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expectations—neither expecting nation-building operations to quickly s

lift countries out of poverty and create liberal democracies, nor being in
swayed by a negative stereotype of nation-building that does not n
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recognize its signal achievements in the great majority of cases.
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Corporation monograph series. RAND
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facing the public and private sectors.
All RAND monographs undergo rigorous JamJuelsie D eo. btbainyslo, Rs,e tkhe iGth. CJoRannese,,
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LocaL Factors in nation-BuiLding
James Dobbins, LaureL e. miLLer, stephanie
pezarD, Christopher s. Chivvis, JuLie e. tayLor,
Keith Crane, CaLin trenKov-Wermuth,
teWoDaJ mengistu
Sponsored by the Carnegie Corporation of New York
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The research described in this report was prepared for the Carnegie
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Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
Dobbins, James, 1942-
Overcoming obstacles to peace : local factors in nation-building / James Dobbins,
Laurel E. Miller, Stephanie Pezard, Christopher S. Chivvis, Julie E. Taylor, Keith
Crane, Calin Trenkov-Wermuth, Tewodaj Mengistu.
pages cm.
Includes bibliographical references.
ISBN 978-0-8330-7860-5 (pbk. : alk. paper)
1. Nation-building. 2. Nation-building--Case studies. 3. Peace-building.
4. Democratization. I. Title.
JZ6300.D65 2013
327.1'72--dc23
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Cover, top photo: Cambodian troops arrive to reinforce other troops engaged in fighting
in Phnom Penh, 1974 (AP/Chor Yuthy). Bottom photo: Cambodian garment factory
workers travel home from work in Kampong Chhnang province, north of Phnom
Penh, 2009 (AP/Heng Sinith).
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Preface
Following on a series of RAND Corporation studies of nation-building
interventions in conflict-affected areas undertaken by the United
Nations, United States, European Union, and others, this volume ana-
lyzes the impediments that local conditions pose to successful out-
comes in these interventions. Previous RAND studies have focused on
the activities of external interveners. This monograph shifts the per-
spective from external actors to internal circumstances, first identify-
ing the local circumstances that gave rise to conflicts or threatened to
perpetuate them, and then determining how external actors and local
leaders were able to modify or work around those circumstances to pro-
mote an enduring peace. The book aims to provide policymakers with
the means to judge with greater clarity how local circumstances are
likely to affect their prospects for success and what sorts of outcomes
might be realistically achievable.
This research was sponsored by the Carnegie Corporation of
New York and conducted within the International Security and
Defense Policy Center of the RAND National Security Research Divi-
sion (NSRD). NSRD conducts research and analysis on defense and
national security topics for the U.S. and allied defense, foreign policy,
homeland security, and intelligence communities and foundations
and other nongovernmental organizations that support defense and
national security analysis.
For more information on the International Security and Defense
Policy Center, see http://www.rand.org/nsrd/ndri/centers/isdp.html or
contact the director (contact information is provided on the web page).
iii

Contents
Preface ............................................................................. iii
Figures ............................................................................. xi
Tables .............................................................................xiii
Summary ..........................................................................xv
Acknowledgments .......................................................... xxxvii
Abbreviations ................................................................. xxxix
CHAPTER ONE
Introduction ....................................................................... 1
CHAPTER TWO
Which Local Factors Pose Challenges to Nation-Building? .............11
Factors That Raise the Risk of Conflict Renewal .............................12
Civil War Onset .................................................................12
Civil War Recurrence ......................................................... 20
How Great Is the Risk of Recurrence? ...................................... 24
Structure of the Case Studies ....................................................25
Tailoring Nation-Building to Local Factors .................................. 26
CHAPTER THREE
Cambodia .........................................................................29
Local Factors Before the Peace ................................................. 30
Geographical and Geopolitical ................................................33
Cultural and Social .............................................................35
Economic ....................................................................... 36
Political ...........................................................................39
v