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Reports may include research findings on a specific topic that is limited in scope; present discussions of the methodology employed in research; provide literature reviews, survey instru- ments, modeling exercises, guidelines for practitioners and research professionals, and supporting documentation; or deliver preliminary findings. All RAND reports un- dergo rigorous peer review to ensure that they meet high standards for research quality and objectivity. Balancing Rated Personnel Requirements and Inventories James H. Bigelow, Albert A. Robbert Prepared for the United States Air Force Approved for public release; distribution unlimited PROJECT AIR FORCE The research described in this report was sponsored by the United States Air Force under Contract FA7014-06-C-0001. Further information may be obtained from the Strategic Planning Division, Directorate of Plans, Hq USAF. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Bigelow, J. H. Balancing rated personnel requirements and inventories / James H. Bigelow, Albert A. Robbert. p. cm. Includes bibliographical references. ISBN 978-0-8330-5094-6 (pbk. : alk. paper) 1. United States. Air Force—Officers—Rating of. 2. United States. Air Force—Officers—Supply and demand. 3. Air pilots, Military—Rating of—United States. 4. Air pilots, Military—Supply and demand—United States. 5. United States. Air Force—Personnel management. I. Robbert, Albert A., 1944- II. Title. UG793.B54 2011 358.4'10332—dc22 2011012225 The RAND Corporation is a nonprofit institution that helps improve policy and decisionmaking through research and analysis. RAND’s publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors. R ® is a registered trademark. © Copyright 2011 RAND Corporation Permission is given to duplicate this document for personal use only, as long as it is unaltered and complete. Copies may not be duplicated for commercial purposes. Unauthorized posting of RAND documents to a non-RAND website is prohibited. RAND documents are protected under copyright law. For information on reprint and linking permissions, please visit the RAND permissions page (http://www.rand.org/publications/ permissions.html). Published 2011 by the RAND Corporation 1776 Main Street, P.O. Box 2138, Santa Monica, CA 90407-2138 1200 South Hayes Street, Arlington, VA 22202-5050 4570 Fifth Avenue, Suite 600, Pittsburgh, PA 15213-2665 RAND URL: http://www.rand.org To order RAND documents or to obtain additional information, contact Distribution Services: Telephone: (310) 451-7002; Fax: (310) 451-6915; Email: [email protected] Preface This report documents RAND Corporation research on policies to bring requirements for rated personnel into balance with inventories and subsequently to maintain them in balance. For at least a decade, the Air Force has attempted to achieve this balance by producing and absorbing rated personnel as fast as possible. However, shortages have persisted and have even grown, so the Air Force has shifted emphasis to reducing the requirements for rated personnel. The project that produced this report is one of a series of Rated Force Management stud- ies cosponsored by the Air Force Deputy Chief of Staff for Air, Space, and Information Opera- tions, Plans and Requirements (AF/A3/5), and the Deputy Chief of Staff for Manpower and Personnel (AF/A1). The study was conducted within the Manpower, Personnel, and Training Program of RAND Project AIR FORCE. Related work is reported in the following publications: • Fighter Drawdown Dynamics: Effects on Aircrew Inventories, William W. Taylor, James H. Bigelow, and John A. Ausink (MG-855-AF). • Absorbing Air Force Fighter Pilots: Parameters, Problems, and Policy Options, William W. Taylor, James H. Bigelow, S. Craig Moore, Leslie Wickman, Brent Thomas, and Richard S. Marken (MR-1550-AF). This report is intended to assist senior Air Force policymakers in developing policies that will maintain a balance between requirements for and inventory of rated personnel. The reader is assumed to be familiar with the Air Force and, in particular, with aircrew management. RAND Project AIR FORCE RAND Project AIR FORCE (PAF), a division of the RAND Corporation, is the U.S. Air Force’s federally funded research and development center for studies and analyses. PAF pro- vides the Air Force with independent analyses of policy alternatives affecting the development, employment, combat readiness, and support of current and future aerospace forces. Research is conducted in four programs: Force Modernization and Employment; Manpower, Personnel, and Training; Resource Management; and Strategy and Doctrine. Additional information about PAF is available on our website: http://www.rand.org/paf/ iii Contents Preface ........................................................................................................... iii Figures and Tables .............................................................................................vii Summary ........................................................................................................ ix Acknowledgments ............................................................................................xiii Abbreviations ...................................................................................................xv CHAPTER ONE Introduction ..................................................................................................... 1 Impacts of Rated Shortages ..................................................................................... 5 The Rated Staff Requirements Integrated process team ..................................................... 6 CHAPTER TWO Elements of an Enduring Process for Maintaining the Balance ....................................... 9 Institutionalizing and Regularizing the Recategorization Option ......................................... 9 Modification of the Annual Rated Requirements Review ...............................................10 Ranking Rated Staff and Test Positions ....................................................................11 Potential Risk ..................................................................................................12 Making the Conversion Process More Responsive ..........................................................13 Conversion to Civil Service or Contractor .................................................................13 Conversion to NonRated Active Military ..................................................................13 Conversion to Air National Guard or Air Force Reserve ................................................14 Planning for Effects of Major Actions on Rated Requirements ...........................................15 Actions with Longer-Term Effects.............................................................................16 Creation of a New Career Field .............................................................................16 Redesign of Rated Positions .................................................................................17 Developing and Maintaining Some Spare Production and Absorption Capacity .......................18 Benefits of Spare Capacity ...................................................................................19 Developing Spare Capacity ..................................................................................19 Monitoring Spare Capacity ................................................................................. 20 CHAPTER THREE Responsibilities and Enforcement ..........................................................................21 Responsibilities ..................................................................................................21 The Enforcement Mechanism .................................................................................21 Bibliography ....................................................................................................25 v Figures and Tables Figures 1.1. April 2007 Projections: No Overall Rated Officer Shortage .................................. 2 1.2. April 2007 Projections: Growing Shortage of Fighter Pilots .................................. 3 1.3. Comparison of Recent Red Lines and Blue Lines .............................................. 4 1.4. Recent Fighter Pilot Red Lines and Blue Lines ................................................. 4 2.1. Notional Evolution of the UAS Operator Career Field .......................................17 2.2. Size Distribution of Offices with Rated Staff Positions .......................................18 3.1. An Enduring Process for Reconciling Rated Officer Inventory and Requirements ...... 22 Tables 1.1. Categories of Rated Officers as of FY 2009 ..................................................... 2 1.2. Rated Requirements by Class as of FY 2008 .................................................... 6 vii