DTIC ADA450305: Central Asia and Its Asian Neighbors: Security and Commerce at the Crossroads

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Rollie Lal
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Central Asia and its Asian neighbors : security and commerce at the crossroads /
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1. Asia, Central—Relations—Asia. 2. Asia—Relations—Asia, Central. 3. Asian
cooperation. 4. Asia—Relations—United States. 5. United States—Relations—Asia.
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Surgut
Kirov Ob’
Russia
Izhevsk Tomsk
Tyumen'
Kama Irtysh
Tobol Novosibirsk
Ufa
Penza Chelyabinsk Omsk Barnaul
Samara Petropavl
Volga Magnitogorsk Esil
Ural Qostanay Koksnetau Katun’
Pavlodar
Oral
Esil Astana
Zhayyq Aqtobe Arqalyq Oskemen
Oaraghandy
Kazakhstan Ayagoz Zaysan
Atyrau Shalqar
Zhezqazghan Balqash
Aral
Beyneu Lepsi
Leke Taldygorghan
Caspian Aqtau ASeraal Qyzylorda Balkhash lle Yining
Sea Syrdariya Shu Almaty
Nukus Kuqa
Dashhowuz UUrgzabncehkistan TSahsyhmkkeenntt KyrgyBizshskteakn Tarim He
Baku Turkmenbashi
Turkmenistan BukhoroSamarqaKnhdujand Osh
Ashgabat Charjew Qarshi Dushanbe China
Amu Darya Tajikistan
Mary
Tehran
Mashhad Mazar-e Sharif
0 200 400 km
Iran Kabul 0 200 400 miles
Herat Afghanistan
Islamabad
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Pakistan
Qandahar India
Central Asia

Preface
The countries of Central Asia are greatly influenced by their Asian
neighbors. Much analysis has been put forth on the issue of the rela-
tions between the Central Asian states and Russia, but the countries
to the south and east, including China, Iran, Afghanistan, India, and
Pakistan, also have a powerful but less understood effect on the Cen-
tral Asian states’ security and economic interests.1
This monograph assesses the mutual interests of the Central
Asian states and their Asian neighbors, and considers the implications
of these interests for the United States. It also looks at the role of rela-
tions between the states of the region in this context, and at the role
of multinational organizations such as the Shanghai Cooperation Or-
ganization (SCO). This monograph should be of interest to policy-
makers and analysts involved in international security and U.S. for-
eign policy.
The analysis in this monograph is informed by a yearlong re-
search effort, which included travel to the region and extensive inter-
views with U.S., regional, and global specialists; government officials;
and others. It involved a multidisciplinary team of researchers who
sought to combine their understanding of politics, economics, and
military strategic analysis to bring fresh perspectives to the questions
at hand.
This monograph is one of several reporting the results of the re-
search effort. Other documents address political structures and par-
____________
1 See Burghart and Sabonis-Helf (2004); Oliker and Shlapak (2005).
v
vi Central Asia and Its Neighbors: Security and Commerce at the Crossroads
ticipation; religion, ethnicity, and clans; and economic development.
In addition, a broad overview monograph, U.S. Interests in Central
Asia: Policy Priorities and Military Roles, draws on the material in all
of these assessments to define future requirements and approaches to
the region. Each of these will be published separately, forthcoming
from RAND.
The research reported here was sponsored by AF/XOX and con-
ducted within the Strategy and Doctrine Program of RAND Project
AIR FORCE. Comments are welcome and may be directed to the
authors and to Andrew Hoehn, director of Project AIR FORCE’s
(PAF’s) Strategy and Doctrine Program. Until late 2003, the then-
director of PAF’s Strategy and Doctrine program, Dr. Edward
Harshberger, provided leadership and support. Research for this re-
port was completed in May 2005.
RAND Project AIR FORCE
RAND Project AIR FORCE (PAF), a division of the RAND Corpo-
ration, is the U.S. Air Force’s federally funded research and develop-
ment center for studies and analyses. PAF provides the Air Force with
independent analyses of policy alternatives affecting the development,
employment, combat readiness, and support of current and future
aerospace forces. Research is conducted in four programs: Aerospace
Force Development; Manpower, Personnel, and Training; Resource
Management; and Strategy and Doctrine.
Additional information about PAF is available on our web site at
http://www.rand.org/paf.
Contents
Central Asia......................................................Frontispiece
Preface.......................................................................v
Summary....................................................................ix
Acknowledgments.........................................................xiii
Abbreviations.............................................................xvii
CHAPTER ONE
Introduction.................................................................1
CHAPTER TWO
China ........................................................................3
China’s Uighur Minority....................................................4
Regional Cooperation........................................................6
The U.S. Role................................................................9
CHAPTER THREE
Iran.........................................................................11
Regional Cooperation......................................................13
The U.S. Role..............................................................16
CHAPTER FOUR
Afghanistan................................................................19
The U.S. Role..............................................................22
vii