DTIC ADA489288: Thinking About America's Defense. An Analytical Memoir

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THINKING
ABOUT
AMERICA’S
DEFENSE
An Analytical Memoir
Glenn A. Kent
With
David Ochmanek
Michael Spirtas
Bruce R. Pirnie
Prepared for the United States Air Force
Approved for public release; distribution unlimited
PROJECT AIR FORCE
This publication was sponsored by the United States Air Force under
Contract FA7014-06-C-0001. Further information may be obtained
from the Strategic Planning Division, Directorate of Plans, Hq USAF.
Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
Kent, Glenn A., 1915–
Thinking about America’s defense : an analytical memoir / Glenn A. Kent ; with
David Ochmanek, Michael Spirtas, Bruce R. Pirnie.
p. cm.
Includes bibliographical references.
ISBN 978-0-8330-4452-5 (pbk. : alk. paper)
1. Military planning—United States. 2. United States. Air Force—Officers—
Biography. 3. Generals—United States—Biography. 4. Strategic forces—United
States. 5. National security—United States. 6. United States—Defenses—Decision
making. 7. United States—Military policy. I. Ochmanek, David A.
II. Spirtas, Michael. III. Pirnie, Bruce, 1940– IV. Title.
U153.K466 2008
355'.033073—dc22
2008025840
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Preface
For those who have known and worked with Lieutenant General
(retired) Glenn Altran Kent over the years, it came as something of a
shock a few years ago when, in his late eighties, he (sort of) retired. That
is, he stopped coming into work every day. He has remained engaged
in U.S. national security affairs as an astute observer of policy, and
he continues to make important contributions to the work of his col-
leagues at the RAND Corporation and elsewhere. His colleagues still
turn to him for his insights on current work. But he is, alas, no longer a
daily presence. The void that this transition in General Kent’s role cre-
ated in the professional lives of his colleagues prompted us to approach
him about recording some of the high points of his career as a defense
analyst so that these invaluable lessons would not be lost. The result is
this volume.
This is not a memoir or a biography in the traditional sense of
these words. General Kent was not really interested in recounting the
events of his life, fascinating though they are. He was, however, will-
ing and indeed eager to share what he has learned about analysis and
defense policymaking. Hence, he has produced what we call an ana-
lytical memoir, in which he shares his account of the most significant
issues with which he was involved over the course of his career—how
he saw each issue and its significance, how he conceptualized and
addressed the central analytical problems associated with the issue, and
how his work affected policy. Because General Kent’s career in defense
began just before World War II and extended into the 21st century and
because he was intimately involved in many of the most salient national
iii
iv Thinking About America’s Defense: An Analytical Memoir
security debates over the course of that span, to read this volume is, in
many ways, to read an insider’s history of key aspects of the Cold War
and post–Cold War defense strategies of the United States.
Everyone who has worked with General Kent is indebted to him
for the contributions he made to solving difficult, complex problems.
Whether the task at hand was predicting the weather over Greenland
in support of crews ferrying combat aircraft to England, setting the
performance specifications for the Air Force’s next frontline fighter air-
craft, or outflanking the leadership of the Navy in support of the cre-
ation of the Single Integrated Operational Plan (SIOP) for U.S. stra-
tegic nuclear forces, General Kent always gave it his best. And his best
was always very, very good. The stories collected in this volume are
another tangible legacy of this uniquely creative, insightful, and influ-
ential man, and for this, we are again in his debt.
Project AIR FORCE
RAND Project AIR FORCE (PAF), a division of the RAND Corpora-
tion, is the Air Force’s federally funded research and development center
for studies and analyses. PAF provides the Air Force with independent
analyses of policy alternatives affecting the deployment, employment,
combat readiness, and support of current and future aerospace forces.
Research is conducted in four programs: Force Modernization and
Employment; Manpower, Personnel, and Training; Resource Manage-
ment; and Strategy and Doctrine.
Additional information about PAF is available on our Web site:
http://www.rand.org/paf/
Contents
Preface ............................................................................. iii
Figures ............................................................................. ix
Tables .............................................................................. xi
Boxes ..............................................................................xiii
Acknowledgments ...............................................................xv
Abbreviations .................................................................... xxi
FOREWORD
Creating Strategic Analysis ..................................................... 1
Thomas C. Schelling
FOREWORD
Putting Analysis to Work ....................................................... 3
Harold Brown
Introduction ....................................................................... 7
David Ochmanek, Bruce Pirnie, and Michael Spirtas
CHAPTER ONE
The Single Integrated Operational Plan .....................................21
The Advent of the SIOP ......................................................... 22
Defending the Planners of the SIOP ........................................... 30
Calculating the “SIOP Degrade” ................................................37
CHAPTER TWO
Nuclear Weapons: Strategy and Arms Control............................ 43
Limiting Damage to the United States ........................................ 43
Limiting Damage: Allocation of Resources ................................... 50
v
vi Thinking About America’s Defense: An Analytical Memoir
Helping with DPMs ............................................................. 54
Changing the Paradigm of Arms Control..................................... 56
From SALT to START ...........................................................62
“Stability” Between U.S. and Soviet Strategic Forces .........................72
The Concept of First-Strike Stability .........................................73
Insights on Strategic Offensive Forces ....................................... 80
The Debate over Strategic Defenses ...........................................82
The Transition from Assured Destruction to Assured Survival ..........83
Calculating First-Strike Stability in the Presence of Strategic
Defenses .................................................................... 87
Final Thoughts ..................................................................89
CHAPTER THREE
Analysis, Force Planning, and the Paradigm for Modernizing .........93
On Analysis ........................................................................93
Running Air Force Studies and Analysis ..................................... 101
My General Approach and the “Learn to Think” Mandate ............. 101
On Recruiting ................................................................. 104
The Paradigm for Promoting Innovation and Modernizing the
Operational Capabilities of the Force .................................... 105
A Framework for Modernizing .............................................. 106
Strategies to Tasks: A Construct for Advocating New Concepts .......... 115
Strategies to Tasks Debuts ................................................... 116
The Advocacy of Systems .................................................... 119
Strategies to Tasks Employed to This Day ................................. 120
CHAPTER FOUR
Modernizing Nuclear Forces ................................................ 123
Killing the Concept for an Area-Denial Weapon ........................... 123
The B-36 Delivering Megaton Bombs ........................................ 126
Developing the MB-1 Rocket ................................................. 128
Other Observations ........................................................... 136
The Short-Range Attack Missile Affair ....................................... 137
The Minuteman Missile ........................................................ 139
Responding to a Possible Soviet Nationwide Antiballistic
Missile Deployment ........................................................ 141
Contents vii
The Minuteman III ........................................................... 144
Defining the Deployment of the Minuteman III ......................... 146
Penetrating Soviet Air Defenses: The Argument for Decoys ............... 149
Keeping Bombers in the Triad: The Mix Is the Thing ...................... 153
Gaining Insight as to the Vulnerability of Submarines on Patrol ......... 158
Defining and Promoting the Defense Support Program ................... 160
CHAPTER FIVE
Modernizing Conventional Forces ......................................... 165
The C-5A Fiasco ................................................................. 165
Defining the F-X and Saving the F-15 ........................................ 168
The Rationale for the Lightweight Fighter ................................... 172
Demonstrating the AWACS ................................................... 179
Starting the JSTARS Program ................................................. 184
Keeping the Global Positioning System Alive ............................... 188
JDAM and the CAG for Bomber Weapons .................................. 191
CHAPTER SIX
Analytical Tools ................................................................ 199
Assessing the Effectiveness of Bomber Attacks .............................. 199
Assessing the Effectiveness of ABM Deployments .......................... 202
Providing Insights with the SABER GRAND Model ...................... 212
Another Episode with SABER GRAND ..................................... 217
Fostering Campaign Models ................................................... 223
The Trade-Offs Between Numbers, Yield, and CEP in
Hard-Target Kill ......................................................... 226
The Trade-Off with “Soft” Area Targets ................................... 229
Calculus of the Attrition of Agents in a Battle .............................. 230
Basic Principles ................................................................ 232
Scaling Up ..................................................................... 234
Heterogeneous Engagements ................................................ 235
Future Applications ........................................................... 239