DTIC ADA469156: National Security and the Threat of Climate Change

0.57 MB·English

by  Defense Technical Information Center

SecurityAndClimate.cna.org
Report Documentation Page Form Approved
OMB No. 0704-0188
Public reporting burden for the collection of information is estimated to average 1 hour per response, including the time for reviewing instructions, searching existing data sources, gathering and
maintaining the data needed, and completing and reviewing the collection of information. Send comments regarding this burden estimate or any other aspect of this collection of information,
including suggestions for reducing this burden, to Washington Headquarters Services, Directorate for Information Operations and Reports, 1215 Jefferson Davis Highway, Suite 1204, Arlington
VA 22202-4302. Respondents should be aware that notwithstanding any other provision of law, no person shall be subject to a penalty for failing to comply with a collection of information if it

does not display a currently valid OMB control number.
1. REPORT DATE 2. REPORT TYPE 3. DATES COVERED
2007 N/A -
4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE 5a. CONTRACT NUMBER
National Security and the Threat of Climate Change
5b. GRANT NUMBER
5c. PROGRAM ELEMENT NUMBER
6. AUTHOR(S) 5d. PROJECT NUMBER
5e. TASK NUMBER
5f. WORK UNIT NUMBER
7. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES) 8. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION
CNA Corporation Alexandria, VA REPORT NUMBER
9. SPONSORING/MONITORING AGENCY NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES) 10. SPONSOR/MONITOR’S ACRONYM(S)
11. SPONSOR/MONITOR’S REPORT
NUMBER(S)
12. DISTRIBUTION/AVAILABILITY STATEMENT
Approved for public release, distribution unlimited
13. SUPPLEMENTARY NOTES
The original document contains color images.
14. ABSTRACT
15. SUBJECT TERMS
16. SECURITY CLASSIFICATION OF: 17. LIMITATION OF 18. NUMBER 19a. NAME OF
ABSTRACT OF PAGES RESPONSIBLE PERSON

a. REPORT b. ABSTRACT c. THIS PAGE SAR 35
unclassified unclassified unclassified
Standard Form 298 (Rev. 8-98)
Prescribed by ANSI Std Z39-18
To the reader,
MILITARY ADVISORY BOARD During our decades of experience in the U.S. military, we have addressed many
national security challenges, from containment and deterrence of the Soviet
General Gordon R. Sullivan, USA (Ret.)
nuclear threat during the Cold War to terrorism and extremism in recent years.
Chairman, Military Advisory Board
Global climate change presents a new and very different type of national
Admiral Frank “Skip” Bowman, USN (Ret.) security challenge.
The CNA Corporation is a nonprofit institution that conducts in-depth, independent research and
Over many months and meetings, we met with some of the world’s leading
analysis. For more than 60 years we have helped bring creative solutions to a vast array of complex Lieutenant General Lawrence P. Farrell Jr., USAF (Ret.)
climate scientists, business leaders, and others studying climate change. We
public-interest challenges. For more information, visit www.cna.org.
Vice Admiral Paul G. Gaffney II, USN (Ret.) viewed their work through the lens of our military experience as warfighters,
planners, and leaders. Our discussions have been lively, informative, and
General Paul J. Kern, USA (Ret.)
very sobering.
Admiral T. Joseph Lopez, USN (Ret.)
Carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere are greater now than at any time in
CONTACT INFORMATION: Admiral Donald L. “Don” Pilling, USN (Ret.) the past 650,000 years, and average global temperature has continued a steady
Noel L. Gerson rise. This rise presents the prospect of significant climate change, and while
Admiral Joseph W. Prueher, USN (Ret.)
Vice President, Communications and Public Affairs uncertainty exists and debate continues regarding the science and future extent
The CNA Corporation Vice Admiral Richard H. Truly, USN (Ret.) of projected climate changes, the trends are clear.
4825 Mark Center Drive • Alexandria, Virginia 22311 The nature and pace of climate changes being observed today and the
General Charles F. “Chuck” Wald, USAF (Ret.)
[phone] • [email protected] consequences projected by the consensus scientific opinion are grave and pose
General Anthony C. “Tony” Zinni, USMC (Ret.) equally grave implications for our national security. Moving beyond the arguments
of cause and effect, it is important that the U.S. military begin planning to address
APPROVED FOR DISTRIBUTION:
these potentially devastating effects. The consequences of climate change can affect
the organization, training, equipping, and planning of the military services. The U.S.
military has a clear obligation to determine the potential impacts of climate change
on its ability to execute its missions in support of national security objectives.
Sherri Goodman
Climate change can act as a threat multiplier for instability in some of the
Executive Director, Military Advisory Board
most volatile regions of the world, and it presents significant national security
General Counsel, The CNA Corporation
challenges for the United States. Accordingly, it is appropriate to start now to
help mitigate the severity of some of these emergent challenges. The decision
This document represents the best opinion of The CNA Corporation at the time of issue.
to act should be made soon in order to plan prudently for the nation’s security.
The increasing risks from climate change should be addressed now because they
will almost certainly get worse if we delay.
Copyright 2007 The CNA Corporation LETTER OF TRANSMITTAL• SecurityAndClimate.cna.org 3
THE MILITARY ADVISORY BOARD
GENERAL GORDON R. SULLIVAN, USA (Ret.)
Former Chief of Staff, U.S. Army
Chairman, Military Advisory Board

ADMIRAL FRANK “SKIP” BOWMAN, USN (Ret.)
Former Director, Naval Nuclear Propulsion Program;
Former Deputy Administrator-Naval Reactors, National Nuclear Security Administration
LIEUTENANT GENERAL LAWRENCE P. FARRELL JR., USAF (Ret.)
Former Deputy Chief of Staff for Plans and Programs, Headquarters U.S. Air Force

VICE ADMIRAL PAUL G. GAFFNEY II, USN (Ret.)
Former President, National Defense University; Former Chief of Naval Research and Commander,
Navy Meteorology and Oceanography Command

GENERAL PAUL J. KERN, USA (Ret.)
Former Commanding General, U.S. Army Materiel Command

ADMIRAL T. JOSEPH LOPEZ, USN (Ret.)
Former Commander-in-Chief, U.S. Naval Forces Europe and of Allied Forces, Southern Europe

ADMIRAL DONALD L. “DON” PILLING, USN (Ret.)
Former Vice Chief of Naval Operations

ADMIRAL JOSEPH W. PRUEHER, USN (Ret.)
Former Commander-in-Chief of the U.S. Pacific Command (PACOM) and Former U.S. Ambassador to China

VICE ADMIRAL RICHARD H. TRULY, USN (Ret.)
Former NASA Administrator, Shuttle Astronaut and the first Commander of the Naval Space Command

GENERAL CHARLES F. “CHUCK” WALD, USAF (Ret.)
Former Deputy Commander, Headquarters U.S. European Command (USEUCOM)

GENERAL ANTHONY C. “TONY” ZINNI, USMC (Ret.)
Former Commander-in-Chief of U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM)
SHERRI W. GOODMAN
Executive Director, Military Advisory Board
The CNA Corporation
Study Team
David M. Catarious Jr.
Ronald Filadelfo
Henry Gaffney
Sean Maybee
Thomas Morehouse
THE MILITARY ADVISORY BOARD • SecurityAndClimate.cna.org 3
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS TABLE OF CONTENTS
We are thankful to several people for their support of this effort. Rear Adm. THE MILITARY ADVISORY BOARD 3
Richard Pittenger, USN (Ret.) of the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institu-
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 6
tion, and Dr. Fiona Horsfall of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric
ABOUT THE REPORT 9
Administration provided many valuable insights into climate science and
Voice of Experience: General Gordon Sullivan (Ret.) on Risk 10
reviewed our draft report. Dr. Robert Frosch, former assistant secretary of
GEO-STRATEGIC IMPLICATIONS OF CLIMATE CHANGE 12
the Navy for research and development and former NASA administrator,
Voice of Experience: Vice Admiral Richard H. Truly (Ret.) on Drawing 14
currently at Harvard University, also reviewed our draft report and provided His Own Conclusions
suggestions for improvement regarding the science of climate change. Dr. Kent Voice of Experience: Admiral T. Joseph Lopez (Ret.) on Climate Change 17
and the Conditions for Terrorism
Butts of the Army War College, Dr. Geoffrey D. Dabelko of the Woodrow
Wilson International Center for Scholars, and Franklin D. Kramer, former REGIONAL IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE 19
assistant secretary of defense, reviewed our report and provided valuable Voice of Experience: General Charles F. “Chuck” Wald (Ret.) on Climate Change in Africa 21
Voice of Experience: Vice Admiral Paul G. Gaffney II (Ret.) on Military Research 23
comments on sources of conflict and security issues related to climate change.
and Climate Science
We thank the following persons for briefing the Military Advisory Board:
Voice of Experience: Admiral Joseph W. Prueher (Ret.) on Climate Change in the Pacific 25
Dr. James Hansen, lead climate scientist and director, NASA Goddard Voice of Experience: Lieutenant General Lawrence P. Farrell Jr. (Ret.) on Climate, 26
Institute for Space Studies; Dr. Anthony Janetos of the H. John Heinz III Energy and Battlefield Readiness
Voice of Experience: General Anthony C. “Tony” Zinni (Ret.) on Climate Change, 31
Center for Science, Economics and the Environment; Dr. Richard Moss,
Instability and Terrorism
senior director, Climate and Energy, United Nations Foundation, formerly
Voice of Experience: Admiral Donald L. Pilling (Ret.) on Operational Challenges 33
director of the U.S. Global Change Research Program Office; Mr. Justin
of Climate Change
Mundy, senior advisor to the Special Representative on Climate Change, UK Voice of Experience: General Paul J. Kern (Ret.) on Weather, Logistics, 35
Foreign and Commonwealth Office; Maj. Gen. Richard Engel, USAF (Ret.), and the Causes of War
deputy national intelligence officer for science and technology, National DIRECT IMPACTS ON MILITARY SYSTEMS, INFRASTRUCTURE, 36
Intelligence Council; Mr. Randy Overbey, former president, Alcoa Primary AND OPERATIONS
Voice of Experience: Admiral Frank “Skip” Bowman (Ret.) on Climate Change, Energy, 41
Metals Development; Mr. Kenneth Colburn, of the Center for Climate
and National Security
Strategies; and Dr. Robert Socolow of Princeton University.
FINDINGS AND RECOMMENDATIONS 43
APPENDIX 1: BIOGRAPHIES, MILITARY ADVISORY BOARD MEMBERS 50
APPENDIX 2: CLIMATE CHANGE SCIENCE—A BRIEF OVERVIEW 56
References 61

4 SecurityAndClimate.cna.org TABLE OF CONTENTS • SecurityAndClimate.cna.org 5
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Projected climate change will add to Defense Strategy should include appropriate
tensions even in stable regions of the world. guidance to military planners to assess risks to
The U.S. and Europe may experience mounting current and future missions caused by projected
pressure to accept large numbers of immigrant climate change. The next Quadrennial Defense
The purpose of this study is to examine the In the national and international security
and refugee populations as drought increases Review should examine the capabilities of the U.S.
national security consequences of climate environment, climate change threatens to add
and food production declines in Latin America military to respond to the consequences of climate
change. A dozen of the nation’s most respected new hostile and stressing factors. On the
and Africa. Extreme weather events and natural change, in particular, preparedness for natural
retired admirals and generals have served as a simplest level, it has the potential to create
disasters, as the U.S. experienced with Hurricane disasters from extreme weather events, pandemic
Military Advisory Board to study how climate sustained natural and humanitarian disasters
Katrina, may lead to increased missions for a disease events, and other related missions.
change could affect our nation’s security over on a scale far beyond those we see today. The
number of U.S. agencies, including state and
2. The U.S. should commit to a stronger
the next 30 to 40 years—the time frame for consequences will likely foster political instability
local governments, the Department of Homeland
national and international role to help
developing new military capabilities. where societal demands exceed the capacity of
Security, and our already stretched military,
stabilize climate change at levels that will
The specific questions addressed in this governments to cope. including our Guard and Reserve forces.
avoid significant disruption to global
report are: Climate change acts as a threat multiplier
Climate change, national security, and
security and stability.
for instability in some of the most volatile
1. What conditions are climate changes energy dependence are a related set of global
regions of the world. Projected climate change Managing the security impacts of climate
likely to produce around the world that challenges. As President Bush noted in his
will seriously exacerbate already marginal living change requires two approaches: mitigating the
would represent security risks to the 2007 State of the Union speech, dependence
standards in many Asian, African, and Middle effects we can control and adapting to those
United States? on foreign oil leaves us more vulnerable to hos-
Eastern nations, causing widespread political we cannot. The U.S. should become a more
2 . What are the ways in which these tile regimes and terrorists, and clean domestic
instability and the likelihood of failed states. constructive partner with the international
conditions may affect America’s national energy alternatives help us confront the serious
Unlike most conventional security threats community to help build and execute a plan
security interests? challenge of global climate change. Because
that involve a single entity acting in specific ways to prevent destabilizing effects from climate
3 . What actions should the nation take to the issues are linked, solutions to one affect
and points in time, climate change has the change, including setting targets for long term
address the national security consequences the other. Technologies that improve energy
potential to result in multiple chronic conditions, reductions in greenhouse gas emissions.
of climate change? efficiency also reduce carbon intensity and
occurring globally within the same time frame. 3. The U.S. should commit to global
The Military Advisory Board hopes these carbon emissions.
Economic and environmental conditions in partnerships that help less developed
findings will contribute to the call President
already fragile areas will further erode as food nations build the capacity and resiliency
Bush made in his 2007 State of the Union RECOMMENDATIONS OF THE
production declines, diseases increase, clean to better manage climate impacts.
address to “...help us to confront the serious MILITARY ADVISORY BOARD:
water becomes increasingly scarce, and large As President Bush noted in his State of the
challenge of global climate change” by contrib- 1. The national security consequences of
populations move in search of resources. Union speech, “Our work in the world is also
uting a new voice and perspective to the issue. climate change should be fully integrated
Weakened and failing governments, with an based on a timeless truth: To whom much is
into national security and national
already thin margin for survival, foster the given, much is required.” Climate forecasts
FINDINGS defense strategies.
conditions for internal conflicts, extremism, and indicate countries least able to adapt to the
As military leaders, we know we cannot wait for
Projected climate change poses a serious movement toward increased authoritarianism consequences of climate change are those that
certainty. Failing to act because a warning isn’t
threat to America’s national security. and radical ideologies. will be the most affected. The U.S. government
precise enough is unacceptable. The intelligence
The predicted effects of climate change over The U.S. may be drawn more frequently should use its many instruments of national
community should incorporate climate
the coming decades include extreme weather into these situations, either alone or with allies, influence, including its regional commanders,
consequences into its National Intelligence
events, drought, flooding, sea level rise, retreating to help provide stability before conditions to assist nations at risk build the capacity and
Estimate. The National Security Strategy
glaciers, habitat shifts, and the increased spread worsen and are exploited by extremists. The resiliency to better cope with the effects of
should directly address the threat of climate
of life-threatening diseases. These conditions U.S. may also be called upon to undertake climate change. Doing so now can help avert
change to our national security interests. The
have the potential to disrupt our way of life and stability and reconstruction efforts once a humanitarian disasters later.
National Security Strategy and National
to force changes in the way we keep ourselves conflict has begun, to avert further disaster
safe and secure. and reconstitute a stable environment.
6 SecurityAndClimate.cna.org EXECUTIVE SUMMARY• SecurityAndClimate.cna.org 7
4. The Department of Defense should ABOUT THE REPORT
enhance its operational capability by
accelerating the adoption of improved
business processes and innovative tech-
To better inform U.S. policymakers and the address specific regional security challenges in
nologies that result in improved U.S.
public about the threats to national security Africa, Asia, the Middle East, Europe, and the
combat power through energy efficiency.
from global climate change, the CNA Corpo- Americas. That is followed by a discussion of
Numerous Department of Defense studies
ration, a nonprofit national security analysis the challenges from climate change that can
have found that combat forces would be more
organization, convened a panel of retired senior have a direct impact on military systems and
capable and less vulnerable by significantly
military officers and national security experts operations. We conclude with a set of findings
reducing their fuel demand. Unfortunately,
and conducted an assessment of the national and recommendations related to mitigation,
many of their recommendations have yet to be
security implications of global climate change. adaptation, and preparation—specific actions
implemented. Doing so would have the added
In this context, we define national security to the U.S. government should take in response
benefit of reducing greenhouse gas emissions.
refer to the influence of climate change on to the challenges presented by climate change.
5. The Department of Defense should
geo-strategic balances and world events that Appendices provide background on members
conduct an assessment of the impact on
could likely involve U.S. military forces or of the Military Advisory Board, and very briefly
U.S. military installations worldwide of
otherwise affect U.S. strategic interests summarize the science of climate change and
rising sea levels, extreme weather events,
anywhere in the world. ways in which the earth’s environment may
and other projected climate change
The Military Advisory Board consisted of potentially change.
impacts over the next 30 to 40 years.
retired flag and general officers from all four
Many critical defense installations are located
services, including service chiefs and some who CLIMATE CHANGE AND THE
on the coast, and several strategically important
served as regional combatant commanders SCOPE OF THIS STUDY
ones are on low-lying Pacific islands. Sea level rise
(a regional combatant commander is a four-star Although there is a great deal of agreement
and storm surges will threaten these facilities.
officer who commands all U.S. forces in a given among the world’s climate scientists regarding
Planning and action can make these installations
region of the world). The Military Advisory the overall picture of a changing climate, there
more resilient. Lack of planning can compromise
Board and the study team received briefings is also some disagreement about the extent of
them or cause them to be inundated, compro-
from the U.S. intelligence community, climate future changes.
mising military readiness and capability.
scientists, and business and state leaders. They Regardless of this continuing discussion, the
also traveled to the United Kingdom to meet board’s view is quite clear: The potential conse-
with high-level government and business leaders quences of climate change are so significant that
to learn what actions the United Kingdom is the prudent course of action is to begin now to
taking to address the threat of climate change. assess how these changes may potentially affect
Members of the Military Advisory Board also our national security, and what courses of
presented their own views, based on experience, action, if any, our nation should take.
of the security effects of climate change on This approach shows how a military leader’s
various regions of the world. perspective often differs from the perspectives
This report documents the results of that of scientists, policymakers, or the media. Mili-
effort. We start with a discussion of the tary leaders see a range of estimates and tend
geo-strategic implications of climate change in not to see it as a stark disagreement, but as
the general sense—that is, how climate change evidence of varying degrees of risk. They don’t
can foster instability and affect international see the range of possibilities as justification for
security. We then apply this background to inaction. Risk is at the heart of their job: They
8 SecurityAndClimate.cna.org ABOUT THE REPORT • SecurityAndClimate.cna.org 9
V O I C E S O F E X P E R I E N C E
assess and manage the many risks to America’s
security. Climate change, from the Military
GENERAL GORDON R. SULLIVAN, USA (Ret.)
Advisory Board’s perspective, presents signifi-
Chairman, Military Advisory Board | Former Chief of Staff, U.S. Army
cant risks to America’s national security. Before
ON RISK explaining some of those risks, we touch on an
important scientific point.
Former U.S. Army Chief of Staff Gordon Sullivan During the Cold War, much of America’s
A global average temperature increase of
enjoys a good debate. But he also knows there defense efforts focused on preventing a
1.30F (plus or minus 0.30F) occurred over the
are times when debate must stop and action must Soviet missile attack—the very definition of
twentieth century. But the temperature change
begin. With respect to climate change, he says a low probability/high consequence event.
that time has arrived. Our effort to avoid such an unlikely event was a on its own is not what shapes this security
“We seem to be standing by and, frankly, central organizing principle for our diplomatic and assessment. Rather, it is the impact that
asking for perfectness in science,” Gen. Sullivan military strategies. temperature increases can have on natural
said. “People are saying they want to be con- When asked to compare the risks of climate systems, including:
vinced, perfectly. They want to know the climate change with those of the Cold War, Gen. Sullivan
Habitats
•
science projections with 100 percent certainty. said, “The Cold War was a specter, but climate
Precipitation patterns
•
Well, we know a great deal, and even with change is inevitable. If we keep on with business
Extreme weather events
•
that, there is still uncertainty. But the trend line is as usual, we will reach a point where some of the
Ice cover
very clear.” worst effects are inevitable.” •
Sea level
“We never have 100 percent certainty,” he “If we don’t act, this looks more like a high •
said. “We never have it. If you wait until you probability/high consequence scenario,” he added. Throughout this report, we do not attempt
have 100 percent certainty, something bad Gen. Sullivan shifted from risk assessment to to tie our findings regarding security implica-
is going to happen on the battlefield. That’s risk management. tions to any one particular projection of future
something we know. You have to act with “In the Cold War, there was a concerted effort temperature changes, precipitation changes, or
by all leadership—political and military, national
sea level rise whether due to ocean expansion
“ We never have 100 percent certainty. We
and international—to avoid a potential conflict,”
or ice sheet breakup. Rather, our goal is to
never have it. If you wait until you have he said. “I think it was well known in military
articulate the possible security implications
circles that we had to do everything in our power
100 percent certainty, something bad is to create an environment where the national of climate change and to consider mitigating
steps the nation could take as part of an
command authority—the president and his
going to happen on the battlefield.”
senior advisers—were not forced to make choices overall national security plan.
regarding the use of nuclear weapons.
incomplete information. You have to act based “The situation, for much of the Cold War,
on the trend line. You have to act on your was stable,” Gen. Sullivan continued. “And the
intuition sometimes.” challenge was to keep it stable, to stop the cata-
In discussing how military leaders manage risk, strophic event from happening. We spent billions
Gen. Sullivan noted that significant attention on that strategy.
is often given to the low probability/high con- “Climate change is exactly the opposite. We
sequence events. These events rarely occur have a catastrophic event that appears to be inev-
but can have devastating consequences if they itable. And the challenge is to stabilize things—to
do. American families are familiar with these stabilize carbon in the atmosphere. Back then, the
calculations. Serious injury in an auto acci- challenge was to stop a particular action. Now,
dent is, for most families, a low probability/high the challenge is to inspire a particular action. We
consequence event. It may be unlikely, but have to act if we’re to avoid the worst effects.”
we do all we can to avoid it.
10 SecurityAndClimate.cna.org ABOUT THE REPORT• SecurityAndClimate.cna.org 11
GEO-STRATEGIC IMPLICATIONS
OF CLIMATE CHANGE
One reason human civilizations have grown These changes, and others, may create large
•
and flourished over the last five millennia is that number of migrants . When people cross bor-
the world’s climate has been relatively stable. ders in search of resources, tensions can arise.
However, when climates change significantly
or environmental conditions deteriorate to the When climates change significantly or
point that necessary resources are not available,
environmental conditions deteriorate to
societies can become stressed, sometimes to the
GEO-STRATEGIC IMPLICATIONS
point of collapse [1]. the point that necessary resources are not
OF CLIMATE CHANGE For those concerned about national security, available, societies can become stressed,
stability is a primary goal. Maintaining stability
sometimes to the point of collapse.
within and among nations is often a means of
avoiding full-scale military conflicts. Conversely,
instability in key areas can threaten our security. Many governments, even some that look
•
For these reasons, a great deal of our national stable today, may be unable to deal with these
security efforts in the post-World War II era new stresses. When governments are ineffective,
have been focused on protecting stability where extremism can gain a foothold.
it exists and trying to instill it where it does not. While the developed world will be far better
•
This brings us to the connection between equipped to deal with the effects of climate
climate change and national security. change, some of the poorest regions may be
As noted, climate change involves much affected most. This gap can potentially provide
more than temperature increases. It can bring an avenue for extremist ideologies and create
with it many of the kinds of changes in natural the conditions for terrorism.
systems that have introduced instability among
nations throughout the centuries. THE DESTABILIZING IMPACTS
In this chapter, we consider some of the ways OF CLIMATE CHANGE
climate change can be expected to introduce the
REDUCED ACCESS TO FRESH WATER
conditions for social destabilization. The sources
Adequate supplies of fresh water for drinking,
of tension and conflict we discuss here are
irrigation, and sanitation are the most basic
certainly not solely due to climate change; they
prerequisite for human habitation. Changes in
have been discussed by the national security
rainfall, snowfall, snowmelt, and glacial melt
community for many years. However, climate
have significant effects on fresh water supplies,
change can exacerbate many of them [2].
and climate change is likely to affect all of those
For example:
things. In some areas of the Middle East,
Some nations may have impaired access
•
tensions over water already exist.
to food and water.
Mountain glaciers are an especially threatened
Violent weather, and perhaps land loss due
•
source of fresh water [3]. A modest rise in
to rising sea levels and increased storm surges, can
temperature of about 2° to 4°F in mountainous
damage infrastructure and uproot large numbers
of people.
GEO-STRATEGIC IMPLICATIONS • SecurityAndClimate.cna.org 13
V O I C E S O F E X P E R I E N C E
regions can dramatically alter the precipitation lands. Coupled with population growth, tribal,
mix by increasing the share falling as rain while ethnic, and religious differences, the competi-
VICE ADMIRAL RICHARD H. TRULY, USN (Ret.)
decreasing the share falling as snow. The result tion for land turned violent. Probably more
Former NASA Administrator, Shuttle Astronaut and the first Commander of the Naval Space Command
is more flooding during the rainy season, a than any other recent conflict, Darfur provides
ON DRAWING HIS OWN CONCLUSIONS shrinking snow/ice mass, and less snowmelt to
In some areas of the Middle East,
feed rivers during the dry season [4]. Forty percent
Retired Vice Adm. Richard H. Truly was a space Jim Hansen was first talking about these issues,” he
of the world’s population derives at least half of its tensions over water already exist.
shuttle commander and NASA administrator and said, referring to NASA’s top climate scientist. “But
drinking water from the summer melt of mountain
is a member of the National Academy of Engi- I was focused elsewhere then, and I should have
neering. When he began service as director of the listened more closely. I didn’t become a convert until I glaciers, but these glaciers are shrinking and some a case study of how existing marginal situa-
Department of Energy’s National Renewable saw the data on my own.” could disappear within decades. Several of Asia’s tions can be exacerbated beyond the tipping
Energy Laboratory in 1997, he reminded his “The stresses that climate change will put on our major rivers—the Indus, Ganges, Mekong, Yangtze, point by climate-related factors. It also shows
staff that he would be confronted with a new set national security will be different than any we’ve and Yellow—originate in the Himalayas [4]. If the how lack of essential resources threatens not
of issues. dealt with in the past. For one thing, unlike the massive snow/ice sheet in the Himalayas—the only individuals and their communities but
“I told them that I was unencumbered with challenges that we are used to dealing with, these
third-largest ice sheet in the world, after those in also the region and the international commu-
experience or knowledge of the energy business, will come upon us extremely slowly, but come they
Antarctic and Greenland—continues to melt, it nity at large.
and that I would need their help,” Adm. Truly said. will, and they will be grinding and inexorable. But
will dramatically reduce the water supply of much Worldwide food production will be affected
“I had a pretty steep learning curve.” maybe more challenging is that they will affect
of Asia. by climate change in a variety of ways. Crop
One of the first issues he was asked to consider every nation, and all simultaneously. This is why
was the extent to which fossil fuel emissions were we need to study this issue now, so that we’ll be Most countries in the Middle East and ecologists estimate that for every 1.8°F rise
affecting the climate. prepared and not overwhelmed by the required northern Africa are already considered water in temperature above historical norms, grain
scope of our response when the time comes.” scarce, and the International Water Resource production will drop 10 percent [6].
“ I wasn’t convinced by a person or When asked about his experience twenty-five Management Institute projects that by 2025, Most of the world’s growth in food demand
years ago in space, and how it affects him today,
Pakistan, South Africa, and large parts of India is occurring on the Indian subcontinent and in
any interest group—it was the data
Adm. Truly said, “It does change you, there’s no
and China will also be water scarce [5]. To put sub-Saharan Africa, areas already facing food
that got me.” doubt about it. I have images burned in my mind
this in perspective: the U.S. would have to suffer shortages [6]. Over the coming decades, these
that will never go away—images of the earth and
a decrease in water supply that produces an 80 areas are expected to become hotter and drier [7].
“I was a total agnostic,” Truly said. “I had spent its fragility. I was a test pilot. I was an aviator.
percent decrease in per capita water consumption
most of my life in the space and aeronautics world, I was not an environmentalist. But I do love
and hadn’t really wrestled with this. I was open- the natural environment, and seeing the earth to reach the United Nations definition of “water HEALTH CATASTROPHES
minded.” from space was the experience that I return scarce.” These projections do not factor in climate Climate change is likely to have major implications
“Over the course of the next few years, I started to when I think about what we know now about change, which is expected to exacerbate water for human health. While some impacts, such
really paying attention to the data. When I looked the climate.” problems in many areas. as reduced deaths from cold temperatures in
at what energy we had used over the past cou- “One of the things that struck me on my first day some areas, will be positive, the World Health
ple of centuries and what was in the atmosphere in space is that there is no blue sky. It’s something IMPAIRED FOOD PRODUCTION Organization estimates that the overall impact
today, I knew there had to be a connection. I wasn’t that every human lives with on Earth, but when
Access to vital resources, primarily food and will be negative [8].
convinced by a person or any interest group—it you’re in space, you don’t see it. It looks like there’s
water, can be an additional causative factor of The major concern is significant spreading
was the data that got me. As I looked at it on my nothing between you and the surface of the earth.
conflicts, a number of which are playing out of the conditions for vector-borne diseases, such
own, I couldn’t come to any other conclusion. Once And out beyond that, it looks like midnight, with only
today in Africa. Probably the best known is the as dengue fever and malaria, and food-borne
I got past that point, I was utterly convinced of this deep black and stars.”
conflict in Darfur between herders and farmers. diseases, such as salmonellosis [8]. The decline
connection between the burning of fossil fuels and “But when you look at the earth’s horizon, you
climate change. And I was convinced that if we see an incredibly beautiful, but very, very thin line. Long periods of drought resulted in the loss of in available fresh water in some regions will also
didn’t do something about this, we would be in You can see a tiny rainbow of color. That thin line both farmland and grazing land to the desert. have an impact, as good health and adequate
deep trouble.” is our atmosphere. And the real fragility of our The failure of their grazing lands compelled the supplies of clean water are inextricably linked.
Adm. Truly noted an ironic twist about his path atmosphere is that there’s so little of it.” nomads to migrate southward in search of wa- A health emergency involving large numbers of
to this conclusion. “I was NASA administrator when
ter and herding ground, and that in turn led to casualties and deaths from disease can quickly
conflict with the farming tribes occupying those expand into a major regional or global security
14 SecurityAndClimate.cna.org GEO-STRATEGIC IMPLICATIONS • SecurityAndClimate.cna.org 1155