DTIC ADA525823: Supporting US Foreign Policy in the Post-9/11 World

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by  Defense Technical Information Center

Policymakers and the Intelligence Community
Supporting US Foreign Policy in the
Post-9/11 World
Richard N. Haass
Policymakers(cid:146) lives are clomi(cid:151) director of the CIA(cid:151)insight-
nated by their (cid:147)in boxes(cid:148) and fully defines it, intelligence(cid:148) is
the crises of the moment; rarely (cid:145)knowledge and analysis
do they have time to contem designed to assist action.(cid:148)1
plate far into the future These Information and insights that do
are, of course, clichØs. But cli not assist action(cid:148) remain life
chØs become clichØ precisely less. Successful intelligence,
(cid:147) because they contain an dc therefore, requires a mutual
ment of truth. A~s a policymaker, understanding between policy-
Inteffigence information I confess that I often feel as makers and the Intelligence
though long term(cid:148) is later in Community that is all too often
and insights that do not the week. During the past year, lacking. Policymakers need to
(cid:145)assist action(cid:146) remain my staff has been deeply ensure that the Community is
lifeless. involved in the formulation of not working in a vacuum, that
our response to the attacks of analysts know what is on our
Septeniher 11th, the planning
minds and what questions we
for Afghanistan(cid:146)s post-conflict
need answered. At the same
future, the Middle East peace time, members of the Intelli
process, exploring new ways to gence Community have a
dc-escalate the India-Pakistan
responsibility to s~ek out poli
conflict over Kashmir, keeping cymakers, understand their
the Northern Ireland peace pro concerns, and tell them what
cess on track, revising our they should be paying atten
approach to the instabilities
tion to. It is important to tell
shaking Latin America from
policymakers what they need
Colombia to Argentina, and a
to hear, not what they want to
host of other issues.
hear.
But to be more than the accu
mulation of responses to In the past year, the Intelli
separate crises, a successful for gence Community has
undergone soul-searching from
eign policy depends upon
within and intense scrutiny from
bridging the intellectual gap
without. As happened in the
between the imperatives of the
late 1940s and the mid.1970s,
present and the potential of the
the Intelligence Community(cid:146)s
future. In turn, this often
depends upon bridging the gap mission and very structure are,
in the aftermath of September
between policymakers and the
Intelligence Community. After
Ambassador Richard N. Haass all, as Robert Bowie(cid:151)a prede
(cid:145)Quoted in Ernest ft. Ma)(cid:146), (cid:147)Introduction,(cid:148)
is the Director of the Policy cessor of mine as Director of Knowing One(cid:146)s Eneniiesr IntelligenceAs
Planning Staff, Department of the Policy Planning Staff who sessnientBefore the Tao World Wan(Prin
ceton, NJ: Princeton University Press,
State. later served as a deputy 1984), p 3
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Supporting US Foreign Policy in the Post-9/11 World
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Studies in Intelligence, Volume 46, No. 3, 2002
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Policymaker Perspective
As a poilcymaker, I
confess that!oftenfeelas
though (cid:145)long term(cid:146) is
11W, being reconsideiecl and defining our world at the dawn
later in the week.
reoriented. I do not intend, of the twenty(cid:151)first century.2
however, to attempt to identify While the specific lists may vary
the lessons(cid:148) of the past year in minor respects, I believe
and suggest new mechanisms there is a growing consensus
within the Intelligence Commu that five fundamental factors are
nity to cope with the demands The Five Fundamentals shaping the future of interna
of our long-term campaign tional relations: globalization,
against terrorism I will leave Formulating a strategy for the the fate of democratic gover
such matters for others. Instead, global campaign against terror nance, the changing nature of
I want to step hack from the isni and implementing it have security, the evolution of our
inevitably drawn the lion(cid:146)s
current debates about the future alliances and relations with
organization of the Intelligence share of policvmakers(cid:146) atten other major powers, and the
Community to consider hasic tion since September 11th. future of American power. Each
Likewise, the Intelligence Com
matters of intellectual outlook in its own way is highlighted in
and the practice of the intel1i(cid:151) munity has dramatically shifted the terrorist threat and our
gence craft that organizational resources to the fight against response to it. I want to discuss
restructuring alone will not terror As ii these demands were each in turn.
touch. not enough, at the same time,
pohicymakers and the Intelli
This article is one intelligence gence Community have Globalization
consumer(cid:146)s attempt to help confronted a variety of crises
bridge the gaps between the and conflicts spanning from the Globalization is a basic reality
present and the future on the Green Line to the Line of Con shaping the nature of interna
one hand, and policymakers trol, from Colombia to the tional relations at all levels. It
and the Intelligence Commu Caucasus. Our foreign policy, should he viewed broadly,
nity on the other. To begin, I though, should he based upon beyond merely economic
will sketch the main forces that an appreciation of the funda exchange. Globalization is the
this policymaker sees shaping mental dynamics shaping the totality and velocity of connec
international relations in what international environment(cid:151)and tions and interactions(cid:151)he they
Secretary of State Cohn Powell not just the events of the past economic, political, social, cul
has called the post-post-Cold twelve months, no matter how tural(cid:151)that are sometimes
\Var world.(cid:148) Then will outline significant they may be. With beyond the control or even
some important questions that out such understanding, our knowledge of governments and
will merit serious attention by foreign policy risks becoming other authorities. It is character
the Intelligence Community in merely tactical and temporary izech by the compression of
the years ahead. (I doubt any rather than strategic and distance and the increasing per
one will be surprised that once sustamable. meability of traditional
again a policymaker will offer boundaries to the rapid flow of
more questions than answers.) A major challenge as we face goods, services, people, infor
In conclusion, I will add pressing decisions of the clay, mation, and ideas. It is a
another voice to the calls for a therefore, is to identify the
cultural change in the Intelli deeper forces at work trans
2 NoiaNe examples include, N:ition:i] intel
gence Community, one that will forming our strategic landscape. ligence council. NEC 20013-02, Global
encourage its members to seek Thankfully, ~ve have insightful Trends20/5: A DialogueAbout be10,/tire
~zjj/,Abizgover?ItiteittalJ1~pei1s December
out rather than shun direct and analyses(cid:151)many produced 2000), and CIA, Dircctcr:ite ofIntelligence,
close engagement with policy- within the Intelligence Ccimmu(cid:151) OTI IA 2001-045. Loiig-Teriii C7hiha(Demo
(cid:231)(cid:146)raphic Tre,uh ReshepiugheGeopolitical
makers and their concerns. nity(cid:151)of the main forces Latdscape (.IuIy 200
2
PolicymakerPerspective
Our foreign policy
should be based
upon an
appreciation of
multifaceted, transnational dynamic (cid:147)creative destruction.(cid:148)
phenomenon. the fundamental Anyone who has invested in the
dynamics shaping the NASDAQ over the past few
Anyone reading The Education international years will undoubtedly agree.
of1-JeitryAdams(cid:151)let alone
environment(cid:151)and not
recent academic analyses of the Those nation(cid:151)states that are
late nineteenth century(cid:151)recog just the events ofthe past unable or unwilling to integrate
nizes that globalization is not a twelve months. themselves into the global sys
new phenomenon. Just con tem risk isolation and
skier multinational corporations, stagnation. North Korea is only
transnational religious move the most chilling example of a
ments, substantial international Behind Globaliiation regime that has intentionally cut
capita! flows, global pandem its people off from the world
The essential drivers behind this
ics, the emergence of global and forced them to suffer the
wave of globalization are eco
networks of commerce, and nomic, demographic. and horrendous consequences.
non-governmental organiza technological. Other governments are attempt
tions (NGOs) and private ing a more subtle and difficult
foundations working to better The global capitalist econonly balancing act, hoping to insu
the lives of working men and remains the most important late themselves from
women. All these elements of transnational force in the world globalization more selectively
globalization predated not just today. Global trade and investS through old-fashioned protec
the end of the Cold War, but the ment, the diffusion of corporate tionism, targeted restrictions on
best practices.(cid:148) the freeing of
World Wars as well. the flow of information, or simi
labor markets, and the efficien
lar policies.
Nonetheless, since the end of cies achieved by global
the Cold War, globalization has economies of scale are remak Disparities will increase
ing the world every day. The
unmistakably accelerated and between citizens living in the
benefits of the past decade(cid:146)s
extended its reach. Further expansion of open economies wealthiest countries that are the
more, although the nation(cid:151)state and societies are unmistakable, most integrated into the interna
remains the preeminent actor Market economies promote tional system and those living in
on the international stage, we growth that in turn sustains bet the poorest, least integrated
have also witnessed how glo ter education, health, social ones. Strains within nation-
balization has empowered a equality, and quality of life. At states will also he felt as the
variety of non-state actors rang the same time, the market econ effects of globalization spread
ing from individual omy acts as a disruptive force, differently across regions. Those
philanthropists and humanitar demanding institutional and who participate in the modern
intellectual innovation while
ian NGOs to lone coniputer world will have radically differ
unsettling the work patterns of
hackers and criminal cartels ent experiences, qualities of life,
everyday life. And it carries with
Indeed, globalization has and perspectives than those
it the risk of international eco
enabled the emergence of new nomic contagion as we saw in who do not or cannot. Ten
kinds of global and virtual net the late 1990s and, again, this sions between the two groups
works that, in turn, have past year in Latin Anierica. of people are inevitable(cid:151)but
accelerated further the pace of Economist Joseph Schumpeter how these tensions play out is
globalization was right to label capitalism(cid:146)s not.
3
Policymaker Perspective
Disenchanted and
disenfranchised youth
risk joining the ranks of
Demographic Factors The burden of infectious dis
terrorists, criminal
eases can strain weak health
The most basic facts of life and organizations, and other
systems to the breaking point
death continue to matter to groups that threaten to and beyond, with pernicious
international relations. Almost
rend the fabric of effects on social, economic, and
all of the population increase in
societies. political stability of regions
coming years(cid:151)on the order of
important to America(cid:146)s inter
95 percent(cid:151)will take place in
ests. The hardest-hit nations in
the developing world. The pros
pects for better jobs tied to the Suh-Saharan Africa are experi
encing precipitous declines in
glohalized economy will con
tinue to draw people from rural within countries and between olivfeerex3p0ecyteaanrsc.ieMsi,llsioonmseoffalling
areas; therefore, the develop them. orphans will need to he raised
ing world(cid:146)s citizenry will
by the poorest societies on
concentrate more and more in As people move, so do earth; many, forced to fend for
urban areas. Soon, for the first microbes. HIV/AIDS. themselves or exploited by oth
time in human history, the
majority of the world(cid:146)s popula tuberculosis, and malaria ers, will pose a clear source of
together cause 25 percent of all instability in affected areas. The
tsitornaiwniilnlg lsitvaeteininufrrbasatnruacrteuarse,s deaths worldwide. With an esti spread of HIV/AIDS and other
mated 40 million people already infectious diseases, therefore,
and services sometimes to the
bdmerygenaaackmiiitncigsespaolliirnktee.adLWyaegaotss,weoeKratkrhaecisnhei, itlhnorfneegacettredpt,ohsetoehrdeetnbiayctailHoIno\arTl/pAsrIeocDusSrpiietscyno ~biveuislt,l tdnheorvteaasottnealntyetpoeocdsoeensotamroihyeeassl,otchainreidtsk,
destabilize entire regions.3
and Jakarta and countless other tive; it is clear and present
cities around the globe. Further today. It is, moreover, rapidly
more, (cid:147)youth bulges(cid:148) will often expanding its deadly reach Technological Breakthroughs
result in widespread unemploy beyond Sub-Saharan Africa. In
rnent that simultaneously the last 5 years, for instance, the The revolution in information
increases instability within the MW/AIDS infection rates in and communications technolo
developing world and the pool Eastern Europe increased 1300 gies has helped integrate the
of migrants eager to escape it. percent. Even relatively low world and its economies as
The disenchanted and disen rates of infection will have never before. While helping
franchised members of these accelerate the economic dyna
enormous consequences for
youth cohorts risk joining the mism of the past decade, these
high population countries such
ranks of terrorists, criminal same technologies facilitate the
as China and India. HIV/AIDS is
organizations, and other groups coordination of transnational
particularly devastating because
that threaten to rend the fabric criminal and terrorist networks.
it often combines with other
of societies around the world. Other technologies also have
infectious diseases(cid:151)notably
At the same time, the devel their own bright and dark sides.
oped world(cid:151)especially Western tuberculosis(cid:151)in lethal alli Developments in
Europe and Japan(cid:151)will ances. To make matters worse,
become grayer with each pass drug-resistant strains of tubercu
ing year as its population(cid:146)s losis are becoming more 31JEoVi/ntAIuDnSitaenddNWaotriolndsHPeralotghraOrmgmaeniozantion,
average age creeps upward. prevalent. Such strains can AIDSEp,denisc Updatc~ December2001
Issues of immigration and defeat the most sophisticated (Geneva. UNAID5, 2001); UNICEF, UN
AIDS, and WHO, Coordinates2002 Chafl
national identity promise, there antibiotics in modern medi ingProgressAgai;zstAIDS, lBandMa!aria
fore, to strain fault lines both cine(cid:146)s arsenal. (Geneva World Health Organization,
2002)
4
PolicymakerPerspective
International terrorism
exemplifies the dark side
ofglobalization.
biotechnology, for instance, exchanges around the world(cid:151)
hold promise for medical and some legitimate and unwitting,
agricultural breakthroughs that others not. And in their hands
will improve all our lives. How the cars and airplanes that con
ever, the same trends allow new the benefits and conveniences nect families and businesses
actors to inflict unprecedented of our increasingly open, inte become human guidecl missiles
disruption and destruction. At a grated, giobalized world to
time of anthrax attacks and ter serve their destructive agenda. Globalization(cid:151)including its
rorist threats to use nuclear, darker potential(cid:151)is a fact, not a
biological, chemical, and radio The al-Qaida threat does not policy option for the United
logical weapons, the specter of reside in any one state. Instead, States or anyone else. How we
weapons of mass destruction Usama bin Laden is (or was) a respond to it, though, is a mat
has perhaps never been more man without a country(cid:151)his al ter of policy. Choices made will
ominous. Qaida network is a multina help determine whether people
tional enterprise with franchises
profit or find poverty, whether
in 50 or more countries. Its glo cleavages within and between
The Dark Side ofGlobalization bal activities are coordinated by societies will be ameliorated or
Before September 11th, citizens not on(cid:146)y personal couriers but exacerbated, and whether new
also the communication tech
vofietwheglUonbiatleidzaSttiaotnesfotretnhdeedmotsot naogleo(cid:151)cgeilelsuleamrbleamnadtisacteollfitoeurtele ompipsosretdu.niTthieesfuwtiulrlehoefsienitzeerdnaor
part as a positive phenomenon. phones, encrypted e-mail, tional relations will he shaped
Every year more people than internet chat rooms, video to a large extent by how the
ever before benefited from tapes, and laser disks. Like a bright and dark sides of global
speedy long-distance travel, skilled publicist, bin Laden has ization interact and how nations
e-mail, cellular telephones, exploited the international and peoples respond.
faxes, household satellite media to project his image
dishes, and the unprecedented worldwide. Members of al
Democracy(cid:146)s Future
flow of trade, investment, and Qaida have traveled from conti
information. But globalization nent to continent with the ease In addition to globalization, tile
always did have(cid:151)and will con of a vacationer or business trav democratic wave that swept the
tinue to have(cid:151)a dark side. The eler. In an age marked by world over the past thirty years
same networks that allow the unprecedented mobility and is the second major factor shap
free flow of commerce and imniigration. tile)(cid:146) readily blend ing today(cid:146)s international
communication can also carry into communities wherever they environment. The twentieth
from one continent to another move. They pay their way with century ended with the most
drugs; refugees and illegal funds raised through front busi democracies in history(cid:151)119 of
immigrants; diseases like nesses, drug trafficking, credit 192 ~ The spread of
HIV/AIDS; financial volatility card fraud, extortion, money democratic institutions in turn
and contagion; traffic in men, laundered from coven support has promoted fundamental
women, and children; and, as ers, and possibly even the democratic values such as
we now know all too well. manipulation of stock markets freedom of the press and
terrorists. They use ostensibly charitable expression, the rule of law and
organizations for funding and
Indeed, international terrorism recruitment. Money for their
exemplifies this dark side of operations is transferred FreedomHouse. Democrc,ci(cid:146) sCe,,Iuri(cid:146) A
globalization as af-Qaida and its surreptitiously through numer Soon ofdclxiiPoiUwc,i6(cid:146)ha~igc(cid:146) I,, (IN!
2~y~ Ceo/un(cid:146) (Ne~~(cid:146) York, Ni- Freedom
cousin terrorist networks twist ous banks and money House. 1999).
5
Policymaker Perspective
(cid:147)
The threat posed by bin
Laden and his ilk is
fundamentally different
equality before the law, respect the boundaries between for
from that posed by Stalin
for private property rights, and eign(cid:148) and domestic(cid:148) are
and his.
a dynamic civil society. Experi increasingly blurred. The lines
ence proves that individual between intelligence, law
liberty, free markets, good gov enforcement, and military oper
ernance, and international ations also promise to be less
peace are interconnected and clear than in the past. The
mutually reinforcing. implications of these changes
attacks of September 11th and are testing the security struc
In many places, however, our ongoing campaign against tures(cid:151)both domestic and
democracy has not yet grown terrorism highlight this reality. international(cid:151)inherited from
deep roots. It remains vulnera Our adversaries will not only he the past century. One of the
ble to disappointment and nation(cid:151)states, but, as exempli greatest challenges ahead,
backlash if it does not steadily fied by the al-Qaida network, therefore, will he to devise and
provide tangible material gains. increasingly potent and anibi construct a security architecture
Too often, we have seen that tious non-state actors as well. appropriate for this age(cid:146)s Iran(cid:151)
the precedent of one fair elec They are also quick studies; snational threats.
tion can be easily overcome in they have undoubtedly learned
countries lacking a robust dem from our operations in Afghani
ocratic political culture and civil stan that the United States Relations with the Major
has both the will and the Powers
society. Tyranny, corruption,
unmatched military where
and intolerance, in turn, impov This last obsen(cid:146)ation leads natu
erish peoples, corrode civil withal to destroy any con
society, and undermine the ventional military threat to our rally to the fourth factor shaping
the international environment,
foundations for international security. But this overall con
namely the future development
ventional dominance will
stability
stimulate potential adversaries of our alliances and relations
Furthermore, the very presence ctaolddeovcetlroipnesso(cid:151)caanldledcapaabsiylniutiiieestri(cid:151) (cid:145)vOiuthr ctohreeoatlhleiranmcaesjowrilplohweercsr.iti
ovbpofayllidusteeiomscmoalcecraoanertsdthieaecrbsl.siinesDsetheniemtdauostscioroacnaistachlayrenaawdntidll tUsaiSivleionrdetademrtavoegnedteitooennrotorhreinnheflouimtcretaflmrioaznest. cttahhleeytaofhtaoevurremafbtuehteuonrfeitsnhuetchcSeeesppsatsjteu.mstbIenars
continue to he opposed and Ainsgptahret tohfretahitss tproesnde,dcboyunctyeherr t1h1ethreatwtaarcdkss,owfethheavineversetampeendts
besieged by those that it threat
eitnnhste.olTe\arVlaeinbts,aanowpinpthrAiefssgschilaevnaeirlsrytualinen oatfnhed apmtoatssasscikbsdleeasntudrsuectthoeifopnwreowlaiilplfoebrnaestciooonfmaend moNvAaeTdrOe(cid:146)sthineuopnuapsrrtem5ca0eldoyerenaatrlsel.diaWniicntevnseoscsa
increasingly important. These tion of Article V of the NATO
its alliance of aggression with
are threats of today, not some Treaty, Australia(cid:146)s invocation of
the al(cid:151)Qaida network
distant future: We have already Article IV of the ANZUS Treaty.
suffered attacks with anthrax and how 1)0th have matched
Recasting Security and foiled at least one (cid:145)dirty words with deeds. Europeans
hoiiib(cid:148) plot. and Australians have shed their
The changing nature of secu blood alongside us during the
ritv and ho(cid:146)~(cid:146) ~ve achieve it is As new, expansive notions of Afghanistan campaign. There is
the third basic factor defining (cid:145)homeland security(cid:148) attest. also Japan(cid:146)s historic support for
the international context for our traditional conceptions of secu the campaign against terrorism.
foreign policy. The terrorist rity are being reconsidered and And consider our Western
6
PolicymakerPerspective
The United States will
remain into the
foreseeable future the
Hemispheric neighbors(cid:146) invoca trajectory more than any other
world(cid:146)s preeminent
tion of the Rio Treaty ailci their country. The decisions we make
commitment to combat terror power accordingto every or fail to make, what we do or
ism in our backyard embodied metric(cid:151)military, do riot do, and what we say or
in the Organization of Ameri economic, political, and do not say, will have wide(cid:151)
can States(cid:146) new Inter-American culturaL spread repercussions. This is a
Convention Against Terrorism, fact, not a boast. We must strive
adopted inJune 2002. for suitably ~vell(cid:151)informecl anci
well-reasoned decisions to
But these alliances cannot he match our power.
taken for granted. The dial broke clown, it gave us two
lenges of this new(cid:146) era are not world wars. When it held, it
those of the Cold War; the gave us a cold war. The true A More Integrated World
threat posed by bin Laden and peace dividend(cid:148) of this era is
Considering these five funda
his ilk is fundamentally differ our ability to turn our efforts
ent from that posed by Stalin from containment and confron nientals together, we see that
American foreign policy is at
and his. Our core alliances, tation to cooperation. Ensuring
therefore, must evolve to meet that this historic development an historic turning point. As
exemplified by the threat of
tile demands of this new era or becomes a lasting feature of our
inter(cid:151)national terrorism, in the
they risk failing into irrelevance. world will be a major chal
post-9/1I world transnational
lenge facing American
At the same time, as we have policymakers. challenges will lie on a par
seen dramatically since tile hor with(cid:151)and sometimes even
rific events of September 11th, more important than(cid:151)tradi
we now have the opportunity American Preeminence tional security considerations.
to recast our relationships with
many nations, including Russia, The fifth, and final, funclamen(cid:151) American foreign policy is
China, and India. The coopera tal factor shaping our world will being reoriented to cope with
tion forged in the war against he what tile United States does the complexities of this era
terrorism highlights how our with its power. The United defined by the intersection of
future relations with these three States will remain into the fore traditional and trausnational
major powers do not need to seeable future the world(cid:146)s security concerns. The best way
he shackled by the memories of preeminent power according to to describe this new approach
past animosities or prickly rela every metric(cid:151)military, eco is as a process of integration
tions. Indeed, it is not too much nomic, political, and cultural. in which the United States seeks
to say that we have never had The recent spate of terrorist to include other countries, orga(cid:151)
better relations with all three attacks against the United States nizations, and peoples into
countries at the same time. has not altered thts basic fact. If arrangements that will sustain a
anything. they have under world consistent with interests
Today we do not see a serious scored it. The United States has and values enibracecl by the
danger of a war between any been targeted for such heinous United States and many other
of the great powers. We should acts because of its preemi governments and peoples,
never forget what a remarkable nence and all that it symbolizes thereby promoting peace, pros
change this is. The twentieth and means to the world. perity, and justice as widely as
century was defined by strug possible. integration of new
gles of power politics among The United States will thus con partners into our efforts will
the world(cid:146)s niajor nations. tinue to affect the shape of help us with the traditional
When the balance of power international relations and their challenges of maintaining peace
7
Policymaker Perspective
We see the process of
integration unfolding in
the war against
in divided regions as well as terrorism, where we have answered in the years
with transnational threats such ahead.
establishing
as international terrorism, the are new
proliferation of weapons of norms forcooperation in We should start with our neigh
mass destruction, and the the fight against a borhood, the Western
spread of infectious disease. It common foe. Hemisphere. \Vith our two
will also help us seize the most important trading partners
opportunities of this era, includ lying to our north and south,
ing bringing into the globalized the Western Hemispheres
world those who have previ importance to our economic
ously been left out. well-being is obvious. But our
begun weaving a new interna regional neighborhood(cid:146)s impor
We are doing this by persuad tional fabric that will help tance can be captured another
ing more and more govern protect us from the worst ele way: imagine for a moment the
ments and(cid:151)on a broader ments of this era. impact on the United States and
level(cid:151)people to sign on to cer on US foreign policy if we con
tain key ideas as to how the fronted a hemisphere that was a
world should operate for From Global to Local cauldron of instability. Just
mutual benefit. Integration is remember how demanding the
about bringing nations together While it is imperative to have task of coping with instability in
and then building frameworks an overarching policy frame one small Caribbean country(cid:151)
work that comprehends the
for cooperation and, where fea Haiti(cid:151)has been over the past
sible, institutions that reinforce fundamental factors shaping our dlecadle. The health of our hemi
world, in practice, foreign pol
and sustain such frameworks. sphere is therefore hoth
icy typically is local. In other essential to our domestic well
We see this process of integra words, foreign policy is not being and a prerequisite for
tion unfolding in the war designed to deal with different action abroad.
against terrorism, where we are forces separately or on a global
scale, hut rather with how they
establishing both new norms Here we have seen the prom
and new frameworks for coop come together and interact to ise of economic integration in
eration in the fight against a create concrete problems or NAFTA. along with the remark
common foe. With American opportunities in specific regions able success of democracy as
leadership, for instance, the and countries. demonstrated by the recent
United Nations Security Coun elections in Mexico, Peru, and
cil unanimously adopted We see this in our global cam Nicaragua. But we are also wit
Resolution 1373 requiring all paign against terrorism, where nessing in the northern Andes,
UN members to freeze terrorist the campaign really comprises a as well as in parts of Central
financing, iniprove border secu series of coordinated hut none America and the Caribbean,
rity, clamp down on the theless distinct operations how the dark side of globaliza
recruitment of terrorists, share taking place simultaneously on tion can threaten democratic
information, and deny terrorists many fronts(cid:151)diplomatic, eco nile, increase uncontrolled
any support or safe haven. nomic, intelligence, law immigration, and multiply the
Meanwhile, \~re have expanded enforcement, and military. spread of illegal drugs and ter
our cooperation with countries rorist-criminal syndicates.
and organizations around the Accordingly, t would like to Argentina(cid:146)s and Brazil(cid:146)s eco
world to make sure that these suggest briefly, moving region nomic woes might spread
obligations are met. While by region, what basic questions economic contagion and,
much work remains, we have US policymakers will need to equally important, undermine
8
PolicymakerPerspective
faith in economic openness(cid:151) inward, as the Dutch did after China and India count among
the so-called Washington con the seventeenth century? Or will their citizens one out of every
sensus(cid:151)as the best route to we he able to adapt existing three people on the face of the
prosperity and freedom. Confi institutions like NATO and forge earth. They will, therefore, inev
dence in basic institutions new partnerships designed to itably have much to say abotit
seems to be faltering in the look outward, and thereby face the future of humanity. China
midst of the current economic together both the transnational and India face similar chal
slowdown throughout the challenges and opportunities of lenges. Both are vast multi
region. What will come of an this era and such traditional ethnic countries conscious of
increasingly divided Venezuela? security challenges as working their own rich history; both are
Will Colombia he the excep to bring peace and stability to searching for international sta
tion or the trendsetter for the the Middle East and the Korean tus commensurate with their
region? Wither Argentina and Peninsula? size. They are rising powers,
the commitment to the (cid:147)Wash who have experienced remark
ington consensus?(cid:148) What will it Russia has weathered the able economic growth as they
take for us to complete negotia recent global economic slow have opened their economies.
tion of the Free Trade Area of down better than most and it In both cases, the war against
the Americas agreement and now has a measure of domes terrorism has offered new forms
solidify market economies from tic stability. However, the of cooperation with the United
Chile to Canada? And what new economic, political, social, States and the international
security architecture will be demographic, and environmen community. At the same time,
needed to help preserve the tal legacies of seventy years of their development has been
peace in this hemisphere? communist rule risk shackling uneven, with some regions fall
Russia to its past well into the ing significantly behind those
Looking to our traditional allies twenty-first century. Since Sep better integrated into the global(cid:151)
in Europe andJapan, we see a tember 11th, we have made ized economic order. And both
different set of challenges. On a great strides in redefining our populations(cid:146) shear size will con
daily basis we see evidence of relationship, as evidenced by tinue to strain their environment
both Europe andJapan acting our cooperation in the war as well as the capacities of state
more assertively in the interna against terrorism, Russia(cid:146)s will institutions. How will India and
tional arena. On the other hand, ingness to countenance a US China manage their future
both face significant institu military presence in the Cauca development internally and
tional challenges that could sus and Central Asia, the Treaty internationally? Will they inte
preoccupy them(cid:151)Europe in its of Moscow, and the creation of grate themselves more fully into
deepening and expanding the the NATO-Russia Council in the globalized international sys
European Union, and Japan in May 2002. But can we capital tem and expand cooperation
its need for basic political and ize on this momentum and with others to confront this era(cid:146)s
economic reform. Europe and make it self-sustaining? Will distinctive transnational
Japan also have to confront the Russia be able to integrate itself challenges?
aging of their populations with successfully into the interna
its wide-ranging implications. tional order(cid:151)for instance, by In answering this question, one
How will the interaction of joining the World Trade Organi must also take into account the
these forces affect our alliance zation(cid:151)and thereby funda basic differences in China(cid:146)s and
relations with Europe and mentally alter the trajectory of India(cid:146)s situations, both internal
Japan, and their ability to act on its development? Will Russia(cid:146)s and international. India is an
the world stage? Will they demographic, economic, and established, vibrant, multi-party
become content in their pros geopolitical decline be reversed democracy whose openness
perity and look increasingly or is it systemic? promises to smooth its
9