DTIC ADA428211: Unexploded Ordnance: A Critical Review of Risk Assessment Methods

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by  Defense Technical Information Center

Unexploded
__ Ordnance

A Critical Review of

Risk Assessment
Methods ;
Unexploded
Ordnance

A Critical Review of
Risk Assessment
Methods

TR-1674-A
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PREFACE

“Ths report documents the findings of a uy thal exaumined meth
ls Sv assessing the vik of unaxpinded ordnance (U8O} an wale
UUons constitiente on former military taining lind. ho report
Iueusts specifically on metheds appsieable to ster an closed, cans
Iurred, and Laauslerning bases that are being nr have already boon
vonverted tu civilian uses, The Atmy hac or yee sarved at acreen
‘ou wilh he asirutaontal Potectfon Agency (BPAY, sate agencies.
land other concern groupe about what process should ke nse ro
tenes risks and evaluate pulonlal responses to sites contarninated
‘with both UXO and munidens conslitueals, This topon J Te Bret re
‘analyze in decal al of the upproaches Lie Aruny has developed co
ranean rinks of UXO ais. Iealba recomumonds uw ie Acmy ea
ive foreach developing risk atscesment prutuodls Ua wl be
snoepfahle tol nf those wnlved et UXO sits

‘The reporeshowld incerear anyone invalwad in the ernserufwoiary
‘tes urider the Bace Realignment and Closure (BRAC) prugraun ace.
vwith managemers of the Formerly Uilized Detense Stes (FUDSi,
AlLaough the epor was waren for che Army, vail alt he of roe
interest lo dhe Deparment af Defense DeDi, the FPA, the Depart
ravot of dhe Inltiug, state zegulators, and eftlzen groups hneolsed at
BRAC and FUDS sles In addltton, aspects of this repart shout
inorst may and Dab patteyuaakers involved in the plamnig of
sible Future base lasure rons,

“This work waz spo2pored by Uw Aisslant Chef of Stat fe Fast
tion Management, United Stas Arca. ‘hu resvarch was conducted
inthe Miltary Logistics Progrars of tho RAND Auroyo Cente, fed
Jy asc of espe Onfaance

ccally (anded research and development genter spansored by Die
US. Ate

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CONTENTS

Pretiee
Figures

ables

Swuanssay
Acknowledgments
Abhreviatins

Chapter Cine
INTRONIICTION
Study Tas
Stanly Meshes
How This Nepor Ts Ovganined
Categories of UXO sites
‘Number of USO Shes
Suurees aid Typesof USO.
leks fon 1X0 Sos
THXC asec und Remove Process
Fins tn Scalar 8X0 fish Ansan. Process

Cagter Ten
POUINSTNL.FOW A RISK-RASED APTROACHS
TOO MESON
‘Matis ese Asana?

LUnlog of kk assecarent
Potcalabappleations ose wsasernen 90730
robles

dabere
Bled Loaded Ordnance

Challenges nf Using Rik Assessment for JO Sites
Cited for an Fifersive Risk assessinent Methor!

Goaelusions

(chapter Hhzee
FRVLULSLION OF EXISTING METHODS
TOM PKC) RISK ASSLSSBIENT
Overview nf Existing Meaods
Tixended Uses
lsh Sourees, Vata Requirements nd Onripst
itola Foran Bective Method
{tern Mange Rule Risk Melhodo}ngy
Key Features
Description
Risk Caleutalan Method

Implemeptarin Features
‘Conummieatan Fesenres
Coneinsians

‘ondnance nel Faplosivos Cost ifeetvenese Risk Fol
‘ay Peanires . .
Deseripsien
lek Cafanlarion Mecho
‘eelncal Movtels snd Assuisp ons «
unplementation Fests :
Conunuricaten Restores
Conclaslons

isk assescment Che
‘ney Coates
Desoriprion
lige Grlemarion Featuees
Implementation Features
‘Cammnnication Fealates
Eanetasiona

‘adnan and Explosives iiskimpse nals
ey Fosters :

Tiaceription

Tsk Calculation Peaiues |

Troplementetion Foatues

Camnmnication Features

Eorclasionn. :
[Natwratand Cultural Resources Banke.

NHMBeII9seeReea
ey Heatuces
Deserptign
Fisk Caleuluiou Heatues
Inplenreutalion Feats
Communication Lealures
Conclusions

sueamnar

chaprer tae
‘OTHER FRRRRA. Is ASSESSMENT MLIL.ODS
Potkeing tes Ras On Rik
ae Rr Se Eralomion Pint
Brant Ranking pee
Err con Pity Stent

Tieselaping Quantrative Risk Lamas for Specie Sites +

Tsk Accrsamene Coidance fur Superiund
Feologina isk Assentment Guidanuy for Supettund
[Ptebatiistic Risk Aanesemint NRC. NASA, and FSA)
Safery assessment for Feplosior. Risk

_Assostag Multiple sk Fra Panes

vung Ueicevtntg in Risk Seimatet

Standurdizig lhe sk Assestment Panes

Working with Staklolders

Developing [nun Audong,Stkeho ders

CConciasioms

Chapter Five
CONCTUSIONS AND RECOMMESDALIENS
Fecnmmenced Process tor Piuridzaliont

ranase Description
(Oversighe by Technical Heview Board and adilsory
Comminee
Two Liss, Based on Farad Use
ovutumoaded Site Specific Risk Astessmuene Process
‘Deseriptioa of Recommended Approach
Developaaeul of Event and Fant Trees
(Oversight by a Tochaical Review os
Summary of Recommendatlons

Referencen

100
Joe
108
vt

35
Fe)

rr)
1a
1353
136
137
as
1

ua
FIGURES

1.1, once HE Moria ound al Foot MeClellan 8
12. Sourching for UXO al Fort Ord 0
TR Hsample ROC Curve from Held Teal ef EMI Systems

ar For Grd (1. f-footseucch rast 2
1a, Foarmple ROC Curve from Fold Test of EM Systems

at Tort Oe (93-frot search rads os
1.3, Example of Process Prapnsed by Stato Regulators for

Cleanup ofa UXO Site... a

Classic Lxerate ofDose-Response Curves for Thee

(Chemical Thal Can Cause Cancer a
22, Parmer of Groandwacer Coulaenianuis a Ihe

Massarhusns Military Reservation. 2
8.1. Riles tor Determining the Accessbity Hector in be

TRAM Faplosives Safety Rik Tool | al
82. Rules tor Determining the Ovorel fzaed Factor

the TRAM Frplasives Safety Risk Too) 2
33. Rules or Determining the Exposure Faciurin tie

TRSM Faplosives Safe Bik Too! a
444, TRSM Tes for Determining the Feploriven Sacer isk

Uf aURD Site, ona Seale of Ato 2.» 4

Input Facts aud Res for Deteviining the TRAM

YYalue for ure ALelt THsk 4
346, Inu Factors nul Ambuclated Output for TEM
Feolngical isk Toul 4“
4.1, Hime Diagram Shawn lupus Wad Oulpuuua Die
Felavive BME Sire Fvaluation wo
42, ARSE Maris fo Assigning Site Senres ny

43, AGS Risk Assessment Steps 102
st
82.

cle Palsy for Bxponore to Contaainanes
Ferm a Waste Site, as Dustaced i RAGS

Frent Truc Shoning Posstble Seenarios After Three
Spins ofa Pair Cui

Event Tree Shivwing Possiie Scenatios Aer
Hlamnmnatte guid in edostrat Faery Catches Fire
Exarape ofa Taule Tree User in Assess Kiss at the
“Tonle Chemical Agent Dispose] Faciey
Camtvintors us the Average Fable Facaity isk D ae
“Th Chernin! Weapons Siotage and Pigposad at he
‘Tonele Chemin Aout Disposal Faciiy
Recommended Two-stage Puottizacion Process
‘Summary of Recomended Puovidzation Proce