DTIC ADA494461: Assessing Irregular Warfare: A Framework for Intelligence Analysis

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Assessing
Irregular Warfare
A Framework for Intelligence Analysis
Eric V. Larson, Derek Eaton,
Brian Nichiporuk, Thomas S. Szayna
Prepared for the United States Army
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Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
Assessing irregular warfare : a framework for intelligence analysis / Eric V. Larson ...
[et al.].
p. cm.
Includes bibliographical references.
ISBN 978-0-8330-4322-1 (pbk. : alk. paper)
1. Military intelligence—United States. 2. Asymmetric warfare. I. Larson, Eric V.
(Eric Victor), 1957–
UB251.U5A77 2008
355.3'432—dc22
2008004727
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Preface
This monograph documents the results of a study titled “Planning
Intelligence Support to Irregular Warfare.” The aim of the study was
to assist the National Ground Intelligence Center (NGIC) in better
understanding the intelligence analytic requirements of irregular war-
fare (IW) by providing an analytic framework for IW on which to base
an educational and training curriculum that would enhance the capa-
bilities NGIC analysts use to assess IW situations.
The results described should be of interest to intelligence analysts
and managers in the intelligence community who are wrestling with the
innumerable conceptual, collection, and analytic challenges presented
by contemporary IW environments. Additionally, these results may be
of interest to scholarly audiences involved in developing new analytic
methodologies and tools that might be employed in IW analysis.
This research was sponsored by the NGIC, a major subordinate
command of the U.S. Army’s Intelligence and Security Command,
and conducted within RAND Arroyo Center’s Strategy, Doctrine, and
Resources Program. RAND Arroyo Center, part of the RAND Cor-
poration, is a federally funded research and development center spon-
sored by the United States Army.
For comments or further information about this monograph,
please contact Thomas Szayna (telephone [phone], extension
7758; e-mail [email protected]) or Eric Larson (telephone
310-393-0411, extension 7467; email [email protected]).
The Project Unique Identification Code (PUIC) for the project
that produced this document is NGIC-06001.
iii
iv Assessing Irregular Warfare: A Framework for Intelligence Analysis
For more information on RAND Arroyo Center, contact the Director
of Operations (telephone [phone], extension 6419; FAX 310-451-
6952; email [email protected]), or visit Arroyo’s Web site at
http://www.rand.org/ard/.
Contents
Preface ............................................................................. iii
Figures .............................................................................vii
Tables .............................................................................. ix
Summary .......................................................................... xi
Acknowledgments ...............................................................xv
Abbreviations ................................................................... xvii
CHAPTER ONE
Introduction ....................................................................... 1
Background to the Study .......................................................... 1
Study Aims and Analytic Approach ............................................. 3
Organization of This Monograph ................................................ 5
CHAPTER TWO
Defining Irregular Warfare ..................................................... 7
A Review of Recent Efforts to Define Irregular Warfare ...................... 8
Irregular Warfare Operation Types .............................................11
Irregular Warfare Common Logical Lines of Operation .....................14
Chapter Conclusions ..............................................................17
CHAPTER THREE
A Framework for Assessing Irregular Warfare ............................19
Population-Centric Irregular Warfare Operations ........................... 20
Initial Assessment and Data Gathering ..................................... 22
Detailed Stakeholder Analyses ............................................... 26
Dynamic Analyses ............................................................. 28
v
vi Assessing Irregular Warfare: A Framework for Intelligence Analysis
Analytic Techniques for Irregular Warfare Analysis ........................29
Counterterrorism Operations ....................................................35
Tactical Counterterrorism Operations ...................................... 38
Operations Against Transnational Terrorist Networks .....................39
Comparison to the Standard IPB Process ..................................... 40
Chapter Conclusions ............................................................. 43
CHAPTER FOUR
Conclusions .......................................................................45
APPENDIX
A. A Review of Defense Policy, Strategy, and Irregular Warfare ......47
B. Irregular Warfare Analysis Doctrinal References ......................61
References .........................................................................63
Figures
S.1. Analytic Framework for IW Analysis ...............................xii
1.1. Analytic Approach for Identifying IW Intelligence and
Analytic Requirements ................................................ 4
2.1. Intelligence Requirements for Irregular Warfare Logical
Lines of Operation ....................................................16
3.1. IW Assessment Framework ......................................... 23
3.2. Geospatially Oriented Aspects of the Information Domain
of the Operating Environment ......................................25
A.1. 2006 Quadrennial Defense Review’s Priorities ....................49
A.2. 2006 Quadrennial Defense Review’s View of Threats ........... 50
A.3. National Strategy for Global War on Terrorism ...................57
A.4. Military Strategic Framework for Greater War on Terrorism ....58
vii