DTIC ADA539509: Bridging the Gap: Developing a Tool to Support Local Civilian and Military Disaster Preparedness

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Bridging the Gap: Developing a Tool to Support Local Civilian and
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Military Disaster Preparedness
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Bridging the Gap
Developing a Tool to Support
Local Civilian and Military Disaster
Preparedness
Melinda Moore, Michael A. Wermuth,
Laura Werber Castaneda, Anita Chandra,
Darcy Noricks, Adam C. Resnick, Carolyn Chu,
James J. Burks
Prepared for the Office of the Secretary of Defense
Approved for public release; distribution unlimited
Center for Military Health Policy Research
A JOINT ENDEAVOR OF RAND HEALTH AND THE
RAND NATIONAL DEFENSE RESEARCH INSTITUTE
The research reported here was prepared for the Office of the Secretary of Defense (OSD).
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Commands, the Department of the Navy, the Marine Corps, the defense agencies, and the
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Preface
The Aum Shinrikyo sarin attacks in Tokyo in March 1995, punctuated four weeks later with
the bombing of the Alfred P. Murrah Federal Building in Oklahoma City, led U.S. policy-
makers to step up systematic disaster preparedness efforts, especially for terrorism. Such efforts
accelerated sharply after the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001, including the creation
of the U.S. Department of Homeland Security and a plethora of federal initiatives. Against a
backdrop of natural disasters that occur each year in the United States and heightened concern
about another influenza pandemic, there is an emerging national consensus that the best path
is an all-hazards approach to disaster preparedness planning and that effective local planning
is critical.
Federal funding supports preparedness initiatives across cabinet departments, as well as
grants to states and certain major metropolitan areas. At the local level, multiple agencies are
grappling with a patchwork of federal funding streams and associated grant requirements.
Despite clear recognition that disasters occur locally—or at least start that way—most atten-
tion to date seems to have been on “top-down” planning from the federal level, representing
stovepiped initiatives from different federal agencies. With that in mind, the Office of the
Assistant Secretary of Defense for Health Affairs in the U.S. Department of Defense saw an
opportunity to strengthen local level disaster preparedness planning by military installations
and their civilian counterparts—local governments and local health-care providers, especially
the U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs.
This is an interim report for the first phase of a larger study that aims to develop a disas-
ter preparedness support tool for local military and civilian planners. It reflects the formative
research carried out from October 2006 through May 2009. It describes the current policy
context for domestic emergency preparedness, risk analysis, and capabilities-based planning—
the starting points for local planning—as well as results from interviews with local military
and civilian planners at five selected sites. All of this information forms the basis for the pro-
posed tool that is described in the final chapter of the report. The next phase of the study will
include development and field testing of a proof-of-concept prototype of the tool, which will
be supported by funding from the Department of Veterans Affairs.
This report should be of interest to federal, state, and local policymakers and disaster
preparedness planners across the range of departments and agencies that have responsibility
for domestic disaster management. It should be of particular interest to the Departments of
Defense, Veterans Affairs, Homeland Security, and Health and Human Services and the local
recipients of their funding and policy guidance. The report should also be of interest to the
U.S. Congress and others interested in domestic preparedness that enhances effective and effi-
iii
iv Bridging the Gap: Developing a Tool to Support Local Civilian and Military Disaster Preparedness
cient disaster response across the wide range of threats that constitute the new realities of the
21st century.
This research was sponsored by the Office of the Assistant Secretary of Defense for Health
Affairs and conducted jointly by RAND Health’s Center for Military Health Policy Research
and the Forces and Resources Policy Center of the RAND National Defense Research Insti-
tute, a federally funded research and development center sponsored by the Office of the Sec-
retary of Defense, the Joint Staff, the Unified Combatant Commands, the Navy, the Marine
Corps, the defense agencies, and the defense Intelligence Community.
For more information about the report, contact Melinda Moore or Michael Wermuth.
They can be reached by email at [email protected] or Michael_Wermuth@rand.
org; or by phone at 703-413-1100, x5234 and x5414, respectively. For more information on
RAND’s Center for Military Health Policy Research, contact the co-directors, Susan Hosek or
Terri Tanielian. They can be reached by email at [email protected] or Terri_Tanielian@
rand.org or by phone at 703-413-1100, x7255 and x5404, respectively. For more information
about RAND’s Forces and Resources Policy Center, contact the Director, James Hosek. He
can be reached by email at [email protected]; by phone at 310-393-0411, extension
7183; or by mail at the RAND Corporation, 1776 Main Street, P.O. Box 2138, Santa Monica,
California 90407-2138. More information about RAND is available at www.rand.org.
Contents
Preface ........................................................................................................... iii
Figures ........................................................................................................... ix
Tables ............................................................................................................ xi
Summary .......................................................................................................xiii
Acknowledgments ............................................................................................ xxi
Abbreviations ................................................................................................ xxiii
CHAPTER ONE
Introduction ..................................................................................................... 1
CHAPTER TWO
National Policy Context for Local Preparedness Planning ............................................. 3
The Underpinnings of Homeland Security Policy ........................................................... 3
The Stafford Act Provides the Statutory Authority for Federal Disaster Assistance to Local
Areas, Including Certain Defense Support of Civil Authorities .................................... 3
The Homeland Security Council and Several Cabinet Departments Have Critical Roles in
Disaster Management .................................................................................... 4
National Strategies and Presidential Directives Provide Additional Detail to National
Guidance for Domestic Disaster Management ........................................................ 4
The National Response Framework Sets the Context for Coordinated Domestic Response,
Including Defense Support of Civil Authorities....................................................... 5
The National Preparedness Presidential Directive Established the All-Hazards Approach to
Disaster Planning Relevant to This Project ............................................................ 5
The National Preparedness Guidelines and Associated Documents Establish the
Capabilities-Based Preparedness Context Relevant to This Project ................................. 6
Local Disaster Preparedness in the Civilian Sector .......................................................... 7
Federal Structures and Programs for States ................................................................. 7
State Structures ................................................................................................. 8
Department of Defense Authorities for Civil Support and Preparedness Activities ..................... 9
National Strategy for Homeland Security .................................................................. 9
Constitutional Basis for Civil Support .....................................................................10
Posse Comitatus Act ..........................................................................................10
Statutory Authority for Domestic Missions ...............................................................10
Statutory Authority for Dealing with Nuclear, Chemical, and Biological Terrorists .................11
Summary .........................................................................................................12
v
vi Bridging the Gap: Developing a Tool to Support Local Civilian and Military Disaster Preparedness
CHAPTER THREE
Risk-Informed Capabilities-Based Planning .............................................................13
What Is Risk Analysis? .........................................................................................13
Applying Risk Analysis: The Terrorism Example ...........................................................14
Connecting Risk Assessment to Risk Management ........................................................15
Threat Reduction .............................................................................................16
Consequence Reduction .....................................................................................16
Capabilities-Based Planning ...................................................................................17
Linking Risk Assessment and Capabilities-Based Planning ...............................................18
CHAPTER FOUR
Local Level Civilian and Military Disaster Preparedness Activities .................................21
Methods ..........................................................................................................21
Site Selection ..................................................................................................21
Data Collection ...............................................................................................25
Data Analysis ................................................................................................. 28
Results ........................................................................................................... 28
Civilian Community Networks Were Broader Than Local Military Networks ..................... 28
Military and Civilians Plan Separately but Use an All-Hazards Approach and Often
Participate Together in Exercises ...................................................................... 30
Military and Civilian Planners Carry Out Risk Assessments and Capabilities-Based
Planning Based on Different Tools Available to Them ..............................................35
Local Military Threat Assessments Use Highly Variable Processes .....................................37
Local Civilian Threat Assessments Are Even More Variable Than Those by the Military .......... 40
The Department of Veterans Affairs Uses a Standardized Approach to Combined Threat
and Vulnerability Assessment ..........................................................................41
Military Installations Are Also Better at Vulnerability Assessments ....................................41
Local Civilian Planners Use a Variety of Vulnerability-Assessment Methods ........................ 42
The Department of Veterans Affairs Guidebook Specifies a Standardized Approach to
Vulnerability Assessment ............................................................................... 42
We Identified Facilitators and Barriers to Local Disaster Preparedness That Are Important
to Consider in Designing a Planning Support Tool ................................................ 43
Summary ........................................................................................................ 50
Definition of Community .................................................................................. 50
Planning and Exercises .......................................................................................51
Risk Assessments and Capabilities-Based Planning ......................................................51
Facilitators and Barriers to Local Disaster Preparedness .................................................51
CHAPTER FIVE
Local Emergency Preparedness Networks ................................................................53
Background on Social Network Analysis ....................................................................53
Theory and Traditional Uses ................................................................................53
Application of Network Analysis to Public Health .......................................................55
Emergency Management Networks and Preparedness ...................................................57
Social Network Measures ....................................................................................58
Survey Methods .................................................................................................61
Contents vii
Results and Analysis ........................................................................................... 64
Comparison of Networks Across Sites ......................................................................65
Key Characteristics of Each Network ......................................................................69
Summary of Findings...........................................................................................76
Most Influential Organizations .............................................................................76
Communications Flow, Coordination, and Innovation ..................................................76
Resiliency, Redundancy, and Single Points of Failure ................................................... 77
Implications for the RAND Planning Support Tool ...................................................... 77
CHAPTER SIX
Framework for a Local Planning Support Tool ..........................................................81
Perceived Needs: Desired Features of a New Planning Support Tool ....................................81
Functional Characteristics ...................................................................................81
Implementation Features .....................................................................................82
Desired Capabilities ..........................................................................................82
Existing Preparedness Support Tools and Resources .......................................................83
Risk Assessment .............................................................................................. 84
Planning....................................................................................................... 86
Resources Needed ............................................................................................ 87
Exercises ....................................................................................................... 87
Lessons Learned and Best Practices........................................................................ 87
Event Management .......................................................................................... 87
Tools Applicable to More Than One of the Phases ...................................................... 88
Opportunities to Bridge Gaps in Local Preparedness ..................................................... 88
Addressing Perceived Needs ................................................................................ 88
Approach to Developing the New Tool ................................................................... 90
Framework for the RAND Planning Support Tool ........................................................ 92
(1) Capabilities-Based Plan: Generation of Recommended Capabilities ...............................93
(2) Generation of Required Resources ......................................................................95
(3) Gap Analysis...............................................................................................95
(4) Community Network Analysis..........................................................................95
Initial Vetting of the Proposed Framework ................................................................. 96
Capabilities-Based Planning/Requirements Generation ................................................ 96
Burden of Use ................................................................................................ 96
Cooperative Planning Environment ....................................................................... 97
Community Network Assessment ......................................................................... 97
Gap-Analysis Function ...................................................................................... 97
Other Desired Functions.................................................................................... 97
Vetting Conclusions ......................................................................................... 98
Example of the Proposed Tool: Generation of Capabilities Needed and Resources Needed ......... 98
CHAPTER SEVEN
Summary and Next Steps .................................................................................. 103