DTIC ADA399637: 1977 Annual Typhoon Report

135 Pages·9.2 MB·English

by  Defense Technical Information Center

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1.REPORTDATE(DD-MM-YYYY) 2.REPORTTYPE 3.DATESCOVERED(FROM-TO)
01-01-1995 AnnualTyphoonReport xx-xx-1995toxx-xx-1995
4.TITLEANDSUBTITLE 5a.CONTRACTNUMBER
1977AnnualTyphoonReport 5b.GRANTNUMBER
Unclassified
5c.PROGRAMELEMENTNUMBER
6.AUTHOR(S) 5d.PROJECTNUMBER
Morford,DeanR.; 5e.TASKNUMBER
Lavin,JamesK.;
5f.WORKUNITNUMBER
7.PERFORMINGORGANIZATIONNAMEANDADDRESS 8.PERFORMINGORGANIZATIONREPORT
JointTyphoonWarningCenter NUMBER
425LuapeleRoad
PearlHarbor,HI96860-3103
9.SPONSORING/MONITORINGAGENCYNAMEANDADDRESS 10.SPONSOR/MONITOR'SACRONYM(S)
NavalPacificMeteorologyandOceanographyCenter 11.SPONSOR/MONITOR'SREPORT
JoingTyphoonWarningCenter NUMBER(S)
425LuapeleRoad
PearlHarbor,HI96860-3103
12.DISTRIBUTION/AVAILABILITYSTATEMENT
APUBLICRELEASE
,
13.SUPPLEMENTARYNOTES
SeeAlsoADM001257,2000AnnualTropicalCycloneReportJoingTyphoonWarningCenter(CDincludes1959-1999ATCRs).Block1and
Block3shouldbe1977.
14.ABSTRACT
TheAnnualTyphoonReportsummarizesthetropicalcyclonesoccurringduring1977inthewesternNorthPacific,theCentralNorthPacific
andtheNorthIndianOceans.
15.SUBJECTTERMS
16.SECURITYCLASSIFICATIONOF: 17.LIMITATION 18. 19.NAMEOFRESPONSIBLEPERSON
OFABSTRACT NUMBER Fenster,Lynn
PublicRelease [email protected]
134
a.REPORT b.ABSTRACT c.THISPAGE 19b.TELEPHONENUMBER
Unclassified Unclassified Unclassified InternationalAreaCode
AreaCodeTelephoneNumber
703767-9007
DSN
427-9007
StandardForm298(Rev.8-98)
PrescribedbyANSIStdZ39.18
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Pacific Area (Dateline to Malay Peninsula)
Indian Ocean Area (Malay Peninsulato Africa)
AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY -
JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER,GUAM
.
U. S. FLEET WEATHER CENTRAL
JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER
COMNAVMARIANAS BOX 17
FPO SAN FRANCKCO 96630
DEAN R. MORFORD
Captain, United States Navy
COMMANDING
JAMES K. LAVIN
Lieutenant Colonel, United States Air Force
DIRECTOR, JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER
STAFF
LCDR David Sokol, USN
LCDR Carl B. Ihli, Jr., USN
LT Gary R. Willms, USN
*LT George T. McKaige, USN
*CAPT Frederick P. Milwer, USAF
CAPT Alan W. Hassebrock, USAF
CAPT Charles P. Guard, USAF
CAPT”John D. Shewchuk, USAF
ENS Edward M. Fukada, USNR
MSGT Hans J. Hassl, USAF
*SSGT Ellis D. Spencer, USAF
SSGT ‘BobbyL. Setliff, USAF
*AG2 Greg P. Metzger, USN
*AG2 Robert L. Hem, Jr., USN
*AG2 Susan J. Funk, USN
AG2 Andree S. Webster, USN
SGT Paul D. Edwards, USAF
*AG3 Deirdre A. Wexler, USN
*SRA Craig A. Anderson, USAF
SRA Vandora A. Ba’rnes,USAF
AGAN Kenneth A. Kellogg, USN
AGAN John A. Kilburn, USN
AGAN Karen F. Moorefield, USN
Ms. Marcelina L. G. Aguon, Secretary
CONTRIBUTOR
Det 1, lWW - USAF
1977
ANNUAL TYPHOON REPORT
*Departed during 1977 season
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ii
Tropical cyclones have always been a men- 4. Conduct an annual post analysis
ace to both milita~y and civilian activities of all tropical cyclones occurring within the
in tropical and subtropical oceanic regions. area north of the equator from 140W west to
During recent times, much effort has been fun- the coast of Africa and prepare an Annual Ty-
neled toward more accurate tropical cyclone phoon Report for issuance to interested agen-
forecasts and toward more efficient operation- cies; and
al responses to those forecasts. A large por-
tion of this effort is based on studies which, 5. Conduct tropical cyclone fore-
if meaningful, must be based on accurately casting and detection research as practicable.
documented data. The Annual Typhoon Report
revresents such documentation. he body of In the event of incapacitation of the
this report is a summary of the tropical cy- JTWC, the alternate (AJTWC) assumes the re-
clones that occurred during 1977 in the west- sponsibility for the issuance of warnings.
ern North Pacific, central North Pacific and In early November, 1977, Fleet Weather Cen-
North Indian Oceans. tral, Pearl Harbor, Hawaii was designated as
the AJTWC. Assistance in determining tropi-
The Annual Typhoon Report is prepared by cal cyclone reconnaissance requirements and
the staff of the Joint Typhoon Warning Center in obtaining reconnaissance data is provided
(JTWC). JTWC is a combined USAF/USN entity by Detachment 4, 1st Weather Wing, Hickam AFB,
operating under the command of Fleet Weather Hawaii. Previously, the AJTWC designate was
Central, Guam. The senior Air Force officer Detachment 17, 30WS, Yokota AB, Japan, with
assigned is designated as Director, JTWC and assistance from the Naval Weather Service
is responsible to the Commanding Officer, Facility, Yokosuka, Japan.
Fleet Weather Central, Guam for the operation
of the JTWC. The senior Naval officer of the The Central Pacific Hurricane Center,
JTWC is designated as the Deputy Director/Op- (CPHC) Honolulu, Hawaii is manned by members
erations Officer. JTWC was established by of the U. S. National Weather Service who
CINCPACFLT message 280208Z April 1959 when are responsible for the issuance of tropical
directed by CINCPAC message Z30233Z April cyclone warnings for the area north of the
1959. Its operation is guided by the CINCPAC equator from the Date Line east to 140W.
INST 3140.1 (series). Warnings are issued in coordination with the
Fleet Weather Central, Pearl Harbor and De-
The Fleet Weather Central/Joint Typhoon tachment 4, lWW, Hickam AFB, Hawaii. Post
Warning Center, Guam has the responsibility analysis information is forwarded to the
to: JTWC for inclusion in the Annual Typhoon
Report.
1. Provide continuous meteorologi-
cal watch of all tropical activity north of The meteorological services of the
the equator, west of the Date Line, and east United States are planning to implement the
of the African coast (JTWC area of responsi- metric system of measurement over the next
bility) for potential tropical cyclone devel- few years. Some civilian and military agen-
opment; cies have started the education program by
showing the metric equivalents to current
2. Provide warnings for all tropi- units of measure. This Annual Typhoon Report
cal cyclones in the assigned area of responsi- includes metric equivalents to most measures.
bility;
Unless otherwise stated all satellite
3. Determine tropical cyclone re- data used in this ATR is Air Force Weather
connaissance requirements and assign priori- Service DMSP Data as acquired by OL-C, 27CS
ties; personnel and analyzed by Det 1, lWW person-
nel colocated with JTWC at Nimitz Hill, Guam.
iii
TABLE OF CONTENTS
CHAPTER I OPERATIONAL PROCEDURES pafe
1. General---------------------------------------------------
2. Data Sources---------------------------------------------- 1
3. Analyses-------------------------------------------------- 1
4. Forecast Aids--------------------------------------------- 1
5. Forecasting Procedures------------------------------------ 2
6. Warnings-------------------------------------------------- 2
7. Prognostic Reasoning Message------------------------------ 2
Significant Tropical Weather Advisory---------------------- 3
:: Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert-------------------------- 3
CHAPTER II RECONNAISSANCE AND COMMUNICATIONS
1. General--------------------------------------------------- 4
2. Reconnaissance-------------------------------------------- 4
Aircraft Reconnaissance Evaluation Criteria--------------- 4
:: Aircraft Reconnaissance Summar-y--------------- ----------- 5
Satellite Reconnaissance Summary-------------------------- >>
:: Radar Reconnaissance Summary------------------------------ :
7. Communications-------------------------------------------- 7
CHAPTER III RESEARCH SUMMARY
2 General--------------------------------------------------- 8
Operational Application of a Tropical Cyclone
Recurvature/Non-Recurvature Study Based on 200 MB
Wind Fields----------------------------------------------- 8
3. Tropical Cyclone Center Fix Data for the 1976 Storm
Season---------------------------------------------------- 8
4. Evaluation of the Dvorak IR Technique for Use With
DMSP Data------------------------------------------------- 8
5. A Climatology of Tropical Cyclones for the Period
1971-1976------------------------------------------------- 8
6. Relationships Between the Temporal Variation of
Equivalent Potential Temperature and Tropical
Cyclone Intensity----------------------------------------- 8
7. Transitioning of Tropical Cyclones to Extratropical
Cyclones-------------------------------------------------- 8
8. Future Aircraft Reconnaissance Storm Tracks--------------- 8
9. Tropical Chart Series for September 1975------------------ 9
10. Tropical Weather Study Guide------------------------------ 9
CHAPTER IV SUMMARY OF TROPICAL CYCLONES
1. Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclones------------------- 10
Individual Typhoons
p:se p~ae
Typhoon Sarah------- Typhoon Ivy---------
Typhoon Thelma------ 21 Typhoon Jean--------
Typhoon Vera-------- 23 Typhoon Kim--------- :;
Typhoon Babe-------- 27 Typhoon Lucy-------- 45
Typhoon Dinah------- 30 Typhoon Mary-------- 48
Typhoon Gilda------- 33
2. North Indian Ocean Tropical Cyclones---------------------- 51
Individual Cyclone
p;~e
TC 22-77------------
3. Central North Pacific Tropical Cyclones------------------- 55
CHAPTER V SUMMARY OF FORECAST VERIFICATION DATA
1. Annual Forecast Verification------------------------------ 56
2. Comparison of Obiective Techniques------------------------ 59
3. Evacuation of th~ Tropical Cycione Model (TCM)------------ 62
4. Pacific Area Tropical Storm and Depression Data----------- 64
Pacific Area Typhoon Data--------------------------------- 69
:: Indian Ocean Area Cyclone Data---------------------------- 77
iv
CHAPTER VI TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER FIX DATA p~~e
1. Introduction----------------------------------------------
2. Format---------------------------------------------------- 80
Western North Pacific Fix Data----------------------------
:: North Indian Ocean Fix Data------------------------------- 1::
APPENDIX CONTRACTIONS AND DEFINITIONS
1. Contractions---------------------------------------------- 121
2. Definitions----------------------------------------------- 122
DISTRIBUTION 123
v
CHAPTER I - OPERATIONAL PROCEDURES
1. GENERAL d. SATELLITE RECONNAISSANCE:
Routine services provided by the Joint Meteorological satellite data from
Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) include the the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program
following: (1) Significant Tropical Weather (DMSP) and the National Oceanic and Atmo-
Advisories issued daily describing all trop- spheric Administration played a major role in
ical disturbances and their potential for the early detection and tracking of tropical
further development; (2) Tropical Cyclone cyclones in 1977. A discussion of this role,
Formation Alerts issued whenever interpre- as well as aDulications of satellite data to
tation of satellite and synoptic data indi- tropical cycibne analysis and forecasting, is
cates likely formation of a significant trop- presented in Chapter II.
ical cyclone; (3) Tropical Cyclone Warnings
issued four times daily whenever a significant e. RADAR RECONNAISSANCE:
tropical cyclone exists in the Pacific area;
(4) Tropical Cyclone Warnings issued twice During 1977, as in recent years,
daily whenever a significant tropical cyclone land radar coverage was utilized extensive Y
exists in the Indian Ocean area; and (5) when available. Once a storm moved within the
Prognostic Reasoning messages issued twice range of a l“andradar site, reports were
daily for tropical storms and typhoons in the usually received hourly. Use of radar dur:ng
Pacific area. 1977 is discussed in Chapter II.
JTWC responds to changing requirements of 3. ANALYSIS
activities serviced. Therefore, contents of
routine services are subject to change from A composite surface/gradient level (3000
year to year usually as a result of the Annual ft) manual analysis is accomplished on the
Tropical Cyclone Conference deliberations. 0000Z and 1200Z conventional data. Analysis
of the wind field using streamlines is
2. DATA SOURCES stressed for tropical and subtropical regions.
Analysis of the pressure field is stressed for
a. COMPUTER PRODUCTS: higher latitudes and vicinity of intense trop-
ical systems.
FLEWEACEN Guam provides computerized
meteorological/oceanographic products for Manual analysis of the S00 mb level is
JTWC. In addition, the standard array of accomplished on the 0000Z and 1200Z data when
synoptic-scale computer analyses and prog- significant tropical cyclones exist. Although
nostic charts are available from the Fleet the analysis of the 500 mb height field is
Numerical Weather Central (FNWC) at Monterey, stressed, analysis of the wind field to more
California via FLEWEACEN Guam. clearly delineate steering currents is equally
important.
b. CONVENTIONAL DATA:
A composite upper-tropospheric, manual
Conventional meteorological data are analysis, utilizing rawinsonde data from 300
defined as surface and upper air observations mb through 100 mb, wind directions extracted
from island, ship and land stations plus from satellite data by Det 1, lWW and AIREPS
weather observations from commercial and mil- (plus or minus 6 hours) at or above 29,000
itary aircraft (AIREPS). Computer plotted feet is accomplished on 0000Z and 1200Z data
charts of 0000Z and 1200Z conventional data daily. Wind and height data are used to
are produced daily for the surface, 850 mb, arrive at a representative analysis of trop-
700 mb, and 500 mb levels. A chart of upper ical cyclone outflow patterns, of steering
air data is produced which utilizes 200 mb currents, and of areas that may indicate trop-
rawinsonde data and AIREPS above 29,000 ft ical cyclone intensity change.
within 6 hours of the 0000Z and 1200Z synoptic
times. The surface/gradient, 500 mb and 200 Additional sectional charts at interme-
mb level charts are hand plotted over impor- diate synoptic times and auxiliary charts
tant tropical/subtropical regions during the such as checkerboard diagrams and pressure
tropical cyclone season to complement computer change charts are also analyzed during periods
aids and insure all available data are used. of significant tropical cyclone activity.
c. AIRCRAFT RECONNAISSANCE: 4. FO”RECAST AIDS
Aircraft weather reconnaissance data a. CLIMATOLOGY:
are invaluable in the positioning of centers
of developing systems and essential for the Climatological publications utilized
accurate determination of the eye/center, max- during the 1977 typhoon season include pre-
imum intensity, minimum sea-level pressure, vious JTWC Annual Typhoon Reports and climatic
and radius of significant winds exhibited by publications from Fleet Weather Central, Guam,
tropical cyclones. These data are plotted on Director Naval Oceanography and Meteorology,
large-scale sectional charts for each mission Naval Weather Research Facility, Naval Envi-
flown. A comprehensive discussion of aircraft ronmental Prediction Research Facility, Naval
weather reconnaissance is presented in Chapter Postgraduate School, Air Weather Service,
II. First Weather Wing and Chanute Technical
Training Center, plus publications from other (4) A final check is made against
Air Force and Navy activities, various univer- climatology to ascertain the likelihood of
sities and foreign countries. the forecast track. If the forecast deviates
greatly from climatology, the forecast ration-
b. OBJECTIVE TECHNIQUES: ale is reappraised and the track adjusted as
necessary.
The following objective techniques
were employed in tropical cyclone forecasting c. INTENSITY FORECASTING:
during 1977. A description and an evaluation
of these techniques is presented in Chapter V: In forecasting intensity, heavy re-
liance is placed on aircraft reconnaissance
(11 TYFN75 reports, the Dvorak satellite interpretation
~2j MOHATT 700/500 model, and the objective techniques. Addi-
(3) FCSTINT tional considerations are the position and
(4) 12-HR EXTRAPOLATION intensity of the tropical upper-tropospheric
(5) HPAC trough, extent and intensity of upper-level
(6) TROPICAL CYCLONE MODEL outflow, sea surface temperature, terrain
(7) INJAH74 influences, speed of movement, and proximity
to an extratropical environment.
5. FORECASTING PROCEDURES 6. WARNINGS
a. INITIALIZATION: Tropical cyclone warnings are numbered
sequentially. If warnings are discontinued
In the preparation of each warning, and the storm reintensifies, warnings are
the actual surface location (fix) of the trop- numbered consecutively from the last warning
ical cyclone eye/center just prior to (within issued. Amended or corrected warnings are
three hours of) warning time is of prime im- given the same number as the warnings they
portance. JTWC uses the Selective Reconnais- modify plus a sequential alphabetical desig-
sance Program (SRP) to levy an optimum mix of nator. Each warning includes the initial
aircraft, satellite and radar resources to warning time eye/center position, intensity,
obtain fix information. When tropical cy- and the radial extent of 30, 50 and 100 kt
clones are either poorly defined or the actual surface winds (when applicable); the latest
surface location can not be determined but an fix position used; the 12 hr forecast direc-
upper level position is available, or when tion and speed of movement; and, forecast
conflicting fix information is received, the information. Warnings within the JTWC Pacific
“best estimate” of the surface location is Area are issued within two hours of OOOOZ,
subjectively determined from the analysis of 0600z, 1200Z and 1800Z with the constraint
all available data. If fix data is not avail- that two consecutive warnings may not be moTe
able due to reconnaissance platform malfunc- than seven hours apart. This variable warning
tions or communication problems, synoptic time allows for maximum use of all available
data or extrapolation from previous fixes is reconnaissance platforms and spreads the work-
used. The initial forecast (warning time) load in multiple storm situations. The fore-
position is then obtained by extrapolation cast intervals for all tropical cyclones,
using the current fix and a “best track” of regardless of intensity, are 12-, 24-, 48-
the cyclone movement to date. and 72-hr.
b. TRACK FORECASTING: Warnings in the JTWC Indian Ocean area
are issued within two hours of 0800Z and 20002
An initial forecast track is devel- with the constraint that two consecutive warn-
oped based on persistence, climatology and ings may not be more than fourteen hours apart.
objective techniques. This initial track is Warnings for this area are issued only after a
subjectively modified based on the following: tropical cyclone has attained an intensity of
34 kt or greater. Forecast intervals are 24
(1) The prospects for recurvature and 48 hours.
are evaluated for all westward and northward
moving storms. This evaluation is based pri- Warning forecast positions are verified
marily on present and forecast position and against the corresponding post analysis “best
amplitude of middle tropospheric mid-latitude track” positions. A summary of the verifi-
troughs from the latest 500 mb analysis and cation results for 1977 is presented in
numerical prognoses. Chapter V.
(2) Determination of steering level 7. PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE
is partly influenced by maturity and vertical
extent of the system. For mature storms lo- In the Pacific Area, prognostic reasoning
cated south of the 500 mb subtropical ridge, messages are transmitted based on the 00002
forecast changes in speed of movement are and 1200Z warnings or whenever the previous
closely correlated with forecast changes in reasoning is no longer valid. This plain
the intensity of the ridge. When steering language message is intended to provide field
currents are very weak, the tendency for meteorologists with the reasoning behind the
~torms to move northward due to their internal latest JTWC forecast. Prognostic reasoning
forces is an important consideration. messages are not prepared for tropical depres-
sions nor for the Indian Ocean area.
(3) Over the 12- to 72-hr forecast
spectrum, speed of movement during the early This season JTWC began including confi-
time frame is biased toward persistence (12 hr dence statements for the 24 hr forecasts. A
extrapolation] while that near the end of the summary of the verification results is pre-
time frame is biased towaTds objective tech- sented in Chapter V.
niques and climatology.
2