DTIC ADA422387: The Limits of Transformation: Officer Attitudes Toward the Revolution in Military Affairs Newport papers no. 17

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17
NAVAL WAR COLLEGE NEWPORT PAPERS
The Limits of Transformation
Officer Attitudes toward the Revolution in Military Affairs
NIUTEEDHTSVTAIRTIEBSUS MARI VICTNOARVAILAEWGEALRLOC Thomas G. Mahnken and(cid:3)
James R. FitzSimonds
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The Limits of Transformation
Officer Attitudes toward the Revolution in Military Affairs
Thomas G. Mahnken and
James R. FitzSimonds
NAVAL WAR COLLEGE
Newport,RhodeIsland
Naval War College The Newport Papers are extended research projects that the
Newport, Rhode Island Editor, the Dean of Naval Warfare Studies, and the
Center for Naval Warfare Studies President of the Naval War College consider of particular
Newport Paper Number Seventeen interest to policy makers, scholars, and analysts. Candidates
2003 for publication are considered by an editorial board under
the auspices of the Dean of Naval Warfare Studies.
President, Naval War College
Rear Admiral Rodney P. Rempt, U.S. Navy Published papers are those approved by the Editor of the
Press, the Dean of Naval Warfare Studies, and the President
Provost, Naval War College
of the Naval War College.
Professor James F. Giblin
Dean of Naval Warfare Studies The views expressed here are those of the authors and do
Professor Alberto R. Coll not necessarily reflect those of the Naval War College, the
Department of the Navy, or the Department of Defense.
Naval War College Press
CorrespondenceconcerningTheNewportPapersmaybe
Editor:Professor Catherine McArdle Kelleher
Managing Editor:Pelham G. Boyer addressedtotheDeanofNavalWarfareStudies.Torequest
Associate Editor:Patricia A. Goodrich additionalcopiesorsubscriptionconsideration,pleasedirect
inquiriestothePresident,Code32A,NavalWarCollege,
Telephone: [phone]
686CushingRoad,Newport,RI02841-1207.
Fax: [phone]
DSN exchange: 948 The Newport Papers are edited and prepared by Patricia A.
E-mail: [email protected] Goodrich, Associate Editor, Naval War College Press.
Web: http://www.nwc.navy.mil/press
Printed in the United States of America ISSN Pending
Contents iii
Foreword iv
Acknowledgments v
CHAPTER ONE Innovation and the U.S. Officer Corps 1
CHAPTER TWO Project Methodology 7
CHAPTER THREE Attitudes toward the Emerging RMA 17
CHAPTER FOUR Impact of the Emerging RMA on
Dominant Weapons 27
CHAPTER FIVE Emergence of New Ways of War 37
CHAPTER SIX Impact of the Emerging RMA on the
Character of War 45
CHAPTER SEVEN Impetus for Change 61
CHAPTER EIGHT Character and Depth of Change
Required 71
CHAPTER NINE Trends in Officer Attitudes 91
CHAPTER TEN Conclusions and Implications 105
APPENDIX A Survey Instrument 115
APPENDIX B Focus Group Survey Instrument 123
Notes 127
About the Authors 131
Titles in the Series 133
Foreword
IntheshadowoftherecentIraqwar,itiseasytoacceptthat“growthanddiffusionof
stealth,precision,andinformationtechnology”hastrulyheraldedthelong-awaited
revolutioninmilitaryaffairs.Americanleaders—fromthePresidenttothePentagon
militaryandcivilianleadership—havecalledfordramatictransformationofeachof
theservicestofitthisrevolution.Inmanyways,thisisafarhardertask.
ItisthepurposeofthisNewportPapertoexaminetheviewsofmilitaryofficerson
thatprospect,acriticalandunstudiedfactorintheimplementationoftransformation.
Itscoauthors,ProfessorsMahnkenandFitzSimonds,aremembersoftheNavalWar
Collegefaculty—Dr.MahnkenintheStrategyandPolicyDepartmentandCaptain
FitzSimonds(U.S.Navy,Retired)intheWarGamingDepartment’sResearchand
AnalysisDivision.
Theauthorsarguethattheopinionsofmilitaryofficersontransformationarecrucial,
andnotjustbecausetheseattitudesguidethetransformationprocess.Theyarecritical
alsobecausereceptivitytochangeinthisgroupwillaffectinnovation,bothnowand
whentoday’smid-gradeofficersassumeseniorleadershipposts.Itisfromsome,but
notall,oftoday’smilitaryofficersthatfurthertransformationimpulseswillcome.
Accordingly,MahnkenandFitzSimondsexploreanumberofquestionsfundamentalin
thepresentandforthefutureoftheAmericanmilitaryestablishment.Whatisthelevel
ofenthusiasmamongofficersfortransformation?Howcompellingdotheyperceive
theneedfortransformationtobe?Howextensiveachangedotheybelieveisnecessary?
HowconfidentaretheyintheabilityoftheU.S.militarytocarryouttransformation?
Webelievethatthisstudyisinitselfasinnovativeasthemilitarytransformationthatforms
itsbroadsubject,andwearepleasedtobringittotheattentionofabroadrangeofnaval,
academic,andpolicyreaders.WearegratefulforthegeneroussupportoftheSmith
RichardsonFoundationforthispublicationandwishspeciallytothankJo-AnnParksofJIL
InformationSystemsandDavidChapmanofChapmanandPartnersfortheirskillfulprep-
arationofthemanytablesthatundergirdthismostimpressiveanalyticmonograph.
CATHERINE MCARDLE KELLEHER
Editor, Naval War College Press
Acknowledgments
Wereceivedagreatdealofassistanceinthisproject.Firstandforemost,wewouldlike
tothankCaptainFrankPetho,MSC,U.S.Navy,forhisassistanceindesigningthesur-
veyinstrumentandanalyzingthedata.AttheNavalPostgraduateSchool,IlianaBravo
providedinvaluableassistanceinenteringthedataandbeginningtheliteraturereview.
AttheNavalWarCollege,CommanderLarryFlintandChristopherFitzSimondsas-
sistedusincompletingtheliteraturereview.Wecouldnothaveadministeredthesur-
veywithouttheassistanceofDaveBitters,JohnR.Goss,MajorJohnP.Klatt,U.S.Air
Force,CherylMonday,ColonelDennisPippy,U.S.Army,andColonelTomSmith,U.S.
Army.EleanoreDouglas,StephenDownes-Martin,JohnMaurer,AndrewRoss,and
CommanderJeffSmithprovidedvaluablecommentsonthedraftofthismonograph.
WewouldliketothanktheNavalWarCollegeFoundation,particularlyRearAdmiral
JosephStrasser,U.S.Navy(Ret.),SharylJumpandDebMarro,fortheiradministrative
supportoftheproject.Finally,thisprojectwouldhavebeenimpossiblewithoutthe
generousfinancialsupportoftheSmith-RichardsonFoundationingeneral,andof
MarinStrmeckiandNadiaSchadlowinparticular.

E
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H Innovation and the U.S. Officer Corps
C
Overthepastdecade,asignificantnumberofdefenseanalysts,governmentofficials,
andmilitaryofficershavearguedthatthegrowthanddiffusionofstealth,precision,
andinformationtechnologywilldrasticallyalterthecharacterandconductoffuture
wars,yieldingarevolutioninmilitaryaffairs(RMA).Theideathattheemergenceof
newtechnology,combinedwithinnovativeoperationalconceptsandorganizations,
wouldtransformtheconductofwar,firstappearedinSovietmilitarywritingsinthe
late 1970s.1 It was, however, the seeming ease with which the U.S.-led coalition defeated
Iraqduringthe1991GulfWarthatledmanyobserversintheUnitedStatesandelse-
where to conclude that significant changes in the character of warfare were underway.2
Since the mid-1990s, exploiting the emerging RMA has been an explicit goal of the De-
fense Department.3 The Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff promulgated Joint Vision
2010 with great fanfare in 1996 as the “conceptual template” for how the armed forces
would “leverage technological opportunities to achieve new levels ofeffectiveness in war-
fighting.”4 Each of the services has devoted considerable attention to developing new
technology as well as the concepts and organizations needed to employ it most effectively.
GeorgeW.Bushcampaignedonapledgetoexploittheinformationrevolutionbyskip-
pingagenerationoftechnology.InaSeptember1999speechattheCitadelmilitary
college,then-governorBushnotedthat“ourmilitaryisstillorganizedmoreforcold
warthreatsthanthechallengesofthenewcentury—forindustrial-ageoperations,
rather than information-age battles.”5 Transforming the U.S. armed forces became one
oftheBushadministration’stopprioritieswhenittookoffice.SpeakingattheNorfolk
NavyBaseinFebruary2001,PresidentBushpromisedto“movebeyondmarginalim-
provementstoharnessnewtechnologiesthatwillsupportanewstrategy.”Hecalledfor
the development ofground forces that are lighter,more mobile,and more lethal,as well
as manned and unmanned air forces capable of striking across the globe with precision.6
Soonafterassumingoffice,SecretaryofDefenseDonaldRumsfelddirectedAndrewW.
Marshall,longtimedirectoroftheOfficeofNetAssessment,toconductafundamental