Table Of Content

CORPORATION THE ARTS This PDF document was made available from www.rand.org as a public CHILD POLICY service of the RAND Corporation. CIVIL JUSTICE EDUCATION Jump down to document(cid:25) ENERGY AND ENVIRONMENT HEALTH AND HEALTH CARE INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS The RAND Corporation is a nonprofit research NATIONAL SECURITY organization providing objective analysis and effective POPULATION AND AGING PUBLIC SAFETY solutions that address the challenges facing the public SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY and private sectors around the world. SUBSTANCE ABUSE TERRORISM AND HOMELAND SECURITY TRANSPORTATION AND INFRASTRUCTURE Support RAND WORKFORCE AND WORKPLACE Purchase this document Browse Books & Publications Make a charitable contribution For More Information Visit RAND at www.rand.org Explore the RAND Arroyo Center View document details Limited Electronic Distribution Rights This document and trademark(s) contained herein are protected by law as indicated in a notice appearing later in this work. This electronic representation of RAND intellectual property is provided for non-commercial use only. Unauthorized posting of RAND PDFs to a non-RAND Web site is prohibited. RAND PDFs are protected under copyright law. Permission is required from RAND to reproduce, or reuse in another form, any of our research documents for commercial use. For information on reprint and linking permissions, please see RAND Permissions. Report Documentation Page Form Approved OMB No. 0704-0188 Public reporting burden for the collection of information is estimated to average 1 hour per response, including the time for reviewing instructions, searching existing data sources, gathering and maintaining the data needed, and completing and reviewing the collection of information. Send comments regarding this burden estimate or any other aspect of this collection of information, including suggestions for reducing this burden, to Washington Headquarters Services, Directorate for Information Operations and Reports, 1215 Jefferson Davis Highway, Suite 1204, Arlington VA 22202-4302. Respondents should be aware that notwithstanding any other provision of law, no person shall be subject to a penalty for failing to comply with a collection of information if it does not display a currently valid OMB control number. 1. REPORT DATE 3. DATES COVERED 2010 2. REPORT TYPE 00-00-2010 to 00-00-2010 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE 5a. CONTRACT NUMBER Army Deployments of OIF and OEF 5b. GRANT NUMBER 5c. PROGRAM ELEMENT NUMBER 6. AUTHOR(S) 5d. PROJECT NUMBER 5e. TASK NUMBER 5f. WORK UNIT NUMBER 7. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES) 8. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION Rand Corporation,1776 Main Street,PO Box 2138,Santa REPORT NUMBER Monica,CA,90407-2138 9. SPONSORING/MONITORING AGENCY NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES) 10. SPONSOR/MONITOR’S ACRONYM(S) 11. SPONSOR/MONITOR’S REPORT NUMBER(S) 12. DISTRIBUTION/AVAILABILITY STATEMENT Approved for public release; distribution unlimited 13. SUPPLEMENTARY NOTES 14. ABSTRACT 15. SUBJECT TERMS 16. SECURITY CLASSIFICATION OF: 17. LIMITATION OF 18. NUMBER 19a. NAME OF ABSTRACT OF PAGES RESPONSIBLE PERSON a. REPORT b. ABSTRACT c. THIS PAGE Same as 83 unclassified unclassified unclassified Report (SAR) Standard Form 298 (Rev. 8-98) Prescribed by ANSI Std Z39-18 This product is part of the RAND Corporation documented briefing series. RAND documented briefings are based on research briefed to a client, sponsor, or targeted au- dience and provide additional information on a specific topic. Although documented briefings have been peer reviewed, they are not expected to be comprehensive and may present preliminary findings. DOCUMENTED B R I E F I N G Army Deployments to OIF and OEF Timothy M. Bonds, Dave Baiocchi, Laurie L. McDonald Prepared for the United States Army Approved for public release; distribution unlimited ARROYO CENTER The research described in this report was sponsored by the United States Army under Contract No. W74V8H-06-C-0001. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Bonds, Tim, 1962– Army deployments to OIF and OEF / Timothy M. Bonds, Dave Baiocchi, Laurie L. McDonald. p. cm. Includes bibliographical references. ISBN 978-0-8330-4920-9 (pbk. : alk. paper) 1. Iraq War, 2003–—Manpower—United States. 2. Afghan War, 2001–—Manpower—United States. 3. Operation Enduring Freedom, 2001– 4. Deployment (Strategy) 5. United States. Army—Personnel management. 6. United States. Army—Recruiting, enlistment, etc. 7. United States. Army—Operational readiness. 8. United States—Military policy. I. Baiocchi, Dave. II. McDonald, Laurie L., 1955– III. Title. IV. Title: Army deployments to Operation Iraqi Freedom and Operation Enduring Freedom. DS79.764.U6B66 2010 956.7044'340973—dc22 2010003443 The RAND Corporation is a nonprofit research organization providing objective analysis and effective solutions that address the challenges facing the public and private sectors around the world. RAND’s publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors. R ® is a registered trademark. © Copyright 2010 RAND Corporation Permission is given to duplicate this document for personal use only, as long as it is unaltered and complete. Copies may not be duplicated for commercial purposes. Unauthorized posting of RAND documents to a non-RAND Web site is prohibited. RAND documents are protected under copyright law. For information on reprint and linking permissions, please visit the RAND permissions page (http://www.rand.org/publications/ permissions.html). Published 2010 by the RAND Corporation 1776 Main Street, P.O. Box 2138, Santa Monica, CA 90407-2138 1200 South Hayes Street, Arlington, VA 22202-5050 4570 Fifth Avenue, Suite 600, Pittsburgh, PA 15213-2665 RAND URL: http://www.rand.org To order RAND documents or to obtain additional information, contact Distribution Services: Telephone: (310) 451-7002; Fax: (310) 451-6915; Email: [email protected] - iii - Preface In October 2008, the Vice Chief of Staff of the U.S. Army asked RAND Arroyo Center to assess the demands placed upon the Army by deployments to Operation Enduring Freedom (OEF) in Afghanistan and Operation Iraqi Freedom (OIF) in Iraq. The timing of this request coincided with some publicly voiced misconceptions regarding the Army’s capacity to deploy additional soldiers to Operations Enduring Freedom and Iraqi Freedom. Analyzing Department of Defense (DoD) deployment data through December 2008, Arroyo found that the Army has provided over 1 million troop-years to OIF and OEF, and most soldiers now deployed to OEF and OIF are on their second or third tour. Those soldiers who have not yet gone to OEF and OIF typically fall into one of two categories: new soldiers, needing to complete training before deployment; and experienced soldiers, needed for missions outside of Iraq and Afghanistan. The demand for active-duty soldiers in OEF and OIF would have exceeded supply under the Army’s normal deployment policies, so the Army took several actions to increase supply: it increased the overall size of the active component; it reassigned soldiers from other missions to the pool of soldiers rotating to OEF and OIF; and it greatly increased the rate at which soldiers rotate to and from the wars—to a rate that the Chief of Staff of the Army has characterized as unsustainable. The Army retains very limited unutilized capacity to deploy additional active-duty soldiers beyond the current troop levels in OEF and OIF. This work was performed as a direct-support effort by RAND Arroyo Center to the Office of the Vice Chief of Staff, U.S. Army, and to the Army Quadrennial Defense Review (QDR) Office. It should be of interest to those within the Army and the Department of Defense planning the nation’s future force structure. RAND Arroyo Center, part of the RAND Corporation, is the - iv - U.S. Army’s federally funded research and development center for policy studies and analyses. For more information on this study, please contact Tim Bonds at RAND Arroyo Center (telephone 310-393-0411, extension 7151, email [email protected]). For more information about RAND Arroyo Center, contact the Director of Operations (telephone 310-393-0411, extension 6419; FAX 310-451-6952; email [email protected]), or visit Arroyo’s web site at http://www.rand.org/ard/. - v - Contents Preface iii ............................................................................................ Tables vii ............................................................................................. Summary ix ......................................................................................... Acknowledgments xv .............................................................................. Abbreviations xvii .................................................................................. 1. INTRODUCTION 1 ..................................................................... Purpose 1 .................................................................................... Data Sources 1 ............................................................................. 2. DEMAND FOR TROOPS IN OPERATION IRAQI FREEDOM AND OPERATION ENDURING FREEDOM 7 ................................ Cumulative Troop-Years Contributed to OIF and OEF 7 ..................... Active-Duty Troop-Years Deployed 9 ............................................... Active-Duty Assigned Strength Supporting Cumulative Deployments 11 .................................................................... Yearly Demand for Active-Duty Soldiers 13 ...................................... The Army’s Cumulative Deployed Contribution Increased Steadily as Soldiers Returned to Theater for Repeated Deployments 15 ....... Cumulative Soldier Time Deployed Exceeds Cumulative Deployed Time of Other Services 17 ....................................................... Deployment Burden Falls Most Heavily on the Army’s Warrants, Noncommissioned Officers, and the Middle Ranks of Officers 19 .. 3. ARMY DEPLOYMENT CAPACITY AND SOLDIER DEPLOYMENT RATIO 21 ............................................................ Army Capacity to Support Troop Demands: 2002 End Strength 21 ........ BOG:Dwell Ratio Required to Support Deployment Demands, 2003–2005 24 ....................................................................... Soldiers Assigned to “Infrastructure” and “Forces” 26 ......................... - vi - Soldiers Moved from “Infrastructure” to “Forces” 28 .......................... DoD Increased Army End Strength and Changed Other Demands 31 .... BOG:Dwell Ratio Required to Provide Soldier Numbers Demanded, 2005–2009 34 ....................................................................... 4. MAPPING SOLDIER FLOWS INTO UNITS AND IDENTIFYING SOLDIERS NOT YET DEPLOYED 37 ...................... Analyses from USD (P&R) 37 ......................................................... Illustration of the Flow of Soldiers from Recruits to Trained and Ready Soldiers 39 .................................................................. Size of Each Pool 42 ...................................................................... Identify Groups of Trained and Ready Soldiers Who Have Not Yet Deployed 45 ......................................................................... Distribution of Not-Yet-Deployed Soldiers by Length of Service 47 ....... Distribution of Not-Yet-Deployed Soldiers by Military Occupational Specialty 49 ....................................................... Distribution of Not-Yet-Deployed Soldiers by Unit of Assignment and Military Occupational Specialty 51 ...................................... Answers to the Research Questions Posed 53 ..................................... 1. Army Troop Levels Maintained in OIF and OEF 53 ..................... 2. Soldier BOG:Dwell Ratios 54 ................................................... 3. Soldiers Not Yet Deployed 55 .................................................. Conclusions 56 ............................................................................ Appendix: DEFENSE MANPOWER DATA CENTER’S PERSONNEL DEPLOYMENT ACCOUNTABILITY UPDATE 59 ........................... Bibliography 63 .................................................................................... - vii - Tables 1. Army Deployments to OIF and OEF 18 ........................................ 2. Army Joint Activities and National Missions 29 ..............................