DTIC ADA487760: Ignoring the Innocent: Non-combatants in Urban Operations and in Military Models and Simulations

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Ignoring the Innocent
Non-combatants in Urban
Operations and in Military Models
and Simulations
Yuna Huh Wong
This document was submitted as a dissertation in March, 2006 in partial
fulfillment of the requirements of the doctoral degree in public policy analysis
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iii
Preface
This dissertation is submitted to the Frederick S. Pardee RAND
Graduate School (PRGS) in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree
of Doctor of Philosophy in Policy Analysis. It was funded by the Arroyo Center
for Army Research at the RAND Corporation. Opinions expressed in this
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v
Contents
Preface .....................................................................................................................iii
Figures ....................................................................................................................vii
Tables .....................................................................................................................ix
Acknowledgments..................................................................................................xi
Abbreviations........................................................................................................xiii
1. Introduction......................................................................................................1
Non-combatants in Recent Operations.........................................................1
Non-combatants in Military Models and Simulations................................4
Research Approach..........................................................................................8
Dissertation Organization...............................................................................9
2. Methodology and Literature Review..........................................................11
Case Study Methodology..............................................................................11
Agent-based Modeling..................................................................................13
ABM and Military Modeling........................................................................24
Applicability of ABM for Non-combatantBehavior.................................36
ABM and Predictive Modeling.................................................................38
ABM and Exploratory Modeling..............................................................41
Practical Issues and Alternatives to ABM...............................................43
3. Case Studies....................................................................................................50
Operation Just Cause (Panama)...................................................................50
Operation Continue Hope (Somalia)...........................................................54
Operation Iraqi Freedom (Iraq)....................................................................57
Types of Non-combatant Behaviors............................................................68
4. Populating Models with Non-combatants.................................................74
Importance of Scale........................................................................................75
Population and Population Density............................................................78
Introducing Heterogeneity...........................................................................89
Changes Over Time.......................................................................................94
Example: Civilian Casualty Model..............................................................96
5. Simple Non-combatant Behaviors.............................................................109
Adding Simple Movement..........................................................................109
BackgroundMovement...............................................................................111
Simple Reactions to Combat.......................................................................117
Simple Behaviors and Agent-based Modeling.........................................120
Example: Hypothetical FCS Model............................................................126
6. Complex Non-combatant Behaviors.........................................................133
Adding Complex Behavior.........................................................................133
Complex Behaviors......................................................................................136
vi
Complex Behaviors and Agent-based Modeling....................................144
Example: Hypothetical Looting Model.....................................................154
7. Conclusions..................................................................................................165
Layered Framework for Modeling Non-combatants..............................165
Policy Implications......................................................................................167
Policy Recommendations...........................................................................174
Bibliography..........................................................................................................179
vii
Figures
Figure 1-1. Sample Urban Combat Scenario in JCATS (Few Civilians)...............6
Figure 1-2. Layered Approach to Non-combatant Agents in Military Models and
Simulation..............................................................................................................9
Figure 3-1. Aerial Photograph of Baghdad (April 2, 2003)..................................59
Figure 3-2. Modeling Non-combatantBehavior....................................................70
Figure 4-1. Population Density of Panama, 1980...................................................81
Figure 4-2. Population Density of Iraq, 2000..........................................................82
Figure 4-3. Map of Baghdad, 2003...........................................................................84
Figure 4-4. Map of Mogadishu.................................................................................84
Figure 4-5. Aerial Photograph of Mogadishu........................................................93
Figure 4-6. Expected Building Damage from Blast Overpressure......................99
Figure 4-7. Blast Effects From a 1 Kg TNT Explosion.........................................100
Figure 4-8. Satellite Image of Leadership Strike in Basra...................................103
Figure 5-1. Background Behaviors........................................................................111
Figure 5-2. Crowd Around U.S. Serviceman During Operation Iraqi Freedom
.............................................................................................................................113
Figure 5-3. U.S. Fliers Aimed at Civilians During OIF.......................................115
Figure 5-4. U.S. Fliers Aimed at Iraqi Troops at the Beginning of OIF, 2003..116
Figure 5-5. Moving Between Destination Points.................................................122
Figure 5-6. Individual Rule Sets Versus Emergent Behavior for Background
Non-combatantBehaviors...............................................................................123
Figure 5-7. Illustration of Noncombatant Effects of Dropping Four 250-Pound
JDAM With 3-Meter TLE.................................................................................130
Figure 6-1. Civilian Interactions with Combatants.............................................138