DTIC ADA399645: 1981 Annual Typhoon Report

205 Pages·15 MB·English

by  Defense Technical Information Center

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1.REPORTDATE(DD-MM-YYYY) 2.REPORTTYPE 3.DATESCOVERED(FROM-TO)
01-01-1995 AnnualTyphoonReport xx-xx-1995toxx-xx-1995
4.TITLEANDSUBTITLE 5a.CONTRACTNUMBER
1981AnnualTyphoonReport 5b.GRANTNUMBER
Unclassified
5c.PROGRAMELEMENTNUMBER
6.AUTHOR(S) 5d.PROJECTNUMBER
Tupaz,JesusB.; 5e.TASKNUMBER
Diercks,JohnW.;
5f.WORKUNITNUMBER
Morss,DeanA.;
7.PERFORMINGORGANIZATIONNAMEANDADDRESS 8.PERFORMINGORGANIZATIONREPORT
JointTyphoonWarningCenter NUMBER
425LuapeleRoad
PearlHarbor,HI96860-3103
9.SPONSORING/MONITORINGAGENCYNAMEANDADDRESS 10.SPONSOR/MONITOR'SACRONYM(S)
NavalPacificMeteorologyandOceanographyCenter 11.SPONSOR/MONITOR'SREPORT
JoingTyphoonWarningCenter
NUMBER(S)
425LuapeleRoad
PearlHarbor,HI96860-3103
12.DISTRIBUTION/AVAILABILITYSTATEMENT
APUBLICRELEASE
,
13.SUPPLEMENTARYNOTES
SeeAlsoADM001257,2000AnnualTropicalCycloneReportJoingTyphoonWarningCenter(CDincludes1959-1999ATCRs).Block1and
Block3shouldbe1981.
14.ABSTRACT
TheAnnualTyphoonReportsummarizesthetropicalcyclonesoccurringduring1981inthewesternNorthPacific,theCentralNorthPacific
andtheNorthIndianOceans.
15.SUBJECTTERMS
16.SECURITYCLASSIFICATIONOF: 17.LIMITATION 18. 19.NAMEOFRESPONSIBLEPERSON
OFABSTRACT NUMBER Fenster,Lynn
PublicRelease [email protected]
204
a.REPORT b.ABSTRACT c.THISPAGE 19b.TELEPHONENUMBER
Unclassified Unclassified Unclassified InternationalAreaCode
AreaCodeTelephoneNumber
703767-9007
DSN
427-9007
StandardForm298(Rev.8-98)
PrescribedbyANSIStdZ39.18

U.S. NAVAL OCEANOGRAPHY COMMAND CENTER
JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER
COMNAVMARIANAS BOX 17
FPO SAN FRANCISCO 96630
JESUS B. TUPAZ
C%ptain, United States Navy
COMMANDING
*JOHN W. DIERCKS
Colonel, United States Air Force
DEAN A, MORSS
Lieutenant Colonel, Untied States Air Force
COMMANDER, DETACHMENT 1, 1ST WEATHER WING
DIRECTOR, JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER
l
Transferred during 1981
STAFF
*LCDR James H. Bell, USN
LCDR Benjamin L. Holt, USN
MAJ Richard A. Todd, USAF
*CAPT Clifford R. Matsumoto, USAF
CAPT James N. Heil, USAF
CAPT Roger T. Edson, USAF
*LT Jack E. Huntley, USNR
*LT Raymond R. Fagen, USNR
*LT George M. Dunnavan, USN
LTJG Robert C. Weir, USN
ENS Richard E. Cianflone, USN
ENS James W. Allen, USN
ENS Mary K. Kopper, USN
*AG1 Donald L. McGowan, USN
AG2 Stephani A. Bubanich, USN
AG2 Mahlon W. Perrin, USN
AG2 James A. Frush, USN
*SGT Konrad W. Crowder, USAF
*SGT John W. Archambeau, USAF
SGT Michael P. Blomquist, USAF
SGT Andrew E. Parker, USAF
AG3 Beverly A. McCreary, USN
AG3 Suzanne L. Silverson, USN
*AG3 Paul E. Brewer, USN
SRA John V. Werner, USAF
SRA James W. Lewis, USAF
*SRA Randolph G. Quinto, USAF
AGAN Ann Lackey, USN
CONTRIBUTOR: Detachment 1, lww - USAF
Sateliite Operations
*MAJ David c. Danielson
CAPT Michael S. Risch
*CAPT Marsha A. Korose
CAPT James A. Smith
MSGT Tommy M. Pelley
SSGT Terrence M. Young
*Transferred during 1981
ii
FOREWORD
The Annual Tropical Cyclone Report is lities. Assistance in determining tropical
prepared by the staff of the Joint Typhoon cyclone reconnaissance requirements, and in
Warning Center (JTWC), a combined USAF/USN obtaining the resultant data, is provided by
support organization operating under the Detachment 4, lWW, Hickam AFB, Hawaii.
command of the U. S. Naval Oceanography
Command Center, Guam. JTWC was established In line with the proposals to implement
in April 1959 when CINCPAC directed metric units of measurement within the
CINCPACFLT to provide a single tropical cy- United States over the next few years, vari-
clone warning center for the Pacific area. ous civilian and military organizations have
The operations of JTWC are guided by begun extensive educational proqrams through
CINCPACINST 3140.1(P). use of metric equivalents in their publica-
tions. This report will include metric unit
The mission of the Joint Typhoon equivalent measures whenever possible.
Warning Center is multifaceted and includes:
Satellite imagery used throughout this
1. Continuous meteorological report represents data obtained by the
monitoring of all tropical,activityin the Satellite Selective Reconnaissance Program
northern and southern hemispheres, from the network of stations. The personnel of Det
International Date Line westward to the east 1, lWW, co-located with JTWC at Nimitz Hill,
coast of Africa, to anticipate tropical cy- Guam, direct the satellite acquisitions and
clone development. tropical cyclone surveillance of units at:
2. Issuing warnings for all sig- Det 5, lwW Clark AB, RP;
nificant tropical cyclones in the above area Det 8, lWW, Kadena AS, Japan;
of responsibility. Det 15, 30WS, Osan AB, Korea;
Det 4, lWW, Hickam APB, Hawaii,and
3. Determination of reconnais- Air Force Global Weather Center,
sance requirements for tropical cyclone Offutt APB, Nebraska
surveillance and assignment of appropriate
priorities. In addition, the Naval Oceanography Command
Detachment, Diego Garcia and DMSP equipped
4. In depth post-analysis of all U. S. Navy aircraft carriers have been in-
tropical cyclones occurring within the strumental in providing vital satelliteposi-
WESTPAC/Northern Indian Ocean for publica- tion fixes for tropical disturbances in the
tion in this report. Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal.
5. Cooperation with NAVENVPRED- The staff of JTWC is indebted to
RSCHFAC, Monterey on the operational evalua- Captain Jesus B. Tupaz, USN for his many
tion of tropical cyclone models and forecast valuable suggestions and insightful comments
aids, and independent technique development throughout the preparation of the 1981
to support operational forecast scenarios. Annual Tropical Cyclone Report. A special
thanks is extended to the men and women of
Should JTWC become incapacitated, the the Fleet Air Photographic Laboratory, Naval
Alternate JTWC (AJTWC), located at the U. S. Air Station, Agana, Guam for their assist-
Naval Western Oceanography Center, Pearl ance in the reproduction of satellite and
Harbor, Hawaii, assumes warning responsibi- graphics data for this report.
NOTE: Appendix 4 contains information on
how to obtain past issues of the
Annual Typhoon-Report (redesignated
Annual Tropical Cyclone —Report in
1980).
...
Ill
TABLE OF CONTENTS
CHAPTER I OPERATIONAL PROCEDURES pag~
1. General-----------------------------------------------------
2. Data Sources------------------------------------------------ 1
3. COmunications ---------------------------------------------- 1
4. Analyses---------------------------------------------------- 2
5. Forecast Aids----------------------------------------------- 2
6. Forecasting Procedures-------------------------------------- 2
7. Warnings---------------------------------------------------- 3
8. Prognostic Reasoninq Message-------------------------------- 3
9. Significant Tropical Weather Advisory--–-------------------– .3
10. Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert---------------------------- 3
CHAPTER II RECONNAISSANCE AND FIXES
1. General----------------------------------------------------- 4
2. Reconnaissance Availability--------------------------------- 4
3. Aircraft Reconnaissance Summary----------------------------- A
4. Satellite Reconnaissance Summary------------------------–––– 5
5. Radar Reconnaissance Summary-------------------------------- 6
6. Tropical Cyclone Fix Data----------------------------------- 6
CHAPTER III SUMMARY OF TROPICAL CYCLONES
1. Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclones--------------------- 9
INDIVIDUAL TROPICAL CYCLOSES
TROPICAL TROPICAL
CYCLONE AUTHOR Q.55!f2 CYCLONE AUTHOR m
TY FREDA MATSUMOTO--------------- 16 TS VANESSA TODD----------------------- 64
TS GERALD DUNNAVAN---------------- 20 TS WARREN HUNTLEY-------------------- 68
TS HOLLY TODD-------------------- 24 TY AGNES WEIR----------------------- 70
TY IKE FAGEN------------------- 28 TY BILL HAIL----------------------- 74
TY JUNE HUNTLEY----------------- 32 TY CLARA CIANl?LONE------------------ 78
TY KIY,I,Y WEIR-------------------- 36 TY DOYLE ALLEN---------------------- 82
TS LYNN EDSON------------------- 42 ST ELSIE TODD----------------------- 84
TS MAURY HAIL-------------------- 46 TS FABIAN WEIR----------------------- 88
TS NINA HE'LL-------------,------- 50 TY GAY HAIL----------------------- 90
TY OGDEN TODD-------------------- 52 TY HAZEN CIANFLONE------------------ 94
TD 11/ ST IRMA EDSON---------------------- 98
HUNTLEY------------------54
TS PHYLLIS TS JEFF ALLEN----–-----------------104
TS ROY WEIR-------------------- 58 TY KIT WEIR–-----–-----–---–------106
TS SUSAN EDSON------------------- 6Q TY LEE WEIR---------------–-----–-112
TY THAD ALLEN------------------- 62
2. North Indian Ocean Tropical Cyclones–-–--------------–-–----ll6
TC 27-81 KOPPER------------------118 TC 31-81 CIANFLONE------------------12O
TC 29-81 TODD--------------------119
CHAPTER IV SUMMARY OF FORECAST VERIFICATION
1. Annual Forecast Verification-------–-----––-----–-----------l2l
2. Comparison of Objective Technique---------------------------l26
CHAPTER V APPLIED TROPICAL CYCLONE RESEARCH SUMMARY
1. JTWC Research-----------------------------------------------l29
Climatology of Tropical Cyclones that Develop in Truk
Area
Evaluation of the Blended Persistence and Climatology
(BPAC) Forecast Aid
Geomagnetic Correlations with Tropical Cyclone Develop-
ment
Acceleration of Northward Moving Typhoons South of
Japan
Evaluation of the Navy Nested Two-Way Interactive TCM
(NTCM) and the One-Way Interactive TCM (OTCM/TCNO)
Evaluation of the Navy Genesis Potential Program
iv
page
2. NEp&- Re~earch--________.___-_-__-.-__-_-__-_-_-_-_______.-_l29
The Navy Two-Nay Interactive Nested Tropical Cyclone
Model (NTCM)
Tropical Cyclone Predictability
The Role of the Large-Scale Environment in Dynamic
Tropical Cyclone Model Forecasts
Tropical Cyclone Objective Forecast Confidence and
Display Technique
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Forecasts
Satellite Based Tropical Cyclone Intensity Forecasts
Tropical Cyclone Spiral Linearization Technique
Tropical Cyclone Strike and Kind Probabilities
Tropical Cyclone Storm Surge
Tropical Cyclone Formation Forecasts
3. Publications------------------------------------------------l3l
The Occurrence of Vertical Tilt in Tropical Cyclones
Forecasting Intense Tropical Cyclones Using 700 mb
Equivalent Potential Temperature and Central Sea-
Level Pressure
A Study of Recurving Tropical Cyclones a 34 kt (18
m/see) in the Northwest Pacific 1970-i979
ANNEX A TROPICAL CYCLONE TRACK AND FIX DATA
1. LiesternNorth Pacific Tropical Cyclones-–-------------------132
2. North Indian Ocean Tropical Cyclones------------------------l85
APPENDIX I. Contractions------------------------------------------------l88
II. Definitions-------------------------------------------------l9O
III. References--------------------------------------------------l92
IV. Past Annual Typhoon Reports------------–------–------–------193
DIsTRIBuTIoN---------------------------------------------------------------------------------l94
v
CHAPTER I -OPERATIONAL PROCEDURES
1. GENERAL minimum sea-level pressure
horizontal wind distribution
The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTliC) In addition, wind and pressure-
provides a variety of routine services to height data at the 500 and/or 400 mb level,
the organizations within its area of respon- provided by the aircraft while enroute to,
sibility, including: or from fix missions, provides a valuable
supplement to the all-too sparse data fields
a. Significant Tropical Weather Adviso- of JTWCIS area of responsibility. A compre-
ries: issued daily, this product describes hensive discussion of aircraft weather re-
all tropical disturbances and assesses their connaissance is presented in Chapter II.
potential for further development;
d. SATELLITE RECONNAISSANCE:
b. Tropical Cyclone Formation Alerts:
issued when synoptic, satellite ancl/orair- Meteorological satellite data obtain-
craft reconnaissance data indicate develop- ed from Defense Meteorological Satellite
ment of a significant tropical cyclone in a Proqram (DMSP) and National Oceanic and
specified area is likely; Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) spacecraft
played a major role in the early detection
c. Tropical Cyclone Warnings: issued and tracking of tropical cyclones in 1981.
periodically throughout each day for signi- A discussion of the role of these programs
ficant tropical cyclones, gi.~ingforecasts is presented in Chapter 11.
of position and intensity of the system; and
e. RADAR RECONNAISSANCE:
d. Prognostic Reasoning Messages:
issued twice daily for systems in liESTPAC During 1981, as in previous years,
only, these messages discuss the rationale land radar coverage was utilized extensively
behind the most recent warnings. when available. Once a storm moved within
the range of land radar sites, their reports
The recipients of the services of JTWC were very critical for determination of small
essentially determine the content of JTWC’S scale movement. Use of radar reports during
products according to their ever-char?qing 1981 is discussed in Chapter II.
requirements. Thus, the spectrum of the
routine services is subject to change from
year to year; such changes are usually the
3. COMMUNICATIONS
result of deliberations held at the Annual
Tropical Cyclone Conference.
a. JTWC currently has access to three
primary communications circuits.
2. DATA SOUKES
(1) The Automated Digital Network
(AUTODIN) is used for dissemination of
a. COMPUTER PRODUCTS:
warnings and other related bulletins to
Department of Defense installations. These
The standard array of synoptic-scale
computer analyses and prognostic chazts are messages are relayed for furthertransmission
available from the Fleet Numerical Oceano- over U. S. Navy Fleet Broadcasts, U. S.
graphy Center (FLENUMOCEANCEN) at Monterey, Coast Guard CW (continuous wave Morse code)
California. These products are provided and voice broadcasts. Inbound message traf-
through the capabilities of the Naval fic for JTWC is received via AUTODIN addres-
Environmental Data Network (NEDN). sed to NAVOCEB.NCOMCENGUAM.
b. CONt7ENTIONALDATA: (2) The Air Force Automated Weather
Network (AWN) provides weather data to JT\iC
This data set is comprised of sur– through a dedicated circuit from the Automa-
face and upper-air observations from island, ted Digital Weather Switch (ADWS) at Hickam
AFB, Hawaii. The ADWS selects and routes
ship, and land stations plus weather obser-
vations from commercial and military air- the large volume of meteorological reports
necessary to satisfy JTWC requirements for
craft (AIREp5). Conventional data charts
are prepared daily at 0000Z and 1200Z for the right data at the right time. Weather
bulletins prepared by JTWC are inserted into
the surface/gradient, 500 mb, and 200 mb
levels. The upper-level charts use rawin- the AWN circuit via the NEDS and the Nimitz
Hill Naval Telecommunication Center (NTCC)
sonde data, AIPGZPSwithin 6 hours of the
synoptic times and especially on the 200 mb of the Naval Communications Area Master
chart, satellite blow-off winds. Station Western Pacific.
(3) The Naval Environmental Data
c. AIRCRAFT RECONNAISSANCE: Network (NEDN) is the communications link
with the computers at FLENUMOCEANCEN. JTliC
Aircraft weather reconnaissance data is able to receive environmental data from
are invaluable for the positioning of the FLENUMOCEANCEN and access the computers
center of developing systems and essential directly to run various programs.
for the accurate determination of numerous
parameters, e.g.
Manual streamline analysis of the 500
mb level is accomplished on the 00002 and
eye/center
1200Z data. This analysis is used to dcli-
maximum intensity
1
neate khe mid-tropospheric steering cur- b. OBJECTIVE TECHNIQUES:
rents, which are extremely important to the
TDO. The following objective techniques
were employed in tropical cyclone forecast-
b. The Naval Environmental Display ing during 1981. A description of these
Station (NEDS) has become the backbone of techniques is presented in Chapter IV.
the JTWC communications system; it is the
terminal that provides a direct interface (1) 12 HR EXTRAPOLATION
with the NEDN and AWN. It is also capable
of preparing messages for indirect AUTODIN 2) CLIMATOLOGY
transmission. NTCC supports JTWC communica-
tions by transmitting back-up AWN messages 3) HPAC (Combined extrapolation
using message tapes from the NEDS as well as and climatology)
transmitting the AUTODIN message tapes. The
NEDS is also used extensively by the Typhoon 4) TROPICAL CYCLONE MODEL (Dynamic)
Duty Officer (TDO) to request a multitude of
forecast aids which are processed by the 5) CYCLOPS (Steering)
FLENUMOCEANCEN computers and transmitted to
the TDO over the NEDN circuit. (6) TYAN78 (Analog)
4. ANALYSES (7) NESTED TROPICAL CYCLONE MODEL
(Dynamic)
A composite surface/gradient level (3000
ft) manual analysis of the JTWC area of (8) BPAC (Blended extrapolation and
responsibility is accomplished on the 00002 climatology)
and 12002 conventional data. Analysis of
the wind field using streamlines is stressed
for tropical and subtropical regions. Ana- 6. FORECASTING PROCEDURES
lysis of the pressure field is accomplished
routinely by the NOCC Operations watch-team
a. INITIALIZATION:
and may be used in conjunction with JTWC’S
analysis of tropical wind fields.
In the preparation of each warning,
the actual surface location (fix)of the
Manual streamline analysis of the 500 mb tropical cyclone eye/center just prior to
level is accomplished on the 00002 and 12002 (within three hours of) warning time is of
data. This analysis is used to delineate prime importance. JTWC uses the Selective
the mid–tropospheric steering currents, Reconnaissance Program (SRP) to levy an
which are extremely important to the TDO. optimum mix of resources to obtain fix in-
formation. When tropical cyclones are
A composite upper-tropospheric manual either poorly defined or the actual surface
streamline analysis is accomplished daily location cannot be determined, or when con-
for the 00002 and 12002 data fields utiliz– flicting fix information is received, the
ing rawinsonde data from 300 mb through 100 “best estimate” of the surface location is
mb, wind directions extracted from satellite subjectively determined from the analysis
data by Det 1, lWW, winds derived from cloud of all available data. If fix data are not
motion analysis, and AIREPS (plusor minus available due to reconnaissance platform
6 hours) at or above 29,000 feet. Wind and malfunctions or communication problems,
height data are used to arrive at a repre- synoptic data or extrapolation from previous
sentative analysis of tropical cyclone out- fixes are used. The initial forecast (warn-
flow patterns, of steering currents, and of ing time) position is then obtained by ex-
areas that may indicate tropical cyclone trapolation using the latest fix and a
intensity change. All charts are hand plot- “best track” of the cyclone movement todate.
ted.over areas of tropical cyclone activity
to provide all available data as soon as b. T~CK FORECASTING:
possible to the TDO. These charts are
augmented by the computer-plotted charts for w initial forecast track is develo-
the final analyses. ped based on the previous forecast and the
objective techniques. This initial track is
Additional sectional charts at interme- subjectively modified based on thefollowing:
diate synoptic times and auxiliary charts
such as station-time plot diagrams and (1) The prospects for recurvature
pressure-change charts are also analyzed are evaluated. This evaluation is based
during periods of significant tropical cy- primarily on present and forecast positions
clone activity. and amplitude of middle tropospheric mid-
latitude troughs from the latest 500 mb ana-
lysis and numerical prognoses.
5. FORECAST AIDS
(2) Determination of steering level
a. CLIMATOLOGY:
is partly influenced by maturity and vertical
extent of the system. For mature cyclones
Climatological publications utilized
located south of the 500 mb subtropical
during the 1981 typhoon season include pre-
ridge, forecast changes in speed of movement
vious JTWC Annual Typhoon Reports and clima-
are closely correlated with forecast changes
tic publications from local sources, Naval
in the intensity of the ridge. When steering
Environmental Prediction Research Facility,
currents are very weak, the tendency for cy-
Naval Postgraduate School, Air weather
clones to move northward due to their inter-
Service, First Weather Wing and Chanute
Technical Training Center. Publications nal forces is an important consideration.
from other Air Force and Navy activities,
(3) The proximity of the tropical
various universities and foreign countries
cyclone to other tropical cyclones is e-]alu-
are also used by the JTWC.
2