DTIC ADA494379: Radical Islam in East Africa

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Preface
Historically, Africa has not been a central theater in U.S. strategic plan-
ning. U.S. interests there have been viewed as marginal, and the threats
to those interests have not been considered serious enough to require the
deployment of significant resources or policy attention. In recent years,
however, Africa has come to be regarded as an increasingly important
region, where American geopolitical interests and the potential threats
to those interests are both on the rise. Consequently, the Department
of Defense is abandoning its traditional policy of strategic minimalism
in favor of a more robust approach, signified most prominently by the
establishment of a unified combatant command for Africa.
This monograph is part of a broader study of U.S. security roles in
sub-Saharan Africa that is meant to inform ongoing efforts to restruc-
ture the U.S. military command arrangements in Africa and to pos-
ture air and space capabilities, as well as other U.S. government assets,
to more effectively protect and advance American national interests
on the continent. The monograph deals with the rising threat to U.S.
interests represented by the spread of militant Islamism and the devel-
opment of radical Islamist networks in East Africa. Equally impor-
tant, however, it seeks to place those trends in the broad context of the
diverse currents of Islamic practice in the region and the social, eco-
nomic, and political factors that have shaped the security environment
in East Africa.
The monograph examines the complex ethno-religious landscape
in East Africa, the characteristics of the East African environment
that have produced failed or weak states susceptible to exploitation by
iii
iv Radical Islam in East Africa
extremist groups, and the factors that have contributed to the emer-
gence of these groups. It concludes with a series of recommendations
for countering or mitigating the effects of adverse trends and protect-
ing U.S. interests in East Africa.
The research for this study was sponsored by Brig Gen Michael
A. Snodgrass, USAF, who until the fall of 2007 served as Director
of Plans, Programs, and Analyses at Headquarters United States Air
Forces in Europe (USAFE/A5/A8). It is part of a project entitled “U.S.
Security Roles in Africa,” led by Adam Grissom, and was carried out
in the Strategy and Doctrine Program of RAND Project AIR FORCE.
Research for this project was completed in October 2007. The book
should be of value to the national security community and interested
members of the general public, especially those with an interest in Afri-
can security issues and politico-religious trends in the Muslim world.
RAND Project AIR FORCE
RAND Project AIR FORCE (PAF), a division of the RAND Cor-
poration, is the U.S. Air Force’s federally funded research and devel-
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with independent analyses of policy alternatives affecting the devel-
opment, employment, combat readiness, and support of current and
future aerospace forces. Research is conducted in four programs: Force
Modernization and Employment; Manpower, Personnel, and Train-
ing; Resource Management; and Strategy and Doctrine.
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http://www.rand.org/paf
Contents
Preface ............................................................................. iii
Figures .............................................................................vii
Tables .............................................................................. ix
Summary .......................................................................... xi
Acknowledgments ...............................................................xv
Abbreviations ................................................................... xvii
CHAPTER ONE
Al-Qaeda in East Africa ......................................................... 1
CHAPTER TWO
Characteristics of East African Environment Conducive to a
Jihadist Presence .................................................................. 7
Weak Governance and Collapsed States ........................................ 8
Alternative Power Centers ........................................................16
Prevalence of the Informal Economy ...........................................19
Porous Borders .................................................................... 20
Widespread Access to Illegal Weapons .........................................21
Proximity to the Arabian Peninsula............................................ 22
Operational Access to Attack Venues .......................................... 22
CHAPTER THREE
The Ethno-Religious Landscape of East Africa ............................25
Country Analysis ................................................................. 27
Sudan ............................................................................ 27
Somalia and Djibouti ...........................................................29
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vi Radical Islam in East Africa
Ethiopia and Eritrea ............................................................33
The Swahili Coast .............................................................. 34
Muslim-State Relations on the Swahili Coast ............................. 36
CHAPTER FOUR
The Growth of Radical Islam ..................................................39
Ideological Infiltration ........................................................... 40
Islamic Charities ..................................................................41
Catalytic Events: The Islamist-Military Coup in Sudan and the
Collapse of the Somali State ............................................... 44
Radicalization in Sudan ....................................................... 46
Sudan Counterterrorism Posture After 9/11 .................................51
Somalia: Al-Ittihad al-Islami ..................................................53
The Rise of the Islamic Courts Union .......................................55
The ICU’s Relationship to the AIAI ......................................... 56
The ICU’s Rule in Mogadishu (May–December 2006) ...................58
Trends in Post-ICU Somalia .....................................................63
Other Al-Qaeda-Linked Networks .............................................69
CHAPTER FIVE
Countering Terrorism in East Africa .........................................71
Current Counterterrorism Programs ...........................................71
Recommendations ................................................................74
Bibliography ......................................................................79
Figures
2.1. Map of Southern Somalia, Puntland, and Somaliland,
Showing Disputed Areas Between Somaliland and
Puntland. .............................................................11
3.1. Map of Islam in East Africa ...................................... 28
4.1. Expansion of the ICU ..............................................62
vii