DTIC ADA520460: Regime and Periphery in Northern Yemen: The Huthi Phenomenon

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Regime and Periphery
in Northern Yemen
The Huthi Phenomenon
Barak A. Salmoni, Bryce Loidolt, Madeleine Wells
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Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
Salmoni, Barak A.
Regime and periphery in Northern Yemen : the Huthi phenomenon / Barak A.
Salmoni, Bryce Loidolt, Madeleine Wells.
p. cm.
Includes bibliographical references.
ISBN 978-0-8330-4933-9 (pbk. : alk. paper)
1. Yemen (Republic)--History--1990- 2. Civil war--Yemen (Republic)--History--
21st century. 3. Yemen (Republic)--Politics and government--21st century. 4. Yemen
(Republic)--Politics and government--20th century. I. Loidolt, Bryce. II. Wells,
Madeleine. III. Title.
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Cover photo: Yemeni Huthi rebels supervise the reopening of a road in Sa‘da, north of San‘a,
on February 16, 2010, following a truce between the rebels and government forces that
ended six months of fighting. AFP/Getty Images.
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Preface
The RAND National Defense Research Institute was asked to study the conflict
between the Government of Yemen and the Huthis of northern Yemen, in all of its
sociocultural, political, and military aspects. This study should be of interest to intel-
ligence analysts and military planners concerned with the security of the Arabian Pen-
insula, Yemen, and the Horn of Africa.
This research was sponsored by the Defense Intelligence Agency’s Middle East
and North Africa branch and conducted within the Intelligence Policy Center of the
RAND National Defense Research Institute, a federally funded research and develop-
ment center sponsored by the Office of the Secretary of Defense, the Joint Staff, the
Unified Combatant Commands, the Navy, the Marine Corps, the defense agencies,
and the defense Intelligence Community.
For more information on RAND’s Intelligence Policy Center, contact the Direc-
tor, John Parachini. He can be reached by email at [email protected]; by
phone at 703-413-1100, extension 5579; or by mail at the RAND Corporation, 1200
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is available at www.rand.org.
iii

Contents
Preface ................................................................................................. iii
Figures ................................................................................................. xi
Tables .................................................................................................xiii
Summary ..............................................................................................xv
Acknowledgments .................................................................................. xix
Arabic Terms and Definitions .................................................................... xxi
Abbreviations ......................................................................................xxvii
Introduction ........................................................................................... 1
Analytical Dimensions of the Conflict .............................................................. 2
Context ................................................................................................ 3
Roots .................................................................................................. 4
Proximate Causes ................................................................................... 6
The GoY Anti-Huthi Campaign: Prolonging Resistance, Provoking Insurgency? .......... 8
Chapter Structure and Major Analytical Questions ..............................................11
Part I: The Context of Regime-Periphery Relations in Northern Yemen ....................11
Part II: From Tension to Conflict: Social Change and Huthi Emergence, 1980s–2004 ...12
Part III: The Six Sa‘da Wars .......................................................................13
Conclusion ...........................................................................................14
Sources Consulted ....................................................................................14
Conclusion .............................................................................................16
Part I: The Context of Regime-Periphery Relations in Northern Yemen ..................17
CHAPTER ONE
Sa‘da in the North Yemeni Context ..............................................................19
A “United” Yemen’s Many Divides .................................................................19
Geographic and Material Divides ................................................................19
Social Divides and Distinctions in the Center and North .....................................21
Sect and Society .................................................................................... 22
v
vi Regime and Periphery in Northern Yemen: The Huthi Phenomenon
The Rhetorical Activation of Yemen’s Divides .................................................. 24
Physical, Human, and Economic Geography North of San‘a ...................................25
Physical Characteristics ............................................................................25
Population Dispersion in the Sa‘da Governorate ............................................... 27
Economy .............................................................................................31
Government Presence in the Governorate ........................................................ 42
Sa‘da as Geographic Periphery: Implications for the Huthi Conflict ......................... 43
CHAPTER TWO
The Sociocultural Ecology of the Huthi Conflict: Tribalism and Religion ...............45
Qabyala North of San‘a: Geography ................................................................45
Qabyala North of San‘a: Aspects of Social Organization ........................................52
Qabila and Shaykhs.................................................................................53
Qabyala as a Value System ........................................................................ 56
Individual and Collective Autonomy as Expressed Through Weapons ..................... 60
Tribal Law and Conflict Containment ..........................................................62
Zaydism as a Religious and Social Phenomenon ................................................. 64
Zaydi Political History in Yemen to 1962 .......................................................65
Theology .............................................................................................65
Practice and Interpretation ....................................................................... 66
Zaydi Self-Definition .............................................................................. 66
Zaydi Religious Strata: Sada, Fuqaha’, and Quda ..............................................67
The Latent Nature of Socioreligious Tension ....................................................72
The Sunni Spectrum: Implications for GoY-Huthi Conflict .....................................72
Conclusion .............................................................................................75
Part II: From Tension to Conflict: Social Change and Huthi Emergence,
1980s–2004 ......................................................................................79
CHAPTER THREE
Run-Up to the Regime-Huthi Conflict, 1980s–2001 .........................................81
Economic, Social, and Political Ferment ...........................................................81
Regional Opening and Economic Changes, 1970s–1990s.....................................81
Social Change and Friction in Sa‘da ..............................................................83
The Role of the Pre-Unification Regime, 1980s–1990 ........................................ 86
From Unification to the Believing Youth ......................................................... 88
An Overheating Governorate, 1990–2001 ...................................................... 88
Salafism in the Zaydi Heartland ..................................................................89
Zaydi Defensive Responses ...................................................................... 94
Politics at the Center .............................................................................. 94
Religious Revival ................................................................................... 96
Contents vii
The Believing Youth ............................................................................... 98
The Huthi Family ................................................................................. 101
Conclusion: Toward 2001 .......................................................................... 107
CHAPTER FOUR
From Tension to Confrontation: Triggers of Conflict, 2001–2004 ...................... 111
Sa‘da in the New Millennium ..................................................................... 113
Sa‘da Dissent and Husayn al-Huthi as Mobilizer and Ideologue ............................. 114
Methods, Occasions, and Locations ............................................................ 115
Themes, Messages, and Motifs in Husayn al-Huthi’s Lectures ............................. 117
What Did Husayn Want? ....................................................................... 121
The Post–9/11 Environment and Saleh Regime Calculations ............................... 124
Part III: The Six Sa‘da Wars ..................................................................... 129
CHAPTER FIVE
From Phases to Rolling Conflict: Time Line, Geography, and Magnitude of
Huthi-GoY Fighting ............................................................................... 131
The Six “Sa‘da Wars” ............................................................................... 131
Time Line and Geographic Migration of the Conflict ......................................... 133
Phase 1 (June 2004–September 2004) ........................................................ 134
Interim 1 (September 2004–March 2005) .................................................... 134
Phase 2 (March 2005–April 2005) ............................................................. 134
Interim 2 (April 2005–December 2005) ...................................................... 137
Phase 3 (December 2005–February 2006) .................................................... 138
Interim 3 (February 2006–February 2007) ................................................... 141
Phase 4 (February 2007–January 2008) ....................................................... 143
Interim 4 (January 2008–May 2008) .......................................................... 148
Phase 5 (May 2008–July 2008) ................................................................. 148
Interim 5 (July 2008–August 2009) ........................................................... 150
Phase 6 (August 2009–February 2010) ....................................................... 154
CHAPTER SIX
GoY Operations: Goals and Methods .......................................................... 159
GoY Military Operations........................................................................... 159
The Information Dimension ....................................................................... 168
Huthis as Foreign ................................................................................. 169
Huthis as Closet Imamis Who Distort Zaydism .............................................. 171
Huthis as Cowardly, Oppressing Yemenis in the North ..................................... 174
Huthis as Anti-Republican ...................................................................... 176
The GoY as Aligned with the People ........................................................... 178