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Preview DTIC ADA522808: The Growing Prospects for Maritime Security Cooperation in Southeast Asia

THE GROWING PROSPECTS FOR MARITIME SECURITY COOPERATION IN SOUTHEAST ASIA Lieutenant John F.Bradford,U.S.Navy T heseadominatesSoutheastAsia,coveringroughly80percentofitsarea.The region’s islands and peninsulas, wedged between the Pacific and Indian oceans,bordermajorarteriesofcommunicationandcommerce.Thustheeco- nomicandpoliticalaffairsofSoutheastAsiahavebeendominatedbythesea.In thepremodernperiod,portssuchasSvirijayaandMalaccaestablishedempires baseduponseapowerinareawaters.InsucceedingcenturiesEuropeanwarships andtheirheavygunswerethekeystocolonization.Todaymorethanhalfofthe world’s annual merchant tonnage traverses Southeast Asian waters; its oceans andseasyieldvastrevenuesinsuchindustriesasfishing,hydrocarbonextrac- tion,andtourism.Infact,morethan60percentofSoutheastAsianstodaylivein orrelyeconomicallyonthemaritimezones.However,theseaisalsothesource ofavarietyofdangersthatnotonlymenacetheprosperityoflocalpopulations butdirectlythreatenthesecurityofstates.Thosedangersincludeterritorialdis- LieutenantBradford,aSurfaceWarfareOfficer,wasin putes, nonstate political violence, transnational 2003–2004anOlmstedScholarattheInstituteforDe- crime,andenvironmentaldegradation.Maritimese- fense and Strategic Studies, Nanyang Technological curity, accordingly, is at the forefront of Southeast University, Singapore, earning an MSc in strategic studies.Hisnavalservicehasincludedassignmentsas Asianpoliticalconcerns. navigatorofthedocklandingshipUSSFortMcHenry Successful response to maritime security threats (LSD43),forwarddeployedtoSasebo,Japan;firstlieu- requires international cooperation, because those tenant of the guided-missile destroyer USS John S. McCain(DDG56),basedinYokosuka;AssistantPlans threats are primarily transnational. As Singapore’s Officer,CommanderNavalForcesJapan;andSouth- deputyprimeministerhaseloquentlyexplained,“in- eastAsiaPolitico-MilitaryOfficerontheNavyStaff.He dividual state action is not enough. The oceans are iscurrentlytrainingtoassumedutiesasthechiefengi- neer of the guided-missile destroyer USS Stethem indivisible and maritime security threats do not re- (DDG 63). spect boundaries.”1 Southeast Asian cooperation is currentlyinadequateintermsofthemaritimethreat; Naval War College Review, Summer 2005, Vol. 58, No. 3 Report Documentation Page Form Approved OMB No. 0704-0188 Public reporting burden for the collection of information is estimated to average 1 hour per response, including the time for reviewing instructions, searching existing data sources, gathering and maintaining the data needed, and completing and reviewing the collection of information. Send comments regarding this burden estimate or any other aspect of this collection of information, including suggestions for reducing this burden, to Washington Headquarters Services, Directorate for Information Operations and Reports, 1215 Jefferson Davis Highway, Suite 1204, Arlington VA 22202-4302. Respondents should be aware that notwithstanding any other provision of law, no person shall be subject to a penalty for failing to comply with a collection of information if it does not display a currently valid OMB control number. 1. REPORT DATE 3. DATES COVERED 2005 2. REPORT TYPE 00-00-2005 to 00-00-2005 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE 5a. CONTRACT NUMBER The Growing Prospects for Maritime Security Cooperation in Southeast 5b. GRANT NUMBER Asia 5c. PROGRAM ELEMENT NUMBER 6. AUTHOR(S) 5d. PROJECT NUMBER 5e. TASK NUMBER 5f. WORK UNIT NUMBER 7. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES) 8. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION Naval War College,686 Cushing Road,Newport,RI,02841-1207 REPORT NUMBER 9. SPONSORING/MONITORING AGENCY NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES) 10. SPONSOR/MONITOR’S ACRONYM(S) 11. SPONSOR/MONITOR’S REPORT NUMBER(S) 12. DISTRIBUTION/AVAILABILITY STATEMENT Approved for public release; distribution unlimited 13. SUPPLEMENTARY NOTES 14. ABSTRACT 15. SUBJECT TERMS 16. SECURITY CLASSIFICATION OF: 17. LIMITATION OF 18. NUMBER 19a. NAME OF ABSTRACT OF PAGES RESPONSIBLE PERSON a. REPORT b. ABSTRACT c. THIS PAGE Same as 24 unclassified unclassified unclassified Report (SAR) Standard Form 298 (Rev. 8-98) Prescribed by ANSI Std Z39-18 64 NAVALWARCOLLEGEREVIEW however,structural,economic,andnormativefactorsareleadingtogreaterco- operation.Inthelastfouryearstherehavebeennotablestepsforward,andthe factorsresponsibleforthemshouldsoonproducegreatercooperation. ThisarticlediscussesthethreatstomaritimesecurityinSoutheastAsia,de- scribesthefactorstendingtowardstrengthenedmaritimesecuritycooperation, and argues that networks of bilateral relationships may be more fruitful than purelymultilateralarrangements.Thefirstsection,ahistoricaloverviewofmar- itimecooperationinSoutheastAsiafromtheendoftheColdWarthroughDe- cember2004,isfollowedbyasurveyofcontemporarymaritimesecuritythreats. Thearticlethendiscussesfivesignificantfactorsthatnowfavorimprovedmari- timecooperation.Itconcludeswiththevariousformsthatfuturecooperation mighttakeandspeculationastowhicharemostlylikelyinlightofevolvingstate interestsandconstraints. Itisnecessaryfirsttolimitthescopeofanalysis.Warfareisunlikelytobreak outamongmembersof theAssociationof SoutheastAsianNations(ASEAN). Accordingly,thefocushereisoncooperationtocounterextraregionalandtrans- national threats,rather than to prevent interstate conflict.In that context,the concernisnotsimplycooperationbutoperationalizedsecuritycooperation.Co- operation,in its broad sense,occurs when states,in order to realize their own goals,modifypoliciestomeetpreferencesofotherstates.“Operationalized”se- curitycooperationisaspecifictypeanddegreeofcooperationinwhichpolicies addressingcommonthreatscanbecarriedoutbymidlevelofficialsofthestates involvedwithoutimmediateordirectsupervisionfromstrategic-levelauthori- ties.Consultationandinformationsharingbetweensecurityministriesareex- amplesof“cooperation,”whereasthedataassessmentandintelligencebriefing by combined teams of analysts would involve operationalized cooperation.In themaritimeenvironment,internationalstaffconsultationsexemplifycoopera- tion.Ahighlyorchestratedandcloselysupervisedcombinedsearch-and-rescue exercisewouldbeconsideredverythinlyoperationalizedatbest.Complexnaval exercisesandregularlyscheduledcombinedlawenforcementpatrolsaremore substantialexamplesofoperationalizedcooperation. MARITIME SECURITY COOPERATION IN SOUTHEAST ASIA SINCE THE COLD WAR In 1991,Southeast Asia was regarded as a relatively stable region in which the maturityofASEANhadmadesignificantcontributionstomanagementofdis- putesbetweenmemberstates.DuringtheColdWar,theregionhadbeenpolar- izedbetweenthecommunistandfreemarketstates,butthecollapseof Soviet supportrelaxedtensionandproducedageneralreconciliationbetweenthetwo camps. The addition of Laos and Vietnam in 1992, and of Cambodia and BRADFORD 65 Myanmar in 1995, to the Treaty of Amity and Cooperation—originally con- cludedin1976forthepeacefulsettlementofintraregionaldisputesinaframe- work of absolute respect for state sovereignty—cemented the inclusion of the formercommunist-blocstatesintotheASEANcommunity.Similarly,by1991the region’sfewremainingcommunist-inspiredinsurgencieshadbeenlocalized,and almost all ofits states had earned unquestioned international legitimacy.2 Taiwan China Tropic of Cancer Hong Kong Burma Hanoi Luzon 20° Laos TGounlfk oinf Hainan South Strait Vientiane Rangoon (Yangon) Thailand PIsalarancdesl Philippine Sea Vietnam Manila Coco Islands Bangkok Coco Channel China Andaman Islands Cambodia Philippines Pacific Andaman Gulf of PPhennohm Ho Chi Minh City SIsplarantdlys Palawan 10° Sea Thailand Nicobar Sea Islands Sulu Sea Ipil Six Degree Channel Banda Aceh AcehPenang Brunei Sabah ArchSuipluelago Ocean Malaysia Kuala Lumpur Singapore Sarawak Celebes Sea Malacca Strait Sipadan, Litagan Is. Singapore Maluku Strait of Malacca Borneo Molucca Archipelago 0° Sea Sumatra MaSktraasistar Celebes Palembang Indian Java Sea Banda Sea Ocean JakartaJava Indonesia Flores Sea Bali Timor 10° Timor Sea 100° 110° 120° 130° Australia Therevolutionarystructuralchangesthataccompaniedtheendof theCold War complemented regional dynamics already in motion—improvements in domesticsecurity,rapideconomicdevelopment,andthematuringof regional identity—toproduceanenvironmentconducivetoincreasedcooperationand the reorganization of security priorities in Southeast Asia. Analysts quickly identified maritime security as a major concern.3 Many studies focused on state-to-statenavalconflict,butsomelookedbeyond“traditional”threatstoex- amineadiverserangeof broader,“nontraditional”maritimeconcerns,suchas ocean resource management, changes in patterns of commercial shipping, 66 NAVALWARCOLLEGEREVIEW transnationalcrime,andenvironmentalpollution.4Evenasthesestudieswere goingon,regionalstateslaunchedcooperativeeffortstoaddressmaritimesecu- rityissues. The enhanced maritime security cooperation developed during the decade immediatelyfollowingtheColdWarhasbeencalled“particularlynoteworthy” and“notable.”5In1992,ASEAN’sfirstcommuniquéonasecurityissue,“Decla- rationontheSouthChinaSea,”emphasized“thenecessitytoresolveallsover- eignty and jurisdictional issues pertaining to the South China Sea by peaceful means”and urged “all parties concerned to exercise restraint with the view to creating a positive climate for the eventual resolution of all disputes.” In the sameperiod,ahandfulof newinstitutionsemerged.Forexample,theIndone- sian South China Sea Though transnational maritime crime rarely presents Workshops (known as a direct threat to states, piracy and robbery at sea are the SCS Workshops) such severe problems that they are now perceived to sought to reduce the do just that. likelihood of interstate conflict in the South ChinaSea,whiletheCouncilforSecurityCooperationintheAsiaPacificMari- time Cooperation Working Group (CSCAP-MCWG),the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) Working Group on Maritime Security, and the Western Pacific Naval Symposium (WPNS) tackled Southeast Asian issues within the broaderAsia-Pacificmaritimecontext.6However,progressatthispointwasalmost entirely limited to transparency, dialogue, pledges of greater future cooperation, andothermaritimeconfidence-andsecurity-buildingmeasures(MCSBMs).7 Bytheendofthetwentiethcentury,cooperationwasnotyetsufficientlyori- entedtotheregion’snewnontraditionalsecuritythreats,andthefewexamples of operationalized cooperation were very weak.Several Cold War–era defense arrangements,suchastheFivePowerDefenseArrangements(FPDA)andvarious bilateralU.S.securityagreements,wereadaptedtonewfunctions.However,the usefulnessoftheFPDAwasquestioned,andtheAmericanpresenceinSoutheast AsiahaddecreasedwiththewithdrawalofmilitaryforcesfromthePhilippines in1991andlimitationsplacedbyCongressonmilitary-to-militarycontactswith Indonesia beginning in 1993.8 There were new operationalized cooperation endeavors; such pairings as Indonesia-Malaysia, Malaysia-Cambodia, Brunei- Australia, Singapore-India, and Malaysia-Philippines initiated bilateral naval- exerciseprograms.Of thesenewbilateralagreements,theMalaysia-Singapore, Singapore-Indonesia,andMalaysia-IndonesiacoordinatedpatrolsintheStrait ofMalaccawerethemostoperationalized.However,shipboardofficersprivately lamented that bilateral coordination of these patrols amounted to little more thanexchangesofschedules,towhichinmanycasespartnersdidnotadhere.9 BRADFORD 67 From2000to2002,aseriesofeventspropelledtheSoutheastAsianmaritime sectorfromthepost–ColdWaryearsintothenewworldofthetwenty-firstcen- tury.ThefirstwastheFebruary2000bombingofthePhilippineferryOurLady Mediatrix,whichkilledfortypeopleandwoundedanotherfifty.Theattackwas blamedontheMoroIslamicLiberationFront;however,beingregardedasjustan- otherstatisticoftheongoingviolenceinthesouthernPhilippines,ithadlesspsy- chological impact than the next transformative event, the October 2000 suicide-boat attack on the guided-missile destroyer USS Cole (DDG 67). Al- thoughtheattackonColeoccurredinAden,outsideSoutheastAsia,thepublic- itygeneratedandthefactthatthispowerfulattackhadsucceededagainstoneof the U.S.Navy’s most sophisticated warships raised awareness about the mari- timeterrorthreatinSoutheastAsiaandstartedsecurityexpertstherethinking aboutthedangersintheirownregion.Third,arashofamphibiouskidnapping operations carried out by the Abu Sayyaff Group—especially high-profile kidnappings of Western tourists from resorts on Sipadan,Malaysia,in March 2000andinPalawan,Philippines,inMay2001—demonstratedthecapabilities ofSoutheastAsia’sindigenoustransnationalmaritimeterrorists. The possibility of truly unbearable terrorist attacks was driven home for SoutheastAsianson11September2001.Afewmonthslater,Singaporeanintel- ligence discovered a series of al-Qa‘ida-related plots to attack several interna- tionaltargets,includingvisitingAmericanwarships,inthatislandstate.These findingswerecorroboratedbythediscoveryofplanningvideosanddocuments inAfghanistan.InDecember2001theferryKalifornia,transportingChristians inIndonesia’sMalukuArchipelago,wasbombed.Theattackkilledten,injured forty-six,andbeganacycleofviolenceinwhichseveralotherpassengervessels wereattacked.10 Maritime Southeast Asia completed its initiation into the “age of terror”in October 2002.On the 6th,Islamist terrorists struck the tanker Limburg in the Arabian Sea, demonstrating that international maritime trade was a target. Finally,the12OctobertriplebombinginBaliprovedthatSoutheastAsiawason thefrontlinesofinternationalterrorism.Today,whilesomeSoutheastAsiaoffi- cialsandcaptainsofindustryremain“indenial,”terrorismhasbecomethepre- eminentsecurityissueintheregion,andmaritimeterrorisbroadlyrecognized asaverydangerousthreat. Accordingly,maritimesecuritycooperationinSoutheastAsiaisnowdevelop- ingmorequicklythanintheprecedingdecade.Stateshavedemonstratedgreater commitmenttoexpandingMCSBMsandoperationalizingcooperation.Appro- priately,thebulkofthenewcooperationhasbeenorientedtowardsuchtrans- nationalthreatsasterrorismandpiracy.Althoughconsiderableobstaclesremain andstateshavenotbeenequallyproactive,commitmentshavebeenreinvigorated 68 NAVALWARCOLLEGEREVIEW andseveralnewarrangementscreated.Clearstatementsofrenewedinterestin improvingcooperationincludetheJune2003“ASEANRegionalForum[ARF] StatementonCooperationagainstPiracyandOtherThreatstoMaritimeSe- curity”andthe“WorkProgrammetoImplementtheASEANPlanofActionto Combat Transnational Crime,” which was endorsed by the January 2004 ASEAN Ministerial Meeting on Transnational Crime.More concretely,most regionalshippersandnearlyallmajorportfacilitiesachievedcompliancewith theInternationalMaritimeOrganization’sDecember2002InternationalShip and Port Facility Security Code (ISPS Code) before or shortly after its July 2004 deadline.Also in 2004,Singapore acceded to the Rome Convention for the Suppression of Unlawful Acts against the Safety of Maritime Navigation (known as the SUA Convention). Singapore’s accession was considered by many analysts as an important step toward wider regional acceptance of the SUAConvention. Examplesofnewoperationalizedinterstatecooperationbegantoemergeal- mostimmediatelyafter9/11,whentheUnitedStatesbeganincludingcounter- terrorism packages in its bilateral exercises with regional states and sent naval forces to assist the Philippines against the Abu Sayyaff Group. Indigenous operationalized cooperation also began to grow.In September 2003 Thailand andMalaysiaannouncedthat,concernedaboutinsurgentsandterrorists,they hadinvigoratedcooperativemaritimepatrolsinthenorthernStraitofMalacca. InJune2004,ameetingofFDPAdefenseministersinPenang,Malaysia,decided to orient their organization for the first time toward nontraditional maritime security,focusingoncounterterrorism,maritimeinterception,andantipiracy. InJuly2004Singapore,Indonesia,andMalaysiabeganaprogramoftrilateral coordinatedpatrolsthroughouttheStraitofMalacca.Thesepatrolsareofpar- ticularsignificance,foranumberofreasons.First,thestrongendorsementgiven byregionalmediaandthepositivepublicresponsetothefirstpatrolsdemon- stratedthedesireof governments From 2000 to 2002, a series of events propelled to appear committed to the pro- the Southeast Asian maritime sector from the gramandwidespreadsupportfor post–Cold War years into the new world of the theproject.Indonesia’sDecember twenty-first century. 2004 mobilization of two mari- time patrol aircraft and four warships to recover a hijacked Singaporeantugexemplifiestheprogram’spositivebenefits.Second,thisisthe firstsignificantlyoperationalizedmultilateralcooperationinSoutheastAsiato develop without an extraregional partner. Commitment to operationalizing maritimesecuritycooperationcontinuestogrow;IndiaandThailand,neigh- boringstatesthatcontrolthenorthernapproachestotheStraitofMalacca,have BRADFORD 69 expressedinterestinjoiningthepatrols,andthefoundingstateshaverespondedfavor- ably.Nonetheless,officersdirectlyinvolvedinthepatrolsstateprivatelythatthetrilateral patrolsareoftenmattersmoreof“show”thanofrealutilityandthatitistoosoonto assesstheirimpactonpiracy,smuggling,andothermaritimecrimesinthestrait. InNovember2004sixteencountries(theASEANmembersplusChina,South Korea,Japan,Bangladesh,India,andSriLanka)concludedtheRegionalCoop- erationAgreementonCombatingPiracyandArmedRobberyagainstShipsin Asia (ReCAAP). This agreement, first proposed by Japanese prime minister JunichiroKoizumiatthe2001ASEAN-plus-ThreeSummitinBrunei,hadbeen deadlockedformonthsbydisagreementoverwheretolocatetheReCAAPInfor- mationSharingCenter(ISC),whichwouldmaintaindatabases,conductanaly- sis, and act as an information clearinghouse. As explained by the Indonesian Foreign Ministry’s Director for ASEAN Politics and Communications, sensitivitystemmedfromthepossibilitythattheISCmightpublishreportsun- fairly critical to member states.This official shared that concern,arguing that theInternationalMaritimeBureauPiracyReportingCenterhasmisrepresented incidents in Malaysia waters as having occurred on the Indonesian side of the StraitofMalaccabecausethecenterislocatedinKualaLumpur.11 ReCAAPisapositivestep,beinganindigenouspan-Asianinitiativedevised primarily to deal with piracy, a phenomenon most conspicuous in Southeast Asia. The fact that members ultimately agreed to locate the ISC in Singapore demonstrateswillingnesstocompromiseinordertoadvancemaritimesecurity issues.However,theagreementdoesnotobligatememberstoanyspecificaction otherthansharinginformationthattheydeempertinenttoimminentpiracyat- tacks; furthermore, the ISC’s funding will be based on “voluntary contribu- tions.”12 Although not insignificant, ReCAAP alone will not eradicate Asian piracy. Takentogether,thesemanydevelopmentsconstitutesignificantprogress.Di- alogue and information sharing have been enhanced,states seem firmly com- mitted, and some states have begun to operationalize their maritime security cooperation.However,thefewoperationalarrangementsthathavebeencreated areinsufficienttocounterthegravemaritimethreatstheregionfaces. CONTEMPORARY MARITIME SECURITY THREATS IN SOUTHEAST ASIA Althoughtheregionalstateshavedeclaredcommitmentstosettlingdifferences peacefully,thethreatoftraditionalconflictcannotbecompletelyruledout,and theproximityofinternationalsealanesguaranteesthatanysuchconflictwould haveveryseriousimplications.Onepotentialtriggerforsuchconflictisthe remaining territorial disputes between states. Other, less traditional security 70 NAVALWARCOLLEGEREVIEW concerns pose a more immediate threat. These include terrorism and insur- gency;transnationalmaritimecrime;andharmtothemaritimeenvironment. TerritorialDisputes Territorialdisputes,mostofthemmaritimeinnatureandinvolvingconflicting claims to either islands or littoral waters, contribute to interstate tension in Southeast Asia.Among the disputes with significant maritime dimensions are thePhilippineclaimstoSabah,overlappingclaimstoeconomicexclusivezones, andmultilateraldisputesoverislandsandwatersintheSouthChinaSea.One suchissuewasseeminglyresolvedin2002,whentheInternationalCourtofJus- tice (ICJ) ruled in favor of Malaysia over Indonesia with regard to claims to SipadanandLitiganislands.Similarly,MalaysiaandSingaporehavesubmitted to the ICJ for arbitration a dispute regarding sovereignty over Pedra Blanca (PulauBatuPuteh),anislandintheSingaporeStraitwithanimportantaidto navigation that is passed by about fifty thousand ships every year. However, giventhehistoryof MalaysianactivitiesthatSingaporeregardsasprovocative, thelatterstilldevotessizableforcestosustainingitsclaim.Otherdisputeshave evenlessprospectforresolutioninthenearfuture. ThemosttroublesomedisputesarethoseintheSouthChinaSea,whereIn- donesia,Malaysia,Brunei,the Philippines,Vietnam,China,and Taiwan assert conflictingclaimstoseaandislandterritories.13Theseclaimsaredeemedtobe of vitalimportance,becausethearchipelagicseasmayhavevastpetroleumre- sourcesandtheislandsarestrategicallypositionedforsupportofsea-lanecon- troloramphibiouswarfare.Inrecenthistoryclaimantshaveclashedviolently, and the possibility of renewed fighting (short of open warfare) clearly exists. Thecurrentsituationis“volatileandcould,throughanunexpectedpoliticalor militaryevent,deteriorateintoopenconflict.”14Anyescalationcoulddisruptthe SouthChinaSea’shugevolumeofshipping,withgraveconsequences.15In2002 theASEANmembersandChinaindicatedtheirdesiretominimizetheriskby agreeing to a Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea. However,thedeclarationissomethinglessthanabindingcodeofconductora consensusaboutthewayforward;theSouthChinaSearemainsaflashpoint.16 TerrorismandInsurgency SeveralSoutheastAsianguerrillaandterroristgroupspossesssubstantialmari- timecapabilities.Since2000,al-Qa‘ida,theMoroIslamicLiberationFront,the Abu Sayyaff Group, Jemaah Islamiyah, the Kumpulan Militan Malaysia, the GerakanAcehMerdeka,andLaskarJihadhaveallbeensuspectedofplanningor executingmaritimeattacks.Othergroupshaveusedtheseatotransportweap- ons,moveforces,andraisefunds. BRADFORD 71 The most successful has been Abu Sayyaff,which has conducted dozens of successfulmaritimeoperationsinthesouthernPhilippines,metropolitanMa- nila,andEastMalaysia.In1995,AbuSayyaff conducteditsfirstlarge-scaleat- tack: amphibious forces landed by boat, torched the Philippine town of Ipil, robbed seven banks, and killed about a hundred people. Abu Sayyaff gained globalnotorietyin2000and2001whenitkidnappeddozensofpeople,among them Filipinos,Malaysians,Chinese,Europeans,and Americans,in a series of raidsonvillages,resorts,andshipsinandneartheSuluandCelebesSeas.De- spitealarge-scalegovernmentoffensivebackedbyAmericanforces,Philippine officialshaveconfirmedAbuSayyaffclaimsofresponsibilityforthe26February 2004sinkingofSuperferry14nearManila,inwhich116peoplewerekilled.17 AlthoughsofarlesssuccessfulinmaritimeSoutheastAsiathanAbuSayyaff, al-Qa‘ida and its close regional allies Jemaah Islamiyah and the Kumpulan MilitanMalaysiahavedemonstratedtheirintenttoconductlarge-scaleopera- tionsagainsttheU.S.Navyandglobaltrade.Since2000,regionalsecurityforces havedisruptedhalfadozenplotstoattackAmericanwarshipstransitingnarrow waterwaysorvisitingportsinSoutheastAsia.18The2002attackontheLimburg demonstratedal-Qa‘ida’sdesiretostrikethepetroleumdistributioninfrastruc- ture,adesirealsoconfirmedbyal-Qa‘idaliterature,includingaDecember2004 edictissuedbyOsamabinLaden.Therehasalsobeenincreasingconcernthat al-Qa‘idaoritsaffiliatesmightuseamerchantvesseltoadministeracataclysmic attack—perhapsanuclearbomb,radiological“dirtynuke,”orotherweaponof massdestruction—inashippingcontainer.Alternatively,alargepetroleum,liq- uefiedgas,orchemicalcarriercouldbehijackedandeithersunkinakeywater- wayorcrashedintoaportfacilityorpopulationcenter,turningthevessel’scargo intoagiganticbomb.Manyofthesescenarioscouldcauseunprecedentedlossof lifeandeconomicdisruption.19 TransnationalMaritimeCrime Transnationalmaritimecrimeinvolvessucheconomicallymotivatedactivityas piracy,smuggling,andillegalmigration.Transnationalmaritimecrimehassub- stantialsecurityramifications.Itiscostlyinhumantermsandisamajordrainon nationalresources.Furthermore,ithasasynergeticeffectthatexacerbatesinter- stateconflictandnonstatepoliticalviolence.Forinstance,illegalmigrationfuels tension between Malaysia and Indonesia. Transnational maritime crime pro- videsterroristandguerrillagroupsthemeanstomoveweaponsandpersonnel, raisefunds,andrecruitnewmembers.Forexample,theGerakanAcehMerdeka isheavilyinvolvedinthesmugglingofpeople,weapons,andothercontraband across the Strait of Malacca to sustain its struggle against the Indonesian

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