DTIC ADA432692: A Report to the President: Analytic Perspectives on the Science and Technology Issues Facing the Nation

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R
Science and Technology
Policy Institute
A Report to the
President: Analytic
Perspectives on
the Science and
Technology Issues
Facing the Nation
2001
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A Report to the President: Analytic Perspectives on the Science and
5b. GRANT NUMBER
Technology Issues Facing the Nation
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7. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES) 8. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION
Science and Technology Policy Instituite, RAND, 1200 South Hayes St., REPORT NUMBER
Arlington, VA 22202-5012
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a. REPORT b. ABSTRACT c. THIS PAGE UU 49
unclassified unclassified unclassified
Standard Form 298 (Rev. 8-98)
Prescribed by ANSI Std Z39-18
S&TPI Publications
The Science and Technology Policy Institute provides its technical and analytical
support to the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) and
to federal agencies through a variety of mechanisms.These include informal
discussions,formal briefings,short written reports,detailed reports published in
book form,Web sites,and CD-ROMs.Often,a mix of mechanisms is employed for
a particular project,with the final results published in a publicly available report.
Throughout this publication,there are lists of publicly available documents that
S&TPI has produced during the course of its work for OSTP and various
government agencies.Also listed are other RAND reports that are relevant to
science and technology policy.
Inquiries regarding the Institute may be directed to
Helga E. Rippen, M.D., Ph.D., M.P.H.
Director, Science and Technology Policy Institute
RAND
1200 South Hayes Street
Arlington, VA 22202-5012
Phone: [phone] ext. 5351
Web: http://www.rand.org/scitech/stpi
E-mail: [email protected]
The research described in this report was conducted by RAND’s Science and Technology Policy Institute for the
Office of Science and Technology Policy and other federal agencies under contract ENG-9812731.
Director’s Foreword
Advances in science and technology
contribute to America’s economic
growth, quality of life, and national
security. Many of these advances flow opment figures prominently. We do
from government activity—spending this by applying RAND’s strengths—
on research and development (R&D); objective, independent analysis—to
fostering an environment conducive to help inform decisionmakers at the
innovation; and convening the public, highest levels as they frame and imple-
private, and academic sectors to work ment policy.
toward a common goal. Making wise No other policy research organiza-
decisions about science and technology tion has this important mandate or
policy choices is a key to achieving plays this crucial role. Over nearly a
national goals in myriad sectors, from decade of fulfilling this role, S&TPI
health and education to national secu- has developed a core set of capabilities
rity and the uses of outer space. and has used it to address imperative
Many of these decisions take place policy issues. Based on this experience,
within individual agencies and relevant we judge that the need for this mission
committees of Congress. However, continues to grow as the U.S. science
some are of such importance and polit- and technology enterprise becomes
ical salience that they demand the more complex, more interdisciplinary,
attention of the Executive Office of and more international.
the President. While most presidential Under the new director, Helga
decisions are in essence political matters Rippen, who assumed the post in Fall
in that they take into account a wide 2001, the Institute will continue to
range of considerations, they must rely pursue its vital mission.
on a solid understanding of the conse- This Report to the President, man-
quences of alternative courses of action dated by the legislation governing
if they are to be effective. This under- S&TPI, presents some of the key
standing in turn requires expert analy- findings resulting from our activities.
sis of the scientific and technological We present these in a format intended
dimensions of the issues in question not only to report on our activities but
and of the economic and social impacts also to communicate what we have
of alternative policies. found to a wider audience and to
The Science and Technology Policy prompt more general discussion of
Institute (S&TPI) at RAND is char- effective policymaking in this realm
tered by Congress to play a central role of public concern.
in conducting analysis to support presi-
BRUCE DON
dential decisionmaking that affects sci-
Director, FY1996–2001
ence and technology. We inform policy
decisions within the Executive Office Science and Technology
Policy Institute
of the President and across agencies of
government on issues relating to sci- RAND
ence or in which technological devel-
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i S&TPI Report to the President 2001
Contents
Director’s Foreword . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . i
Meeting the Need—Helping Improve Science and Technology Policy Decisions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2
RAND: Applying Analytic Tools to Policy Problems . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4
What Our Analysis Has Found . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4
How We Have Organized This Report . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9
Safety and Security . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10
Protecting Critical Infrastructure . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10
Space, Satellites, and Aviation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13
Public Safety . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16
Continuing Challenges . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19
Education . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19
Health . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24
Energy and the Environment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26
Emerging Governance Issues . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30
Stewardship of the U.S. Innovation System in a Global Context . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30
Managing the Federal R&D Portfolio . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31
Working with Industry and Universities to Meet National Goals . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34
Linking Effectively with Our International Science and Technology Partners . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37
Dealing with Game-Changing Technologies . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40
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Mission Statement
Originally created by Congress in
1991 as the Critical Technologies
Institute and renamed in 1998, the
Science & Technology Policy Institute
is a federally funded research and
development center sponsored by the
National Science Foundation and
managed by RAND. The Institute’s
mission is to help improve public
policy by conducting objective,
independent research and analysis on
policy issues that involve science and
technology for the White House
Office of Science and Technology
Policy and other federal agencies.
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1 S&TPI Report to the President 2001
Meeting the Need
Helping Improve Science and
Technology Policy Decisions
The Science and Technology Policy ment decisionmakers as they consider
Institute (S&TPI) at RAND conducts key policy decisions involving science
research and analysis on policy issues and technology.
related to science and technology for The United States needs analytic
the U.S. government. Established by thinking and advice to illuminate the
Congress in 1991, it is a federally implications of the quickly changing
funded research and development landscape created by advances in sci-
center overseen by the National Science ence and technology. This idea is not
Foundation (NSF). S&TPI’s congres- new. Indeed, science and technology
sional charter specifies a clear man- advisors for the White House can trace
date—to provide independent, their predecessors back to the 1800s,
objective analysis to support the White and most other developed countries
House Office of Science and Technol- have institutes similar to S&TPI. But
ogy Policy (OSTP) and other govern- what is new is the nature of the
research and analysis applied to meet
the need. Incorporating not only scien-
tific and technical knowledge but also
such diverse disciplines as economics,
statistics, computer science, risk analy-
sis, organizational theory, and cost-
benefit analysis, S&TPI provides a
unique perspective for policymakers.
Through this policy-analytic research
and through the consultation activities
it conducts within a national and inter-
national framework, S&TPI identifies
opportunities, explores the implications
and consequences of policy decisions
and scientific advances, and evaluates
S&TPI often acts as a gateway into RAND for international cooperation. Here, Michael Rich,
the impact of government programs.
RAND's executive vice president, and the S&TPI leadership team meet with Dr. Kwang Nham
Kang, president of STEPI, S&TPI's sister organization in Korea.
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It helps to improve decisionmaking
through direct advice and analytic rigor In its early years,RAND pioneered several In the realm of science and
analytic methodologies—linear and dynamic technology,RAND researchers
in a timely fashion.
programming,mathematical modeling and made seminal contributions to
The congressional charter for simulation,network theory,cost analysis— digital computing and artificial
that are now essential features of the policy intelligence:
S&TPI also requires that “the Institute
analyst’s tool kit.
• RAND developed the first on-
shall submit to the President an annual
line,interactive computer
report on the activities of the Institute system,the JOHNNIAC Open
under this section.”1This Report to the Shop System.This system was
part of RAND’s work to provide
President was produced, in part, to sat-
the Air Force with a national
isfy the statutory requirement. It is a communications network.
formal report of activities, findings, • RAND analysts laid groundwork
and expertise. But it is also intended to for America’s space program by
developing the first successful
be more. The very nature of S&TPI’s
reconnaissance satellites and
mission means that the problems it is creating a capability for mapping
the moon and several planets in
asked to address are issues of national
the solar system.
concern, necessarily reaching into the
• RAND researchers developed
deliberations of the nation’s foremost a series of analytic techniques
RAND’s JOHNNIAC was the first on-line,
public authorities. Such problems interactive computer system. ranging from the “Delphi”
method of obtaining expert
invariably affect a wide range of private
consensus on highly uncertain
concerns as well. Therefore, we further future developments,to the
intend through this report to bring the Linear Programming and
Dynamic Programming tech-
findings from S&TPI studies and activ-
niques for solving complex
ities to the attention of a wider public. mathematical problems.
We aim to improve the quality of pub- • RAND integrated these new
tools and techniques into
lic discussion on issues of national
“systems analysis,”a way of
importance in a manner consistent identifying and often quantifying
with the fundamental charter of the consequences of policy
options that enables decision-
RAND itself.
makers to see the whole picture.
• RAND developed a technique
known as “packet switching”
to help the Air Force develop
fail-safe communications
programs that could survive
a nuclear attack.Packet
switching relays information
across computer networks.Its
technology provides the
foundation for today’s Internet.
• RAND developed RaDiUS,the
first comprehensive database of
federal spending on research
and development.
142USC6686(e) “Annual Reports.”
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3 S&TPI Report to the President 2001
RAND: Applying Analytic Tools to experts and consultants when needed.
Policy Problems As illustrated in the figure, the RAND
This approach is unique to RAND, staff includes researchers with advanced
one of the nation’s premier institutions degrees in engineering, physical sci-
dedicated to the analysis of public pol- ences, operations research, statistics,
icy. Since its inception in 1948, RAND economics, computer science, behav-
has developed sophisticated decision- ioral science, political science, law,
support tools and methods to analyze business, and other fields. Many senior
the nation’s most urgent public policy members of RAND’s staff are nation-
concerns and has delivered sound, ob- ally recognized for their work and
jective advice to government decision- expertise.
makers. RAND has forged long-term RAND researchers are located in
relationships with federal research Santa Monica, California (RAND’s
sponsors while maintaining the inde- corporate headquarters); Washington,
pendence necessary to conduct rigor- D.C.; New York City; Pittsburgh,
ous, objective analysis. Pennsylvania; Leiden, the Netherlands;
To this mission, RAND brings Hamburg, Germany; and Cambridge,
unique characteristics. These include its England. A core group of S&TPI staff
reputation as an objective third party in RAND’s Washington Office main-
and trusted advisor to both govern- tains close contact with OSTP staff and
ment and business. RAND has a pro- agencies of the Executive Branch. This
fessional staff of over 700 scholars, institute’s director meets regularly with
former decisionmakers, and analysts— the OSTP director and staff, NSF staff,
plus access to hundreds of outside and other high-level personnel to dis-
cuss current needs of the Executive
Branch.
RAND’s Key Resource Is Its 700-Member
Professional Research Staff What Our Analysis Has Found
The resources available to address the
Discipline Degrees broad range of science and technology
issues of importance to the United
Social Arts &
sciences letters M.D.s1% Other States are limited. Accordingly, S&TPI
Political science 6% 5% Behavioral 2%
arenlda tiinotnesrnational13% 11%science s Bac1h4e%lor’s fgorecautseesst ocno ntcheorsne tqou tehstei opnrse stihdaetn at roef otfhe
Law &
Panoalilcyysis 8% 10% business Ma3s4t%er’s United States and his senior advisors.
Using policy-analytic methods, many
Pschiyesnicceasl 51%1%% 3% Cscoimenpcuetser Do4c8to%rate developed by RAND—such as model-
No degree 13%
9% ing, technology forecasting, surveys,
Math, operations Economics
research, statistics 7% 8% financial analysis, bibliometrics, and
Life Engineering other tools—the Institute conducts
sciences
work across a broad range of science
and technology policy issue areas.
RAND’s professional expertise is multidisciplinary.
These issues fall into three broad cate-
gories: (1) safety and securityconcerns
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affecting the American public, (2) con- traffic and rapid shifts in the aero-
tinuing challengesfacing the nation, space industry have created a range
and (3) emerging governance issues of new policy concerns. These
that flow from new developments in include the tension between safety
science and technology. In each of and capacity in air transportation
these areas, the Institute has conducted systems, the growing need for space
groundbreaking research and continues operations funding and its impact
to seek new methods for enhancing the on R&D funding for both explo-
decisionmaking process. ration and air safety, and the need to
use available funding in ways that
Safety and Security.The public
most effectively benefit the Ameri-
depends on the government to ensure
can public. Our work in this area
national security and the safety of
has helped to inform major policy
infrastructural systems. Safety and
decisions concerning important
security issues are becoming even more
technologies, such as the Global
pressing as the United States considers
Positioning System (GPS), which in
responses to its current energy crises,
turn have affected industry and
global climate change, and the safety
international policy arenas by clari-
of the national aviation system.
fying the direction of U.S. policy
Research conducted by S&TPI analysts
and adding the stability to policy
has influenced investment in energy-
environments that can enable eco-
efficient technologies for the automo-
nomic growth and international
bile and housing industries, protection
cooperation.
of the information infrastructure, and
options for new satellite and space • Public Safety.Public safety and the
exploration technologies. impact of crime have long con-
cerned America. Technology relates
• Security and Critical Infrastructure
to such concerns in two ways: It
Protection.As the Y2K experience
unfortunately provides new oppor-
illustrated, the rapid spread of infor-
tunities for criminal activity. It also
mation infrastructures raises con-
fosters scientific techniques such as
cerns about networks’ vulnerabilities
DNA analysis that can ultimately
to system failure, enemy sabotage,
improve the fairness and effective-
and criminal misuse. Our work on
ness of law enforcement, the courts,
critical infrastructure protection in
and our corrections system. Institute
both national security and law
work on new forms of criminal
enforcement contexts has helped
activity in cyberspace have illumi-
OSTP establish priorities and shape
nated the potential for such prob-
the research and development
lems as money laundering using
(R&D) budget for infrastructure
cyber technologies and highlighted
protection.
current limitations in dealing with
• Space, Satellites, and Aviation. such problems. In seeking solutions,
Budget constraints and a growing
private-sector role have transformed
the U.S. space enterprise. At the
same time, substantial growth in air
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5 S&TPI Report to the President 2001