DTIC ADA426683: The Effects of Equipment Age on Mission-Critical Failure Rates: A study of M1 Tanks

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by  Defense Technical Information Center

THE EFFECTS OF
EQUIPMENT AGE

ox Misston-CRiTiCAL

FarLurg Rares

fai Tanks

ERIC PELTZ
LSA COLABELLA
BRIAN WH LIAMS

PATRICIA M. BOREN
EQurIPMENT AGE
on Mrsston-Crr
Farure Rates

CAL

4 Stusty of fa Tans

PRIC PELTZ
usa couse
cia) WILLIAMS

DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT A,
Approved fer Public Release
Uistribution Untinited

20041008 316

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PREFACE

‘Due w beget limir, the serves ees eLosuuy Army voupen tems
are being extevde. There i 4 widspevtd baie thatthe reaaling
Ineraasea in feet ages aro ur will bo-ereuli roading and cost
srablems. The Any has Userufore ached a progrars to reba
and selectively upgrily dda sper, manyof whieh crrtently es
ceed Meet age Lurgots ‘bis program ts knosen aa recapyealialion
Brcary,

However ital recapitalization nlm combined itt invescments it
dust eyuipmeot have strained the Amy Budget, and couple
ECAP of eeront syed tees has heen found unsfontable rhs. the
Ullice 0° he Deputy Chiet of taf G-8 Uaogiamn), die Oiics a thr
Duyuly Chiet nf Sat, G-3 ‘Operations and Plann, ue OM of the
Depuly Chief of staf, -< Tagtetes), the Olive of Lc ssh! Se=
eure nf Ihe Army tar Acquisition, Logisics, und Technolgy
(OASALSIT?, end the Army Materiel Cominmaud (AMC ha: horn
“nninicyeeh syareme foe type auld partion of th lsc shoul he
ecapituvaed end ening shat thas cenewal proces sul involve
id extent af wark foreach “overhaul”, Avcoringly, QASAIAT TV ia
Sponstring RAND strove Center iesearch cat bow eye age
alfoecs readiness and tesoultee uxquiseinents, un ail avalysen in
supper oF HEGAP decisions,

This repart device one euzngonent of is say: an assesir ant
the relationship be.weun lah ago ace the minsion-criiel fale
tae for the MIL Alums 20k Hud:ngs skovld be of ierest to eo
some planes layislics analysand weapon mestem analyst,
teat goon ent la ate

‘his wesceschs has eos cyuuductod lo the Miitaey Cagis Program
of RAND array Gunter a Zeal funded research arc evelog-
‘ens eanterspamnred be Hue United Skies uns

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CONTENTS

Prete Hi
Vignes vii
sable, a
Smunacy
Aekaorstedgrents si
‘aasery ai
hapa One
TSTRODIICTION 1
ChaprerTiso
MTTODOLOGY 8
Tawa Sources 8
Sample Chases 4
Measures n
Tank Study Varabtes 1
System Falhures "
Aue M
‘Accumulated Veage Doing the Suay Peri ica
‘pings : "7
eatin 18
Suheyseem Staak arables Me
‘ea fetinement Tecluiquss 9
Tecusion nf Observations 19
Imputatint 19

Amaljaee 2
“Tam Snes Analysis
Subsyatens Stay Analyte

Chapter zee
RFAUITS
Tak sty Tesh
Sebsystert Stud Resets
‘ivexpretavon of Susie els
Rehnild Wrscs Ungrade Candidates
TheTin Beran Age-Falare Relationships ad Pat
Senstely Analy Resale
“Atesnati Inputafion Appraach
‘Audlanal Canteal Variable or Odamecsr Rese
‘Atesuathe Regression Techniques inthe Tank Seudly
‘Rtoutstive Regesaton Teshniqpes nthe Stosesrem
‘sluly soos

Chapter Pour
TPLICATIONS,

Appendic

A. GFNFRA, DRSCRIPTIONS OF SIATISIICS USELI

B,DISTRIRUTION OF ATURE DATA

. CkOSS VALIDATION OF TANESTHDY MODEL

D, PLUIS DF SUBSESTEMS PRFTACTRD MEAN RATIUIRES
BYAGLAND USAGE

biblingraphy
FIGURES

11. Llszard Functions with Peammmeed Wear ou

Heyions. nr
12 Llczard Funedioas Wchout Pronannesd Weaedul
Regions. 1
21. Nuuber of Santis af Usage Data por Tauk by
Lneation 12
22. Disutberion of ank age by Teal 12
23. MIAT Age Histagiam, 3
24. MIA2 Age Hisingram 1B
25. Diwbvrion of nk Voge by Lacativa Is
2A Dir bevien ofTalia MIAL Glumoier Reading te
Age 6
22. Die betien Toil 142 Gdumnouer Readinga tae
Age +

1, Predicioe Muanabailurcrfover 180 days) hyTanke Age | 28
83, Prolilu! Mean Haines hy gear Fastin J

vel 98 perce Camfience Rava 1A dey, tote =

5 hum) 2
23, Prodictee tea Failore fw 1tidigs) Uy au

Usiue 0
34, Proliciee Maan Failoree at Second Tier Subsystum:

by Age Laearion 1, 18 days) 8

35, Predicted Mean Tive CoitolFalusus by fae fr the
MIA‘s, WI ADa, ard Conuiliut of MALS and
W1A2¢ T 9eaon 1, Leda) “
BA. Predicted Moa Tuiluaes uf Socomd-tise Subayarenna
bby Hsoge Locaiou 1 = dns 6
prey

1 Age eon oe eis Rat

Tora Pars Desogrd lucy Study Period)

per Bulbeystem hy ge

Pazis Domand per Pav Type by Age

Prudievel biaea Part Flutes Versa Tank Age

{haestion 1,780 ys

Prednced Mean Faoree by Ago for Mdsoulic ad

Power Tie Subsystems, Rased am Maleple

Inpunation stodel ocatont 1, 16a)

Preaned Mea Failures by Usage 0 Tiedusle ane

Phaser Tain Sumpstoms sed om eaeliple

Smpiretinn Models Teeatian 1-160 days)

Contin Tngerwal Wes mye fr tuple

Impuarinn and Mesn Impatation Sveral! Tank Stacy

ce?

‘GAM Pavelotel ean Feinios 0 Charis. Hire

Gouuel Harsave, and Poseer Train Sohaystems by
Hetiug 1 10 days)

2 Pesce fdeatve Baus Fy Pose Trin GAM

Cane

115 Perec baie Wats Fo Chass GAM

Can

‘Ns Perea: nf Katt fou ie Canta)

Gant cmv

a5 Pereers Ganev: Rares ir Pes Fa GAME

Carve, vith Eerapalatian Pest Age I

5 Poccont Gantider oe Rer cs Chassic GAM Cus

2x kxttapolatoe Past Sep |

85 Pescosn Conde. Rare fr Fire Conirul GAM

‘Gusve, sith Laciapoltion Past Age 15

Aureate Plo of Hedloted Mean Feihires af Second

Her Sapystemts by Age Location |, 180 days

hats nf Faluse Cata Gvespersion

organic uf allalion FaBure Distdbnaions 3d

Tosa Diaribution in (st Ganaliy Dhslon

Cernparisen uf Talalion Faikie Disttbusions sud

Poicsan Diiburion nit fanuy Cidston

Cornpirisnm of Raration Fuihure Distebutions aud

Poteson Thiam in Ct Taniry wud TstALNOS

Lisieions re hiey

wo
Comparison of Baltalon haley Disetbutiona and

Peiswu Distdbuvon iu nd lofanire Division 2»
Coreparison of Button Face Distrhations and
Voisin Dissbution in 3rd Infantry Dizon —-—

Comparison of Raration Failare Dietritntions aad
Tofaeem Ditriariny in Jet fanny aad se Azmor
Diisions:Euope

Pardiived Bean Hull dadlures by Pack Age
Piedvel Mean Ill ¥ailures by Tack Urge
Predivel Meat Chassis Falanes by Tank Age
Predicted Mean Chassis Fares by'Tank Usage:
relied Mean Power Train Flares hy Tank Age
Predictod Mean Povir'rzta Kaila hy Tank Wrage
Bredictnd Mear Torr Fatimea yTenk ge
Predicted Maw TurnetFathtes by Tank Usege
Dresited Mear Gun Failures hy Tass ge
Dresicted Mear Gun Pailures hy Teas Usage
Dresieted Mear Fire Cpoual Talla uy lik ge
Predicted Mest Tire Conch Failuves Uy Lau Usage
DPreddeted Mes, Le sia ball ues Punk ge
Predicted Mes: Leesa bull ues by Tank Usage
Predicted Mest: Hardstare Failun by'lank Age
Prodiclad Mest Hfardare tailunes by Tak Tage
Prodicled Meer Hydraute Fai ris hy-Tank Age
Prodiciel Meer Hyeiantic Ft cies ny Tak Usage