DTIC ADA371841: Staffing At-Risk School Districts in Texas: Problems and Prospects,

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by  Defense Technical Information Center

STAFFING
ÄT-RISK
SCHOOL
DISTRICTS
IN TEXAS
Problems and Prospects
SHEILA NATARAJ KJRBY
SCOTT NAFTEL
MARK BERENDS
STAFFING
ÄT-RISK
SCHOOL
DISTRICTS
IN TEXAS
Problems and Prospects
SHEILA NATARAJ KIRBY
SCOTT NAFTEL
MARK BERENDS
Supported by the
U.S. Department of Education
RAND
EDUCATION
DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT A
Approved for Public Release
Distribution Unlimited
The research reported here was supported by the U.S. Department of
Education, Office of Educational Research and Improvement's Field
Initiated Studies Grant Program under Grant No. R306F60175.
library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
Kirby, Sheila Nataraj, 1946-
Staffing at-risk school districts in Texas : problems and prospects /
Sheila Nataraj Kirby, Scott Naftel, Mark Berends.
p. cm.
"MR-1083-EDU."
Includes bibliographical references.
ISBN 0-8330-2760-3
1. Minority teachers—Supply and demand—Texas longitudinal
studies. 2. Children of minorities—Education—Texas
longitudinal studies. I. Naftel, Scott, 1952- . II. Berends,
Mark, 1962- . III. RAND Corporation. IV Title.
LB2833.3.T4K57 1999
331.12 ' 313711' 009764—dc21 99-39615
CIP
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PREFACE
The research reported here was supported by Grant No. R306F60175
from the U.S. Department of Education, Office of Educational Re-
search and Improvement's Field Initiated Studies Grant Program.
Teacher supply and demand issues are of critical importance as our
society enters the 21st century. Over the next decade, we will need
about two million new teachers, largely because of a dramatic in-
crease in enrollments and high attrition rates as an aging teacher
workforce becomes eligible for retirement. It is important to under-
stand where these teachers will come from and where they will teach
as our society faces increasing racial, ethnic, and linguistic diversity.
Amidst this diversity is a continuing concern that some racial/ethnic
groups are disproportionately placed at risk. The larger project fo-
cuses on teachers of at-risk children, with special emphasis on the
supply and demand patterns of minority teachers, who tend to be
the ones primarily teaching in high-risk districts. This report ana-
lyzes longitudinal data on teachers from Texas between 1979 and
1996 to address this issue. Our results show that although Texas has
been successful in attracting minority teachers, it has a long way to
go in attaining the goal of the Texas State Board of Education: to
have a teacher workforce that reflects the racial/ethnic composition
of the state. These results should be of interest to researchers and
policymakers dealing with issues of teacher supply and demand, par-
ticularly with respect to minority teachers.
CONTENTS
Preface iii
Figures vii
Tables xi
Summary xiii
Acknowledgments xix
Chapter One
INTRODUCTION 1
Staffing At-Risk Districts 2
Research Questions 4
Rationale for Selecting Texas as the Focus of Study 4
Availability of Longitudinal Teacher and District Data.. 5
High Representation of Minorities in the Teaching
Force 5
Commitment to Increased Diversity in the Teaching
Force 5
What This Report Does and Does Not Do 6
Organization of the Report 7
Chapter Two
STUDENTS AND TEACHERS IN AT-RISK SETTINGS 9
Defining "At-Risk" 9
Students in At-Risk Districts 12
Trends in Student Enrollment 12
Increase in the Number of At-Risk Districts 13
Demographic Composition 16
Who's Teaching in High-Risk Districts? 16
vi Staffing At-Risk School Districts in Texas: Problems and Prospects
Chapter Three
COMPONENTS OF TEACHER SUPPLY . 19
All Teachers 20
Sources of Supply 23
Continuing Teachers 23
NewTeachers 24
Who Is in the Teacher Pipeline? 26
Other Sources of Supply 28
Teachers in At-Risk Districts • • • • 29
Chapter Four
COMPONENTS OF TEACHER DEMAND 35
Changes in Student Enrollment 35
Patterns of Attrition 36
Demand for NewTeacher Hires 38
Patterns of Attrition: NewTeachers 39
Methodology 39
Results 41
Median Survival Times for Selected Groups of
Teachers 51
Chapter Five
CONCLUSIONS AND POLICY IMPLICATIONS 63
Appendix
A. Resources and Working Conditions in Low-, Medium-,
and High-Risk Districts 67
B. Results of Multivariate Models Based on Teacher
Characteristics, 1980-81 to 1995-96. 75
REFERENCES • 79
FIGURES
5.1. Racial/Ethnic Composition of Students in Low-,
Medium-, and High-Risk Districts, 1995-96 xv
5.2. Race/Ethnicity of Teachers in Low-, Medium-, and
High-Risk Districts, 1995-96 xvi
2.1. Percentage of Students Passing All Achievement
Tests, in Low-, Medium-, and High-Risk Districts,
1995-96 11
2.2. Racial/Ethnic Composition of Students, 1980-81 to
1995-96 13
2.3. Number of Low-, Medium-, and High-Risk Districts,
1984-85 to 1995-96 14
2.4. Student Enrollment in Low-, Medium-, and High-Risk
Districts, 1984-85 to 1995-96 14
2.5. Percentage of Students Economically Disadvantaged
in Different Types of Communities, 1990-91 and
1995-96 15
2.6. Racial/Ethnic Composition of Students in Low-,
Medium-, and High-Risk Districts, 1995-96 16
2.7. Racial/Ethnic Composition of Teachers in Low-,
Medium-, and High-Risk Districts, 1995-96 17
3.1. Number of Full-Time Teachers in Texas, 1980-81 to
1995-96 20
3.2. Black/Hispanic Teachers as a Proportion of All
Teachers, 1980-81 to 1995-96 22
3.3. Black/Hispanic Teachers as a Proportion of New
Teachers, 1980-81 to 1995-96 26
3.4. Teachers with Permits in Low-, Medium-, and High-
Risk Districts, 1989-90 and 1995-96 31
viii Staffing At-Risk School Districts in Texas: Problems and Prospects
3.5. New Teachers Without a Degree in Low-, Medium-,
and High-Risk Districts, 1987-88 to 1995-96 32
3.6. Teachers with Fewer Than Five Years of Experience in
Low-, Medium-, and High-Risk Districts, 1995-96 ... 33
4.1. Annual Attrition, All Teachers, 1980-81 to 1995-96 ... 36
4.2. Annual Attrition by Age of Teachers, Selected Years .. 37
4.3. Total Number of New Hires and New Teachers,
1980-81 to 1995-96 38
4.4. Cumulative Attrition from Teaching, Combined
Cohorts 42
4.5. Annual Attrition from Teaching, by Entry Cohort 43
4.6. Annual Attrition from Teaching of Combined Cohorts,
by Age atEntry 44
4.7. Annual Attrition from Teaching of Combined Cohorts,
by Subject Area 45
4.8. Cumulative Attrition from Teaching of Combined
Cohorts, by Gender: Non-Hispanic White
Teachers 47
4.9. Cumulative Attrition from Teaching of Combined
Cohorts, by Gender: Black Teachers 47
4.10. Cumulative Attrition from Teaching of Combined
Cohorts, by Gender: Hispanic Teachers 48
4.11. Annual Attrition from Teaching of Non-Hispanic
White Teachers, Grouped Entry Cohorts 50
4.12. Annual Attrition from Teaching of Black Teachers,
Grouped Entry Cohorts 50
4.13. Annual Attrition from Teaching of Hispanic Teachers,
Grouped Entry Cohorts 51
4.14. Annual Attrition from Teaching of Combined Cohorts
in Low-, Medium-, and High-Risk Districts 52
A. 1. Taxable Property Value per Pupil in Low-, Medium-,
and High-Risk Districts, 1995-96 68
A.2. Sources of Total Revenue per Pupil in Low-, Medium-,
and High-Risk Districts, 1995-96 68
A.3. Instructional Expenditures per Pupil in Low-,
Medium-, and High-Risk Districts, 1995-96 69
A.4. Percentage of Instructional Expenditures on Bilingual
and Compensatory Programs in Low-, Medium-, and
High-Risk Districts, 1995-96 70
Figures ix
A.5. New Teacher Salaries in Low-, Medium-, and High-
Risk Districts, 1980-81 to 1995-96 71
A.6. Student/Teacher Ratios in Low-, Medium-, and
High-Risk Districts, 1995-96 72
A.7. Teachers and Aides as a Percentage of Total District
Staff in Low-, Medium-, and High-Risk Districts,
1995-96 73
TABLES
3.1. Profile of Texas Teachers, by Selected Characteristics
and Years 21
3.2. Profile of New Teachers, by Selected Characteristics
and Years 25
4.1. Median Survival Time in Years for Selected Groups . . 52
4.2. Means and Standard Deviations of Analysis Variables,
1987-88 to 1995-96 55
4.3. Multiplicative Factor Estimates for Cox Regression on
Time to Attrition from Teaching, with District Vari-
ables, 1987-88 to 1995-96 56
4.4. Multiplicative Factor Estimates for Cox Regression on
Time to Attrition from Teaching, with Race/Ethnicity
and Risk Interactions, 1987-88 to 1995-96 59
4.5. Multiplicative Factor Estimates for Cox Regression on
Time to Attrition from Teaching, with Race/Ethnicity
and Gender Interactions, 1987-88 to 1995-96 60
B.l. Means of Analysis Variables, 1980-81 to 1995-96 76
B.2. Multiplicative Factor Estimates for Cox Regression
on Time to Attrition from Teaching, 1980-81 to
1995-96 77