DTIC ADA348214: Air Quality Cumulative Effects Assessment for U.S. Air Force Bases.

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AIR QUALITY CUMULATIVE EFFECTS ASSESSMENT FOR U.S. AIR FORCE
BASES
6. AUTHOR(S)
Jeffrey N. Rumrill
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University of Oklahoma REPORT NUMBER
98-009D
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UNIVERSITY OF OKLAHOMA
GRADUATE COLLEGE
AIR QUALITY CUMULATIVE EFFECTS ASSESSMENT
FOR U.S. AIR FORCE BASES
A Dissertation
SUBMITTED TO THE GRADUATE FACULTY
in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the
degree of
Doctor of Philosophy
By
JEFFREY N. RUMRILL
Norman, Oklahoma
1998
DTIC QUALITY INSPECTED 1
AIR QUALITY CUMULATIVE EFFECTS ASSESSMENT
FOR U.S. AIR FORCE BASES
A Dissertation APPROVED FOR THE
SCHOOL OF CIVIL ENGINEERING AND ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE
BY
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© Copyright by JEFFREY N. RUMRILL 1998
All Rights Reserved
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
Several have aided me in my efforts to complete this program. However, a few
deserve special recognition for their contributions.
First, I wish to thank my advisor, Dr. Larry Canter, for his guidance,
encouragement, and unending support throughout this study program.
I also wish to thank the members of my committee, Dr. Richard Anderson, Dr. Jess
Everett, Dr. Mark Meo, Dr. Deborah Nelson, and Dr. Murray Tabb. Each has graciously
contributed their time and energies toward the enhancement of my education.
A special thank you goes to Dallas Tomlinson for his tremendous assistance with
data collection.
I thank God for the opportunities, friends, and family He has given me. Without
His support, I would accomplish nothing of value.
Finally, I wish to thank my family. Specifically, I thank Sheryl for her loving
support and encouragement and I thank Nathan and Josh for their smiles, cheer, and
patience.
IV
Table of Contents
Acknowledgments iv
List of Tables ix
List of Figures xi
Dissertation Overview xii
Abstract xiii
Chapter 1: Introduction and Literature Review 1
Introduction 1
Problem Statement 1
Research Objective 1
Research Study Components 2
EA and EIS Review 2
RFFAs 3
Air Quality Modeling 3
Significance Determination 4
CEA Method Application 4
Dissertation Format 5
Literature Review 7
NEPA Requirements 7
State and Other Nation Requirements 9
Defining Cumulative Effects 11
Definition Controversy 11
Application Controversy 13
Methods and Approaches for CEA 14
Background and Need 14
Analysis Frameworks 19
Project Focused Analysis 20
Resource Protection Focused Analysis 26
Regional and City Planning in a CEA Framework 32
Air Quality Focused CEA 33
USAF Requirements for CEA 34
Conformity Requirements 40
Significance Determination 41
Conclusions from Literature Review 49
References 50
Chapter 2: Air Quality Effects in NEPA Documents-
Project Specific and Cumulative Considerations 55
Abstract 55
Background 55
Approach Used in Review 64
Results of Review 68
Project Specific Air Quality Assessment 68
Cumulative Effects Assessment 77
Air Quality and CEA Linkages 82
Comparison to Related Study 86
Lessons Learned and Proposed Method 88
References 93
Chapter 3: Addressing Future Actions in Cumulative Effects Assessment 95
Abstract 95
Background 95
Analysis of Court Cases 97
Formal vs. Informal Proposals 97
Reasonably Foreseeable or Speculative 101
Connected Actions 107
Proposal Intent and Geographic Connections 109
Resource Connections 112
Planning Relationships 114
Elements of an Adequate CEA Discussion 117
Existing RFFA Determination Methods 118
A Proposed Conservative Determination Method 121
Conclusions 125
References 126
Chapter 4: Air Quality Cumulative Effects Assessment-
Selection of Quantification Models 130
Abstract 130
Background 130
Modeling Needs in CEA - Qualitative Decision Criteria 132
Air Quality Modeling 135
Model Classifications 135
Regulatory Requirements 135
Model Uncertainty and Error 141
Model Validation/Calibration 144
Software Applicability 145
Air Quality Models for CEA 147
Qualitative Comparison Results 147
Simple Area Source Models 147
Rollback Models 150
VI
Box Models 152
Discussion and Conclusions 154
References 156
Chapter 5: Significance Determination for Cumulative Air Quality Effects 158
Abstract 158
Introduction 158
Project-Level Impact Significance 160
Regulatory Guidance 160
Court Decisions and Interpretations 162
Methods and Approaches 163
Air Quality Significance Determination 171
Uncertainty Considerations 173
Air Quality CEA Significance Determination Factors 177
Pollutant Emissions and Ambient Air Quality Standards 179
Public Participation 180
Secondary/Indirect/Synergistic Effects 180
Health Effects 182
Mitigation •. 182
Project Concerns vs. Cumulative Concerns 184
Air Quality CEA Significance Scoring Procedure 184
Cumulative Air Quality Effect Mitigation 191
Conclusions 194
References 194
Chapter 6: Air Quality Cumulative Effects Assessment—
A Practical Example 197
Abstract 197
Introduction 197
Step 1 - Definition Selection 200
Step 2 - Boundary Determinations 201
Step 3 - Activities to Evaluate 203
Step 4 - Baseline Ambient Air Quality Determinations 207
Step 5 - Emissions Estimates 208
Annual Summaries 209
Operational Activities - Major Sources 211
Operational Activities - Vehicles 212
Operational Activities - Aircraft 213
Construction Activities - Source Categories 214
Construction Activities - Pavements 215
Step 6 - Determining the Change in Air Quality 216
Emission Levels 217
Ambient Concentrations 224
Step 7 - Significance Determination 230
vii
Step 8 - Mitigation Opportunities 236
Observations and Conclusions 237
References 239
Chapter 7: Summary, Recommendations, and Conclusions 242
Research Summary 242
Problem Issues and Recommendations 245
Conclusions 247
Appendices
Appendix A (Supplement to Chapter 4): Air Quality Model Classifications 249
Appendix B (Supplement to Chapter 4): Multimedia Transport and Fate
Modeling 276
Appendix C (Supplement to Chapter 5): Cumulative Air Quality Significance
Factor Determination Contributors 281
Appendix D (Supplement to Chapter 6): Air Quality Cumulative Effects
Assessment Application to A United
States Air Force Base 283
vin
List of Tables
Table Page
Table 1.1: Synoptic Assessment Steps and Substeps (after Liebowitz et al., 29
1992)
Table 1.2: Categories of Cumulative Effects Issues (after Kansas et al., 1994) 35
Table 1.3: Conformity Determination Requirement Rates for Nonattainment 42
Areas (after 40 CFR 93.153)
Table 1.4: Conformity Determination Requirement Rates for Maintenance 43
Areas (after 40 CFR 93.153)
Table 1.5: Sources of Institutional Recognition (adapted from Apogee 46
Research Inc., 1995)
Table 1.6: Issues for Intensity Evaluation (after Canter and Canty, 1993) 48
Table 2.1: A 6-Step Project-Specific Air Quality Effects Assessment Model 61
(after Canter, 1996)
Table 2.2 U.S. Air Force EIS Statistics (from Council on Environmental 63
Quality, 1997b)
Table 2.3: Types of Actions Addressed by EISs and EAs in the Sample Group 65
Table 2.4: Statistical Summary of Project Specific Air Quality Effects 69
Evaluation
Table 2.5: Air Quality Model Usage for Project Specific Effects 71
Table 2.6: Emission Estimates Related to Action Type 72
Table 2.7: Approaches for handling Uncertainty (after De Jongh, 1988) 75
Table 2.8: Statistical Summary of Cumulative Effects Evaluation in the Study 78
Group
Table 2.9: Summary Statistics of Treatment of Air Quality-Related 83
Cumulative Effects
Table 2.10: EISs and EAs (separated by type of action) that Met Three 85
Cumulative Effects Assessment Criteria
Table 2.11: Comparison Statistics Between this Study of USAF NEPA 87
Documents and the Study on 89 EAs Conducted by McCold and
Holman(1995)
Table 2.12: Proposed Steps for Cumulative Air Quality Effects Assessment 91
(CAQEA)
Table 2.13: Comparison between Canter's 6-Step Project-Specific Model and 92
the Proposed 8-Steps for CAQEA
Table 3.1: Summary of Court Cases Related to Formal v. Informal Proposals 102
Table 3.2: Summary of Court Cases Related to Reasonably Foreseeable v. 103
Speculative Actions
Table 3.3: Summary of Court Cases Related to Connectedness of Actions 108
Table 3.4: Summary of Court Cases Related to Planning Relationships 115
Table 3.5: Legal Issue Linkages to 8-Step Method 123
Table 4.1: Description of Major Air Quality Model Classifications 137
ix