DTIC ADA439530: Aum Shinrikyo, Al Qaeda, and the Kinshasa Reactor: Implications of Three Case Studies for Combating Nuclear Terrorism

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Aum Shinrikyo, Al Qaeda, and the Kinshasa Reactor. Implications of
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Three Case Studies for Combating Nuclear Terrorism
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Aum Shinrikyo, Al Qaeda,
and the Kinshasa Reactor
Implications of Three Case Studies
for Combating Nuclear Terrorism
Sara Daly, John Parachini, William Rosenau
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PREFACE
Revelations about A.Q. Khan’s global nuclear marketing efforts and
Osama bin Laden’s contact with Pakistani nuclear scientists have raised
concerns about the prospects of terrorists acquiring a nuclear or
radiological weapons capability. During the Cold War, there were few
instances where subnational groups seemed motivated and competent to
acquire such capabilities. Over the past 15 years, terrorist capabilities,
motivations, and opportunities have changed. Potential terrorist
acquisition of a nuclear or radiological weapons capability poses a grave
danger to U.S. national security and to the security of the international
system of nation-states.
The historical record of terrorists pursuing nuclear and radiological
capabilities is small in size, complicated by significant information gaps,
and not well understood. The size of the dataset and the considerable
unknowns about the cases where groups have sought these capabilities
make it difficult to assess the nature of the danger and to anticipate new
developments in the nature of the threat. However, given the potential
consequences of terrorist theft of a nuclear weapon or indigenous
development of a nuclear device—even one employing a crude design
that produces only a small nuclear yield—poses a serious danger that the
United States and other allied nations must take extraordinary measures
to thwart. Developing an effective and comprehensive strategy to prevent
terrorist acquisition of nuclear and radiological weapons capabilities must
begin with a thorough understanding of the historical record of terrorist
efforts and opportunities to acquire these capabilities. The three case
studies described herein were undertaken to contribute to an
understanding of this phenomenon.
This documented briefing is part of a larger project for the U.S. Air Force
entitled “Denying Armageddon: Preventing U.S. Adversaries from
Acquiring Nuclear Weapons.”
The research reported here was sponsored by Brig Gen James M. Shamess,
AF/XOF; Brig Gen David E. Clary, AF/XOH; and Maj Gen (Sel) Robert L.
Smolen, AF/XON. Work was conducted within the RAND Project AIR
FORCE PAF-Wide program with oversight assistance from the Strategy
and Doctrine and Aerospace Force Development programs. The analysis
and recommendations should be of interest to the U.S. Air Force, the other
military services, and to the many interagency actors engaged in trying to
prevent the spread of nuclear weapons.
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CONTENTS
Preface...........................................................................................................iii
Summary.....................................................................................................vii
Acknowledgments......................................................................................xi
Introduction...................................................................................................2
Case Study 1: Aum Shinrikyo’s Attempt to Acquire a Nuclear
Capability..............................................................................................5
Case Study 2: Al Qaeda’s Attempts to Acquire a Nuclear
Capability............................................................................................22
Case Study 3: Smuggled Nuclear Material from the Kinshasa
Research Reactor................................................................................54
Observations................................................................................................68
Bibliography.................................................................................................71
v

SUMMARY
Even before the 9/11 attacks on the United States, national security officials
had grown increasingly concerned about the potential for terrorists to
acquire unconventional weapons or devices. Denying terrorists access to
nuclear materials and components has been a particularly urgent priority,
given the enormously destructive potential of terrorists armed with a
nuclear weapon or an improvised nuclear device. To provide an empirical
basis for policymaking, this documented briefing explores attempts by
nonstate actors to acquire nuclear materials and to fabricate nuclear
systems.
Three cases were selected for analysis. Although other terrorist groups in
the past have shown interest in acquiring nuclear materials and devices,
the two groups examined in this study, Aum Shinrikyo and al Qaeda,
have demonstrated a commitment unmatched by other organizations. In
addition, a substantial body of open-source material was available,
although some of it was unreliable and contradictory, making absolute
judgments impossible. The case of the disappearance of nuclear fuel rods
from a reactor in Zaire illustrates what might be termed the “supply side”
of the nuclear market and illustrates the pathways that terrorists or
criminals might follow to obtain nuclear material. As with the two other
cases explored here, open source material was available, although in many
instances this information provided only a fragmentary and tentative
account.
Beginning in the early 1990s, Aum, a religious cult with an apocalyptic
ideology, recruited scientists and engineers to help the group acquire
chemical, biological, and nuclear weapons. Aum identified Russia as a
potential source of nuclear weapons, and cult members made numerous
overtures to senior officials and scientists. But despite these entreaties,
Aum was unable to purchase a nuclear weapon. As a result, Aum chose to
focus on building rather than buying a nuclear weapon. Group members
investigated the mining of uranium ore in Australia and used the Internet
to glean sensitive information on nuclear facilities in Russia, the People’s
Republic of China, South Korea, and elsewhere.
Fortunately, none of these efforts bore fruit. This study suggests that two
factors worked against Aum’s nuclear acquisition program. First, the
technical challenges associated with building a nuclear weapon became
apparent to the group’s leadership, which chose instead to devote its
ample financial and other resources to acquiring chemical weapons, such
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