DTIC ADA508156: China's International Behavior. Activism, Opportunism, and Diversification

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China’s International Behavior. Activism, Opportunism, and
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Diversification
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China’s
international
Behavior
Activism, Opportunism, and Diversification
Evan S. Medeiros
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Medeiros, Evan S.
China’s international behavior : activism, opportunism, and diversification /
Evan S. Medeiros.
p. cm.
Includes bibliographical references.
ISBN 978-0-8330-4709-0 (pbk. : alk. paper)
1. China—Foreign relations—21st century. 2. National security—China.
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Preface
The expanding scope of China’s international activities is one of the
newest and most important trends in global affairs. China is increas-
ingly present and involved in many parts of the world, including in
regions once only marginal to Beijing’s interests. China’s global activ-
ism has arisen so rapidly and has so many dimensions that it immedi-
ately and naturally raises questions about China’s intentions and the
implications for U.S. security interests. U.S. policymakers and strate-
gists would like to understand more fully how China defines its inter-
national objectives, how it is pursuing them, how effective it has been,
and whether it seeks to undermine U.S. power and influence.
To address these issues, this monograph analyzes the content,
character, and execution of China’s international behavior. It examines
how China views its security environment, how it defines its foreign
policy objectives, how it is pursuing these objectives, and the conse-
quences for U.S. economic and security interests. The breadth and the
rapidity of change in China’s international activities are daunting to
analyze, let alone to understand. This monograph aims to make such
assessments more accessible and meaningful.
This research is relevant for U.S. policymakers and strategists
who are focused on managing U.S.-China relations, on shaping Chi-
nese diplomacy, and on ensuring that China’s global activism does not
undercut U.S. foreign policy goals. This research also helps identify
opportunities for the United States and China to broaden and deepen
bilateral cooperation.
iii
iv China’s International Behavior: Activism, Opportunism, and Diversification
This monograph is part of a substantial and growing body of
RAND Corporation research that examines the security implications
for the United States of China’s growing power and influence—both
as a military and as a diplomatic power. The research reported here was
conducted by the Strategy and Doctrine Program of RAND Project
AIR FORCE and was sponsored by the U.S. Air Force’s Director of
Operational Plans and Joint Matters (AF/A5X) and the Combatant
Commander of the Pacific Air Forces (PACAF/CC) for a study enti-
tled “The U.S.-China Security Relationship: Taiwan and Beyond.” It
builds on previous RAND Project AIR FORCE work, including the
following:
• Evan S. Medeiros, Keith Crane, Eric Heginbotham, Norman D.
Levin, Julia F. Lowell, Angel Rabassa, and Somi Seong, Pacific
Currents: The Responses of U.S. Allies and Security Partners in East
Asia to China’s Rise, MG-736-AF, 2008.
• Roger Cliff, Mark Burles, Michael Chase, Derek Eaton, and Kevin
Pollpeter, Entering the Dragon’s Lair: Chinese Anti-Access Strategies
and Their Implications for the United States, MG-524-AF, 2007.
• Roger Cliff and David A. Shlapak, U.S.-China Relations After
Resolution of Taiwan’s Status, MG-567-AF, 2007.
• Evan S. Medeiros, Roger Cliff, Keith Crane, and James C.
Mulvenon, A New Direction for China’s Defense Industry,
MG-334-AF, 2005.
• Keith Crane, Roger Cliff, Evan S. Medeiros, James C. Mulvenon,
and William H. Overholt, Modernizing China’s Military: Oppor-
tunities and Constraints, MG-260-AF, 2005.
RAND Project AIR FORCE
RAND Project AIR FORCE (PAF), a division of the RAND Cor-
poration, is the U.S. Air Force’s federally funded research and devel-
opment center for studies and analyses. PAF provides the Air Force
with independent analyses of policy alternatives affecting the devel-
opment, employment, combat readiness, and support of current and
Preface v
future aerospace forces. Research is conducted in four programs: Force
Modernization and Employment; Manpower, Personnel, and Train-
ing; Resource Management; and Strategy and Doctrine.
Additional information about PAF is available on our Web site:
http://www.rand.org/paf/

Contents
Preface ............................................................................. iii
Figures ............................................................................. xi
Tables .............................................................................xiii
Summary ..........................................................................xv
Acknowledgments ............................................................. xxv
Abbreviations ..................................................................xxvii
CHAPTER ONE
Introduction ....................................................................... 1
CHAPTER TWO
China’s Foreign Policy Outlook................................................ 7
The Three Lenses ................................................................... 7
National Revitalization .......................................................... 7
A Victim Mentality .............................................................10
Defensive Security Outlook ...................................................11
Long-Term Diplomatic Priorities ................................................13
Sovereignty and Territorial Integrity .........................................14
Economic Development .......................................................15
International Status .............................................................16
CHAPTER THREE
Current Perceptions of the International Security Environment .......19
Major Power Conflict .............................................................21
Globalization and Multipolarity ............................................... 26
vii