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REPORT DOCUMENTATION PAGE FormApprovedOMBNo. 0704-0188 Publicreportingburderforthiscollectionofinformationisestibatedtoaverage1hourperresponse,includingthetimeforreviewinginstructions,searchingexistingdatasources,gatheringandmaintainingthedataneeded,andcompleting andreviewingthiscollectionofinformation.Sendcommentsregardingthisburdenestimateoranyotheraspectofthiscollectionofinformation,includingsuggestionsforreducingthisburdertoDepartmentofDefense,Washington HeadquartersServices,DirectorateforInformationOperationsandReports(0704-0188),1215JeffersonDavisHighway,Suite1204,Arlington,VA22202-4302.Respondentsshouldbeawarethatnotwithstandinganyotherprovisionof law,nopersonshallbesubjecttoanypenaltyforfailingtocomplywithacollectionofinformationifitdoesnotdisplayacurrentlyvalidOMBcontrolnumber.PLEASEDONOTRETURNYOURFORMTOTHEABOVEADDRESS. 1.REPORTDATE(DD-MM-YYYY) 2.REPORTTYPE 3.DATESCOVERED(FROM-TO) 01-01-1995 AnnualTyphoonReport xx-xx-1995toxx-xx-1995 4.TITLEANDSUBTITLE 5a.CONTRACTNUMBER 1982AnnualTyphoonReport 5b.GRANTNUMBER Unclassified 5c.PROGRAMELEMENTNUMBER 6.AUTHOR(S) 5d.PROJECTNUMBER Tupaz,JesusB.; 5e.TASKNUMBER Hinman,Jr.,KendallG.; 5f.WORKUNITNUMBER Morss,DeanA.; 7.PERFORMINGORGANIZATIONNAMEANDADDRESS 8.PERFORMINGORGANIZATIONREPORT JointTyphoonWarningCenter NUMBER 425LuapeleRoad PearlHarbor,HI96860-3103 9.SPONSORING/MONITORINGAGENCYNAMEANDADDRESS 10.SPONSOR/MONITOR'SACRONYM(S) NavalPacificMeteorologyandOceanographyCenter 11.SPONSOR/MONITOR'SREPORT JoingTyphoonWarningCenter NUMBER(S) 425LuapeleRoad PearlHarbor,HI96860-3103 12.DISTRIBUTION/AVAILABILITYSTATEMENT APUBLICRELEASE , 13.SUPPLEMENTARYNOTES SeeAlsoADM001257,2000AnnualTropicalCycloneReportJoingTyphoonWarningCenter(CDincludes1959-1999ATCRs).Block1and Block3shouldbe1982. 14.ABSTRACT TheAnnualTyphoonReportsummarizesthetropicalcyclonesoccurringduring1982inthewesternNorthPacific,theCentralNorthPacific andtheNorthIndianOceans. 15.SUBJECTTERMS 16.SECURITYCLASSIFICATIONOF: 17.LIMITATION 18. 19.NAMEOFRESPONSIBLEPERSON OFABSTRACT NUMBER Fenster,Lynn PublicRelease [email protected] 244 a.REPORT b.ABSTRACT c.THISPAGE 19b.TELEPHONENUMBER Unclassified Unclassified Unclassified InternationalAreaCode AreaCodeTelephoneNumber 703767-9007 DSN 427-9007 StandardForm298(Rev.8-98) PrescribedbyANSIStdZ39.18 U.S. NAVAL OCEANOGRAPHY COMMAND CENTER JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER COMNAVMARIANAS BOX 17 FPO SAN FRANCISCO 96630 *JESUSB. TUPAZ Captain, United States Navy KENDALL G, HINMAN JR, (2ptain, United States Navy COMMANDING DEAN A. MORSS Lieutenant Colonel, United States Air Force COMMANDER, DETACHMENT 1, 1ST WEATHER WING DIRECTOR, JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER *Transferred during 1982 STAFF LCDR Benjamin L. HoIt, USN MAJ Frank H. Wells, USAF *WJ Richard A. Todd, USAF *CAPT James N. Heil, USAF LT Robert L. Allen, USN CAPT Roger T. Edson, USAF CAPT Robert S. Lilianstrom, USAF LT Robert C. Weir, USN *ENS James W. Allen, USNR *ENS Mary K. Kopper, USN ENS Richard E. Cianflone, USNR ENS Terrence J. Bonnstetter, USNR SSGT Terry R. Sandmeier, USAF *AG2 Stephani A. Bubanich, USN *AG2 Mahlon W. Perrin, USN AG2 James A. Frush, USN AG2 Carl L. Hurless, USN AG2 Robert B. Campbell, USN *SGT Michael P. Blomquist, USAF *SGT Andrew E. Parker, USAF *AG3 Suzanne L. Silverson, USN *AG3 Beverly A. McCreary, USN AG3 Vickianne Clark, USN AG3 Anne W. Lackey, USN SGT John W. Wernen, USAF *SRA James W. Lewis, USAF SRA John C. Giles, USAF SRA Jeffrey A. Goldman, USAF AIC Jeffrey L. Cimini, USAF CONTRIBUTOR : Detachment 1, lWW - USAF Satellite Operations *CAPT Michael S. Risch CAPT James N. Heil *CAPT James A. Smith lLT David T. Miller MSGT Tommy M. Pelley T.SGTMichael R. Pukajlo SSGT Terrence M. Young *transferred during 1982 T;leAnnual Tropical Cyclone Report resultant data, is provided by is prepared by the staff of the Joint Letaciment 4. lWW, Hickman AFB, Hawaii. Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC),a combined IXAF/USN organization operating under the Satellite imagery used throughout this command of the Commanding Officerr U.S. report represents data obtained by the Naval Oceanography Command Center/Joint tropical cyclone satellite surveillance Typhoon Warning Center, Guam. JTWC was network. The personnel of Det 1, lw’w, established in April 1959 when CINCPAC colocated with JTWC at Nimitz Hill, Guam, directed CINCPACFLT to provide a single coordinate the satellite acquisitions and tropical cyclone warning center for the tropical cyclone surveillance by the following western North Pacific region. The operations units: of JTWC are guided by CINCPACINST 3140.1 (series). Det 5, lWW, Clark AB, RP The mission of the Joint Typhoon Det 3, lWW, Kadena AB, Japan Warning Center is multi-faceted and includes: Det 15, 30ws, Osan AB, Korea Det 4, lWJ, Hickam AFB, Hawaii 1. Continuous meteorological Air Force Global Weather Center, monitoring of all tropical activity in the Offutt AFB, Nebraska Northern and Southern Hemispheres, from 180 degrees longitude westward to the east coast of Africa, to anticipate tropical cyclone In addition, the Naval Oceanography Command development. Detachment, Diego Garcia, and DMSP equipped U.S. Navy aircraft carriers have been 2. Issuing warnings for all instrumental in providing vital satellite significant tropical cyclones in the above position fixes of tropical disturbances in area of responsibility. the Indian Ocean. 3. Determination or reconnais- In line with the proposals to implement sance requirements for tropical cyclone metric units of measurements within the surveillance and assignment of appropriate United States over the next few years, priorities. various civilian and military organizations have begun extensive educational programs 4. In depth post-storm analysis of through use of metric equivalents in all tropical cyclones occurring within the their publications. This report will include western North Pacific and North Indian Oceans metric unit equivalent measures whenever for publication in this report. possible. 5. Cooperation with the Naval A special thanks is extended to the Environmental Prediction Research Facility men and women of: 27’thCommunication Squadron, (NEPRF),Monterey, California, on the Operating Location C, for their continuing operation evaluation of tropical cyclone support by providing high quality, real-time models and forecast aids, and the development satellite imagery; the Pacific Fleet Audio- of new techniques to support operational Visual Center, Guam, for their assistance forecast scenarios. in the reproduction of satellite and graphics data for this report: to the Navy publications Should JTWC become incapacitated, the and Printing Service Branch Office, Guam, Alternate JTWC (AJTWC), located at the U.S. for their efforts to meet publication Naval Western Oceanography Center, Pearl deadlines; and to Mrs. Cynthia Blevins Harbor, Hawaii, assumes warning responsi- for her patience and perseverance in typing bilities. Assistance in determining the many drafts and the final manuscript of satellite reconnaissance requirements, and in the report. NOTE: Appendix 5 contains information on how to obtain past issues of the Annual Typhoon Report (redesignated Annual Tropical Cyclone Report in 1980). ... Ill l’-a w &d0L H oP p E g L L ri W ’ ; l e +mm~lnw.... E 2:E:$ $;~: 3UU24Jlha04-II<0+1+UlolmGllnImlII1111111111111111111111111111Ill!11111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111[[111111111111111111111!11Iill11111111111111111111lilt11111111111111111111111111111111 +!-ldcwm r. . c. o. m ~. . 40%Z -10101Mlh! IIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIII!!IIIIIIIIIIII . I n m m w r - b HHH HG2U!22 +&!&G; IAIAlIwlolIz:!21 Ill1111:;IllIllIllIllIllIllIllIllIIIII M I I I IIIIIIII ;k’$iii~ $:g$$~ Mddl:1WwlzII221fall11111IIIIIIIllIllIIIIIIIllIllIllIllIllIll .m .-> PAGE 2. N?&PRIR?esearch------------------------------------------ 147 Tropical Cyclone Storm Surge The Navy Two-Way Interactive Nested Tropical Cyclone Model (NTCM) Tropical Cyclone Optimum Forecast Aid Tropical Cyclone Objective Forecast Confidence and Display Technique Speed of Recurving Typhoons Satellite Based Tropical Cyclone Intensity Forecasts Tropical Cyclone Intensity Forecast Tropical Cyclone Gust and Sustained Wind Forecast Aids for Yokosuka and Cubi Point Tropical Cyclone Strike and Wind Probabilities 3. Publications ------------------------------------------- 149 Forecast Verification and Reconnaissance Data for Southern Hemisphere Tropical Cyclones Predicting the Acceleration of Northward-moving Tropical Cyclones Using Upper-Tropospheric Winds ANNEX A TROPICAL CYCLONE TRACK AND FIX DATA 1. Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclones ---------------- 150 2. North Indian Ocean Tropical Cyclones ------------------- 222 I. Contractions ------------------------------------------- 228 II. Definitions -------------------------------------------- 23CI III. Names for Tropical Cyclones ---------------------------- 231 IV. References --------------------------------------------- 232 v. Past Annual Typhoon Reports ---------------------------- 233 DISTRIBUTION -------------------------------------------------------------------------- 234 v CHAPTER I - OPERATIONAL PROCEDURES parameters, including; 1. GENERAL The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) eye/center temperature antidewpoint provides a variety of routine services to the - maximum surface an< flight level wind organizations within its area of responsi- - minimum sea level press~re bility, including: – horizontal wind distribution a. Significant Tropical Weather Adviso– ries: issued daily, this product describes In addition, wind and pressure-height all tropical disturbances and assesses their data at the 500 and/or 400 mb level, provided potential f~r further development; by the aircraft while enroute to, or from fix missions, provide a valuable supplement b. Tropical Cyclone Formation Alerts: to the all too sparse data fields of JTWC’S issued when synoptic, satellite and/or area of responsibility. A comprehensive aircraft reconnaissance data indicate develop- discussion of aircraft weather reconnaissance ment of a significant tropical cyclone in a is presented in Chapter 11. specified area is likely; d. SATELLITE RECONNAISSANCE: c. Tropical Cyclone Warnings: issued periodically throughout each day for signi- Meteorological satellite data obtained ficant tropical cyclones, giving forecasts from Defense Meteorological Satellite of position and intensity of the system; and Program (DMSP), and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA),space- d. Prognostic Reasoning Message: craft played a major role in the early issued twice daily for tropical storms and detection and tracking of tropical cyclones typhoons in the western North Pacific; in 1982. A discussion of the role of these these messages discuss the rationale behind programs is presented in Chapter II. the most recent warnings. e. ~DAR RECONNAISSANCE: The recipients of the services of JTWC essentially determine the content of JTWC’S During 1982, as in previous years, products according to their ever-changing land radar coverage was utilized extensively requirements. Thus, the spectrum of the when available. Once a tropical cyclone routine services is subject to change from moved within the range of land radar sites, year to year; such changes are usually the their reports were essential for determi- result of deliberations held at the Annual nation of small scale movement. Use of Tropical Cyclone Conference. radar reports during 1982 is discussed in Chapter II. 2. DATA SOURCES 3. COMMUNICATIONS a. COMPUTER PRODUCTS: a. JTWC currently has access to three primary communications circuits. A standard array of synoptic-scale computer analyses and prognostic charts are (1) The Automated Digital Network available from the Fleet Numerical Oceano- (AUTODIN) is used for dissemination of graphy Center (FNOC)at Monterey, California. warnings and other related bulletins to These products are provided via the Naval Department of Defense installations. These Environmental Data Network (NEDN). messages are relayed for further transmission over U.S. Navy Fleet Broadcasts, and U.S. b. CONVENTIONAL DATA: Coast Guard CW (continuouswave Morse code) and voice broadcasts. Inbound message This data set is comprised of land- traffic for JTWC is received via AUTODIN based and shipboard surface and upper-air addressed to NAVOCEANCOMCEN GUAM or JTWC GUAM. observations taken at or near synoptic times, cloud-motion winds derived twice daily from (2) The Air Force Automated Weather satellite data, and enroute meteorological Network (AWN)provides weather data to JTWC observations from commercial and military through a dedicated circuit from the aircraft (AIREPS)within six hours of Automated Digital Weather Switch (ADWS)at synoptic times. Conventional data charts Hickam AFB, Hawaii. The ADWS selects and are prepared daily at 00002 and 12002 using routes the large volume of meteorological hand- and cornpwter-plotteddata for the reports necessary to satisfy JTWC requirements surface/gradient, 500 mb (mid-tropospheric), for the right data at the right time. Weather and 200 mb (upper-tropospheric)levels. bulletins prepared by JTWC are inserted into In addition to these charts, a 700 mb the AWN circuit via the NEDS and the Nimitz (lower-tropospheric)chart is computer- Hill Naval Telecommunication Center (NTCC) plotted from rawinsonde/pibal observations Of the Naval Communications Area Master received at FNOC for the 12-hour synoptic Station Western Pacific. times. (3) The Naval Environmental Data Network c. AIRCRAFT RECONNAISSANCE: (NEDN) is the communications link with the computers at FNOC. JTNC is able to receive Aircraft weather reconnaissance data environmental data from FNOC and access the are invaluable for the position of the computers directly to run various programs. center of developing systems and essential for the accurate determination of numerous 1 b. The Naval Environmental Display (7) ONE-WAY TROPICAL CYCLONE Station (NEDS)has become the backbone of MODEL (Dynamic) the JTWC communications system; it is the terminal that provides a direct interface (8) NESTED TROPICAL CYCLONE with the NEDN and AWN; and it is capable MODEL (Dynamic) of preparing messages for indirect AuTODIN mteraannssmifsosriotnh.e TyTphheoNoEnDSDutaylsOoffpircoevride(sTDaO) (9) TAPT (Empirical) to request forecast aids which are processed b. INTENSITY on the FNOC computers and transmitted to the TDO over the NEDN circuit. (1) THETA E (Empirical) 4. ANALYSES (2) V71NDRADIUS (Analytical) A composite surface/gradient level (3) DVORAK (Empirical) (3000 ft (915m)) manual analysis of the JTWC area of responsibility is accomplished on the OOOOZ and 1200Z conventional data. Analysis 6. FORECAST PROCEDURES of the wind field using streamlines is stressed for tropical and subtropical a. INITIAL POSITIONING: regions. Analysis of the pressure field is accomplished routinely by the Naval Ocean- In the preparation of each warning an ography Command Center (NOCC)Operations accurate location (fix)of the tropical watch-team and may be used in conjunction cyclone’s surface center within two to three with JTWC’S analysis of tropical wind fields. hours of warning time is of prime importance. JTWC uses the Selective Reconnaissance Program Manual streamline analysis of the 500 mb (SRP)to levy an optimal mix of available level is accomplished on the 00002 and 1200Z resources to obtain the necessary fix informa- data. This analysis is used to delineate the tion. Whenever a tropical cyclone is poorly mid-tropospheric steering currents, which defined or the actual surface center cannot can be extremely important to the tropical be determined, and when conflicting fix cyclone forecast. information is received, the “best estimate” of the surface location is subjectively A composite upper-tropospheric manual determined from the analysis of all available streamline analysis is accomplished daily data. If the fix data are not available due utilizing rawinsonde data from 300 mb through to reconnaissance platform malfunctions or 100 mb, winds derived from cloud motion communication problems, synoptic data or analysis, and AIREPS (plusor minus 6 hours) extrapolation from previous fixes are used. at or above 29,000 feet (8,839m). Wind The warning position is then obtained by and height data are used to arrive at a determining the “best track” of the tropical representative analysis of tropical cyclone cyclone up to the last fix, or best estimate outflow patterns, mid-latitude steering of the position of its surface center, and currents, and features that may influence forecasting its movement to the warning time. tropical cyclone intensity. All charts are hand-plotted over areas of tropical cyclone b. TRACi:FORECASTING: activity to provide all available data as soon as possible to the TM. These charts A preliminary forecast track is developed are augmented by the computer-plotted charts for the final analysis. based on an evaluation of the rationale behind the previous warning and the guidance given by the most recent objective techniques A 700 nibcomputer-plotted chart is and numerical prognoses. This preliminary available for streamline or height-change track is subjectively modified based on the analysis from the 0000Z and 1200Z data base. following considerations: Additional sectional charts at intermediate synoptic times and auxiliary charts such as (1) The prospects for recurvature or station-time plot diagrams and pressure- erratic movement are evaluated. This evalu- change charts are also analyzed during periods ation is based primarily on the present and of significant tropical cyclone activity. forecast, positions and amplitudes of the middle-tropospheric, mid-latitude troughs 5. FORECAST AIDS as depicted on the latest upper air analyses and numerical prognoses. The following objective techniques were employed in tropical cyclone forecasting during 1982 (adescription of these techniques (2) Determination of the best steering is presented in Chapter IV): level is partly influenced by the maturity and vertical extent of the tropical cyclone. For mature tropical cyclones located south of a. MOVEMENT the subtropical ridge, forecast changes in speed of movement are closely correlated with (1) 12-HR EXTFJ+POLATION anticipated changes in the intensity or rela- tive position of the ridge. When steering (2) CLIMATOLOGY currents are relatively weak, the tendency for tropical cyclones to move northward due (3) HPAC (Extrapolation/Climatology) to internal forces is an important consider- ation. (4) BPAC (Extrapolation/Climatology) (3) Over the 12- to 72-hour forecast (5) CYCLOPS (Steering) period, speed of movement during the early forecast period is usually biased toward (6) TYAN78 (Analog) persistence, while the subsequent forecast periods are biased toward objective 2