DTIC ADA399638: 1978 Annual Typhoon Report

178 Pages·11.9 MB·English

by  Defense Technical Information Center

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1.REPORTDATE(DD-MM-YYYY) 2.REPORTTYPE 3.DATESCOVERED(FROM-TO)
01-01-1995 AnnualTyphoonReport xx-xx-1995toxx-xx-1995
4.TITLEANDSUBTITLE 5a.CONTRACTNUMBER
1978AnnualTyphoonReport 5b.GRANTNUMBER
Unclassified
5c.PROGRAMELEMENTNUMBER
6.AUTHOR(S) 5d.PROJECTNUMBER
Morford,DeanR.; 5e.TASKNUMBER
Lavin,JamesK.;
5f.WORKUNITNUMBER
7.PERFORMINGORGANIZATIONNAMEANDADDRESS 8.PERFORMINGORGANIZATIONREPORT
JointTyphoonWarningCenter NUMBER
425LuapeleRoad
PearlHarbor,HI96860-3103
9.SPONSORING/MONITORINGAGENCYNAMEANDADDRESS 10.SPONSOR/MONITOR'SACRONYM(S)
NavalPacificMeteorologyandOceanographyCenter 11.SPONSOR/MONITOR'SREPORT
JoingTyphoonWarningCenter NUMBER(S)
425LuapeleRoad
PearlHarbor,HI96860-3103
12.DISTRIBUTION/AVAILABILITYSTATEMENT
APUBLICRELEASE
,
13.SUPPLEMENTARYNOTES
SeeAlsoADM001257,2000AnnualTropicalCycloneReportJoingTyphoonWarningCenter(CDincludes1959-1999ATCRs).Block1and
Block3shouldbe1978.
14.ABSTRACT
TheAnnualTyphoonReportsummarizesthetropicalcyclonesoccurringduring1978inthewesternNorthPacific,theCentralNorthPacific
andtheNorthIndianOceans.
15.SUBJECTTERMS
16.SECURITYCLASSIFICATIONOF: 17.LIMITATION 18. 19.NAMEOFRESPONSIBLEPERSON
OFABSTRACT NUMBER Fenster,Lynn
PublicRelease [email protected]
177
a.REPORT b.ABSTRACT c.THISPAGE 19b.TELEPHONENUMBER
Unclassified Unclassified Unclassified InternationalAreaCode
AreaCodeTelephoneNumber
703767-9007
DSN
427-9007
StandardForm298(Rev.8-98)
PrescribedbyANSIStdZ39.18

U. S. FLEET WEATHER CENTRAL
JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER
COMNAVMARIANASBOX 17
FPO SAN FRANCISCO 96630
DEAN R. MORFORD
Captain, United States Navy
COMMANDING
JAMES K. LAVIN
Lieutenant Colonel, United States Air Force
DIRECTOR, JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER
STAFF
*LCDR David Sokol, USN
LCDR Carl B. Ihlir Jr., USN
*LT Gary R. Willms, USN
*CAPT Alan W. Hassebrock, USAF
LT Olaf M. Lubeck, USN
*CAPT Charles P. Guard, USAF
CAPT John D. Shewchuk, USAF
CAPTGerald A. Guay, USAF
LTJG George M. Dunnavan, USNR
*LTJG Edward M. Fukada, USN
ENS William T. Curry, USN
MSGT Hans J. Hassl, USAF
SSGT Bobby L. Setliff, USAF
AG2 Donald L. McGowan, USN
*AG2 Andree S. Webster, USN
*SGT Paul D. Edwards, USAF
SGT William H. Taylor, USAF
*SRA vandora A. Barnes, USAF
SRA Charles J. Lee, USAF
AG3 Kenneth A. Kellogg, USN
*AG3 John A. Kilburn, USN
AIC Timothy J. Sowell, USAF
*AGAN Karen F. Moorefield, USN
AGAN Carl A. Gantz, USN
AGAN Kathleen S. Minerich, USN
AGAN Gregory M. Hardyman, USN
CONTRIBUTOR
Det 1, lww - USAF
1978
ANNUAL TYPHOON REPORT
*Departed during 1978
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ii
FOREWORD
The Annual Typhoon Report is prepared 5. Conduct tropical cyclone fore-
by the staff of the Joint Typhoon Warning casting and detection research as practi-
Center (JTWC). JTWC is a combined USAF/USM cable.
entity operating under the command of the
U. S. Fleet Weather Central, Guam. The In the event of incapacitation of the
senior Air Force officer assigned is desig- JTWC, the alternate (AJTWC) assumes the
nated as Director, JTWC and is responsible responsibility for the issuance of warning~.
to the Commanding Officer, U. S. Fleet The U. S. Fleet Weather Central, Pearl
Weather Central, Guam for the operation of Harbor, Hawaii is designated as the AJTWC.
the JTWC. The senior Naval Officer of the Assistance in determining tropical cyclone
JTWC is designated as the Deputy Director/’ reconnaissance requirements and in obtaining
Operations Officer. The JTWC was estab- reconnaissance data is provided by Detatih-
lished by CINCPACFLT message 2802082 April ment 4, 1st Weather Wing, Hickam AFB, Hawaii.
1959 when directed by CINCPAC message
2302332 April 1959. Its operatim.$. guided The Central Pacific Hurricane Center,
by the CINCPACINST 3140.1 (series). (CPHC) Honolulu, Hawaii is manned by per-
sonnel Of the U. S. National Weather Service
The Fleet Weather Central/Joint Typhoon who are responsible for the issuance of
Warning Center, Guam has the responsibility tropical cyclone warnings for the area north
to: of the equator from the Date Line east to
140W. Warnings are issued in coordination
1. Provide continuous meteoro- with the U. S. Fleet Weather Central, Pearl
logical watch of all tropical activity north Harbor and Detachment 4, lWW, Hickam APB,
of the equator, west of the Date Line, and Hawaii. Post analysis information is for-
east of the African coast (JTWC area of warded to the JTWC for inclusion in the
responsibility) for potential tropical Annual Typhoon Report.
cyclone development;
The meteorological services of the
2. Provide warnings for all sig- United States are planning to implement the
nificant tropical cyclones in the assigned metric system of measurement over the next
area of responsibility; few years. Some civilian and military
agencies have started the education program
3. Determine tropical cyclone by showing the metric equivalents to current
reconnaissance requirements and assign units of measure. This Annual Typhoon
priorities; Report includes metric equivalents to most
measures.
4. Conduct an annual post Unless otherwise stated all satellite
analysis of all tropical cyclones occurring data..usedin this AT? age Air Force Weather
within the area north of the equator from Service DMSP Data as acquired by OL-C, 27CS
140W west to the coast of Africa and prepare personnel and analyzed by Det 1, lww per-
ap Annual Typhoon Report for issuance to sonnel colocated with the JTWC at Nimitz
interested agencies; and Hill, Guam.’
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1
ANNEX B TROPICAL CYCLONE FIX DATA page
1. Western North Pacific Cyclone Fix Data------------------------ 114
2. North Indian Ocean Cyclone Fix Data--------------------------- 161
APPENDIX CONTRACTIONS AND DEFINITIONS
1. Contractions-------------------------------------------------- 164
2. Definitions--------------------------------------------------- 165
DISTRIBUTION 166
v
CHAPTER i - OPERATIONAPLR”OCEDURES
to supplement the sparse data in the tropics
1. GENERAL and subtropics. These data are plotted on
large-scale sectional charts for each mission
Routine services provided by the Joint flown. A comprehensive discussion of air-
Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) include the craft weather reconnaissance is presented in
following: (1) Significant Tropical Weather Chapter II.
Advisories issued daily describing all tropi-
cal disturbances and their potential for d. SATELLITE RECONt?AISSANCE:
further development; (2)Tropical Cyclone
Formation Alerts issued whenever interpre- Meteorological satellite data ?rom
tation of satellite and synoptic data indi- the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program
cates likely formation of a significant (DNSP) and the National Oceanic and Atmo-
tropical cyclone; (3) Tropical Cyclone Warn- spheric Administration played a major role
ings issued four times daily whenever a in the early detection and tracking of tropi-
significant tropical cyclone exists in the cal cyclones in 1978. A discussion of this
Pacific area; (4) Tropical Cyclone Warnings role is presented in Chapter 11.
issued twice daily whenever a significant
tropical cyclone exists in the Indian Ocean e. RADAR RECiNWV~ISSANCE:
area; and (5) Prognostic Reasoning messages
issued twice daily for tropical storms and During 1978, as in recent years, land
typhoons in the Pacific area. radar coverage was utilized extensively when
available. Once a storm moved within the
JTWC responds to changing requirements ranqe of a land radar site, reports were
of activities serviced. Therefore, contents usually received hourly. Use of radar during
of routine services are subject to change 1978 is discussed in Chapter II.
from year to year usually as a result of the
Annual l’ropicalCyclone Conference delibera– 3. COMMUNICATIONS
tions.
a. FWC/JTWC currently has access to
2. DATA SOURCES tnree primary communications circuits:
a. COMPUTER PRODUCTS: (1) The Automated Digital Network
(AUTODIN) is used for dissemination of warn-
FLEWEACEN Guam provides computerized ings and other related bulletins to Depart-
meteorological/oceanographic products for ment of Defense installations. These
JTWC. In addition, the standard array of messages are relayed for further transmission
synoptic-scale computer analyses and prog- over U. S. Navy Fleet Broadcasts, U. S. Coast
nostic charts are available from the Fleet Guard CW (continuous wave morse code) and
Numerical Weather Central (FNWC) at Monterey, voice communications. Inbound message traf-
California via FLEWEACEN Guam. With the fic for JTWC is received via AUTODIN addres-
installation of the Naval Environmental Dis- sed to FLEwEACEN GUAM,.
play Stations (NEDS) during 1978, JTWC now
has very timely access to necessary FNWC (2) The Air Force Automated Weather
products and is thereby able to more effi- Network (AWN) provides necessary weather data
ciently and effectively use this information. to JTWC through a dedicated circuit from the
automated digital weather switch”’(ADWS)at
b. CONVENTIONAL DATA: Clark AB, R.P. The ADWS selects and routes
the large volume of meteorological reports
Conventional meteorological data are necessary to satisfy JTWC requirements for
defined as surface and upper air observatiozw the right data at the right time. Weather
from island, ship and land stations plus bulletins prepared by JTWC are inserted into
weather observations from commercial and the AWN circuit by the Nimitz Hill Naval
military aircraft (AIREPS). Computer plotted Telecommunications Center (NTCC) of the Naval
charts of 00002 and 12002 conventional data Communications Area Master Station Western
are produced daily for the surface, 700 mb, Pacific.
and 500 mb levels. A chart of upper air data
is produced which utilizes 200 mb rawinsonde (3) The Naval Environmental Data
data and AIREPS above 29,000 ft within 6 Network (NEDN) connects FWC/JTWC with the
hours of the 00002 and 12002 synoptic times. computers at FNWC. FWC/JTWC is able to both
receive environmental data from FNWC and
c. AIRCRAFT RECONNAISSANCE: access the computers directly to run various
programs.
Aircraft weather reconnaissance data
are invaluable in the positioning of centers b. Besides providing forecasters with
of developing syskems and essential for the the ability to rapidly access computer pro-
accurate determination of the eye/center, ducts from FNWC, the NEDS has recently be-
maximum intensity, minimum sea-level pressure come the backbone of the FWC/JTWC communi-
and radius of significant winds exhihited by cations system. AUTODIN and AWN message
tropical cyclones. Winds and pressure height tapes can now be prepared by JTWC personnel
data at the 500 and/or 400 mb level, provided for insertion into the AUTODIN and AVJ’Jcir-
by reconnaissance aircraft while enroute to, cuits by the NTCC. The NEDS is also used by
or returning from, fix missions, is also used the TDO to request forecast aids which are
processed by the computers at FNWC Monterey (5) CLIMATOLOGY
End transmitted back to the ‘1’DOover the NEDN
circuit. (6) HPAC
4. ANALYSES (7) TROPICAL CYCLONE MODEL
A composite surface/gradient level (3000 (8) .INJAH74
ft) manual analysis is accomplished on the
00002 and 12002 conventional data. Analysis (9) CYCLOPS
of the wind field using streamlines is
stressed for tropical and subtropical (10) TYAN78
regions. Analysis of the pressure field is
stressed for hi~her latitudes and-in the 6. FORECASTING PROCEDURES
vicinity of tropical cyclones.
a. INITIALIZATION:
Manual analysis of the 500 mb level is
accomplished on the 00002 and 12002 data In the preparation of each warning,
when significant tropical cyclones exist. the actual surface location (fix) of the
Although the analysis of the 500 mb height tropical cyclone eye/center just prior to
field is stressed, analysis of the wind (within three hours of) warning time is of
field to more clearl’ydelineate steering prime importance. JTWC uses the Selective
currents is equally important. Reconnaissance Program (SRP) to levy an
optimum mix of aircraft, satellite and radar
A composite upper-tropospheric manual resources to obtain fix information. When
analysis, utilizing rawinsonde data from tropical cyclones are either poorly defined
300 mb through 100 mb, wind directions ex- or_theactual surface lo_c,ationcannot Fe
tracted from satellite data by Det 1, lt71i determined, or when conflicting fix infor-
and AIREPS (plus or minus 6 hours) at or mation is received, the “best estimate” of
above 29,!)00feet is accomplished on 00002 the surface location is subjectively deter-
and 12002 data daily. Wind and height data mined from the analysis of all available
are used to arrive at a representative data. If fix data is not available due to
analysis of tzopical cyclone outflow pat- reconnaissance platform malfunctions or
terns, of steering currents and of areas communication problems, synoptic data or
that may indicate tropical cyclone intensity extrapolation from previous fixes is used.
change. All charts are hand plotted over The initial forecast (warning time) position
areas of tropical cyclone activity, tc pro- is then obtained by extrapolation using the
vide all available data as soon as possible, current fix and a “best track” of the
to the TDO, and then augmeritedby the com- cyclone movement to date.
puter plotted charts for the f+nal analyses.
b. TRACK FORECASTING:
Additional sectional charts at inter-
mediate synoptic times and auxiliary charts 7+ninitial forecast track is devel-
such as checkerboard diagrams and pressure oped based on the previous forecast and the
change charts are also analyzed during objective techniques. This initial track
periods of significant tropical cyclone is subjectively modified based on the fol-
activity. lowing:
5, FoRECAST AIDS (1) The prospects for recurvature
are evaluated for all westward and northward
a. CLIMATOLOGY: moving storms. This evaluation is based
primarily on present and forecast position
Climatological publications utilized and amplitude of middle tropospheric mid-
duri~g the 1978 typhoon season include pre- latitude troughs from the latest 500 mb
vious JTWC Annual Typhoon Reports and clima- analysis and numerical prognoses.
tic publications from Fleet Weather Central,
Guam, Naval Environmental Prediction (2) Determination of steering level
Research Facility, Naval Postgraduate School, is partly influenced by maturity and verti-
Air Weather Service, First Weather Wing and cal extent of the system. For mature storms
Chanute Technical Training Center, plus located south of the 500 mb subtropical
publications from other Air Force and Navy ridge, forecast changes in speed of movement
activities, various universities and foreign are closely correlated with forecast changes
countries. in the intensity of the ridge. When steer-
ing currents are very weak, the tendency for
b. OBJECTIVE TECHNIQUES: ‘cyclone-sto move northward due to their in-
ternal forces is an important consideration.
The following objective techniques
were employed in tropical cyclone forecasting
during 1978. A description of these tech- (3) The proximity of the tropical
cyclone to other tropical cyclones is
niques is presented in Chapter IV.
evaluated to determine if there is a possi-
(1) T’YFN75 bility of Fujiwhara interaction. H
(2) MOHATT 700/500 (4) Over the 12- to 72-hr forecast
spectrum; speed of movement during the early
(3) FCSTINST time frame is biased towarcipersistence (12
hr extrapolation) while that near the end of
(4) 12 HR EXTRAPOLATION the time frame is biased towards objective
techniques and climatology.
2