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DTIC ADA456070: Massachusetts Institute of Technology Security Studies Program, Annual Report 1997-1998 PDF

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Preview DTIC ADA456070: Massachusetts Institute of Technology Security Studies Program, Annual Report 1997-1998

MASSACHUSETTS INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY I -rI~*o ~t~plai.1~~"2· I i,· -· ·, Security Studies Program ANNUAL REPORT 1997-1998 Report Documentation Page Form Approved OMB No. 0704-0188 Public reporting burden for the collection of information is estimated to average 1 hour per response, including the time for reviewing instructions, searching existing data sources, gathering and maintaining the data needed, and completing and reviewing the collection of information. Send comments regarding this burden estimate or any other aspect of this collection of information, including suggestions for reducing this burden, to Washington Headquarters Services, Directorate for Information Operations and Reports, 1215 Jefferson Davis Highway, Suite 1204, Arlington VA 22202-4302. Respondents should be aware that notwithstanding any other provision of law, no person shall be subject to a penalty for failing to comply with a collection of information if it does not display a currently valid OMB control number. 1. REPORT DATE 2. REPORT TYPE 3. DATES COVERED 1998 N/A - 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE 5a. CONTRACT NUMBER Massachusetts Institute of Technology Security Studies Program 5b. GRANT NUMBER 5c. PROGRAM ELEMENT NUMBER 6. AUTHOR(S) 5d. PROJECT NUMBER 5e. TASK NUMBER 5f. WORK UNIT NUMBER 7. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES) 8. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION Security Studies Program Massachusetts Institute of Technology 292 REPORT NUMBER Main Street (E38-600) Cambridge, MA 02139 9. SPONSORING/MONITORING AGENCY NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES) 10. SPONSOR/MONITOR’S ACRONYM(S) 11. SPONSOR/MONITOR’S REPORT NUMBER(S) 12. DISTRIBUTION/AVAILABILITY STATEMENT Approved for public release, distribution unlimited 13. SUPPLEMENTARY NOTES 14. ABSTRACT 15. SUBJECT TERMS 16. SECURITY CLASSIFICATION OF: 17. LIMITATION OF 18. NUMBER 19a. NAME OF ABSTRACT OF PAGES RESPONSIBLE PERSON a. REPORT b. ABSTRACT c. THIS PAGE SAR 40 unclassified unclassified unclassified Standard Form 298 (Rev. 8-98) Prescribed by ANSI Std Z39-18 INTERSERVICE RIVALRY THE WAY IT ONCE WAS COVER "Iron Mike " CrusadingforR ight was sculpted to honor the American Soldier who fought in France during World War I. The Military Governor of Paris asked Frenchman Charles Raphael Peyre to design the statue during the summer of 1918 for the Musee de l'Armee at the Invalides in Paris. In May 1919, it was exhibited at the Exposition des Beaux Arts of the Grand Palaise des Champs-Elysees, in Paris. Marine Private Carl J. Millard, after being wounded twice while serving in a front-line unit in France, was temporarily assigned to a military police unit in Paris. He was selected from 200 soldiers to be the model for the statue which is beautifully detailed, right down to the Marine Corps emblem on the helmet. As the statue was unveiled, Allied Expeditionary Force commander General John J. Pershing stepped up to the front of the podium, looked down on the statue and saw the Marine Corps emblem on the tin hat, atop the statue there with his Springfield rifle and heavy pack. General Pershing did an about face and marched off the podium with his staff. Peyre refused to take the emblem off the helmet and the Army refused the statue. The Chief Paymaster, U.S. Marines, France, Major D.B. Wills, suggested to the Major General Commandant George Barnett on March 24, 1919, the purchase of Crusadingf or Right for use as a memorial to the Marines who had given their lives in World War I. The asking price for the statue was 50,000 francs. The statue was purchased through subscriptions from enlisted men and officers of the U.S. Marine Corps. In March 1920, the Commission on Fine Arts rejected the statue as an adornment in the city of Washington and could not advise Congress to set apart a space for it in one of the city's parks. The statue was moved to the Marine base at Quantico, VA. Three tablets were erected in the memory of the officers and men of the 6'h Machine Gun Battalion, 5th Regiment and th Regiment, United States Marines, "who gave their lives for their country in the World War in 1918" 6 by the Thomas Roberts Reath Marine Post No. 186, American Legion, on November 10, 1921. On December 8, 1921, the statue was dedicated. Cover Photo: Corporal William Chad Williams, USMC Combat Photographer TABLE OF CONTENTS 2 DIRECTOR'S STATEMENT 7 FACULTY 11 SENIOR FELLOWS 12 WORKING GROUPS 13 SEMINARS 18 CONFERENCES AND SYMPOSIA 22 FIELD TRIPS 23 PUBLICATIONS 26 TEACHING 29 DEGREE RECIPIENTS 29 GRADUATE STUDENTS 31 VISITORS AND AFFILIATES SECURITY STUDIES PROGRAM Massachusetts Institute of Technology 292 Main Street (E38-602) Cambridge, MA 02139 Tel: (617) 253-8075 Fax: (617) 258-7858 SECURITY STUDIES PROGRAM he Security Studies Program (SSP) is a graduate-level, research and educational program based at the MIT Center for International Studies. It traces its origins to two initiatives. One is the teaching on international security topics, and most particularly on defense budgeting, that Professor William Kaufmann began in the 1960s in the MIT Political Science Department. The other is the MIT-wide seminars on nuclear weapons and arms control policy that Professor Jack Ruina and Professor George Rathjens began in the mid-1970s. Initially called the MIT Defense and Arms Control Studies Program, SSP's teaching ties are primarily, but not exclusively, with the Political Science Department at MIT. The SSP faculty, however, includes natural scientists and engineers as well as social scientists. Distinguishing the Program is its ability to integrate technical and political analyses in studies of international security issues. Several of the SSP faculty members have had extensive government experience. They and the other Program faculty advise or comment frequently on current policy problems. But the Program's prime task is educating those young men and women who will be the next generation of scholars and practitioners in international security policy making. The Program's research and public service activities necessarily complement that effort. The Center for International Studies is a major unit of the School of Humanities and Social Sciences at MIT and seeks to encourage the analysis of issues of continuing public concern. Key components of the Center in addition to SSP are Seminar XXI, which offers training in the analysis of international issues for senior military officers, government officials, and industry executives; and the MIT Japan Program, which conducts research and educational activities to further knowledge about Japanese technology, economic activities, and politics. MIT SECURITY STUDIES PROGRAM :1: DIRECTOR'S STATEMENT OVERVIEW lame it on democracy and capitalism. Democracy gives us responsive government. Capitali- sm gives us consumerism. Both combine to give us a large middle class and a culture that emphasizes individualism. Continue to follow the arrows as the great balding sage would tell us because they lead to the explanations for America's victory in the Cold War, its certain unwillingness to police the world, its likely withdrawal from Europe, and the approaching dismantling of its super profes- sional military. Eugene Gholz, Allen Kaufman and I have written a wonderful but strangely as yet unpublished paper on how America won the Cold War. Although the paper argues quite convincingly that the war was won be- cause America mastered a set of institutional relationships - civil/military, military/military, military/in- dustry, and military/science and technology - that effectively mobilized the resources needed for the 45 year long and ever more technological struggle with the Soviets, I would admit, and I am sure my collabo- rators would too, that the mobilization was constrained by the popular preference for consumption over taxes, the need to avoid bankrupting the economy and the government. No doubt the ability of Americans to field technologically advanced forces while enjoying the consumer benefits of a middle class life - cars, appliances, a house in the suburbs, and gourmet coffee - wore down the Soviet will to resist and has- tened the collapse of the Evil Empire. We had our cake and could eat it as well. This affluence, without the military prowess, spread to most of Europe and parts of Asia with our protec- tion and assistance. Gradually their societies have become more democratic and more capitalistic, making their citizens more like ours: e.g. addicted to celebrities, hypocritically claiming to be devout environmen- talists while continuing to buy power mowers, somewhat overweight, unwilling to have their children serve in the military, let alone get killed separating this clan from that one on a peacemaking mission. Everywhere the middle class feels unloved, and everywhere it is the most subsidized segment of the popu- lation. In America, the middle class keeps clamoring for tax breaks, but wants untouched Medicare and Social Security which involve large interclass as well as intergenerational transfers that overwhelmingly fa- vor the middle class. In fact, our politicians cannot do enough for the middle class, the class to which nearly all Americans claim affiliation if not true membership. How about another tax subsidy for your children's college education? How about another IRA or 401(k) type plan? How about reducing the inher- itance tax or restoring that home office deduction? If there are cuts in spending then let them be made in the domestic welfare programs and the supposedly huge foreign aid effort. In Europe, the middle class is just getting the full benefits of consumerism, having previously enjoyed many state directed protections as producers and purveyors of goods and services. During the Cold War Europeans concentrated on gilding their social welfare systems, downplaying the threat to the East, and be- ing contemptuous of Americans for not doing the same. Of course, they had the peace of mind provided by three hundred thousand plus American troops stationed in Europe backed up by our substantial defense budget, our technologically advanced weapon systems and an eager Strategic Air Command. 2: MIT SECURITY STUDIES PROGRAM The Japanese government, and to a large A Comparison of Defense Expenditures: NATO Countries 1995 extent those of our other Asian allies, Defense expenditures as a percentage of GDP(M arket price) concentrated attention entirely on eco- Greece 4.6 nomic growth without much of a nod to U.S. 3.9 either their consumers or their certain to Turkey 3.9 U.K. 3.1 grow retirement populations. But with France 3.1 national prosperity came the yearning for Norway 2.9 Portugal 2.7 democracy and consumption. An Asian Netherlands 2.1 middle class is building despite the resis- Italy 1.9 Denmark 1.8 tance of local oligarchies and the recent Belgium 1.7 economic stress Asia has suffered. Germany 1.7 Canada 1.6 Spain 1.5 Not surprisingly, the Europeans and the Luxembourg 0.9 Percent Asians have a continuing fondness for American military protection. The Euro- Total defense expenditures (US$ M) nerant rant an American mannanrl sncl IL-11 V I.t -11 1 l19.1 l111.6. -I1G1~_1, 1. manned NATO to expand Eastward to US-Total U.S. 275,243 contain the chaos of the Soviet disintegra- tinn nA thcL- hath1_r,___mo rooc -ilh- IUI llll LIIAUu UULIISIUIII1 ILUUU;i 3 WIIU France 47,735 flee westward. The Asians see no need Germany 41,906 U.K. 34,086 for an American withdrawal from Japan Italy 20,041 Canada 9,102 and Korea, hoping that the American Spain 8,464 Netherlands 8,181 presence in the region will temper a bud- Turkey _ 6,015 ding arms race among neighbors who are Greece 5,059 Belgium 4,572 recently affluent, but longtime antago- Norway 3,758 Denmark* 3,125 nists. Add the tasks of keeping Saddam Portugal * 2,819 and Iran away from oil rich Saudi Arabia Luxembou1rg1 41 USM illions and the Clinton Administration's desire to SOURSCtEa:t emeonnt t heD efencEes timateDsi rectoraotef DefensPe olicLy,o ndoUn,K M, ay1996. have America lead "The Coalitions of the f-' .Auu t_ -}.r-1-L the -v 4-ni +,;I,-, _f JUUU LU. Lt lall 11..,. WlII; 111)u 3 UI Africa, the Caribbean, the Balkans, and you have a formula for a large (Cold War sized) defense budget and a military that is constantly going places and doing things. Although the American military may have reservations about particular assignments, it very much likes the world wide scope of operations these projects mandate. With them, there is still need for a CINCEUR, a 7th fleet, F-15Cs, air tasking orders, and the 23d MEU. Of course, the end of the Cold War has brought sig- nificant reductions in force levels and a constant parade of scenarios, war games, Joint Staff studies, and service reorganization announcements, but without some real contingencies such as Somalia and Bosnia, the military's rations would be much shorter than they are today. This is likely only a passing interlude. A ten year wind down may be too brief for a 45 year war. Looming ahead are the retirements of the baby boomers preceded by the college and nest building years of their "hot house" children (a wonderful descriptive offered by Barry Posen for the carefully raised offspring of our colleagues and their class). The decisive war of the future will surely be between our middle class and those of our Cold War allies. Both have grown accustomed to being subsidized by the U.S. federal govern- ment. Ours expects subsidized education, unlimited medical services, and the ability to transfer their DIRECTOR'S STATEMENT 3 wealth to their children. The Europeans and Asians member, America entered the Second World War want all the above plus the security offered by a only after it was attacked. How eager will a genera- constantly patrolling, well trained and well tion raised on cable TV and Sport Utility Vehicles equipped American military. They live in bad be to experience directly the gore of noble wars of neighborhoods and benefit greatly from nearly free choice in very far away places? Not much, I be- DIRECTOR'S protection offered by our forces. But if the choice is lieve. STATEMENT between maintaining America's global protection service and domestic entitlement programs, the Of course, not all of my colleagues share fully my American middle class will surely prefer its own opinions. Instead, we have continuing debates on subsidies and will raid a defense budget that de- the contribution of allies, the possibility for coop- fends others more than it defends themselves. erative security arrangements, the likely impact of casualty fears on U.S. foreign ventures, and all the Add the likely unwillingness of the hot house chil- other points that I see so clearly and they apparently dren to suffer the career disruptions and physical do not. I can assure you that none of our fellows or risks of military service and the future seems students suffer penalties for joining the debates clearer. The most popular current movie is "Saving which they are quick to do. Private Ryan," a very bloody recreation of the fight- ing between American forces and the Germans dur- One of the major ways the Security Studies Pro- ing the Second World War. As Edward Rothstein gram explores security policies for the new millen- points out in a New York Times review of war mov- nium is through conferences. This year was a par- ies, in "Ryan" there is no pretense that patriotism ticularly busy one in this regard. Ted Postol and matters. Rather, the justification offered by Captain George Lewis organized an unprecedented set of Miller (Tom Hanks) for undertaking the heroic mis- meetings between Japanese and Chinese experts on sion that is the center of the movie is entirely per- ballistic missile defense to explore the implications sonal - to get back home to his wife. "Ryan," ac- of defense for regional stability. This was followed cording to Rothstein, privatizes patriotism. Re- Don't look now, but these guys have feathers on their hats :4: MIT SECURITY STUDIES PROGRAM tions. Thus we had participation from M.P.R.I. of Croatian fame, Dyn Corp, the current LOGCAP contractor, and Duke Power, which is taking over the energy management chores at Fort Bragg. The key speakers were retired Admiral "Bud" Flanagan, who as CINCLANT worked to prioritize many of the base hous- ing and base management func- tions for the Atlantic Fleet, and Lt. General Schwartz who as Commander V Corps is respon- sible for the heavy combat punch of the U.S. Army and Fort Hood, the home of two armor divisions. The Director contemplates the littoral strategy Especially good presentations by a week-long conference of Russian and Ameri- Miere offered at the conference by our own Jeremy can experts to discuss nuclear weapons reduction S;hapiro and Sandy Weiner. options and the state of Russian forces. These Cam- bridge based meetings explored crucial issues for A,ssociate Director Owen Cote continued his confer- maintaining world peace, but were neglected by ence series on naval warfare missions this year with both the relevant government and the media. one on Precision Strike from the Sea that brought t(ogether security policy specialists with experts in The venue changed to London for a conference on cruise missiles, carrier operations, submarine con- the future of the U.S. and European Defense Indus- s'truction, and operational communications. The dis- tries that we organized in partnership with the Cen- cussion focused on the possibility of options for a tre for European Reform (CER). Attended by se- dteep strike role using naval platforms. The arms nior officers from the UK, France and Germany as control possibilities of such a program were ad- well as executives from major European and diressed by Ambassador Linton Brooks. American defense firms, the conference examined the opportunities for industry restructuring, includ- 1nI the Spring we had two conferences. The Fifth ing cross continent collaboration and the formation A\nnual General James H. Doolittle Conference ad- of a consolidated European weapons development dtressed the future of defense research and had se- and production firm. The conference followed on nnior representation from the Office of the Secretary work that Eugene Gholz and I did for a Council on oif Defense and each of the armed services. Walter Foreign Relations panel and a Social Science Re- Alorrow, the Director of MIT's Lincoln Laboratory search Council project. and the co-chair of a Defense Science Board panel in research was the main speaker. At the confer- Prior to the London sessions, I organized a confer- ence luncheon we heard from RADM Gaffney, the ence in Cambridge on U.S. defense privatization Cihief of Naval Research, who was enjoying his first policies which we did with the assistance of ICF vvisit to MIT and who told us that he was soon to be Kaiser, a leading environmental design and con- dtouble hatted to a research management position in struction firm. The definition of privatization used tlhe Office of the Chief of Naval Operations, both for the conference included combat service support facts that I think are revealing signs of the times - as well as industrial and base management func- TMsIT is less focused on defense research than it once DIRECTOR'S STATEMENT :5:

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